2018 Florida gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2018 Florida gubernatorial election
Country:Florida
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Turnout:62.6%12.1[1] [2]
Previous Election:2014 Florida gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2022 Florida gubernatorial election
Next Year:2022
Image1:File:Gov Ron DeSantis Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ron DeSantis
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Jeanette Nuñez
Popular Vote1:4,076,186
Percentage1:49.59%
Nominee2:Andrew Gillum
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Chris King
Popular Vote2:4,043,723
Percentage2:49.19%
Governor
Before Election:Rick Scott
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ron DeSantis
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 Florida gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Florida, alongside an election to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent two-term Republican Governor Rick Scott was term-limited and could not run for a third term, and he successfully ran for Florida's Class I Senate seat.

Republican U.S. representative Ron DeSantis narrowly defeated Democratic mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum for the governorship, in what some considered an upset. The candidate filing deadline was June 22, 2018, and primary elections were held on August 28. Florida uses a closed primary process, in which the selection of each party's candidates for a general election is limited to registered members of that party;[3] Gillum won the Democratic primary and DeSantis the Republican primary.[4]

The close margin mandated a machine recount, which had a deadline of November 15, 2018. After the recount was complete, DeSantis was certified as the winner. Gillum conceded on November 17. DeSantis's victory marked the sixth straight election in which Florida elected a Republican to the governorship, and the third in a row that neither candidate received over 50% of the vote. With a margin of 0.4%, this election was the closest race of the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle. Gillum became the first Democrat to win Duval County since 1986 and Seminole County since 1990, while DeSantis became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win Jefferson County since 1884.

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran
Ron
DeSantis
Jack
Latvala
Adam
Putnam
Bob
White
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing[39] August 21–25, 2018579± 4.1% align=center39%27%6%4%23%
St. Pete Polls[40] August 22–23, 20182,141± 2.1% align=center56%33%3%8%
Gravis Marketing[41] August 21–22, 2018321± 5.5% align=center39%24%6%4%26%
Florida Atlantic University[42] August 16–20, 2018222± 6.5% align=center32%31%2%13%22%
Saint Leo University[43] August 10–16, 201817241% align=center52%5%
SurveyUSA[44] August 10–13, 2018558± 5.2% align=center40%38%2%5%16%
North Star Opinion Research (R-DeSantis)[45] August 5–7, 2018600± 4.0% align=center50%30%
Mason-Dixon[46] July 23–25, 2018500± 4.5% align=center41%29%0%2%28%
Florida Atlantic University[47] July 20–21, 2018262± 6.0% align=center36%27%3%12%23%
Clearview Research[48] July 14–19, 2018700± 4.0%38% align=center39%23%
St. Pete Polls[49] July 16–17, 20181,709± 2.4% align=center50%30%4%17%
Gravis Marketing[50] July 13–14, 2018905± 3.3% align=center35%29%4%25%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[51] July 8–12, 2018349± 5.2% align=center42%30%27%
Remington (R-Tenth Amendment Project)[52] July 2–5, 20182,826± 1.8% align=center43%26%25%
1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)[53] July 2, 2018800± 3.4% align=center47%28%
Marist College[54] June 17–21, 2018326± 6.7%21% align=center38%3%39%
Fox News[55] June 15–19, 2018901± 3.0%17% align=center32%3%5%
Gravis Marketing[56] May 31 – June 15, 2018543± 4.2%4%19% align=center29%5% align=center43%
Cherry Communications[57] June 7–9, 2018501± 5.3%15% align=center32%5% align=center48%
Saint Leo University[58] May 25–31, 201817513% align=center35%9% align=center44%
Florida Atlantic University[59] May 4–7, 2018371± 5.0% align=center16%15%3%24% align=center43%
1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)[60] April 19–23, 2018800± 3.4%7% align=center30%23% align=center40%
align=center30%26% align=center44%
Gravis Marketing[61] February 26 – March 19, 20183% align=center19%0%17%0% align=center60%
North Star Opinion Research (R-DeSantis)[62] March 12–15, 2018600<6% align=center21%19%
align=center28%23%
Saint Leo University[63] February 18–24, 20181757%14%3% align=center15%5%9% align=center46%
Gravis Marketing[64] February 1–18, 20183%16%0% align=center18%2% align=center61%
Mason-Dixon[65] January 29 – February 1, 2018500± 4.5%7%23% align=center27% align=center43%
Remington[66] December 30–31, 20171,423± 2.6%3% align=center28%25% align=center44%
Gravis Marketing[67] December 19–24, 20172%12%2% align=center23%1% align=center60%
Saint Leo University[68] November 19–24, 20171665% align=center15%4%10% align=center63%
Cherry Communications[69] September 17–24, 20172561%9% align=center26%3% align=center59%
Saint Leo University[70] September 10–16, 20171734%7% align=center20%2%11% align=center44%
Florida Atlantic University[71] August 24–26, 2017304± 6.5%10%9% align=center27% align=center53%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeff
Atwater
Rick
Baker
Pam
Bondi
Richard
Corcoran
Mike
Huckabee
Usha
Jain
David
Jolly
Jack
Latvala
Adam
Putnam
Will
Weatherford
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing[72] March 28–29, 20172%5%5%4% align=center21% align=center63%
Saint Leo University[73] March 3–11, 20171756%5% align=center30%2%3%13%8% align=center34%
Associated Industries of Florida[74] February 14–17, 2017800± 3.5%4% align=center22% align=center71%
Cherry Communications[75] December 3–8, 2016 align=center22% align=center64%
Saint Leo University[76] November 27–30, 20165%1%2% align=center32%6%1%7% align=center47%
StPetePolls.org[77] August 2, 20161,835± 2.3%7%3%26%1% align=center37%8%1%7%12%

Results

Democratic primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Andrew
Gillum
Gwen
Graham
Jeff
Greene
Chris
King
Philip
Levine
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[111] August 25–26, 20182,342± 2.0%25% align=center32%11%2%22%4%5%
Gravis MarketingAugust 21–25, 2018531± 4.3%16% align=center26%19%5%18%17%
Gravis MarketingAugust 21–22, 2018308± 5.6%15% align=center26%19%5%18%17%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)[112] August 19–21, 2018669± 3.8%18%25%13%2% align=center26%15%
Florida Atlantic UniversityAugust 16–20, 2018280± 6.3%11% align=center29%11%10%17%3%19%
Change Research (D-Gillum)[113] August 18–19, 20181,178 align=center33%22%10%22%
St. Pete Polls[114] August 18–19, 20182,202± 2.1%21% align=center27%15%3%25%4%6%
Saint Leo UniversityAugust 10–16, 201818815% align=center31%17%5%22%4%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)[115] August 11–14, 2018600± 4.0%15%24%13%3% align=center27%18%
SurveyUSA[116] August 10–13, 2018631± 5.2%11%22%16%3%22%2% align=center24%
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)[117] August 5–6, 201857213% align=center26%16%4%22%19%
ALG Research (D-Graham)[118] July 29 – August 2, 2018800± 3.4%10% align=center33%13%3%17%23%
St. Pete Polls[119] July 30–31, 20181,652± 2.4%12% align=center29%23%3%19%4%9%
Mason-DixonJuly 23–25, 2018500± 4.5%10% align=center27%12%7%18%1%25%
Florida Atlantic UniversityJuly 20–21, 2018271± 5.9%7% align=center20%14%9%16%3% align=center31%
Associated Industries of Florida[120] July 16–18, 201880012% align=center24%13%4%16%
Frederick Polls[121] July 201850615% align=center28%23%7%27%
St. Pete Polls[122] July 14–15, 20181,314± 2.7%10% align=center22% align=center22%3%19%1% align=center25%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,540± 2.5%10% align=center27%18%17% align=center27%
Marist CollegeJune 17–21, 2018344± 6.5%8%17%4%3% align=center19%1% align=center47%
RABA Research[123] June 15–16, 2018660± 3.8%8%26%3%15% align=center27%21%
Gravis Marketing[124] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5% align=center29%24%3%17%27%
Let's Preserve the American Dream[125] June 6–9, 2018800± 3.1%11%21%3%4% align=center24% align=center37%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)[126] June 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%11%16%4%6% align=center32%31%
Saint Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 201819510% align=center14%6% align=center14%9% align=center47%
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)[127] May 21–22, 201858312%20%6% align=center30% align=center33%
Change Research (D-Gillum)[128] May 8–11, 20181,107± 3.0%13%13%3% align=center20% align=center52%
Florida Atlantic UniversityMay 4–7, 2018372± 3.0%6%15%10% align=center16%11% align=center42%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[129] April 10–11, 20184918%23%4% align=center29% align=center36%
Public Policy Polling[130] March 23–25, 20186138%19%5% align=center22% align=center46%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 201811%9%2%2% align=center13% align=center64%
Saint Leo UniversityFebruary 18–24, 201819010% align=center17%5%7%8%3% align=center50%
Gravis Marketing[131] February 1–18, 20189% align=center12%1%2% align=center12% align=center63%
Mason-DixonJanuary 29 – February 1, 2018500± 4.5%10% align=center20%4%17% align=center49%
Gravis Marketing[132] December 19–24, 201712% align=center18%2%3%6% align=center60%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Buckhorn
Kathy
Castor
Buddy
Dyer
Andrew
Gillum
Gwen
Graham
Jeff
Greene
Grant
Hill
Chris
King
Philip
Levine
John
Morgan
Patrick
Murphy
Jeremy
Ring
Katherine
Fernandez
Rundle
Jack
Seiler
OtherUndecided
Frederick Polls[133] April 23–28, 2018750± 3.6%6%14%2% align=center20%14% align=center44%
Saint Leo UniversityNovember 19–24, 20171812%6%9%2%2%3%2% align=center13%5%2% align=center53%
Cherry Communications[134] September 17–24, 20172636%16%2%4% align=center23%4% align=center44%
Saint Leo UniversitySeptember 10–16, 20171903%5%7%1%4%4%1%12% align=center13%5%3% align=center44%
Florida Atlantic UniversityAugust 24–26, 2017297± 6.5%9%14%4%8% align=center19% align=center47%
Gravis Marketing[135] April 4–10, 201713%11%1%3% align=center14%3% align=center55%
Gravis MarketingMarch 28–29, 201723%8%0%1%9% align=center24% align=center36%
Saint Leo UniversityMarch 3–11, 20172033%5%6%4%4%5%9% align=center20%2%2%4% align=center40%
Cherry CommunicationsDecember 3–8, 20165%8% align=center16%5%15%4% align=center45%
Saint Leo UniversityNovember 27–30, 20165%4%5%5%3% align=center20%1%1%7% align=center49%

Results

Independent and third party candidates

Reform Party

Declared

Libertarian Party

Withdrawn

Constitution party

Withdrawn

Independents

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

General election

Debates

DatesLocationDeSantisGillumLink
October 21, 2018Tampa, FloridaParticipantParticipantalign=left Full debate - C-SPAN
October 24, 2018Weston, FloridaParticipantParticipantalign=left Full debate - C-SPAN

First debate

The first debate moderated by CNN's Jake Tapper was hosted on October 21, 2018, at WEDU, Tampa, Florida.[146] It was an hour long debate featuring topics like climate change,[147] [148] minimum wage,[149] [150] health care,[151] gun control,[152] the NRA,[153] DeSantis's "monkey up" comment[154] and President Donald Trump being a role model for children.[155] [156]

This debate was held a day before early voting started in Florida on October 22, 2018.[157]

Second debate

The second debate occurred on October 24, 2018, and was hosted at Weston, Florida. It was moderated by Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association.[158]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[159] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[160] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[161] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[162] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[163] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[164] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[165] November 5, 2018
Fox News[166] November 5, 2018
Politico[167] November 5, 2018
Governing[168] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[169] November 4–5, 20181,484± 2.5% align=center50%47%1%2%
HarrisX[170] November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%46% align=center49%
St. Pete Polls[171] November 3–4, 20183,088± 1.8%45% align=center50%2%3%
HarrisX[172] November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%46% align=center48%
Quinnipiac University[173] October 29 – November 4, 20181,142± 3.5%43% align=center50%1%6%
Emerson College[174] November 1–3, 2018784± 3.7%46% align=center51%2%1%
HarrisX[175] November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%46% align=center49%
Research Co.[176] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%46% align=center47%2%5%
St. Pete Polls[177] November 1–2, 20182,733± 1.9%46% align=center48%2%4%
HarrisX[178] October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center50%
Marist College[179] October 30 – November 2, 2018595 LV± 5.0%46% align=center50%<1%3%
917 RV± 4.1%45% align=center50%<1%5%
Gravis Marketing[180] October 29 – November 2, 2018753± 3.6%47% align=center48%5%
HarrisX[181] October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center50%
Targoz Market Research[182] October 28–31, 2018558 align=center48%47%5%
HarrisX[183] October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%43% align=center50%
MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance[184] October 25–31, 20201,00540% align=center41%1%18%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[185] October 29–30, 20182,543± 1.9%46% align=center48%3%2%
Vox Populi Polling[186] October 27–30, 2018696± 3.7%47% align=center53%
HarrisX[187] October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%42% align=center44%
Cygnal (R)[188] October 27–29, 2018495± 4.4%47%47%5%1%
CNN/SSRS[189] October 24–29, 2018781 LV± 4.3%48% align=center49%0%2%
887 RV± 4.0%45% align=center48%0%4%
Suffolk University[190] October 25–28, 2018500± 4.4%44% align=center45%1%8%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[191] October 23–27, 2018737± 4.0%43% align=center48%1%8%
University of North Florida[192] October 23–26, 20181,051± 3.0%43% align=center49%<1%7%
YouGov[193] October 23–26, 2018991± 4.0%46% align=center47%2%5%
Ipsos[194] October 17–25, 20181,069± 3.4%44% align=center50%3%3%
Gravis Marketing[195] October 22–23, 2018773± 3.5%46% align=center51%3%
Strategic Research Associates[196] October 16–23, 2018800± 3.5% align=center48%45%8%
1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)[197] October 20–22, 20182,500± 2.0% align=center47%46%2%6%
Saint Leo University[198] October 16–22, 2018698± 3.5%37% align=center49%4%11%
St. Pete Polls[199] October 20–21, 20181,575± 2.5%46% align=center47%2%4%
Florida Atlantic University[200] October 18–21, 2018704± 3.6%37% align=center41%4%18%
SurveyUSA[201] October 18–21, 2018665± 5.0%42% align=center49%1%8%
Quinnipiac University[202] October 17–21, 20181,161± 3.5%46% align=center52%1%2%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)[203] October 17–20, 2018600± 4.0%42% align=center48%10%
CNN/SSRS[204] October 16–20, 2018759 LV± 4.2%42% align=center54%0%4%
872 RV± 3.9%42% align=center52%0%5%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott)[205] October 14–18, 20182,200± 2.1% align=center48%45%3%4%
St. Pete Polls[206] October 15–16, 20181,974± 2.2%46% align=center47%2%5%
Florida Southern College[207] October 1–5, 2018476± 4.5%44% align=center47%5%4%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS[208] September 19 – October 2, 2018522± 6.0%40% align=center48%1%10%
St. Pete Polls[209] September 29–30, 20182,313± 2.0%45% align=center47%2%6%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[210] September 28–30, 2018779± 3.5%44% align=center48%8%
Strategic Research Associates[211] September 17–30, 2018800± 3.5%43% align=center44%12%
Mason-Dixon[212] September 24–27, 2018815± 3.5%44% align=center45%3%8%
Quinnipiac University[213] September 22–24, 2018888± 4.0%45% align=center54%0%2%
Cherry Communications[214] September 19–24, 2018622± 4.4%42% align=center48%2%6%
Marist College[215] September 16–20, 2018600 LV± 4.7%43% align=center48%1%7%
829 RV± 4.0%41% align=center49%1%10%
University of North Florida[216] September 17–19, 201860543% align=center47%<1%10%
Florida Atlantic University[217] September 13–16, 2018850± 3.3%39% align=center41%5%15%
Ipsos[218] September 5–12, 20181,000± 4.0%44% align=center50%2%5%
Rasmussen Reports[219] September 10–11, 2018800± 3.5%42% align=center48%2%8%
SurveyUSA[220] September 7–9, 2018634± 5.3%43% align=center47%1%9%
Cherry Communications[221] September 6–9, 2018514± 4.0%43% align=center47%2%8%
St. Pete Polls[222] September 5–6, 20182,240± 2.1%47% align=center48%5%
Quinnipiac University[223] August 30 – September 3, 2018785± 4.3%47% align=center50%0%3%
Gravis Marketing[224] August 29–30, 20181,225± 2.8%45% align=center47%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[225] August 29–30, 2018743± 4.0%43% align=center48%9%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3% align=center39%36%25%
Gravis Marketing[226] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%35% align=center38%27%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1%29% align=center33% align=center37%

with Ron DeSantis and Gwen Graham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
OtherUndecided
Frederick Polls (D)[227] August 16–20, 2018500± 4.4%40% align=center44%
Saint Leo University[228] August 10–16, 2018500± 4.5%31% align=center36%9%24%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3%38% align=center42%20%
Gravis Marketing[229] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%34% align=center44%22%
Saint Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2018506± 4.5%16% align=center22%13% align=center49%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[230] April 10–11, 201866136% align=center40%24%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1%30% align=center33% align=center37%

with Ron DeSantis and Jeff Greene

with Ron DeSantis and Chris King

with Ron DeSantis and Philip Levine

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Philip
Levine (D)
OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityAugust 10–16, 2018500± 4.5%30% align=center34%11%25%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3% align=center40%38%22%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[232] June 18–19, 20181,30836% align=center41%
Gravis Marketing[233] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%33% align=center43%24%
Saint Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2018506± 4.5%17% align=center22%12% align=center49%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)April 10–11, 201866137% align=center42%22%

with Adam Putnam and Andrew Gillum

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3% align=center41%35%29%
Gravis Marketing[234] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%39% align=center42%20%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center34%28% align=center38%
Gravis Marketing[235] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2%30%30% align=center40%
Gravis Marketing[236] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%31%31% align=center39%
Cherry Communications[237] September 17–24, 2017615 align=center40%33%
Gravis MarketingMarch 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6% align=center32%31% align=center37%

with Adam Putnam and Gwen Graham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityAugust 10–16, 2018500± 4.5% align=center36%31%9%24%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3% align=center40%39%20%
Gravis Marketing[238] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%39% align=center45%17%
Saint Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2018506± 4.5% align=center25%20%13% align=center43%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)April 10–11, 201866136% align=center37%27%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center34%32% align=center34%
Saint Leo UniversityFebruary 18–24, 2018500± 4.5% align=center22%18%14% align=center45%
Gravis Marketing[239] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2% align=center33%29% align=center38%
Gravis Marketing[240] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%32%32% align=center37%
Cherry CommunicationsSeptember 17–24, 2017615 align=center39%37%
Gravis MarketingMarch 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6%32% align=center34% align=center35%
Cherry CommunicationsDecember 3–8, 2016606 align=center39%36%25%
Gravis Marketing[241] November 22–25, 20163,250± 2.4%34% align=center37%30%

with Adam Putnam and Jeff Greene

with Adam Putnam and Chris King

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Chris
King (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[242] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5% align=center39%38%23%
Cherry CommunicationsSeptember 17–24, 2017615 align=center40%31%

with Adam Putnam and Philip Levine

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Philip
Levine (D)
OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityAugust 10–16, 2018500± 4.5% align=center37%30%9%25%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3% align=center43%38%19%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)June 18–19, 20181,30838% align=center43%
Gravis Marketing[243] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%39% align=center43%19%
Saint Leo UniversityMay 25–31, 2018506± 4.5% align=center24%20%11% align=center44%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)April 10–11, 201866137% align=center41%23%
Cherry CommunicationsSeptember 17–24, 2017615 align=center40%32%

with Bob White and Andrew Gillum

with Bob White and Gwen Graham

with Bob White and Chris King

with Bob White and Philip Levine

with generic Republican and Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Morning Consult[248] May 29–30, 20181,199± 3.0%38% align=center40%22%
Quinnipiac University[249] February 23–26, 20181,156± 3.6%37% align=center45%18%

with Richard Corcoran and Andrew Gillum

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[250] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%27% align=center41%32%
Gravis MarketingMarch 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6%26% align=center33% align=center42%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1%26% align=center33% align=center41%
Gravis Marketing[251] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2%23% align=center32% align=center46%
Gravis Marketing[252] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%22% align=center33% align=center45%

with Richard Corcoran and Gwen Graham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[253] May 31 – June 15, 2018485± 4.5%27% align=center44%29%
Gravis MarketingMarch 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6%29% align=center34% align=center38%
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1%28% align=center32% align=center40%
Gravis Marketing[254] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2%24% align=center33% align=center44%
Gravis Marketing[255] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%24% align=center33% align=center43%

with Richard Corcoran and Chris King

with Richard Corcoran and Philip Levine

with Richard Corcoran and John Morgan

with David Jolly and John Morgan

with Jeff Atwater and Gwen Graham

with Jeff Atwater and John Morgan

with Pam Bondi and Gwen Graham

with Pam Bondi and John Morgan

with David Jolly and Gwen Graham

with Andrew Putnam, Andrew Gillum, and John Morgan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
John
Morgan (I)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center28%23%16% align=center34%
Gravis Marketing[258] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2% align=center27%20%17% align=center36%
Gravis Marketing[259] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3% align=center26%22%18% align=center34%

with Andrew Putnam, Gwen Graham, and John Morgan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
John
Morgan (I)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center29%22%17% align=center32%
Gravis Marketing[260] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2% align=center28%21%17% align=center34%
Gravis Marketing[261] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3% align=center27%23%17% align=center33%

with Richard Corcoran, Andrew Gillum, and John Morgan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
John
Morgan (I)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center25%23%17% align=center34%
Gravis Marketing[262] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2%20% align=center21%17% align=center41%
Gravis Marketing[263] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%20% align=center23%19% align=center39%

with Richard Corcoran, Gwen Graham, and John Morgan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
John
Morgan (I)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingFebruary 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center26%21%16% align=center37%
Gravis Marketing[264] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2%20% align=center23%16% align=center41%
Gravis Marketing[265] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3%20% align=center24%18% align=center38%

with Adam Putnam and John Morgan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
John
Morgan (D)
OtherUndecided
Saint Leo UniversityNovember 19–24, 2017500± 4.5%19% align=center24%8% align=center49%
Cherry CommunicationsSeptember 17–24, 2017615 align=center40%37%
Saint Leo UniversitySeptember 10–16, 2017500± 4.5%18% align=center24%16% align=center42%
Gravis MarketingMarch 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6%33% align=center34%32%
Saint Leo UniversityMarch 3–11, 2017507± 4.5%20% align=center26%13% align=center42%
Cherry CommunicationsDecember 3–8, 2016606 align=center40%37%23%
Gravis MarketingNovember 22–25, 20163,250± 2.4%35% align=center39%26%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

DeSantis won 14 of 27 congressional districts.[266]

DistrictDeSantisGillumRepresentative
67%31%Matt Gaetz
66%33%Neal Dunn
55%44%Ted Yoho
61%38%John Rutherford
34%65%Al Lawson
57%42%Ron DeSantis
Michael Waltz
44%55%Stephanie Murphy
58%40%Bill Posey
44%55%Darren Soto
36%63%Val Demings
64%34%Daniel Webster
56%42%Gus Bilirakis
45%53%Charlie Crist
40%59%Kathy Castor
53%46%Dennis Ross
Ross Spano
53%45%Vern Buchanan
62%36%Tom Rooney
Greg Steube
52%47%Brian Mast
61%37%Francis Rooney
17%82%Alcee Hastings
39%61%Lois Frankel
41%59%Ted Deutch
37%62%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
16%84%Frederica Wilson
57%41%Mario Díaz-Balart
46%53%Carlos Curbelo
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
44%55%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Donna Shalala

Analysis

The close margin mandated a machine recount, which had a deadline of November 15, 2018. If the margin was below 0.25% after machine recount, Ken Detzner, the Secretary of State of Florida, would commission a manual recount of over-votes and under-votes.[267] However, after the recount was complete, DeSantis' margin was 0.40%; therefore he was certified the winner. Gillum conceded on November 17.[268]

On November 10, 2022, former president Donald Trump claimed on his Truth Social page that he had prematurely ended the recount to prevent DeSantis and Senate candidate Rick Scott from losing, under the unsubstantiated belief that ballots for them were being removed.[269] Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried has asked Attorney General Merrick Garland to investigate.[270] Sarah Isgur, the spokeswoman of the Department of Justice from 2017 to 2019, has said that it "never happened,"[271] a position which was supported by other former Department of Justice officials.[272] Broward County Commissioner Steven Geller has agreed that no interference took place.[273]

Voter demographics

Gillum!
DeSantisNo
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men4158145
Women5742155
Age
18–24 years old584025
25–29 years old643425
30–39 years old6535N/A10
40–49 years old4950112
50–64 years old4852N/A31
65 and older4356136
Race
White3960166
Black8614N/A13
Latino5444215
AsianN/AN/AN/A2
Other653324
Race by gender
White men3169N/A31
White women4751235
Black men91816
Black women8218N/A8
Latino men494926
Latina women584119
Others653415
Education
High school or less4454220
Some college education5148125
Associate degree4751215
Bachelor's degree4752124
Advanced degree5742116
Education and race
White college graduates4654N/A27
White no college degree3464239
Non-white college graduates6138112
Non-white no college degree7326122
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5742113
White women without college degrees4158128
White men with college degrees3565N/A14
White men without college degrees2673117
Non-whites6930134
Income
Under $30,0006336119
$30,000–49,9994951N/A22
$50,000–99,9995247133
$100,000–199,9995050N/A19
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats937N/A33
Republicans792138
Independents5444229
Party by gender
Democratic men9010N/A12
Democratic women955N/A21
Republican men793N/A19
Republican women790318
Independent men5049114
Independent women5839316
Ideology
Liberals909122
Moderates6138139
Conservatives1385239
Marital status
Married4455164
Unmarried5642236
Gender by marital status
Married men3465132
Married women5247131
Unmarried men4651314
Unmarried women6137223
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5640416
No4753N/A84
Most important issue facing the country
Health care7425140
Immigration1880230
Economy3069116
Gun policy7723N/A10
Area type
Urban5742142
Suburban4553250
Rural3664N/A8
Source: CNN[274]

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: November 6, 2018 General Election. Florida Department of State. 2022-05-15.
  2. Web site: November 6, 2018 General Election — Voter Registration and Turnout . Florida Department of State . June 5, 2022.
  3. Web site: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018. Ballotpedia. March 28, 2018.
  4. News: Florida Governor Election Results: Andrew Gillum vs. Ron DeSantis . The New York Times . 2018-11-07.
  5. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. May 3, 2017. Florida Department of State. March 28, 2018.
  6. Web site: Florida Governor Republican Primary: Q&A with Don Baldauf. Sarasota Herald. 2018-12-11. https://web.archive.org/web/20180803031734/https://www.heraldtribune.com/news/20180802/florida-governor-republican-primary-qampa-with-don-baldauf. 2018-08-03. dead.
  7. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. January 9, 2017. Florida Department of State. March 28, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180330211205/http://dos.elections.myflorida.com/candidates/CanDetail.asp?account=69578. March 30, 2018. live.
  8. Web site: Candidate Tracking system – Florida Division of Elections – Department of State. dos.elections.myflorida.com.
  9. Web site: Longshot candidates seek to ban the IRS and assault weapons. Tallahassee Democrat. 2018-12-11.
  10. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. September 25, 2017. Florida Department of State. March 28, 2018.
  11. Web site: Florida Republican Gubernatorial Candidates Spectrum News 13. www.mynews13.com. 2019-05-01. May 1, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190501221318/https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/politics/voting-guide/gubernatorial-gop-candidates. dead.
  12. Web site: Northwest Panhandle Tax Party. April 16, 2017. Carly. Mascitti. WMBB. June 21, 2017.
  13. Web site: Adam Putnam kicks off campaign for governor in hometown. May 10, 2017. Sun-Sentinel. May 11, 2017.
  14. Web site: Republican Liberty Caucus Chairman Bob White Jumps in Gubernatorial Race. May 22, 2017. Kevin. Derby. Sunshine State News. May 22, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170624151145/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/republican-liberty-caucus-chairman-bob-white-jumps-gubernatorial-race. June 24, 2017.
  15. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. September 6, 2017. Florida Department of State. March 28, 2018.
  16. Web site: Hollywood residents indicted in $17 million bank fraud scheme. Piccardo. Rebeca. Sun-Sentinel.com. January 26, 2017 . 2019-05-01.
  17. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. February 27, 2018. Florida Department of State. March 29, 2018.
  18. Web site: Frederick Dee Buntin (REP) – 2018 Election Candidates (Hillsborough County). sites.google.com. 2019-05-01. May 2, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190502051048/https://sites.google.com/site/2018hillsboroughelections/candidate-listing/governor/buntin-frederick-dee. dead.
  19. Web site: Political Outsider Dr. Usha Jain Jumps Into 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election. Goodman. Kaitlyn. January 5, 2017. I Agree to See. January 6, 2017.
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    1. ThankYou
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  47. https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2018/florida-primaries-heat-up.php Florida Atlantic University
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  52. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/268192-poll-desantis-up-17-putnam Remington (R-Tenth Amendment Project)
  53. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/268226-internal-poll-shows-double-digit-lead-for-ron-desantis 1892 Polling (R-DeSantis)
  54. http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_June%202018.pdf Marist College
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  94. Web site: Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn won't seek Democratic nomination for governor in 2018. Tampa Bay Times. Danielson. Richard. March 9, 2017. March 9, 2017.
  95. Web site: Kathy Castor Casts an Eye on Tallahassee. Sunshine State News. Henderson. Jeff. February 18, 2015. June 17, 2016.
  96. Web site: Kathy Castor not ruling out future run for higher office. Florida Politics. Perry. Mitch. February 24, 2015. June 17, 2016.
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  100. Web site: Buddy Dyer "unequivocally" not running for governor, but would consider UCF presidency. Florida Politics. Torres. Frank. September 30, 2015. March 9, 2017.
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