2018 California Insurance Commissioner election explained

Election Name:	2018 California Insurance Commissioner election
Country:	California
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 California Insurance Commissioner election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2022 California Insurance Commissioner election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	Image:Senator Ricardo Lara 2016 (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:	Ricardo Lara
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	6,186,039
Percentage1:	52.9%
Candidate2:	Steve Poizner
Party2:	No party preference
Popular Vote2:	5,515,293
Percentage2:	47.1%
Map Size:	300px
Commissioner
Before Election:	Dave Jones
Before Party:	California Democratic Party
After Election:	Ricardo Lara
After Party:	California Democratic Party

The 2018 California Insurance Commissioner election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the Insurance Commissioner of California. Under California's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election.

Incumbent Democratic commissioner Dave Jones was term-limited and could not seek a third term.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Declared

• Ricardo Lara, state senator^[1]
• Asif Mahmood, pulmonologist

Declined

• Susan Bonilla, former state assemblywoman^[2]
• Tony Mendoza, state senator^[3]

No party preference

Declared

• Steve Poizner, former Republican California Insurance Commissioner (2007–2011)^{[4] [5]}

Peace and Freedom Party

Declared

• Nathalie Hrizi, teacher and 2014 candidate for Insurance Commissioner^[6]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Ricardo Lara (D)	Asif Mahmood (D)	Steve Poizner (NPP)	Nathalie Hrizi (PFP)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing^[7]	May 4–5, 2018	525	align=center	18%	7%	align=center	26%	6%	align=center	43%
Probolsky Research^[8]	April 16–18, 2018	900	align=center	14%	6%	align=center	21%	6%	align=center	53%
Sexton Strategies and Research (D-Mahmood)^[9]	March 24–27, 2018	800	align=center	18%	align=center	18%	align=center	49%	–	align=center	15%

Results

Results by county

Primary results by county.

Gray represents counties won by Poizner. Blue represents counties won by Lara.

County	Hrizi (PFP)		Lara (D)		Mahmood (D)		Poizner (NPP)
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
		17,147	5.8%	133,124	45.0%	58,868	19.9%	86,517	29.3%
		14	3.9%	148	41.5%	52	14.6%	143	40.1%
		612	5.3%	2,580	22.3%	1,403	12.1%	6,961	60.2%
		3,355	6.9%	14,716	30.3%	6,888	14.2%	23,637	48.6%
		763	5.5%	3,100	22.3%	1,665	12.0%	8,373	60.2%
		177	5.8%	797	26.0%	341	11.1%	1,751	57.1%
		11,081	5.2%	77,385	36.2%	32,203	15.1%	92,885	43.5%
		367	7.8%	1,527	32.6%	509	10.9%	2,275	48.6%
		2,385	4.8%	12,415	24.9%	6,077	12.2%	28,890	58.1%
		6,786	5.7%	41,331	35.0%	13,866	11.7%	56,205	47.6%
		300	6.9%	891	20.5%	411	9.5%	2,741	63.1%
		2,052	7.6%	11,995	44.2%	4,734	17.4%	8,383	30.9%
		808	4.6%	9,841	55.6%	1,547	8.7%	5,488	31.0%
		346	7.1%	1,541	31.6%	559	11.5%	2,431	49.8%
		5,398	5.1%	30,758	28.8%	8,401	7.9%	62,207	58.3%
		636	4.3%	4,332	29.2%	1,286	8.7%	8,570	57.8%
		758	6.2%	3,749	30.4%	2,148	17.4%	5,658	46.0%
		497	9.4%	1,186	22.5%	415	7.9%	3,164	60.1%
		61,597	4.7%	697,795	53.6%	167,348	12.8%	375,658	28.8%
		989	4.6%	6,066	28.0%	1,772	8.2%	12,814	58.2%
		2,919	4.0%	31,388	42.6%	12,091	16.4%	27,200	37.0%
		332	6.0%	1,440	26.2%	483	8.8%	3,237	58.9%
		1,460	7.8%	7,776	41.5%	3,992	21.3%	5,488	29.3%
		1,547	5.4%	11,275	39.3%	2,411	8.4%	13,484	47.0%
		231	10.1%	474	20.6%	221	9.6	1,372	59.7%
		165	5.6%	1,109	38.0%	372	12.7%	1,276	43.7%
		2,479	4.5%	30,645	50.9%	5,535	9.2%	21,511	35.8%
		1,439	4.5%	10,671	33.2%	6,464	20.1%	13,554	42.25%
		1,822	5.5%	9,958	30.0%	6,188	18.6%	15,221	45.9%
		23,160	4.2%	188,970	34.1%	61,759	11.1%	280,356	50.6%
		5,102	5.3%	25,945	26.8%	11,515	11.9%	54,208	56.0%
		374	6.6%	1,372	24.4%	925	16.4%	2,957	52.5%
		13,804	4.5%	108,203	35.1%	32,895	10.7%	153,157	49.7%
		12,183	4.4%	101,947	36.5%	43,282	15.5%	121,841	43.6%
		635	5.7%	4,647	42.0%	1,131	10.2%	4,654	42.1%
		12,723	5.0%	90,705	35.7%	26,223	10.3%	124,324	49.0%
		23,397	3.9%	236,429	39.2%	77,311	12.8%	266,318	44.1%
		29,487	14.1%	85,107	40.8%	33,001	15.8%	61,044	29.3%
		5,427	5.5%	34,626	35.3%	13,673	13.9%	44,395	45.2%
		3,998	5.2%	25,898	34.0%	9,912	13.0%	36,411	47.8%
		6,436	4.2%	63,588	42.0%	25,588	16.9%	55,930	36.9%
		3,374	4.2%	33,840	42.1%	9,821	12.2%	33,303	41.5%
		12,742	4.0%	122,582	38.2%	54,958	17.1%	130,320	40.6%
		3,373	5.2%	31,192	48.3%	10,239	15.9%	19,728	30.6%
		2,626	6.3%	8,153	19.7%	3,593	8.7%	27,077	65.3%
		108	8.9%	311	25.6%	167	13.8%	627	51.7%
		705	6.9%	2,802	27.6%	1,121	11.0%	5,523	54.4%
		4,310	5.8%	28,514	38.4%	12,225	16.4%	29,277	39.4%
		5,550	4.7%	52,719	45.0%	22,399	19.1%	36,463	31.1%
		3,755	4.7%	26,116	32.8%	10,487	13.2%	39,346	49.4%
		1,187	6.4%	4,277	23.2%	2,694	14.6%	10,258	55.7%
		1,024	8.0%	2,645	20.7%	1,087	8.5%	8,042	62.8%
		382	11.1%	1,031	30.0%	490	14.2%	1,536	44.7%
		2,568	5.1%	16,495	32.4%	3,615	7.1%	28,167	55.4%
		811	5.8%	3,464	24.8%	1,865	13.3%	7,843	56.1%
		5,875	4.0%	57,286	38.7%	16,715	11.3%	68,059	46.0%
		1,777	4.3%	17,219	41.5%	7,799	18.8%	14,688	35.4%
		786	7.3%	2,382	22.2%	1,283	12.0%	6,274	58.5%
Totals	316,149	5.0%	2,538,478	40.5%	846,023	13.5%	2,569,254	41.0%

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ricardo Lara (D)	Steve Poizner (NPP)	Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies^[10]	October 25–27, 2018	1,068	± 3.5%	44%	align=center	45%	11%
UC Berkeley^[11]	October 19–26, 2018	1,339	± 4.0%	44%	align=center	49%	7%
Thomas Partners Strategies^[12]	October 12–14, 2018	1,068	± 3.5%	39%	align=center	47%	15%
Thomas Partners Strategies^[13]	September 28–30, 2018	1,068	± 3.5%	37%	align=center	45%	15%
Thomas Partners Strategies^[14]	September 21–23, 2018	1,068	± 3.5%	40%	align=center	45%	15%
Thomas Partners Strategies^[15]	September 14–16, 2018	1,040	± 3.5%	27%	align=center	34%	align=center	40%
Thomas Partners Strategies^[16]	September 7–9, 2018	1,227	± 3.3%	27%	align=center	34%	align=center	39%

Results

External links

Official campaign websites

• Ricardo Lara (D) for Insurance Commissioner
• Steve Poizner (NPP) for Insurance Commissioner

Notes and References

1. Web site: California state Sen. Ricardo Lara announces he's running for state insurance commissioner in 2018. Los Angeles Times. McGreevy. Patrick. March 21, 2017. April 4, 2017.
2. Web site: Former Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla won't run for state insurance commissioner. Los Angeles Times. McGreevy. Patrick. March 22, 2017. April 4, 2017.
3. Web site: Mendoza to Senate Insurance & a Commissioner Run?. Workers' Comp Executive. Martin. Thurman R. Jr.. January 18, 2017. April 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170405170055/http://www.wcexec.com/MENDOZA-TO-SENATE-INSURANCE-A-COMMISSIONER-RUN.aspx. April 5, 2017. dead.
4. Web site: Top California Republican to run statewide as an independent. Politico.
5. Web site: Archived copy . 2018-03-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180329121633/http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-primary/notice-to-candidates-insurance-commissioner.pdf . 2018-03-29 . dead .
6. Web site: Election 2018: The Peace & Freedom Party Candidates. December 18, 2017. January 8, 2018. January 9, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180109121841/http://www.peaceandfreedom.org/home/join/12-news/general/1381-peace-and-freedom-party-2018-california-election-candidates. dead.
7. https://web.archive.org/web/20180510051311/https://d2pggiv3o55wnc.cloudfront.net/oann/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/OAN-POLL.pdf Gravis Marketing
8. https://www.probolskyresearch.com/2018/04/26/poizner-leads-in-race-for-ca-insurance-commissioner/ Probolsky Research
9. http://www.capoliticalreview.com/capoliticalnewsandviews/poizner-leads-by-31-in-race-for-insurance-commissioner-democrat-poll/ Sexton Strategies and Research (D-Mahmood)
10. https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=64b6c033aa Thomas Partners Strategies
11. https://escholarship.org/uc/item/3949w8v3 UC Berkeley
12. https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=a5fa95a604 Thomas Partners Strategies
13. https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=2d6fa782b1 Thomas Partners Strategies
14. https://us19.campaign-archive.com/?u=fd19d69505045f7e019bb4a7a&id=b59cb1a87e Thomas Partners Strategies
15. https://mailchi.mp/3ff27fee9e91/week-two-calif-statewide-poll-results Thomas Partners Strategies
16. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WtlsOXl4PgsATLspsS012XGuCzFoRSvt/view Thomas Partners Strategies