2018 California's 21st congressional district election explained

Election Name:2018 California's 21st congressional district election
Country:California
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 21
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2020 United States House of Representatives elections in California#District 21
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Image1:TJ Cox, official portrait, 116th Congress (cropped).jpg
Image1 Size:160x160px
Candidate1:TJ Cox
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:57,239
Percentage1:50.38%
Image2 Size:160x160px
Candidate2:David Valadao
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:56,377
Percentage2:49.62%
Map Size:270px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:David Valadao
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:TJ Cox
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 election for California's 21st congressional district was held on November 6, 2018, during the 2018 elections to the U.S. House of Representatives to determine who would represent California's 21st congressional district. The district, centered in the San Joaquin Valley, represents parts of Fresno County, Kern County, Kings County and Tulare County. It was represented by the incumbent, Republican David Valadao, since 2013.

Democrat TJ Cox, after dropping out of a competitive primary for the seat in California's 10th congressional district, chose to run against Valadao. Despite the district leaning Democratic and national polling suggesting a Democratic wave election, many election analysts considered Valadao likely to win. On election night, Valadao held an 8-point lead, the AP and other news networks called the race for Valadao, and Cox conceded. However, mail-in and absentee ballots, which constituted about sixty percent of all ballots cast in the race, started arriving in the days and weeks following election day and swung heavily toward Cox. On November 26, Cox took the lead, retaining it until all ballots had been counted; Valadao conceded the race on December 6.

Background

California's 21st congressional district is located in Central California; it is a primarily agricultural district, and almost three quarters of its population is Hispanic.[1] Politically, it leans five points more Democratic than the rest of the nation according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, and 44% of voters are registered Democrats, compared to only 27% registered Republicans.[2] [3]

Despite its preference for Democrats, Republican David Valadao won each of his three previous elections by double digits. In 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the district by sixteen percentage points, Valadao won reelection by thirteen.[4] Valadao's support has been attributed to his moderate viewpoints; support for and focus on local issues, such as water policy for the routinely drought-plagued district; and early opposition to Donald Trump.[5]

Primary

Valadao, the incumbent, declared his candidacy for the election on February 23, 2017.[6] As a Republican-held district Clinton won in 2016, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included this district in its initial list of 2018 targets.[7]

Emilio Huerta, Valadao's challenger in 2016, originally intended to challenge Valadao again in the 2018 election. However, dealing with poor fundraising figures since his filing, Huerta dropped out of the race a week before the filing deadline, leaving Democrats without a challenger in the district.[8] TJ Cox, a businessman from Fresno county originally running in the 2018 election for the 10th district, elected to drop out of that crowded primary in favor of the 21st district after Huerta dropped out.[9] [10]

The candidates were the only two to file by the deadline. The primary, held on June 5, 2018, resulted in Valadao and Cox advancing to the general with 63% and 37% of the vote respectively; no write-in candidates received votes.[11]

Results

Polling and pollster ratings

Following the primary, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report rated the district "Likely Republican".[12] This aligned with similar ratings issued by Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball.[13] [14] Aside from Sabato's Crystal Ball, which moved CA21 to Lean R, these ratings stayed the same through election day.[15] [16] [17] FiveThirtyEight's rolling election forecast featured a "Lite" model which initially favored Cox based solely on national and local polls, including generic ballot national polls which showed Democrats significantly outperforming Republicans; however, its "Classic" and "Deluxe" forecasts, which took into account non-poll factors like candidate favorability, fundraising, and past performance, gave Valadao an edge. Furthermore, following the only poll in the district showing a lead for Valadao, the "Lite" model moved in his favor.[18]

While most competitive Democrats were significantly outraising and outspending Republicans in the 2018 cycle, Valadao saw slightly greater fundraising totals than Cox in their election.[19] The only poll in the district, conducted September 20–24 by SurveyUSA, showed Valadao with an 11-point lead in the race, and president Trump with a 48% approval rating in the district, with 43% disapproving.[20]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: My Congressional District. United States Census Bureau. 2017. January 30, 2019.
  2. Web site: Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress. Polidata. 2017. January 30, 2019.
  3. Web site: Valadao defeats Cox in 21st Congressional District. Rory Appleton, The Fresno Bee. November 6, 2018. January 30, 2019.
  4. Web site: Statement of Vote. California Secretary of State. 2017. January 30, 2019.
  5. Web site: In this California congressional district, water is more important than Donald Trump. Sarah D. Wire, Los Angeles Times. October 24, 2016. January 30, 2019.
  6. Web site: FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy. [Federal Election Commission]. February 23, 2017. January 30, 2019.
  7. Web site: Democrats on Offense. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. January 30, 2017. January 30, 2019.
  8. Web site: Emilio Huerta drops out of congressional race against David Valadao. Rory Appleton, The Fresno Bee. March 2, 2018. January 30, 2019.
  9. Web site: Fresno engineer T.J. Cox to face Rep. David Valadao, sources say. Jessica Johnson, The Fresno Bee. March 6, 2018. January 30, 2019.
  10. Web site: Fresno County's TJ Cox Announces Congressional Run. 23ABC News. March 6, 2018. January 31, 2019.
  11. Web site: STATEMENT OF VOTE JUNE 5, 2018 STATEWIDE DIRECT PRIMARY ELECTION. California Secretary of State. 2018. January 31, 2019.
  12. Dave Wasserman. Redistrict. 1004450420255789062. June 6, 2018. Here's how we'd rank/rate CA's Dem targets after last night.
  13. Web site: House Ratings. Inside Elections. June 14, 2018. February 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20180625091630/https://insideelections.com/ratings/house. June 25, 2018. dead.
  14. Web site: 2018 House. Sabato's Crystal Ball. September 20, 2018. February 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20181002222854/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/. October 2, 2018. dead.
  15. Web site: House Ratings. Inside Elections. November 5, 2018. February 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20181231043008/https://insideelections.com/ratings/house. December 31, 2018. dead.
  16. Web site: 2018 House. Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 5, 2018. February 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20181213072245/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/. December 13, 2018. dead.
  17. Web site: 2018 House Race Ratings. Cook Political Report. November 5, 2018. February 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190126144928/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings. January 26, 2019. dead.
  18. Web site: California 21st. FiveThirtyEight. November 6, 2018. February 3, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181126140153/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/california/21/. November 26, 2018. live.
  19. Web site: California District 21 2018 Race. opensecrets.org. December 31, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  20. Web site: POLITICAL INSIDER: Valadao leads Cox in exclusive Action News poll. Warren Armstrong, KFSN. September 27, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  21. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8c4f7fef-0470-425f-a21f-e828438aac5e&c=100 SurveyUSA
  22. Web site: Debate: TJ Cox attacks on health care as Valadao points out errors in key Cox points. The Fresno Bee. October 26, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  23. Web site: TJ Cox signed document claiming Maryland as residence; campaign calls it ‘honest mistake’. Appleton. Rory. October 2, 2018. The Fresno Bee. en. 2019-02-15. [Campaign spokesman Phillip Vander Klay] said Cox bought the Bethesda home for his family to live in while his wife, Dr. Kathleen Murphy, studied public health policy at Johns Hopkins University. She is still working to complete her degree, but she and their four children moved back to Fresno about a year ago. Cox lived and worked in Fresno as his family lived in Maryland, Vander Klay said..
  24. Web site: Trump’s latest tweets about the migrant caravan, explained (and debunked). Dara Lind, vox.com. October 18, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  25. Web site: Vote By Mail. California Secretary of State. February 3, 2019.
  26. Web site: Statement of Vote. California Secretary of State. 2018. February 3, 2019.
  27. CATargetBot. CATargetBot. 1060059554564587520. November 6, 2018.
    1. CD21 Update
    .
  28. Web site: California Election Results 2018. Politico. February 3, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20181108053935/https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/california/. November 8, 2018. dead.
  29. AP Politics. AP_Politics. 1060064398469935104. BREAKING: Republican David Valadao wins re-election to U.S. House in California's 21st congressional district.. November 6, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  30. Web site: Race Call Retraction in CA 21. Decision Desk HQ. November 21, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  31. CATargetBot. CATargetBot. 1061815491126128641.
    1. CD21 Update
    . November 11, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  32. CATargetBot. CATargetBot. 1067216860779753472.
    1. CD21 Update
    . November 26, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  33. AP Politics. AP_Politics. 1067242618227224577. The AP is retracting its call in the race for California's 21st Congressional District.. November 26, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  34. Steve Kornacki. SteveKornacki. 1067225593492766721. The NBC News Decision Desk just retracted its previous call of CA-21 for GOP Rep. David Valadao. November 26, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  35. Nate Silver. NateSilver538. 1067255153630330880. Y'all should have retracted your call 2 weeks ago.. November 26, 2018. February 3, 2019.
  36. Web site: David Valadao Concedes House Race in Another Setback for California Republicans. Adam Nagourney, The New York Times. December 6, 2018. February 3, 2019.

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