| Election Name: | 2018 Braddon by-election |
| Country: | Australia |
| Type: | Parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2016 Australian federal election |
| Previous Year: | 2016 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Australian federal election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Turnout: | 90.38% 3.71 |
| Registered: | 73,670 |
| Seats For Election: | The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives |
| Vote Type: | First preference |
| Candidate1: | Justine Keay |
| Party1: | Australian Labor Party |
| Popular Vote1: | 23,218 |
| Percentage1: | 36.98% |
| Swing1: | 3.07 |
| Candidate2: | Brett Whiteley |
| Party2: | Liberal Party of Australia |
| Popular Vote2: | 24,645 |
| Percentage2: | 39.26% |
| Swing2: | 2.24 |
| Party3: | Independent politician |
| Popular Vote3: | 6,633 |
| Percentage3: | 10.57% |
| Swing3: | 10.57 |
| 1Blank: | TPP |
| 1Data1: | 52.31% |
| 1Data2: | 47.69% |
| 2Blank: | TPP swing |
| 2Data1: | 0.11 |
| 2Data2: | 0.11 |
| MP | |
| Before Election: | Justine Keay |
| Before Party: | Australian Labor Party |
| After Election: | Justine Keay |
| After Party: | Australian Labor Party |
A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.[1]
In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.[2]
The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.
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Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.[4] The others are:
A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.[5] [6]
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:[7]
| Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Background | |||
| width=3pt | Greens | Jarrod Edwards | Indigenous land management supervisor.[9] | ||
| width=3pt | SFF | Brett Neal | Farmer.[10] | ||
| width=3pt | Independent | Donna Gibbons | Registered nurse and small business owner. | ||
| width=3pt | Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election. | ||
| width=3pt | Liberal | Brett Whiteley | One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11] | ||
| width=3pt | Independent | Craig Garland | Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12] | ||
| People | Bruno Strangio | Has managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises. | |||
| width=3pt | Labor | Justine Keay | Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13] | ||
| +Braddon by-election polling | ||||||||||||
| Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | MoE | Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | GRN | OTH | ALP | LIB | |||||||
| 24−26 July 2018 | Newspoll | The Australian | 1002 | ±3.1% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% | 51% | 49% | ||
| 19 July 2018 | ReachTEL | Aus. Forest Products Assoc.[14] | 810 | ±3.4% | 36.0% | 42.7% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 52% | 48% | ||
| 2 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Sky News | >800 | ±3.4% | 33% | 47% | 6% | 14% | 46% | 54% | ||
| 2016 election | 40.0% | 41.5% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 52.2% | 47.8% | ||||||