2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election explained

Election Name:2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Country:North Rhine-Westphalia
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2022 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Next Year:2022
Seats For Election:All 199 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia
Majority Seats:100
Election Date:14 May 2017
Turnout:8,577,221 (65.2% 5.6pp)
Candidate1:Armin Laschet
Party1:Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Last Election1:67 seats, 26.3%
Seats1:72
Seat Change1: 5
Popular Vote1:2,796,683
Percentage1:33.0%
Swing1: 6.7pp
Candidate2:Hannelore Kraft
Party2:Social Democratic Party of Germany
Last Election2:99 seats, 39.1%
Seats2:69
Seat Change2: 30
Popular Vote2:2,649,205
Percentage2:31.2%
Swing2: 7.9pp
Candidate3:Christian Lindner
Party3:Free Democratic Party (Germany)
Last Election3:22 seats, 8.6%
Seats3:28
Seat Change3: 6
Popular Vote3:1,065,307
Percentage3:12.6%
Swing3: 4.0pp
Candidate4:Marcus Pretzell
Party4:Alternative for Germany
Last Election4:Did not exist
Seats4:16
Seat Change4: 16
Popular Vote4:626,756
Percentage4:7.4%
Swing4:New party
Candidate5:Sylvia Löhrmann
Party5:Alliance 90/The Greens
Last Election5:29 seats, 11.3%
Seats5:14
Seat Change5: 15
Popular Vote5:539,062
Percentage5:6.4%
Swing5: 4.9pp
Map Size:400px
Government
Before Election:Second Kraft cabinet
Before Party:SPD–Green
Posttitle:Government after election
After Election:Laschet cabinet
After Party:CDUFDP

The 2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 14 May 2017 to elect the members of the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The incumbent coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by Minister-President Hannelore Kraft was defeated. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) became the largest party and formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP). CDU leader Armin Laschet was subsequently elected Minister-President.[1] [2]

This election was the last election in which an incumbent Minister-President was defeated until the 2022 Saarland state election.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.

NameIdeologyLeader(s)2012 result
Votes (%)Seats
bgcolor= SPDSocial Democratic Party of Germany
Social democracyHannelore Kraft39.1%
bgcolor= CDUChristian Democratic Union of Germany
Christian democracyArmin Laschet26.3%
bgcolor= GrüneAlliance 90/The Greens
Green politicsSylvia Löhrmann11.3%
bgcolor= FDPFree Democratic Party
Classical liberalismChristian Lindner8.6%
bgcolor= PiratenPirate Party Germany
Pirate politicsMichele Marsching7.8%

Opinion polling

Party polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
SPDCDUGrüneFDPPiratenLinkeAfDOthersLead
2017 state electiondata-sort-value="2017-05-14"14 May 201731.233.06.412.61.04.97.43.51.8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-05-11"8–11 May 20172,40231326.513.566.54.51
YouGovdata-sort-value="2017-05-11"8–10 May 20171,01730317928941
INSAdata-sort-value="2017-05-09"3–8 May 20171,13933307135753
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-05-05"2–4 May 20171,03232327.512664.5data-sort-value="0"Tie
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-05-04"2–3 May 20171,00032317135841
Forsadata-sort-value="2017-04-28"20–25 Apr 20171,00335296126756
YouGovdata-sort-value="2017-04-25"12–19 Apr 20171,051362767281139
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-04-23"18–20 Apr 20171,0033434610583data-sort-value="0"Tie
INSAdata-sort-value="2017-04-11"30 Mar–4 Apr 20171,000372861051049
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-03-19"14–16 Mar 20171,0013730695947
Forsadata-sort-value="2017-03-15"20 Feb–10 Mar 20171,040402661157514
INSAdata-sort-value="2017-03-05"22 Feb–3 Mar 20171,1993827710411311
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-02-19"14–16 Feb 20171,00237307761037
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-02-10"6–8 Feb 20171,1163632785934
YouGovdata-sort-value="2017-01-27"13–20 Jan 20171,072313111715122data-sort-value="0"Tie
Forsadata-sort-value="2017-03-15"9–20 Jan 20171,0723529896856
Emniddata-sort-value="2017-01-21"19 Dec 2016–18 Jan 20171,070323010871032
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2016-10-30"25–27 Oct 20161,0023232127593data-sort-value="0"Tie
YouGovdata-sort-value="2016-09-15"31 Aug–7 Sep 20161,0223428109511?6
Mentefactumdata-sort-value="2016-09-11"30 Aug–6 Sep 20161,004312711851334
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2016-05-22"17–20 May 20161,00231311086122data-sort-value="0"Tie
INSAdata-sort-value="2016-04-29"21–28 Apr 20161,0972932137.55.5943
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2016-02-21"16–18 Feb 20161,00231339771032
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2015-12-13"8–10 Dec 20151,00034351065551
Forsadata-sort-value="2015-12-02"8–27 Nov 20151,2113929107254410
YouGovdata-sort-value="2015-11-26"11–19 Nov 20151,022343011515954
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2015-09-06"1–3 Sep 20151,00134361156352
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2015-06-21"16–18 Jun 20151,000363510615431
Forsadata-sort-value="2015-06-02"18–28 May 20151,09736321194354
INSAdata-sort-value="2015-05-27"21–22 May 2015500343812616214
YouGovdata-sort-value="2014-12-18"3–10 Dec 20141,015343512525721
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2014-12-07"2–4 Dec 20141,000353610515531
Forsadata-sort-value="2014-11-14"3–10 Nov 20141,0823633104256?3
Forsadata-sort-value="2014-09-02"20–29 Aug 20141,5063932105344?7
YouGovdata-sort-value="2014-05-20"May 20141,006393410525??5
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2014-05-11"5–8 May 20141,000373610525321
YouGovdata-sort-value="2013-12-11"25 Nov–1 Dec 20131,0553834104?5??4
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2013-12-08"3–5 Dec 20131,00037388435321
YouGovdata-sort-value="2013-09-19"5–16 Sep 20131,051383511424??3
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2013-09-07"3–5 Sep 20131,00940369434224
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2013-05-26"21–23 May 20131,00139351442334
YouGovdata-sort-value="2013-04-25"12–22 Apr 20131,104423112623411
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2012-12-16"11–14 Dec 20121,00140321254438
YouGovdata-sort-value="2012-09-27"4–24 Sep 20121,02039301355449
YouGovdata-sort-value="2012-06-13"1–11 Jun 20121,061382912773?9
2012 state electiondata-sort-value="2012-05-13"13 May 201239.126.311.38.67.82.54.312.8

Minister-President polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateLead

SPD

CDU
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-05-14"14 May 2017483711
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-05-14"14 May 2017493811
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-05-11"11 May 201746388
YouGovdata-sort-value="2017-05-11"11 May 2017342113
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-05-05"5 May 2017513318
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-05-04"4 May 2017492821
Forsadata-sort-value="2017-04-28"28 April 2017492524
YouGovdata-sort-value="2017-04-25"25 April 2017422121
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-04-23"23 April 2017533122
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-03-19"19 March 2017572235
Forsadata-sort-value="2017-03-15"15 March 2017552233
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2017-02-19"19 February 2017582632
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2017-02-10"10 February 2017552926
YouGovdata-sort-value="2017-01-27"27 January 2017461630
YouGovdata-sort-value="2016-10-30"30 October 2016562036
Mentefactumdata-sort-value="2016-09-11"11 September 2016553025
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2016-05-22"22 May 2016582830
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2015-12-13"13 December 2015612140
Forsadata-sort-value="2015-12-02"2 December 2015631845
YouGovdata-sort-value="2015-11-26"26 November 2015501535
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2015-06-21"21 June 2015641747
YouGovdata-sort-value="2014-12-18"18 December 2014481929
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2014-12-07"7 December 2014591841
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2014-05-11"11 May 2014611843

Results

The CDU became the largest party with 33% of the vote. The governing SPD and Greens suffered a 13-point swing between them, the latter losing half their seats. The FDP achieved their best ever result in the state at 12.6%, and AfD debuted at 7.4%. The Pirates collapsed to just 1% of the vote and were ousted from the Landtag. The Left doubled their vote share to 4.9%, but fell just short of the threshold.

Notes and References

  1. Web site: CDU und FDP einigen sich auf Koalitionsvertrag. WDR. 17 June 2017. German.
  2. Web site: Krug. Christian. Martin Schulz's SPD shut out in North Rhine Westphalia. Politico EU.