| Election Name: | 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary |
| Country: | Vermont |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2012 United States presidential election in Vermont#Republican primary |
| Previous Year: | 2012 |
| Next Election: | 2020 Vermont Republican presidential primary |
| Next Year: | 2020 |
| Outgoing Members: | VA |
| Elected Members: | KS |
| Votes For Election: | 16 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention |
| Candidate1: | Donald Trump |
| Home State1: | New York |
| Color1: | 283681 |
| Delegate Count1: | 8 |
| Popular Vote1: | 19,974 |
| Percentage1: | 32.34% |
| Candidate2: | John Kasich |
| Home State2: | Ohio |
| Color2: | 00B487 |
| Delegate Count2: | 8 |
| Popular Vote2: | 18,534 |
| Percentage2: | 30.01% |
| Candidate4: | Marco Rubio |
| Home State4: | Florida |
| Color4: | C60E3B |
| Delegate Count4: | 0 |
| Popular Vote4: | 11,781 |
| Percentage4: | 19.08% |
| Candidate5: | Ted Cruz |
| Home State5: | Texas |
| Color5: | d4aa00 |
| Delegate Count5: | 0 |
| Popular Vote5: | 5,932 |
| Percentage5: | 9.61% |
| Map Size: | 250px |
The 2016 Vermont Republican presidential primary was held on March 1, 2016, along with ten other state nominating contests during Super Tuesday.
Donald Trump held a big edge in Vermont polls, with John Kasich and Marco Rubio splitting much of the rest of the vote.[1] However, on election day, Donald Trump only narrowly won the popular vote by 2.3%, and tied with John Kasich in the delegate count.
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results[2] | March 1, 2016 | Donald Trump32.34% | John Kasich30.01% | Marco Rubio19.08% | Ted Cruz 9.61%, Ben Carson 4.13%, Jeb Bush 1.79%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Chris Christie 0.58%, Carly Fiorina 0.34%, Rick Santorum 0.27% | ||
| Castleton University/VermontPublic Radio[3] Margin of error: ± 9.01% Sample size: 118 | February 3–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32.4% | Marco Rubio16.9% | Ted Cruz10.5% | John Kasich 10.0%, Jeb Bush 7.7%, Ben Carson 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Carly Fiorina 1.0%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Someone else 3.3%, Not sure/Don't know 12.1% |
| Candidate | Vote[4] | Delegates[5] | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % | ||||
| Donald Trump | 19,974 | 32.52 | 8 | |
| John Kasich | 18,534 | 30.17 | 8 | |
| Marco Rubio | 11,781 | 19.18 | 0 | |
| Ted Cruz | 5,932 | 9.66 | 0 | |
| Ben Carson | 2,551 | 4.15 | 0 | |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 1,106 | 1.80 | 0 | |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 423 | 0.69 | 0 | |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 361 | 0.59 | 0 | |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 212 | 0.35 | 0 | |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 164 | 0.27 | 0 | |
| Write-ins | 390 | 0.63 | 0 | |
| Total valid votes | 61,428 | 100% | 16 | |
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 20% or more of the vote proportionally.
Vermont's voter base is much more moderate and irreligious than the Southern Super Tuesday contests.[6] Exit polls by Edison Research showed this benefitted Trump and Kasich: Trump carried somewhat conservative voters with 35% of the vote, but John Kasich won moderates with 40% to Trump's 34%.[7] Kasich did particularly well in the populous Burlington metro, holding Trump to a narrow margin statewide.
Turnout dropped in the Vermont Republican primary compared with 2012, as some registered Republicans crossed over to vote for favorite son Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary.