2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina explained

See main article: 2016 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Country:North Carolina
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Previous Year:2012
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Next Election:2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Next Year:2020
Turnout:65.20% [1]
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:New York
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:15
Popular Vote1:2,362,631
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Hillary Clinton
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:New York
Running Mate2:Tim Kaine
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:2,189,316
President
Before Election:Barack Obama
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Carolina held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Carolina had 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the state with 49.83% of the vote, a small decrease from Mitt Romney's vote percentage in 2012. However, he won by a margin of 3.66%, an increase of 1.62% compared to Romney's margin in 2012. In contrast, Clinton obtained 46.17% of the vote, a decrease of over 2% in 2012 when Obama won 48.35% of the vote. Although both candidates saw decreases in vote share compared to 2012, Trump and Clinton both obtained more votes than the previous election's candidates due to a higher voter turnout in this election. Trump flipped seven counties to the Republican column and was the first Republican to win Robeson, Richmond, and Gates counties since Richard Nixon in 1972. Clinton flipped just one county to the Democratic column, Watauga County, home to Boone.

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Watauga County since James A. Garfield in 1880, as well as the first to do so without carrying Bumcombe or Forsyth counties since Calvin Coolidge in 1924, the first to do so without carrying Wake County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, and the first to do so without carrying Pitt or Wilson counties since Richard Nixon in 1968. It was also the first time since 1980 that North Carolina voted more Democratic than Ohio.

Primary elections

The Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian primaries were on March 15, 2016. In North Carolina, registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3] [4]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Hillary] Clinton holds a commanding lead of 57% to 34% among likely Democratic voters over U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont."[5]

Results

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]

Polling

According to a WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA poll conducted the week before the primary: "[Donald] Trump tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 41% to 27% among likely GOP voters. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ohio Gov. John Kasich trail far behind, at 14% and 11%, respectively."[5]

Results

Trump managed to pull off a closer than expected win due to both Cruz and his campaigns performances in different metropolitan areas. Trump was strongest in the Charlotte, Fayetteville and Wilmington areas. Cruz did best in Greensboro, Asheville and the Research Triangle region, where North Carolina's major colleges and capital of Raleigh are located.[7]

Libertarian primary

Election Name:2016 North Carolina Libertarian primary
Country:North Carolina
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Next Election:2020 United States presidential election in North Carolina#Libertarian primary
Next Year:2020
Image1:Garyjohnsonphoto - modified.jpg
Candidate1:Gary Johnson
Home State1:New Mexico
Popular Vote1:2,414
Percentage1:41.48%
Map Size:335px
Candidate2:No Preference
Popular Vote2:2,067
Percentage2:35.52%
Color1:1F75FE
Color4:5F75FE
Color2:000000
Candidate4:John Hale
Candidate5:Joy Waymire
Color5:FFC0CB
Home State4:Kentucky
Home State5:California
Popular Vote4:329
Popular Vote5:268
Percentage4:5.65%
Percentage5:4.61%

Eleven candidates appeared on the Libertarian presidential primary ballot:

Results

North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary, March 15, 2016[8]
CandidateVotesPercentage
Gary Johnson2,41441.48%
No Preference2,06735.52%
John David Hale3295.65%
Joy Waymire2684.61%
Austin Petersen1893.25%
Darryl Perry1182.03%
Steve Kerbel1091.87%
Derrick Michael Reid741.27%
Cecil Ince721%
Jack Robinson Jr.701.20%
Marc Allan Feldman661.13%
Rhett Smith430.74%
Total5,739100%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
CNN[9] November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[10] November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[11] November 8, 2016
NBC[12] November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[13] November 8, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[14] November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] November 7, 2016

Polling

Up until the summer of 2016, both Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump were each winning polls, with Trump leading slightly. From late June 2016 to mid September 2016, Clinton gained momentum and had won most polls conducted in the summer. From mid September 2016 to late October, Clinton's momentum increased as she won every poll but one. The latest polls showed a near tie, with both almost evenly matched. The average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton ahead 46% to 45%.[16] Interestingly, while she had a head-to-head lead in the last polls against Trump, polls with Gary Johnson showed the race a lot closer. The last New York Times poll conducted showed Trump and Clinton tied with 44% for each.[16]

Candidates

In addition to Clinton, Johnson and Trump, Green Party nominee Jill Stein was granted write-in status by the North Carolina State Board of Elections, the only write-in candidate to qualify.[17] [18]

Results

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Hillary Clinton
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Alamance38,81554.55%29,83341.93%2,5093.52%8,98212.62%71,157
Alexander13,89376.04%3,76720.62%6113.34%10,12655.42%18,271
Alleghany3,81471.76%1,30624.57%1953.67%2,50847.19%5,315
Anson4,50642.73%5,85955.56%1801.71%-1,353-12.83%10,545
Ashe9,41270.11%3,50026.07%5123.82%5,91244.04%13,424
Avery6,29876.35%1,68920.48%2623.17%4,60955.87%8,249
Beaufort14,54360.75%8,76436.61%6312.64%5,77924.14%23,938
Bertie3,45636.97%5,77861.82%1131.21%-2,322-24.85%9,347
Bladen8,55053.78%7,05844.40%2891.82%1,4929.38%15,897
Brunswick42,72062.50%23,28234.06%2,3493.44%19,43828.44%68,351
Buncombe55,71640.10%75,45254.30%7,7795.60%-19,736-14.20%138,947
Burke26,23867.42%11,25128.91%1,4313.67%14,98738.51%38,920
Cabarrus53,81957.69%35,52138.08%3,9494.23%18,29819.61%93,289
Caldwell26,62173.30%8,42523.20%1,2743.50%18,19650.10%36,320
Camden3,54670.83%1,27425.45%1863.72%2,27245.38%5,006
Carteret26,56970.32%9,93926.31%1,2733.37%16,63044.01%37,781
Caswell6,02654.44%4,79243.29%2522.27%1,23411.15%11,070
Catawba48,32466.79%21,21629.32%2,8113.89%27,10837.47%72,351
Chatham17,10542.92%21,06552.86%1,6794.22%-3,960-9.94%39,849
Cherokee10,84476.47%2,86020.17%4773.36%7,98456.30%14,181
Chowan4,01455.53%2,99241.39%2223.08%1,02214.14%7,228
Clay4,43773.83%1,36722.75%2063.42%3,07051.08%6,010
Cleveland28,47963.75%14,96433.50%1,2302.75%13,51530.25%44,673
Columbus14,27260.14%9,06338.19%3971.67%5,20921.95%23,732
Craven27,73159.00%17,63037.51%1,6403.49%10,10121.49%47,001
Cumberland51,26540.21%71,60556.16%4,6363.63%-20,340-15.95%127,506
Currituck9,16372.33%2,91322.99%5934.68%6,25049.34%12,669
Dare11,46058.44%7,22236.83%9274.73%4,23821.61%19,609
Davidson54,31772.56%18,10924.19%2,4303.25%36,20848.37%74,856
Davie15,60271.71%5,27024.22%8844.07%10,33247.49%21,756
Duplin12,21758.58%8,28339.72%3561.70%3,93418.86%20,856
Durham28,35018.16%121,25077.66%6,5344.18%-92,900-59.50%156,134
Edgecombe8,26133.20%16,22465.19%4011.61%-7,963-31.99%24,886
Forsyth75,97542.61%94,46452.98%7,8734.41%-18,489-10.37%178,312
Franklin16,36853.90%12,87442.39%1,1263.71%3,49411.51%30,368
Gaston61,79864.09%31,17732.33%3,4563.58%30,62131.76%96,431
Gates2,87453.30%2,38544.23%1332.47%4899.07%5,392
Graham3,28378.77%76818.43%1172.80%2,51560.34%4,168
Granville13,59149.69%12,90947.19%8533.12%6822.50%27,353
Greene4,37454.03%3,60544.53%1161.44%7699.50%8,095
Guilford98,06238.10%149,24857.98%10,0953.92%-51,186-19.88%257,405
Halifax9,03135.88%15,74862.57%3881.55%-6,717-26.69%25,167
Harnett27,61459.95%16,73736.33%1,7143.72%10,87723.62%46,065
Haywood18,92961.60%10,47334.08%1,3254.32%8,45627.52%30,727
Henderson35,80961.55%19,82734.08%2,5404.37%15,98227.47%58,176
Hertford3,09930.42%6,91067.84%1771.74%-3,811-37.42%10,186
Hoke7,76042.57%9,72653.35%7444.08%-1,966-10.78%18,230
Hyde1,28855.90%96541.88%512.22%32314.02%2,304
Iredell54,75466.31%24,73429.96%3,0793.73%30,02036.35%82,567
Jackson9,87052.74%7,71341.22%1,1306.04%2,15711.52%18,713
Johnston54,37263.29%28,36233.01%3,1753.70%26,01030.28%85,909
Jones2,97457.92%2,06540.21%961.87%90917.71%5,135
Lee13,71254.66%10,46941.74%9033.60%3,24312.92%25,084
Lenoir13,61350.78%12,63447.13%5602.09%9793.65%26,807
Lincoln28,80671.97%9,89724.73%1,3203.30%18,90947.24%40,023
Macon12,12768.38%4,87627.50%7314.12%7,25140.88%17,734
Madison6,78360.19%3,92634.84%5604.97%2,85725.35%11,269
Martin5,89749.29%5,84648.86%2211.85%510.43%11,964
McDowell14,56873.30%4,66723.48%6403.22%9,90149.82%19,875
Mecklenburg155,51832.89%294,56262.29%22,7774.82%-139,044-29.40%472,857
Mitchell6,28277.59%1,59619.71%2182.70%4,68657.88%8,096
Montgomery7,13061.79%4,15035.96%2602.25%2,98025.83%11,540
Moore30,49062.62%16,32933.54%1,8733.84%14,16129.08%48,692
Nash23,31948.92%23,23548.75%1,1112.33%840.17%47,665
New Hanover55,34449.46%50,97945.56%5,5824.98%4,3653.90%111,905
Northampton3,58236.37%6,14462.39%1221.24%-2,562-26.02%9,848
Onslow37,12264.97%17,51430.65%2,4994.38%19,60834.32%57,135
Orange18,55722.54%59,92372.78%3,8604.68%-41,366-50.24%82,340
Pamlico4,25861.98%2,44835.63%1642.39%1,81026.35%6,870
Pasquotank8,18047.04%8,61549.54%5963.42%-435-2.50%17,391
Pender17,63963.26%9,35433.54%8923.20%8,28529.72%27,885
Perquimans4,17762.27%2,31934.57%2123.16%1,85827.70%6,708
Person11,18557.02%7,83339.93%5973.05%3,35217.09%19,615
Pitt35,69144.32%41,82451.94%3,0123.74%-6,133-7.62%80,527
Polk6,76861.90%3,73534.16%4313.94%3,03327.74%10,934
Randolph49,43076.55%13,19420.43%1,9513.02%36,23656.12%64,575
Richmond10,38353.72%8,50143.98%4442.30%1,8829.74%19,328
Robeson20,76250.82%19,01646.54%1,0802.64%1,7464.28%40,858
Rockingham26,83063.46%14,22833.65%1,2202.89%12,60229.81%42,278
Rowan42,81066.51%19,40030.14%2,1593.35%23,41036.37%64,369
Rutherford21,87172.16%7,51224.79%9243.05%14,35947.37%30,307
Sampson14,83857.23%10,54740.68%5432.09%4,29116.55%25,928
Scotland6,25644.92%7,31952.55%3532.53%-1,063-7.63%13,928
Stanly21,96473.42%7,09423.71%8592.87%14,87049.71%29,917
Stokes17,11675.90%4,66520.69%7693.41%12,45155.21%22,550
Surry23,67173.52%7,48823.26%1,0373.22%16,18350.26%32,196
Swain3,56558.21%2,19635.86%3635.93%1,36922.35%6,124
Transylvania10,52058.87%6,55836.70%7914.43%3,96222.17%17,869
Tyrrell97556.07%72041.40%442.53%25514.67%1,739
Union66,70763.10%34,33732.48%4,6664.42%32,37030.62%105,710
Vance7,33236.70%12,22961.22%4162.08%-4,897-24.52%19,977
Wake196,08237.16%302,73657.38%28,8065.46%-106,654-20.22%527,624
Warren3,21432.66%6,41365.16%2152.18%-3,199-32.50%9,842
Washington2,56441.59%3,51056.93%911.48%-946-15.34%6,165
Watauga13,69745.68%14,13847.15%2,1507.17%-441-1.47%29,985
Wayne27,54054.33%21,77042.95%1,3792.72%5,77011.38%50,689
Wilkes23,75275.89%6,63821.21%9062.90%17,11454.68%31,296
Wilson17,53145.97%19,66351.56%9412.47%-2,132-5.59%38,135
Yadkin13,88078.76%3,16017.93%5843.31%10,72060.83%17,624
Yancey6,38564.11%3,19632.09%3793.80%3,18932.02%9,960
Totals2,362,63149.83%2,189,31646.17%189,6174.00%173,3153.66%4,741,564

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 10 of North Carolina's 13 congressional districts.

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
30%67%G. K. Butterfield
54%42%Renee Ellmers
George Holding
60%36%Walter B. Jones
27%68%David Price
57%39%Virginia Foxx
56%41%Mark Walker
57%39%David Rouzer
56%41%Richard Hudson
54%42%Robert Pittenger
60%36%Patrick McHenry
62%33%Mark Meadows
28%68%Alma Adams
53%44%Ted Budd

Analysis

Prior to the 2016 election, North Carolina had been a Republican stronghold since 1968 with the state voting Democratic only once between then and 2008. In 2008, North Carolina voted Democratic for only the second time in 40 years. Although the state returned to the Republican column in 2012, when the party's nominee, Mitt Romney, carried the state, it did so only narrowly, cementing its new status as a battleground state. Throughout the 2016 campaign, North Carolina was considered by most a tossup state, with the outcome going into election night heavily debated. The Trump campaign saw winning North Carolina as crucial in order for Trump to win the Electoral College; conversely, the Clinton campaign felt that it was vital for them to win the state to block Trump's path to an Electoral College win. Both Trump and Clinton campaigned in the state shortly before the general election.[19] [20]

Despite winning the state, Trump, in some ways, under-performed in comparison to Romney in 2012. Romney won a majority of the vote in 2012 with 50.4% while Trump only managed a plurality of 49.8%. Similarly, Clinton also under-performed in comparison to Obama, with Clinton winning only 46.2% in comparison to Obama's 48.35%. This situation was the result of the spike in votes for third party candidates in the state as 4% of North Carolinians voted for a candidate other than the Democratic and Republican nominees in 2016 as opposed to just 1.26% in 2012.

An increase in turnout in North Carolina allowed both Trump and Clinton to out-perform Romney and Obama in terms of the total votes each candidate received. In 2016 Trump won around 92,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 while Clinton won around 10,000 more than Obama. Furthermore, Trump also outperformed Romney by winning North Carolina by a greater margin than Romney was able to as Trump won the state over Clinton by 3.7% compared to the 2% margin Romney won over Obama. Trump's win in North Carolina marked the 9th time the state has voted Republican in the last 10 elections and, therefore, the state continues to lean more Republican at the presidential level.

See also

Further reading

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Voter turnout in United States elections .
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. December 18, 2020.
  3. Web site: Binker . Mark . NC approves 27 candidates for presidential primary ballots . WRAL.com . January 5, 2016 . 2016-11-13.
  4. ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/Candidate_Filing/presidentialprimarycandidates.pdf
  5. Web site: Burns . Matthew . WRAL News poll: Trump, Clinton poised to win NC . WRAL.com . March 8, 2016 . 2016-11-13.
  6. Web site: NC SBE Election Contest Details . Er.ncsbe.gov . 2016-11-13.
  7. Web site: Live results from the North Carolina primary. graphics.latimes.com. 2016-04-26.
  8. Web site: NC SBE Contest Results. North Carolina State Board of Elections. Government of North Carolina. March 16, 2016. March 16, 2015.
  9. News: Chalian . David . David Chalian . Road to 270: CNN's new election map . April 17, 2019 . . November 4, 2016.
  10. Web site: 2016 Electoral Scorecard . . April 17, 2019 . en . November 7, 2016 . February 7, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190207225032/https://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard . dead .
  11. Web site: 2016 Predicted Electoral Map . . April 17, 2019.
  12. News: Todd . Chuck . Chuck Todd. NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton . April 17, 2019 . . November 7, 2016 . en.
  13. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House . . April 17, 2019.
  14. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
  15. Web site: Sabato . Larry . November 7, 2016 . Larry Sabato . The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings . . April 17, 2019.
  16. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton.
  17. Web site: NC write-in votes won't count unless they're for Jill Stein. newsobserver.com.
  18. Web site: Your Write-In Vote Might Not Be Counted In NC. wfmynews2.com.
  19. News: Bradner . Eric . Why North Carolina is so important in 2016 . February 10, 2019 . CNN . November 3, 2016.
  20. News: Clinton's North Carolina Firewall . Catanese . David . November 4, 2016 . U.S. News & World Report . February 10, 2019.

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