2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico explained

See main article: 2016 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Previous Year:2012
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Next Election:2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico
Next Year:2020
Turnout:62.36%[1]
Image1:Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee1:Hillary Clinton
Party1:Democratic Party of New Mexico
Home State1:New York
Running Mate1:Tim Kaine
Electoral Vote1:5
Popular Vote1:385,234
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Donald Trump
Party2:Republican Party of New Mexico
Home State2:New York
Running Mate2:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:319,667
Image3:Gary Johnson June 2016.jpg
Nominee3:Gary Johnson
Party3:Libertarian Party of New Mexico
Home State3:New Mexico
Running Mate3:Bill Weld
Electoral Vote3:0
Popular Vote3:74,541
Map Size:265px
President
Before Election:Barack Obama
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Mexico was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Clinton won the state of New Mexico with a plurality, by a margin of 8.2 percentage points. The state had long been considered leaning Democratic, or a state Clinton would win, due to its large population of Hispanic/Latino and Native American voters. Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson achieved 9% in his home state, his best performance of any state, and the Libertarian Party's best performance in any single state since Ed Clark received 11.66% of the vote in Alaska in 1980.[3] Johnson's result was also the best result for a third party or independent candidate in New Mexico since Ross Perot's campaign in 1992.

This is the third time since 1912, when New Mexico attained statehood, that the state voted for a candidate who did not win the Electoral College, the other instances being 1976 and 2000. However, in this election and in 2000, the state did vote for the winner of the popular vote. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Los Alamos County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, as well as the first to do so without carrying Sandoval County since Richard Nixon in 1968.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2016 New Mexico Democratic primary. Four candidates appeared on the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primary ballot:

Republican primary

Twelve candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

Donald Trump, the only candidate with an active campaign, won every delegate from New Mexico.

General election

Polling

Albuquerque Journal October 2, 2016[4]

Albuquerque Journal November 5, 2016[5]

Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. Her margin of victory varied from 2 points to 13 points. The last poll showed Clinton ahead of Trump 46% to 44%, while the RealClearPolitics average of the last three had Clinton leading Trump 45.3% to 40.3% on the day of the election, with Gary Johnson at 9.3% and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 2.3%.[6] Johnson's highest level of support was 25% in a Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll in early September.[7]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times[8] November 6, 2016
CNN[9] November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[10] November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[11] November 8, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[12] November 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[14] November 8, 2016
Fox News[15] November 7, 2016

By county

CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic		Donald Trump
Republican		Gary Johnson
Libertarian		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%%
Bernalillo143,41752.22%94,69834.48%29,68210.81%6,8652.50%48,71917.74%274,662
Catron42720.84%1,46471.45%1115.42%472.29%-1,037-50.61%2,049
Chaves5,53427.30%12,87263.50%1,6097.94%2561.26%-7,338-36.20%20,271
Cibola3,74146.40%3,19539.63%97012.03%1571.95%5466.77%8,063
Colfax2,12939.93%2,58548.48%5279.88%911.71%-456-8.55%5,332
Curry3,12123.34%9,03567.58%9737.28%2411.80%-5,914-44.24%13,370
De Baca19321.21%62068.13%899.78%80.88%-427-46.92%910
Dona Ana37,94753.71%25,37435.92%5,4717.74%1,8562.63%12,57317.79%70,648
Eddy5,03325.59%13,14766.85%1,2756.48%2121.08%-8,114-41.26%19,667
Grant6,27648.99%5,28841.28%8997.02%3482.72%9887.71%12,811
Guadalupe97053.09%59532.57%23813.03%241.31%37520.52%1,827
Harding15629.60%31159.01%5510.44%50.95%-155-29.41%527
Hidalgo78441.88%91048.61%1377.32%412.19%-126-6.73%1,872
Lea3,93022.19%12,49570.55%1,0986.20%1891.07%-8,565-48.36%17,712
Lincoln2,33126.19%5,89666.23%5606.29%1151.29%-3,565-40.04%8,902
Los Alamos5,56251.10%3,35930.86%1,51213.89%4524.15%2,20320.24%10,885
Luna3,19543.80%3,47847.68%4816.59%1411.93%-283-3.88%7,295
McKinley13,57662.55%5,10423.52%2,41211.11%6112.82%8,47239.03%21,703
Mora1,53662.93%66527.24%1947.95%461.88%87135.69%2,441
Otero6,12430.53%11,88759.26%1,6138.04%4362.17%-5,763-28.73%20,060
Quay1,01728.47%2,21261.93%2998.37%441.23%-1,195-33.46%3,572
Rio Arriba9,59264.47%3,59924.19%1,4259.58%2621.76%5,99340.28%14,878
Roosevelt1,45424.44%3,88465.28%4828.10%1302.18%-2,430-40.84%5,950
San Juan12,86527.90%27,94660.61%4,2009.11%10992.38%-15,081-32.71%46,110
San Miguel7,28567.76%2,31321.51%9158.61%2382.21%4,97246.25%10,751
Sandoval27,70744.91%25,90541.99%6,65710.79%1,4212.30%1,8022.92%61,690
Santa Fe50,79371.10%14,33220.06%4,3626.11%1,9472.73%36,46151.04%71,434
Sierra1,61231.11%3,01058.10%4428.53%1172.26%-1,398-26.99%5,181
Socorro3,31348.24%2,61638.09%80211.68%1371.99%69710.15%6,868
Taos10,66869.91%2,72717.87%1,1797.73%6864.50%7,94152.04%15,260
Torrance1,78528.23%3,71458.73%69210.94%1332.10%-1,929-30.50%6,324
Union32018.80%1,21671.45%1347.87%321.88%-896-52.65%1,702
Valencia10,84139.29%13,21547.89%3,04611.04%4901.78%-2,374-8.60%27,592
Total385,23448.26%319,66740.04%74,5419.34%18,8772.36%65,5678.22%798,319

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[16]

By congressional district

Clinton won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[17]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
35%52%Michelle Lujan Grisham
50%40%Steve Pearce
37%52%Ben Ray Luján

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Official Results - General Election - November 8, 2016 . New Mexico Secretary of State . 4 November 2020.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. 19 September 2019. December 18, 2020.
  3. Web site: 2016 Presidential Election Statistics. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. 2018-03-05.
  4. October 2, 2016. Clinton, Trump in tight race in New Mexico. Michael . Coleman . Albuquerque Journal.
  5. November 5, 2016. Journal Poll: Clinton still ahead in NM. Michael . Coleman . Albuquerque Journal.
  6. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton.
  7. Web site: New poll shows how Trump-Clinton matchup is redrawing the electoral map . 2024-08-18 . Washington Post . en.
  8. News: Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours. . . 2016-11-06 . 2016-11-13.
  9. News: Chalian . David . David Chalian. Road to 270: CNN's new election map . March 3, 2019 . . November 4, 2016.
  10. Web site: 2016 Electoral Scorecard . November 7, 2016 . . en . March 3, 2019 . March 1, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190301010353/https://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard . dead .
  11. Web site: 2016 Electoral Map Prediction . November 8, 2016 . . March 3, 2019.
  12. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
  13. Web site: 2016 President . Sabato . Larry J. . Larry Sabato . November 7, 2016 . . March 3, 2019.
  14. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House. RealClearPolitics. 2016-11-13.
  15. Web site: Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge . . 2016-11-07 . 2016-11-13.
  16. News: Bump. Philip. The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election. en-US. The Washington Post. 2020-09-01. 0190-8286.
  17. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. The Cook Political Report.

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