2016 United States presidential election in Montana explained

See main article: 2016 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2016 United States presidential election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States presidential election in Montana
Previous Year:2012
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Next Election:2020 United States presidential election in Montana
Next Year:2020
Turnout:74.44% (of registered voters)[1]
Image1:Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Donald Trump
Party1:Montana Republican Party
Home State1:New York
Running Mate1:Mike Pence
Electoral Vote1:3
Popular Vote1:279,240
Percentage1:56.17%
Nominee2:Hillary Clinton
Party2:Montana Democratic Party
Home State2:New York
Running Mate2:Tim Kaine
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:177,709
Percentage2:35.75%
Image3:Gary Johnson June 2016.jpg
Nominee3:Gary Johnson
Party3:Montana Libertarian Party
Home State3:New Mexico
Running Mate3:Bill Weld
Electoral Vote3:0
Popular Vote3:28,037
Percentage3:5.64%
President
Before Election:Barack Obama
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Donald Trump
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States presidential election in Montana was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Montana has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump carried the state by a 20.4% margin of victory, exceeding Mitt Romney's 13.7% margin in 2012 and John McCain's 2.4% margin in 2008. Republicans have won Montana in every presidential election since 1996. Libertarian nominee and third-party candidate Gary Johnson received 5.6% of the vote.

This was Johnson's fifth strongest state, behind his native New Mexico as well as North Dakota, Alaska, and Oklahoma.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2016 Montana Democratic presidential primary. Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Republican primary

Five candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
CNN[3] November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[4] November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[5] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[6] November 7, 2016
NBC[7] November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[8] November 7, 2016

Results by county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Hillary Clinton
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Beaverhead3,35369.15%1,14323.57%3537.28%2,21045.58%4,849
Big Horn1,85343.73%2,09449.42%2906.85%-241-5.69%4,237
Blaine1,26847.24%1,20244.78%2147.98%662.46%2,684
Broadwater2,34874.94%57318.29%2126.77%1,77556.65%3,133
Carbon3,74862.56%1,82830.51%4156.93%1,92032.05%5,991
Carter67886.26%708.91%384.83%60877.35%786
Cascade19,63256.79%12,17535.22%2,7647.99%7,45721.57%34,571
Chouteau1,67964.50%73228.12%1927.38%94736.38%2,603
Custer3,65770.53%1,17622.68%3526.79%2,48147.85%5,185
Daniels73075.88%16817.46%646.66%56258.42%962
Dawson3,32075.30%78717.85%3026.85%2,53357.45%4,409
Deer Lodge1,76341.92%2,05848.93%3859.15%-295-7.01%4,206
Fallon1,27986.19%15410.38%513.43%1,12575.81%1,484
Fergus4,26973.10%1,20220.58%3696.32%3,06752.52%5,840
Flathead30,24063.67%13,29327.99%3,9638.34%16,94735.68%47,496
Gallatin23,80244.23%24,24645.05%5,77110.72%-444-0.82%53,819
Garfield65390.95%344.74%314.31%61986.21%718
Glacier1,62031.92%3,12161.50%3346.58%-1,501-29.58%5,075
Golden Valley36577.00%7114.98%388.02%29462.02%474
Granite1,19267.08%47226.56%1136.36%72040.52%1,777
Hill3,47853.96%2,37136.79%5969.25%1,10717.17%6,445
Jefferson4,17762.21%1,99829.76%5398.03%2,17932.45%6,714
Judith Basin87272.19%23519.45%1018.36%63752.74%1,208
Lake7,53057.13%4,77636.23%8756.64%2,75420.90%13,181
Lewis and Clark16,89547.87%14,47841.02%3,92311.11%2,4176.85%35,296
Liberty69872.63%20621.44%575.93%49251.19%961
Lincoln6,72972.12%2,04121.88%5606.00%4,68850.24%9,330
Madison3,29769.51%1,18024.88%2665.61%2,11744.63%4,743
McCone86278.72%15414.06%797.22%70864.66%1,095
Meagher72974.62%19319.75%555.63%53654.87%977
Mineral1,33066.10%51925.80%1638.10%81140.30%2,012
Missoula22,25036.64%31,54351.95%6,92911.41%-9,293-15.31%60,722
Musselshell1,96780.58%33213.60%1425.82%1,63566.98%2,441
Park4,98053.21%3,59538.41%7848.38%1,38514.80%9,359
Petroleum27886.34%309.32%144.34%24877.02%322
Phillips1,72379.36%31814.65%1305.99%1,40564.71%2,171
Pondera1,79966.07%73827.10%1866.83%1,06138.97%2,723
Powder River88483.95%12712.06%423.99%75771.89%1,053
Powell2,02972.62%55119.72%2147.66%1,47852.90%2,794
Prairie55680.70%10014.51%334.79%45666.19%689
Ravalli14,81065.66%6,22327.59%1,5236.75%8,58738.07%22,556
Richland3,90880.23%67113.78%2925.99%3,23766.45%4,871
Roosevelt1,79749.21%1,56042.72%2958.07%2376.49%3,652
Rosebud2,25365.25%98728.58%2136.17%1,26636.67%3,453
Sanders4,28672.00%1,21820.46%4497.54%3,06851.54%5,953
Sheridan1,24167.63%47725.99%1176.38%76441.64%1,835
Silver Bow6,37638.76%8,61952.39%1,4578.85%-2,243-13.63%16,452
Stillwater3,66175.13%90818.63%3046.24%2,75356.50%4,873
Sweet Grass1,59575.70%40219.08%1105.22%1,19356.62%2,107
Teton2,17068.07%80825.35%2106.58%1,36242.72%3,188
Toole1,49773.49%40219.73%1386.78%1,09553.76%2,037
Treasure35179.23%5913.32%337.45%29265.91%443
Valley2,69869.29%88622.75%3107.96%1,81246.54%3,894
Wheatland70274.21%17918.92%656.87%52355.29%946
Wibaux46385.58%5510.17%234.25%40875.41%541
Yellowstone40,92058.05%22,17131.45%7,39510.50%18,74926.60%70,486
Totals279,24055.65%177,70935.41%44,8738.94%101,53120.24%501,822

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At-Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

Analysis

Like every Republican nominee since 1996, Donald Trump carried Montana's three electoral votes. He won by a large margin, and he swept most of the plains counties in eastern Montana, traditionally the most conservative part of the state, by staggering margins sometimes exceeding 60 points. The eastern part of the state has benefited from the recent energy boom in neighboring North Dakota, and its populace is suspicious and disapproving of the environmental movement championed by Democrats in recent elections.

Most counties in the western part of the state were also traditionally Republican, with a ranching-based economy heavily dependent on the raising and production of cattle and hay, particularly in the counties bordering Idaho such as Beaverhead County and Ravalli County. However, an influx of retirees from the West Coast have made the western region more competitive in recent elections.[9]

The only significant counties won by Clinton were Missoula County, where the city of Missoula is located, Gallatin County, where Bozeman is located, and Big Horn County and Glacier County, which are both majority Native American. While sweeping most of the rural, majority white conservative counties of the state, Trump also won in Lewis and Clark County where the capital city of Helena is located, in neighboring Cascade County where Great Falls is located, and in Yellowstone County where the city of Billings is located.[10]

Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Gallatin County since William McKinley in 1900.

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Montana Voter Turnout . 2024-02-07 . Montana SoS . en.
  2. Web site: Distribution of Electoral Votes. National Archives and Records Administration. 19 September 2019 . November 29, 2020.
  3. News: Chalian . David . David Chalian. Road to 270: CNN's new election map . 17 February 2019 . . 4 November 2016.
  4. Web site: 2016 Electoral Scorecard . . 17 February 2019 . en . 7 November 2016 . February 7, 2019 . https://web.archive.org/web/20190207225032/https://www.cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard . dead .
  5. Web site: 2016 Predicted Electoral Map . . 17 February 2019.
  6. Web site: Presidential Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . August 16, 2021.
  7. News: Todd . Chuck . Chuck Todd. NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton . 17 February 2019 . . 7 November 2016 . en.
  8. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House . . 17 February 2019.
  9. News: Presidential Geography: Montana. Cohen. Micah. 2012-06-21. FiveThirtyEight. en-US. 2016-11-26.
  10. Web site: Montana Election Results 2016. . 2016-11-26.

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