2016 United States Senate election in Utah explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:2016 United States Senate election in Utah
Country:Utah
Flag Year:2011
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Utah
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2022 United States Senate election in Utah
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:File:Mike Lee, official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Mike Lee
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:760,241
Percentage1:68.15%
Nominee2:Misty Snow
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:301,860
Percentage2:27.06%
Map Size:220px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Mike Lee
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Mike Lee
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries took place on June 28. Misty Snow won the Democratic nomination, becoming the first transgender woman in the history of the United States to become a major party's nominee for the Senate.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Lee won re-election to a second term in office.[2]

Republican primary

It was thought that Lee, a Tea Party Republican, might face a primary challenge from a member of the more establishment wing of the Party following his role in the unpopular 2013 federal government shutdown, which caused his approval ratings to drop precipitously.[3] [4] [5] [6] However, since that time, his approval ratings rose significantly.[7]

Changes to Utah's primary system could adversely affect Lee's chances at renomination.[8] Presently, Utah political parties hold conventions, where delegates attend and vote for candidates. Only if a candidate fails to gain at least 60% of the vote do the top two finishers proceed to a statewide primary election.[8] In 2010, incumbent senator Bob Bennett finished third at the convention behind Lee and businessman Tim Bridgewater and was eliminated, with Lee defeating Bridgewater in the subsequent primary election. Lee's approval rating is much higher among the smaller group of more conservative convention delegates and a recent change in the law, backed by the group Count My Vote, allows candidates to bypass the convention by collecting signatures to advance to the primary.[8] Thus, a less conservative challenger could challenge Lee in the primary, appealing to more moderate Republican and unaffiliated voters, who could participate in the primary.[8] The constitutionality of the changes have been challenged in court by the Utah Republican Party.[8]

One possible challenger to Lee was former governor of Utah and former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt, one of the founders of Count My Vote,[9] though he eventually denied interest in running.[8] [10] An effort to draft Huntsman Sr.'s son, Jon Huntsman Jr., the former governor of Utah, former United States Ambassador to China under Barack Obama and a candidate for President in 2012,[11] was unsuccessful, with Huntsman ruling out a run against Lee.[12]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Candidates

Jonathan Swinton was the first Democrat to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate, filing on August 10.[22] [23] The other candidates filing for the nomination were Craig Oliver, Jade Tuan Quoc Vo, and Misty K. Snow. Snow filed on March 3. Oliver withdrew before the state convention. Vo was eliminated in the first round of balloting.[24]

Swinton faced criticism at the April 23 state convention from delegates who said he was pro-life, a criticism based primarily on Swinton's September 26 op-ed in the Salt Lake Tribune in which he describes himself as a "conservative Democrat" and "pro-life" while also calling for "a full investigation of Planned Parenthood."[25] Swinton tried unsuccessfully to avoid discussing his views on abortion at the state convention.

After two rounds of balloting, neither Snow nor Swinton received the 60% of the vote they needed to secure the Democratic nomination. As a result, the two faced off in a June 28 primary, which Snow won.[26]

Declared

Eliminated at Convention

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

A Dan Jones & Associates poll for UtahPolicy.com showed Snow leading with Democratic voters 33% to Swinton's 20%, as well as with independent voters, 23% to Swinton's 10%. The majority of the voters that were surveyed were undecided. The survey was administered from May 2–10, 2016 to 588 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.04%.[33]

Primary results

Third Party and Independent Candidates

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[36] November 2, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[38] November 3, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[39] November 8, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[40] November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Lee (R)		Misty
Snow (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey[41] November 1–7, 20161,479± 4.6% align=center60%36%—4%
SurveyMonkey[42] October 31–November 6, 20161,428± 4.6% align=center60%36%—4%
CBS News/YouGov[43] November 3–5, 2016762± 4.9% align=center69%23%2%6%
Y2 Analytics (R-Utah Republican Party)[44] November 1–3, 2016500± 4.4% align=center62%22%8%7%
SurveyMonkey[45] October 28–November 3, 20161,327± 4.6% align=center61%35%—4%
Monmouth University[46] October 30–November 2, 2016402± 4.9% align=center61%28%5%5%
SurveyMonkey[47] October 27–November 2, 20161,247± 4.6% align=center61%35%—4%
SurveyMonkey[48] October 26–November 1, 20161,057± 4.6% align=center61%34%—5%
HeatStreet/Rasmussen[49] October 29–31, 2016750± 4.0% align=center59%27%5%7%
SurveyMonkey[50] October 25–31, 20161,078± 4.6% align=center62%34%—4%
HeatStreet/Rasmussen[51] October 14–16, 2016750± 4.0% align=center57%25%8%10%
Monmouth University[52] October 10–12, 2016403± 4.9% align=center60%31%3%6%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[53] September 1–9, 2016605± 4.0% align=center60%23%7%10%
Public Policy Polling[54] August 19–21, 20161,018± 3.1% align=center51%21%8%20%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[55] July 18–August 4, 2016858± 3.3% align=center57%22%9%12%
SurveyUSA[56] June 6–8, 20161,238± 2.8% align=center51%37%4%8%

with Jonathan Swinton

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Lee (R)		Jonathan
Swinton (D)		OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAJune 6–8, 20161,238± 2.8% align=center50%39%3%7%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[57] March 23–April 5, 2016600± 4.0% align=center54%28%—18%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[58] September 8–17, 2015604± 4.0% align=center55%25%4%17%

with Jim Matheson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Lee (R)		Jim
Matheson (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingAugust 19–21, 20161,018± 3.1% align=center44%37%5%14%
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[59] March 30–April 7, 2015601± 4.0% align=center48%42%—10%

with Doug Owens

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Lee (R)		Doug
Owens (D)		OtherUndecided
UtahPolicy/Dan Jones[60] May 4–12, 2015803± 3.5% align=center55%36%—10%

Open primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Lee (R)		Jim
Matheson (D)		Ben
McAdams (D)		Doug
Owens (D)		Josh
Romney (R)		Thomas
Wright (R)		Undecided
UtahPolicy/Dan JonesMarch 30–April 7, 2015601± 4.0% align=center33%20%5%8%20%2%12%

Results

By congressional district

Lee won all 4 congressional districts.[61]

DistrictLeeSnowRepresentative
72%23%Rob Bishop
63%31%Chris Stewart
74%22%Jason Chaffetz
63%32%Mia Love

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Two transgender candidates named 'Misty' win primaries . Nelson . Louis . June 29, 2016 . June 29, 2016 . Politico.
  2. Web site: GOP Delegates Give Rousing Reception to Sen. Mike Lee . Bob Bernick . Utah Policy . April 26, 2014 . December 12, 2014.
  3. News: Most Utahns disapprove of Sen. Mike Lee, want him to compromise . https://web.archive.org/web/20131010022923/http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/56980406-90/compromise-lee-monson-percent.html.csp . Robert Gehrke . . October 10, 2013 . October 10, 2013 . November 8, 2014.
  4. News: In Utah, tea party favorite Sen. Lee faces GOP backlash over government shutdown . Philip Rucker . . October 22, 2013 . November 8, 2014.
  5. Web site: Senator Lee and the Shutdown . Quin Monson . Utah Data Points . October 9, 2013 . November 8, 2014.
  6. Web site: Tea partier braces for primary challenge from the establishment . Manu Raju . . December 22, 2014 . December 22, 2014.
  7. Web site: Poll shows rebound in Utah's Sen. Mike Lee's approval rating . MATT CANHAM . . September 29, 2014 . April 14, 2015.
  8. News: Mike Lee could be vulnerable if Count My Vote changes stick . Robert Gehrke . . December 11, 2014 . December 12, 2014.
  9. Web site: Bob Bernick's Notebook - Could Republicans Challenge Lee From His Left? . Bob Bernick . Utah Policy . December 7, 2012 . December 12, 2014 .
  10. Web site: A 2016 Leavitt Campaign Not Likely . Bob Bernick . Utah Policy . June 9, 2014 . December 12, 2014.
  11. Web site: Huntsman could run against Lee in 2016 Senate race, Republicans say . Lisa Riley Roche . KSL.com . February 16, 2015 . February 18, 2015.
  12. News: Huntsman: I won't challenge Sen. Mike Lee . Lisa Riley Roche . . February 17, 2015 . February 17, 2015.
  13. News: Abby Livingston . Next Utah Races to Watch Are for Senate . April 3, 2014 . Roll Call . April 2, 2014.
  14. Web site: Poll: Herbert's Approval Ratings Remain High; Lt. Gov. Cox Relatively Unknown . Utah Policy . Bernick . Bob . January 21, 2015 . December 19, 2015.
  15. Web site: Former Romney finance director courting challenger to Sen. Mike Lee . April 25, 2015 . April 27, 2015 . Lisa Riley . Roche . KSL-TV.
  16. Web site: Provo businessman declines push to run against Sen. Mike Lee . April 28, 2015 . April 29, 2015 . Lisa Riley . Roche . Deseret News.
  17. Web site: Kirk Jowers leaves U.'s Hinckley Institute for job in private sector . April 16, 2015 . May 30, 2015 . Lisa Riley . Roche . KSL-TV.
  18. Web site: Newly selected UCAT president declines position, accepts counteroffer . . Jacobsen . Morgan . November 24, 2015 . December 19, 2015.
  19. Web site: Sean Reyes takes oath of office as Utah's top lawman . . January 5, 2015 . May 30, 2015 . October 18, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20171018084844/http://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/sean-reyes-takes-oath-of-office-as-utah-s-top/article_8770f1e3-47d6-54c8-a0f0-e046d84b0736.html . dead .
  20. News: Lisa Riley Roche . April 21, 2015 . Josh Romney: I won't run against Sen. Mike Lee, but another Republican should . Deseret News .
  21. Web site: Mike Lee could be a lock for re-election to Senate . April 12, 2015 . May 30, 2015 . Matt . Canham . The Salt Lake Tribune.
  22. Web site: 1st in Run Against Senator Lee is a Washington Outsider and Democrat . Nelson . Bob . kuer.org . August 17, 2015 . April 28, 2016.
  23. Web site: Details for Candidate ID : S6UT00238 . Federal Election Commission . July 3, 2016.
  24. Web site: Weinholtz wins Dem nomination in Utah governor's race, says wife under investigation for pot possession . Tribune . Matt Canham The Salt Lake . The Salt Lake Tribune . en-US . April 28, 2016.
  25. Web site: Op-ed: Shutting down the government is no way to lead . Swinton . Jonathan . The Salt Lake Tribune . en-US . April 28, 2016.
  26. Web site: Utah Dems nominate Weinholtz to run for governor . Leonard . Wendy . April 23, 2016 . DeseretNews.com . April 28, 2016.
  27. Web site: 2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections . elections.utah.gov . April 28, 2016 . October 9, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161009084527/https://elections.utah.gov/election-resources/2016-candidate-filings . dead .
  28. Web site: Sen. Mike Lee's first challenger is marriage therapist Jonathan Swinton, an untested Democrat . . Canham . Matt . August 17, 2015 . August 19, 2015.
  29. Web site: 2016 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections . elections.utah.gov . April 28, 2016 . October 9, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161009084527/https://elections.utah.gov/election-resources/2016-candidate-filings . dead .
  30. Web site: 16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate . December 29, 2014 . December 29, 2014 . . Cheney . Kyle.
  31. Web site: Poll: Josh Romney would be a tough opponent for Sen. Mike Lee . . Riley Roche . Lisa . April 8, 2015 . August 19, 2015.
  32. Web site: Doug Owens announces another run for congress . July 21, 2015 . July 21, 2015 . KSL News . Roche . Lisa Riley.
  33. Web site: Poll: Most Voters Undecided Between Snow and Swinton . Schott . Bryan . utahpolicy.com . May 13, 2016 . May 16, 2016.
  34. Web site: Utah Sen. Mike Lee on track to win second term, new poll shows. KUTV . August 11, 2016 . September 2, 2016 . Daniel . Woodruff .
  35. https://www.c-span.org/video/?416756-1/utah-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
  36. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
  37. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
  38. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
  39. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
  40. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
  41. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
  42. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
  43. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/jmei6e535m/FinalYouGov2016.pdf CBS News/YouGov
  44. http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/UTY2161103.pdf Y2 Analytics (R-Utah Republican Party)
  45. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
  46. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_110316/ Monmouth University
  47. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
  48. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
  49. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/utah/election_2016_utah_president HeatStreet/Rasmussen
  50. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
  51. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/utah/election_2016_utah_senate HeatStreet/Rasmussen
  52. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_101316/ Monmouth University
  53. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/10860-mike-lee-s-lead-over-misty-snow-grows-to-37-points UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  54. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_UT_82316.pdf Public Policy Polling
  55. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/10449-mike-lee-leads-misty-snow-by-35-points-in-utahpolicy-com-dan-jones-associates-poll UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  56. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=58873557-0aca-4b92-9be8-a4982b0a744d SurveyUSA
  57. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9321-poll-lee-54-swinton-28 UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  58. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/7152-poll-mike-lee-55-jonathan-swinton-25 UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  59. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/5328-poll-lee-would-top-matheson-in-2016 UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  60. http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/5781-poll-lee-55-owens-36-in-hypothetical-u-s-senate-matchup UtahPolicy/Dan Jones
  61. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-18 . Daves Redistricting.

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