2016 United States Senate election in Ohio explained
See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.
Election Name: | 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio |
Country: | Ohio |
Type: | presidential |
Ongoing: | no |
Previous Election: | 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio |
Previous Year: | 2010 |
Next Election: | 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio |
Next Year: | 2022 |
Election Date: | November 8, 2016 |
Image1: | File:Rob Portman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg |
Nominee1: | Rob Portman |
Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
Popular Vote1: | 3,118,567 |
Percentage1: | 58.03% |
Nominee2: | Ted Strickland |
Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Popular Vote2: | 1,996,908 |
Percentage2: | 37.16% |
U.S. Senator |
Before Election: | Rob Portman |
Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
After Election: | Rob Portman |
After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman faced former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.
Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a potential Democratic pickup, with some early polls showing Strickland ahead, but Portman attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign, and ultimately won re-election to a second term in a landslide, winning 58% of the vote. His vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record set in his 2004 re-election.
Republican primary
Republican Senator Rob Portman ran for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3] [4] [5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3] [6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2] [7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, said that they were unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8] [9]
Candidates
Declared
- Rob Portman, incumbent senator.[2]
- Don Elijah Eckhart, independent candidate for OH-15 in 2008[10]
Disqualified
- Melissa Strzala, Tea Party activist (failed to gather enough valid signatures)[11]
Declined
Results
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
Withdrawn
Declined
- Joyce Beatty, U.S. Representative[16] [22]
- John Boccieri, former U.S. Representative[16] [23]
- Jennifer Brunner, judge on the Ohio Tenth District Court of Appeals, former Ohio Secretary of State and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010[16] [20] [24]
- Michael B. Coleman, Mayor of Columbus[16] [25] [26]
- Richard Cordray, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, former Ohio Attorney General and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000[16]
- Connie Pillich, former state representative and nominee for Ohio State Treasurer in 2014[3] [27]
- Tim Ryan, U.S. Representative[28]
- Betty Sutton, Administrator of the Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation and former U.S. Representative[16] [20]
- Nina Turner, former state senator and nominee for Ohio Secretary of State in 2014[3] [29]
- Nan Whaley, Mayor of Dayton[16] [30]
Polling
Results
Green primary
Candidates
Declared
- Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist[32]
Results
General election
Candidates
- Rob Portman (R), incumbent senator
- Ted Strickland (D), former governor of Ohio and former U.S. Representative
- Joe DeMare (G), factory worker and environmentalist
- Scott Rupert (I), truck driver and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[33]
- Tom Connors (I)
- James Stahl (Write-in)
Debates
Dates | Location | Portman | Strickland | Link |
---|
October 14, 2016 | Youngstown, Ohio | Participant | Participant | align=left | [34] |
October 17, 2016 | Columbus, Ohio | Participant | Participant | align=left | [35] |
October 20, 2016 | Cleveland, Ohio | Participant | Participant | align=left | [36] | |
Predictions
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rob Portman (R) | Ted Strickland (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|
SurveyMonkey[42] | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,860 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey[43] | Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 | 2,530 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
Emerson College[44] | November 4–5, 2016 | 900 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 49% | 28% | 11% | 12% |
The Columbus Dispatch[45] | Oct 27–Nov 5, 2016 | 1,151 | ± 2.9% | align=center | 58% | 37% | — | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov[46] | November 2–4, 2016 | 1,189 | ± 4.1% | align=center | 52% | 39% | 3% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey[47] | Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 | 2,004 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 58% | 39% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey[48] | Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 | 1,728 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 57% | 40% | — | 3% |
Quinnipiac University[49] | Oct 27–Nov 1, 2016 | 589 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 56% | 38% | — | 6% |
SurveyMonkey[50] | Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 | 1,586 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 57% | 39% | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey[51] | October 25–31, 2016 | 1,823 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 55% | 40% | — | 5% |
Emerson College[52] | October 26–27, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 49% | 35% | 4% | 12% |
Suffolk University[53] | October 17–19, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 46% | 31% | 6% | 14% |
Quinnipiac University[54] | October 10–16, 2016 | 624 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 54% | 41% | 1% | 4% |
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[55] | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,307 | ± 0.5% | align=center | 56% | 39% | — | 5% |
CNN/ORC[56] | align=center rowspan=2 | October 10–15, 2016 | 774 LV | align=center rowspan=2 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 56% | 40% | — | 2% |
890 RV | align=center | 55% | 40% | — | 2% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist[57] | align=center rowspan=2 | October 10–12, 2016 | 724 LV | ± 3.6% | align=center | 55% | 37% | 3% | 5% |
1,007 RV | ± 3.1% | align=center | 54% | 36% | 3% | 6% |
Emerson College[58] | October 10–12, 2016 | 600 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 47% | 30% | 6% | 16% |
Baldwin Wallace University[59] | October 9–11, 2016 | 1,152 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[60] | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,304 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 51% | 37% | — | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov[61] | October 5–7, 2016 | 997 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 49% | 38% | 2% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling[62] | October 5–6, 2016 | 782 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 51% | 36% | — | 12% |
Monmouth University[63] | October 1–4, 2016 | 405 | ± 4.9% | align=center | 54% | 39% | 2% | 5% |
Quinnipiac University[64] | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 497 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 55% | 38% | — | 7% |
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[65] | Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 | 800 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 51% | 39% | 5% | 5% |
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[66] | September 22–23, 2016 | 850 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 44% | 36% | — | 20% |
TargetSmart/William & Mary[67] | align=center rowspan=2 | September 15–22, 2016 | 652 LV | align=center rowspan=2 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 47% | 32% | 4% | 17% |
821 RV | align=center | 44% | 34% | 4% | 18% |
FOX News[68] | align=center rowspan=2 | September 18–20, 2016 | 737 LV | align=center rowspan=2 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 51% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
806 RV | align=center | 50% | 37% | 1% | 10% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[69] | September 10–19, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 51% | 34% | 4% | 11% |
Suffolk University[70] | September 12–14, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 39% | 31% | 5% | 23% |
CNN/ORC[71] | align=center rowspan=2 | September 7–12, 2016 | 769 LV | align=center rowspan=2 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 58% | 37% | — | 5% |
895 RV | align=center | 56% | 38% | — | 5% |
Bloomberg/Selzer[72] | September 9–12, 2016 | 802 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 53% | 36% | 3% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University[73] | Aug 29–Sept 7, 2016 | 775 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[74] | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,134 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 48% | 39% | — | 13% |
Emerson College[75] | August 25–27, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 40% | 25% | 10% | 25% |
Monmouth University[76] | August 18–21, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | align=center | 48% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
CBS News/YouGov[77] | August 17–19, 2016 | 997 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 46% | 39% | 4% | 11% |
Quinnipiac University[78] | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 812 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 49% | 40% | 1% | 10% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist[79] | August 3–7, 2016 | 889 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 48% | 43% | 1% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[80] | July 22–24, 2016 | 1,334 | ± 2.7% | align=center | 43% | 38% | — | 19% |
Suffolk University[81] | July 18–20, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 37% | 33% | 6% | 23% |
CBS News/YouGov[82] | July 13–15, 2016 | 1,104 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 41% | 40% | 4% | 14% |
Quinnipiac University[83] | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 955 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 47% | 40% | 1% | 9% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist[84] | July 5–10, 2016 | 848 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | 2% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling[85] | June 22–23, 2016 | 708 | ± 3.7% | align=center | 40% | 39% | — | 21% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[86] | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 40% | align=center | 43% | — | 17% |
Quinnipiac University[87] | June 8–19, 2016 | 971 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 42% | 1% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling[88] | June 8–9, 2016 | 781 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 46% | 42% | — | 12% |
Quinnipiac University[89] | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,042 | ± 3.0% | 42% | align=center | 43% | 1% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling[90] | April 26–27, 2016 | 799 | ± 3.2% | 38% | 38% | 1% | 23% |
Hart Research Associates[91] | April 5–7, 2016 | 500 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 47% | 45% | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | March 4–6, 2016 | 1,248 | ± 2.8% | 40% | align=center | 41% | — | 19% |
Quinnipiac University[92] | February 16–20, 2016 | 1,539 | ± 2.5% | 42% | align=center | 44% | — | 14% |
Baldwin Wallace University[93] | February 11–20, 2016 | 825 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
Democracy Corps[94] | October 24–28, 2015 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
Quinnipiac University[95] | Sept 25–Oct 5, 2015 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | 43% | align=center | 46% | 1% | 8% |
Harstad Strategic Research[96] | September 10–16, 2015 | 813 | ± 3.4% | 43% | align=center | 46% | — | 11% |
Quinnipiac University[97] | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,096 | ± 3.0% | 41% | align=center | 44% | 1% | 10% |
Quinnipiac University[98] | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,191 | ± 2.8% | 40% | align=center | 46% | 1% | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 43% | 41% | — | 15% |
Quinnipiac University[99] | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | 39% | align=center | 48% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[100] | March 2–3, 2015 | 946 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 45% | — | 10% | |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | class=small | Sample size | class=small | Margin of error | Rob Portman (R) | P.G. Sittenfeld (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|
Public Policy Polling | March 4–6, 2016 | 1,248 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 42% | 30% | — | 27% |
Quinnipiac University[101] | February 16–20, 2016 | 1,539 | ± 2.5% | align=center | 48% | 29% | 1% | 22% |
Baldwin Wallace University | February 11–20, 2016 | 825 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 51% | 26% | — | 23% |
Quinnipiac University[102] | September 25 – October 5, 2015 | 1,180 | ± 2.9% | align=center | 49% | 27% | 1% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University[103] | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,096 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 46% | 25% | 1% | 22% |
Quinnipiac University[104] | June 4–15, 2015 | 1,191 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 49% | 24% | 1% | 25% |
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | align=center | 46% | 28% | — | 26% |
Quinnipiac University | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 47% | 24% | 1% | 28% |
Public Policy Polling[105] ↑ | March 2–3, 2015 | 946 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 50% | 31% | — | 15% | |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | class=small | Sample size | class=small | Margin of error | Ken Blackwell (R) | Ted Strickland (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|
Public Policy Polling | June 4–7, 2015 | 859 | ± 3.3% | 36% | align=center | 46% | — | 18% | |
Results
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including the 13th, held by Democrat Tim Ryan and which Hillary Clinton also won in the presidential race.[106]
Analysis
Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run.[107] [108] Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in Congress.
External links
Official campaign websites (Archived)
Notes and References
- News: 2016 Ohio Elections Calendar . February 20, 2016 . Ohio Secretary of State . https://web.archive.org/web/20160302121305/http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/upload/publications/election/2016ElectionCalendarletter.pdf . March 2, 2016 . dead . mdy-all .
- Web site: Rob Portman won't run for president in 2016 . . December 2, 2014 . December 2, 2014 . Maggie Haberman.
- News: Livingston . Abby . Whither Ohio as the Ultimate House Battleground? . January 9, 2014 . Roll Call . January 9, 2014.
- Bernstein, Jonathan (August 26, 2014) "Everybody's Running (Rob Portman Edition)", Bloomberg View. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
- Torry, Jack (August 26, 2014) "2016 preview?: Ohio Sen. Portman visits New Hampshire", Dayton Daily News. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
- Conroy, Scott (August 26, 2014) "Portman Won't Run for Two Offices Simultaneously in 2016", RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
- Web site: Rob Portman has decided not to run for president . Cleveland.com . December 2, 2014 . December 11, 2014 . Stephen Koff.
- Web site: Gay Marriage Foes Yet to Prove Formidable Threat to Rob Portman . NBC News . November 17, 2014 . November 18, 2014.
- News: GOP's Ohio seat a '16 prize . The Hill . January 20, 2015 . January 21, 2015.
- Web site: Portman has conservative primary challenger . . Torry . Jack . May 19, 2015 . May 19, 2015.
- Web site: Martin O'Malley won't appear on Ohio's primary ballot . . Johnson . Alan . January 1, 2016 . January 11, 2016.
- News: Portman list of Ohio endorsements grows to 500 . The Hill . February 3, 2015 . February 4, 2015.
- http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_31016.pdf Public Policy Polling
- http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_60915.pdf Public Policy Polling
- News: Kasich joins GOP competitors in filing for Ohio primary . . Rowland . Darrel . Ludlow . Randy . December 16, 2015 . December 17, 2015.
- News: Who's next? A look at the depth of the Ohio Democratic Party bench after Ed FitzGerald . March 19, 2014 . cleveland.com . September 3, 2014 . Henry J. Gomez.
- News: Gomez . Henry J. . P.G. Sittenfeld, Cincinnati councilman and potential U.S. Senate candidate, gets some national attention . December 3, 2014 . cleveland.com . December 3, 2014.
- News: Sittenfeld: Yes, I'm running for U.S. Senate . . Coolidge . Sharon . January 22, 2015.
- News: Cheney. Kyle. Ted Strickland running against Rob Portman in Ohio. Politico. February 25, 2014.
- News: Vardon . Joe . Ohio legislator to challenge Portman in '16 . September 20, 2013 . The Columbus Dispatch . May 8, 2013.
- News: Who will face Portman in '16? . The Columbus Dispatch . January 2, 2015 . January 10, 2015.
- News: Levinson . Alexis . Congressman Considering Rob Portman Challenge in 2016 . December 3, 2014 . Roll Call . December 3, 2014 . December 8, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141208013015/http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2016-tim-ryan-considers-rob-portman/ . dead .
- News: Barrett . Leslie . Controversy over use of image of flag draped coffins in campaign ad . October 10, 2015 . WFMJ . September 17, 2015.
- News: Jennifer Brunner mends fences with Ted Strickland, signals support for his U.S. Senate bid . Northeast Ohio Media Group . Gomez . Henry J. . March 2, 2015 . March 12, 2015.
- News: Sullivan . Lucas . Caruso . Doug . Mayor Coleman announces he won't run next year . December 3, 2014 . . November 26, 2014.
- News: Turnout tanks to World War II levels, Zack Reed meets Rand Paul: Ohio Politics Roundup . Northeast Ohio Media Group . Gomez . Henry J. . March 12, 2015 . March 12, 2015.
- News: Proud to endorse @ted_strickland for US Senate. He's a proven leader dedicated to improving education & the economy in OH . Twitter . Pillich . Connie . March 13, 2015 . March 13, 2015.
- News: Levinson . Alexis . Rep. Tim Ryan declines to run for U.S. Senate against Rob Portman . February 13, 2015 . . February 13, 2015.
- News: Nina Turner vows to stay involved in politics after election loss: 'I'm not going anywhere' . cleveland.com . November 15, 2014 . November 17, 2014 . Henry J. . Gomez.
- News: Dayton mayor: Portman is "formidable" but still beatable . . Pitman . Michael D. . February 27, 2015 . March 1, 2015 . March 6, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150306063503/http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/dayton-mayor-portman-is-formidable-but-still-beata/nkLC2/ . dead .
- https://web.archive.org/web/20160203040139/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/DemToplines.pdf Public Policy Polling
- News: Green Party candidate in Ohio pursuing 2016 Senate bid. WFMJ. June 9, 2015.
- News: Truck driver plans independent run for U.S. Senate . . Ludlow . Randy . March 10, 2016 . March 20, 2016.
- https://www.c-span.org/video/?416678-1/ohio-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
- https://www.c-span.org/video/?417077-1/ohio-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
- https://www.c-span.org/video/?416379-1/ohio-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
- Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
- Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
- Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
- Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
- Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
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- https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r2.771xfmKOI/v0 Bloomberg/Selzer
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