2016 United States Senate election in Ohio explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:2016 United States Senate election in Ohio
Country:Ohio
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Ohio
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2022 United States Senate election in Ohio
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:File:Rob Portman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg
Nominee1:Rob Portman
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:3,118,567
Percentage1:58.03%
Nominee2:Ted Strickland
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,996,908
Percentage2:37.16%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Rob Portman
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Rob Portman
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman faced former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.

Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a potential Democratic pickup, with some early polls showing Strickland ahead, but Portman attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign, and ultimately won re-election to a second term in a landslide, winning 58% of the vote. His vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record set in his 2004 re-election.

Republican primary

Republican Senator Rob Portman ran for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3] [4] [5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3] [6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2] [7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, said that they were unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8] [9]

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelli
Prather
P.G.
Sittenfeld
Ted
Strickland
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 4–6, 2016508± 4.4%6%16% align=center50%28%
Public Policy Polling[31] January 12–14, 20161,138± ?10%10% align=center61%18%
Public Policy PollingJune 4–7, 2015360± 5.2%13% align=center65%22%

Results

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

DatesLocationPortmanStricklandLink
October 14, 2016Youngstown, OhioParticipantParticipantalign=left [34]
October 17, 2016Columbus, OhioParticipantParticipantalign=left [35]
October 20, 2016Cleveland, OhioParticipantParticipantalign=left [36]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[37] November 2, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[38] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[39] November 3, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[40] November 8, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[41] November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey[42] November 1–7, 20162,860± 4.6% align=center57%39%4%
SurveyMonkey[43] Oct 31–Nov 6, 20162,530± 4.6% align=center57%39%4%
Emerson College[44] November 4–5, 2016900± 3.2% align=center49%28%11%12%
The Columbus Dispatch[45] Oct 27–Nov 5, 20161,151± 2.9% align=center58%37%5%
CBS News/YouGov[46] November 2–4, 20161,189± 4.1% align=center52%39%3%6%
SurveyMonkey[47] Oct 28–Nov 3, 20162,004± 4.6% align=center58%39%3%
SurveyMonkey[48] Oct 27–Nov 2, 20161,728± 4.6% align=center57%40%3%
Quinnipiac University[49] Oct 27–Nov 1, 2016589± 4.0% align=center56%38%6%
SurveyMonkey[50] Oct 26–Nov 1, 20161,586± 4.6% align=center57%39%4%
SurveyMonkey[51] October 25–31, 20161,823± 4.6% align=center55%40%5%
Emerson College[52] October 26–27, 2016800± 3.4% align=center49%35%4%12%
Suffolk University[53] October 17–19, 2016500± 4.4% align=center46%31%6%14%
Quinnipiac University[54] October 10–16, 2016624± 3.9% align=center54%41%1%4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[55] October 8–16, 20161,307± 0.5% align=center56%39%5%
CNN/ORC[56] align=center rowspan=2October 10–15, 2016774 LValign=center rowspan=2± 3.5% align=center56%40%2%
890 RV align=center55%40%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[57] align=center rowspan=2October 10–12, 2016724 LV± 3.6% align=center55%37%3%5%
1,007 RV± 3.1% align=center54%36%3%6%
Emerson College[58] October 10–12, 2016600± 3.9% align=center47%30%6%16%
Baldwin Wallace University[59] October 9–11, 20161,152± 3.0% align=center48%36%16%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[60] October 7–10, 20161,304± 3.0% align=center51%37%12%
CBS News/YouGov[61] October 5–7, 2016997± 3.9% align=center49%38%2%10%
Public Policy Polling[62] October 5–6, 2016782± 3.5% align=center51%36%12%
Monmouth University[63] October 1–4, 2016405± 4.9% align=center54%39%2%5%
Quinnipiac University[64] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016497± 4.4% align=center55%38%7%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[65] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016800± 4.0% align=center51%39%5%5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[66] September 22–23, 2016850± 3.4% align=center44%36%20%
TargetSmart/William & Mary[67] align=center rowspan=2September 15–22, 2016652 LValign=center rowspan=2± 3.4% align=center47%32%4%17%
821 RV align=center44%34%4%18%
FOX News[68] align=center rowspan=2September 18–20, 2016737 LValign=center rowspan=2± 3.5% align=center51%37%1%10%
806 RV align=center50%37%1%10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[69] September 10–19, 2016400± 4.0% align=center51%34%4%11%
Suffolk University[70] September 12–14, 2016500± 4.4% align=center39%31%5%23%
CNN/ORC[71] align=center rowspan=2September 7–12, 2016769 LValign=center rowspan=2± 3.0% align=center58%37%5%
895 RV align=center56%38%5%
Bloomberg/Selzer[72] September 9–12, 2016802± 3.5% align=center53%36%3%7%
Quinnipiac University[73] Aug 29–Sept 7, 2016775± 3.5% align=center51%40%1%8%
Public Policy Polling[74] August 26–27, 20161,134± 3.0% align=center48%39%13%
Emerson College[75] August 25–27, 2016800± 3.4% align=center40%25%10%25%
Monmouth University[76] August 18–21, 2016402± 4.9% align=center48%40%4%8%
CBS News/YouGov[77] August 17–19, 2016997± 3.9% align=center46%39%4%11%
Quinnipiac University[78] July 30–August 7, 2016812± 3.4% align=center49%40%1%10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[79] August 3–7, 2016889± 3.3% align=center48%43%1%8%
Public Policy Polling[80] July 22–24, 20161,334± 2.7% align=center43%38%19%
Suffolk University[81] July 18–20, 2016500± 4.4% align=center37%33%6%23%
CBS News/YouGov[82] July 13–15, 20161,104± 3.5% align=center41%40%4%14%
Quinnipiac University[83] June 30–July 11, 2016955± 3.2% align=center47%40%1%9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[84] July 5–10, 2016848± 3.4%44%44%2%10%
Public Policy Polling[85] June 22–23, 2016708± 3.7% align=center40%39%21%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[86] June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%40% align=center43%17%
Quinnipiac University[87] June 8–19, 2016971± 3.1%42%42%1%11%
Public Policy Polling[88] June 8–9, 2016781± 3.4% align=center46%42%12%
Quinnipiac University[89] April 27–May 8, 20161,042± 3.0%42% align=center43%1%14%
Public Policy Polling[90] April 26–27, 2016799± 3.2%38%38%1%23%
Hart Research Associates[91] April 5–7, 2016500± 3.2% align=center47%45%8%
Public Policy PollingMarch 4–6, 20161,248± 2.8%40% align=center41%19%
Quinnipiac University[92] February 16–20, 20161,539± 2.5%42% align=center44%14%
Baldwin Wallace University[93] February 11–20, 2016825± 3.4% align=center44%40%16%
Democracy Corps[94] October 24–28, 2015400± 4.9%47%47%6%
Quinnipiac University[95] Sept 25–Oct 5, 20151,180± 2.9%43% align=center46%1%8%
Harstad Strategic Research[96] September 10–16, 2015813± 3.4%43% align=center46%11%
Quinnipiac University[97] August 7–18, 20151,096± 3.0%41% align=center44%1%10%
Quinnipiac University[98] June 4–15, 20151,191± 2.8%40% align=center46%1%13%
Public Policy PollingJune 4–7, 2015859± 3.3% align=center43%41%15%
Quinnipiac University[99] March 17–28, 20151,077± 3.0%39% align=center48%13%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[100] March 2–3, 2015946± 3.2%45%45%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Rob
Portman (R)
P.G.
Sittenfeld (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 4–6, 20161,248± 2.8% align=center42%30%27%
Quinnipiac University[101] February 16–20, 20161,539± 2.5% align=center48%29%1%22%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityFebruary 11–20, 2016825± 3.4% align=center51%26%23%
Quinnipiac University[102] September 25 – October 5, 20151,180± 2.9% align=center49%27%1%18%
Quinnipiac University[103] August 7–18, 20151,096± 3.0% align=center46%25%1%22%
Quinnipiac University[104] June 4–15, 20151,191± 2.8% align=center49%24%1%25%
Public Policy PollingJune 4–7, 2015859± 3.3% align=center46%28%26%
Quinnipiac UniversityMarch 17–28, 20151,077± 3.0% align=center47%24%1%28%
Public Policy Polling[105]March 2–3, 2015946± 3.2% align=center50%31%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Ken
Blackwell (R)
Ted
Strickland (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 4–7, 2015859± 3.3%36% align=center46%18%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including the 13th, held by Democrat Tim Ryan and which Hillary Clinton also won in the presidential race.[106]

DistrictPortmanStricklandRepresentative
60%36%Steve Chabot
65%31%Brad Wenstrup
36%59%Joyce Beatty
69%26%Jim Jordan
66%30%Bob Latta
66%29%Bill Johnson
66%29%Bob Gibbs
72%24%Warren Davidson
43%51%Marcy Kaptur
60%36%Mike Turner
22%73%Marcia Fudge
62%34%Pat Tiberi
48%46%Tim Ryan
61%34%David Joyce
61%34%Steve Stivers
62%32%Jim Renacci

Analysis

Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run.[107] [108] Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in Congress.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: 2016 Ohio Elections Calendar . February 20, 2016 . Ohio Secretary of State . https://web.archive.org/web/20160302121305/http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/upload/publications/election/2016ElectionCalendarletter.pdf . March 2, 2016 . dead . mdy-all .
  2. Web site: Rob Portman won't run for president in 2016 . . December 2, 2014 . December 2, 2014 . Maggie Haberman.
  3. News: Livingston . Abby . Whither Ohio as the Ultimate House Battleground? . January 9, 2014 . Roll Call . January 9, 2014.
  4. Bernstein, Jonathan (August 26, 2014) "Everybody's Running (Rob Portman Edition)", Bloomberg View. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
  5. Torry, Jack (August 26, 2014) "2016 preview?: Ohio Sen. Portman visits New Hampshire", Dayton Daily News. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
  6. Conroy, Scott (August 26, 2014) "Portman Won't Run for Two Offices Simultaneously in 2016", RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
  7. Web site: Rob Portman has decided not to run for president . Cleveland.com . December 2, 2014 . December 11, 2014 . Stephen Koff.
  8. Web site: Gay Marriage Foes Yet to Prove Formidable Threat to Rob Portman . NBC News . November 17, 2014 . November 18, 2014.
  9. News: GOP's Ohio seat a '16 prize . The Hill . January 20, 2015 . January 21, 2015.
  10. Web site: Portman has conservative primary challenger . . Torry . Jack . May 19, 2015 . May 19, 2015.
  11. Web site: Martin O'Malley won't appear on Ohio's primary ballot . . Johnson . Alan . January 1, 2016 . January 11, 2016.
  12. News: Portman list of Ohio endorsements grows to 500 . The Hill . February 3, 2015 . February 4, 2015.
  13. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_31016.pdf Public Policy Polling
  14. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_60915.pdf Public Policy Polling
  15. News: Kasich joins GOP competitors in filing for Ohio primary . . Rowland . Darrel . Ludlow . Randy . December 16, 2015 . December 17, 2015.
  16. News: Who's next? A look at the depth of the Ohio Democratic Party bench after Ed FitzGerald . March 19, 2014 . cleveland.com . September 3, 2014 . Henry J. Gomez.
  17. News: Gomez . Henry J. . P.G. Sittenfeld, Cincinnati councilman and potential U.S. Senate candidate, gets some national attention . December 3, 2014 . cleveland.com . December 3, 2014.
  18. News: Sittenfeld: Yes, I'm running for U.S. Senate . . Coolidge . Sharon . January 22, 2015.
  19. News: Cheney. Kyle. Ted Strickland running against Rob Portman in Ohio. Politico. February 25, 2014.
  20. News: Vardon . Joe . Ohio legislator to challenge Portman in '16 . September 20, 2013 . The Columbus Dispatch . May 8, 2013.
  21. News: Who will face Portman in '16? . The Columbus Dispatch . January 2, 2015 . January 10, 2015.
  22. News: Levinson . Alexis . Congressman Considering Rob Portman Challenge in 2016 . December 3, 2014 . Roll Call . December 3, 2014 . December 8, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141208013015/http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2016-tim-ryan-considers-rob-portman/ . dead .
  23. News: Barrett . Leslie . Controversy over use of image of flag draped coffins in campaign ad . October 10, 2015 . WFMJ . September 17, 2015.
  24. News: Jennifer Brunner mends fences with Ted Strickland, signals support for his U.S. Senate bid . Northeast Ohio Media Group . Gomez . Henry J. . March 2, 2015 . March 12, 2015.
  25. News: Sullivan . Lucas . Caruso . Doug . Mayor Coleman announces he won't run next year . December 3, 2014 . . November 26, 2014.
  26. News: Turnout tanks to World War II levels, Zack Reed meets Rand Paul: Ohio Politics Roundup . Northeast Ohio Media Group . Gomez . Henry J. . March 12, 2015 . March 12, 2015.
  27. News: Proud to endorse @ted_strickland for US Senate. He's a proven leader dedicated to improving education & the economy in OH . Twitter . Pillich . Connie . March 13, 2015 . March 13, 2015.
  28. News: Levinson . Alexis . Rep. Tim Ryan declines to run for U.S. Senate against Rob Portman . February 13, 2015 . . February 13, 2015.
  29. News: Nina Turner vows to stay involved in politics after election loss: 'I'm not going anywhere' . cleveland.com . November 15, 2014 . November 17, 2014 . Henry J. . Gomez.
  30. News: Dayton mayor: Portman is "formidable" but still beatable . . Pitman . Michael D. . February 27, 2015 . March 1, 2015 . March 6, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150306063503/http://www.daytondailynews.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/dayton-mayor-portman-is-formidable-but-still-beata/nkLC2/ . dead .
  31. https://web.archive.org/web/20160203040139/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/01/DemToplines.pdf Public Policy Polling
  32. News: Green Party candidate in Ohio pursuing 2016 Senate bid. WFMJ. June 9, 2015.
  33. News: Truck driver plans independent run for U.S. Senate . . Ludlow . Randy . March 10, 2016 . March 20, 2016.
  34. https://www.c-span.org/video/?416678-1/ohio-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
  35. https://www.c-span.org/video/?417077-1/ohio-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
  36. https://www.c-span.org/video/?416379-1/ohio-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
  37. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
  38. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
  39. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
  40. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
  41. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
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