2016 United States Senate election in Iowa explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:	2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
Country:	Iowa
Flag Image:	Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2010 United States Senate election in Iowa
Previous Year:	2010
Next Election:	2022 United States Senate election in Iowa
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Image1:	File:Chuck Grassley official photo 2017.jpg
Nominee1:	Chuck Grassley
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	926,007
Percentage1:	60.09%
Nominee2:	Patty Judge
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	549,460
Percentage2:	35.66%
Map Size:	220px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Chuck Grassley
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Chuck Grassley
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,^[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.^[2]

Background

Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,^[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."^[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Chuck Grassley, incumbent senator^{[4] [5]}

Withdrawn

• Robert Rees, talk radio host^{[6] [7] [8]}

Declined

• Pat Grassley, state representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley^[9]
• Steve King, U.S. Representative^[10]
• Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative^[10]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Tom Fiegen, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[5]
• Rob Hogg, state senator^[11]
• Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture^{[12] [13] [14]}
• Bob Krause, former state representative, nominee for state treasurer in 1978, candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[15]

Withdrawn

• Ray Zirkelbach, former state representative^{[16] [17]}

Declined

• Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012^[9]
• Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa^[10]
• Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa^{[9] [18]}
• Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee^{[9] [19]}
• Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^{[10] [20]}
• Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006^[5]
• Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and candidate for governor in 2014^{[21] [22]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin	Patty Judge	Rob Hogg	Bob Krause	Tom Fiegen	None/Other	Undecided
align=left	Des Moines Register^[23]	May 30 – June 2, 2016	542	± 4.2%		42%	25%	6%	5%	6%	15%
align=left	KBUR-AM 1490^[24]	May 31 – June 1, 2016	1,361	± 3.0%		37%	31%	3%	6%	–	23%

Results

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[25]		November 2, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[26]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[27]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos^[28]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[29]		November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Patty Judge (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[31]	November 1–7, 2016	1,781	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	39%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[32]	Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016	1,598	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	39%	—	5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer^[33]	November 1–4, 2016	800	± 3.5%	align=center	56%	33%	2%	4%
Emerson College^[34]	November 1–3, 2016	700	± 3.6%	align=center	60%	32%	4%	5%
Loras College^[35]	November 1–3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	align=center	53%	37%	1%	8%
SurveyMonkey^[36]	Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016	1,469	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	39%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[37]	Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016	1,226	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	40%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[38]	Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016	867	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	41%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[39]	October 25–31, 2016	984	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	41%	—	3%
Quinnipiac University^[40]	October 20–26, 2016	791	± 3.5%	align=center	56%	38%	—	5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey^[41]	October 8–16, 2016	1,135	± 0.5%	align=center	56%	40%	—	5%
Google Consumer Surveys^[42]	October 12–14, 2016	523	± 4.2%	align=center	56%	41%	—	3%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid^[43]	October 7–10, 2016	917	± 3.0%	align=center	51%	39%	—	11%
Des Moines Register/Selzer^[44]	October 3–6, 2016	642	± 3.5%	align=center	53%	36%	2%	6%
Loras College^[45]	September 20–22, 2016	491	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	37%	—	9%
Quinnipiac University^[46]	September 13–21, 2016	612	± 4.0%	align=center	55%	43%	—	2%
Monmouth University^[47]	September 12–14, 2016	404	± 4.9%	align=center	56%	39%	2%	3%
RABA Research^[48]	September 6–8, 2016	1,054	± 3.0%	align=center	50%	37%	—	13%
Emerson College^[49]	Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016	600	± 3.9%	align=center	51%	40%	3%	6%
Public Policy Polling^[50]	August 30–31, 2016	827	± 3.4%	align=center	49%	43%	—	8%
CBS News/YouGov^[51]	August 17–19, 2016	987	± 4.0%	align=center	45%	38%	1%	15%
Quinnipiac University^[52]	August 9–16, 2016	846	± 3.4%	align=center	51%	42%	—	6%
Suffolk University^[53]	August 8–10, 2016	500	± 4.4%	align=center	52%	42%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist^[54]	August 3–7, 2016	899	± 3.3%	align=center	52%	42%	1%	5%
CBS News/YouGov^[55]	July 13–15, 2016	998	± 4.8%	align=center	45%	37%	2%	16%
Monmouth University^[56]	July 8–11, 2016	401	± 4.9%	align=center	52%	42%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist^[57]	July 5–10, 2016	822	± 3.4%	align=center	52%	42%	1%	5%
Loras College^[58]	June 24–28, 2016	600	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	45%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[59]	June 22–23, 2016	897	± 3.3%	align=center	46%	39%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[60]	June 9–13, 2016	630	± 3.9%	align=center	48%	41%	—	11%

with Rob Hogg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	class=small	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Rob Hogg (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[61]	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	align=center	52%	28%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	align=center	54%	29%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	align=center	53%	29%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	align=center	52%	28%	20%

with Tom Fiegen

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	class=small	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Tom Fiegen (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	align=center	53%	29%	18%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	align=center	54%	29%	16%
Public Policy Polling	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	align=center	54%	30%	16%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	align=center	53%	30%	17%

with Bob Krause

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	class=small	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Bob Krause (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	align=center	52%	28%	20%
Public Policy Polling	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	align=center	53%	28%	19%
Public Policy Polling	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	align=center	52%	28%	21%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	align=center	51%	29%	20%

with Tom Vilsack

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	class=small	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Tom Vilsack (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[65]	September 25–28, 2014	1,192	± 2.8%	align=center	51%	42%	7%
Public Policy Polling^[66]	May 15–19, 2014	914	± 3.3%	align=center	49%	39%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	February 20–23, 2014	869	± 3.3%	align=center	48%	41%	11%

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[68]

District	Grassley	Judge	Representative
		58%	38%		Rod Blum
		56%	39%		Dave Loebsack
		58%	37%		David Young
		68%	28%		Steve King

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Chuck Grassley (R) for Senate
• Patty Judge (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
2. Web site: Miller . Stephen . Republican Chuck Grassley wins eighth term, defeats Mike Franken in Iowa US Senate race . Des Moines Register . 16 February 2023.
3. News: Matt Kelley . Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement . May 22, 2014 . Radio Iowa . January 29, 2013.
4. News: Livingston . Abby . Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016 . September 20, 2013 . Roll Call . September 20, 2013 . September 21, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130921060632/http://atr.rollcall.com/grassley-planning-to-run-again-in-2016/ . dead .
5. Web site: And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign . . Jacobs . Jennifer . Noble . Jason . March 31, 2015 . March 31, 2015.
6. Web site: Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley . Iowa Free Press . Porter . Jake . January 19, 2016 . February 14, 2016.
7. Web site: IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary . Bleeding Heartland . February 12, 2016 . February 14, 2016.
8. Web site: IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley . Bleeding Heartland . March 15, 2016 . March 17, 2016.
9. Web site: 16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate . December 29, 2014 . December 29, 2014 . . Cheney . Kyle.
10. News: Cahn . Emily . Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 Farm Team . August 14, 2013 . Roll Call . June 26, 2013.
11. Web site: Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate . . Petroski . William . September 21, 2015 . September 22, 2015.
12. Web site: Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it . . Noble . Jason . February 25, 2016 . February 25, 2016.
13. News: Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race . The New York Times . Jennifer . Steinhauer . March 3, 2016 . March 3, 2016.
14. Web site: It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley . . Noble . Jason . March 4, 2016 . March 4, 2016.
15. Web site: Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch . Des Moines Register . January 2, 2014 . January 3, 2014 . https://archive.today/20140103155511/http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2014/01/02/krause-ends-bid-for-governor-endorses-fellow-democrat-hatch . January 3, 2014 . dead . mdy-all .
16. Web site: Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race . . Lynch . James Q. . November 7, 2015 . February 14, 2016.
17. Web site: IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley . Bleeding Heartland . February 26, 2016 . February 26, 2016.
18. Web site: Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016 . Twitter . Noble . Jason . March 4, 2016 . March 4, 2016.
19. Web site: 61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid . . Petroski . William . January 26, 2016 . February 14, 2016.
20. Web site: Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy . Radio Iowa . Henderson . O. Kay . April 21, 2015 . July 23, 2015.
21. Web site: Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor . Iowa Starting Line . Rynard . Pat . May 28, 2015 . May 28, 2015.
22. Web site: Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary . Bleeding Heartland . March 7, 2016 . March 8, 2016.
23. https://www.scribd.com/doc/314819297/Iowa-Poll-Patty-Judge-leads-way-in-Democratic-Senate-primary Des Moines Register
24. http://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/judge-holds-slight-lead-over-hogg-in-dems-senate-poll/article_b5d9729f-6ca8-59b1-a6a9-24c1b059d16b.html KBUR-AM 1490
25. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
26. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
27. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
28. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
29. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
30. https://www.c-span.org/video/?417119-1/iowa-senate-debate Full debate - C-SPAN
31. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
32. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
33. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/chuck-grassley-patty-judge-iowa-poll/93293288/ Des Moines Register/Selzer
34. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf Emerson College
35. http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/ Loras College
36. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
37. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
38. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
39. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
40. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps10282016_Sbw72uv.pdf/ Quinnipiac University
41. http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/surveymonkey-15-state-poll/2103/ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey
42. https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-senate-polls-in-iowa-missouri-and-wisconsin-336c7224c30d#.iv3n77xn8 Google Consumer Surveys
43. https://web.archive.org/web/20161019040122/http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Iowa-Results.pdf The Times-Picayune/Lucid
44. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/10/10/iowa-poll-grassley-leads-judge-in-senate-race-by-17-points/91824228/ Des Moines Register/Selzer
45. https://web.archive.org/web/20160927123515/http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tied-iowa-grassley-opens-strong-lead-loras-college-poll-finds/ Loras College
46. https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps09232016_Sqh86by.pdf Quinnipiac University
47. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/ Monmouth University
48. http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Simpson-College-Survey-September-12-2016.pdf RABA Research
49. http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ce9f61436f9b420dbb5ef12240d1424a.pdf Emerson College
50. http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IAToplines1.pdf Public Policy Polling
51. https://ru.scribd.com/document/321810686/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa-August-21-2016#from_embed CBS News/YouGov
52. https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/ps08182016_Sjd43tz.pdf Quinnipiac University
53. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/8_11_2016_Marginals.pdf Suffolk University
54. https://www.scribd.com/document/320681982/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-August-2016-pdf NBC/WSJ/Marist
55. https://www.scribd.com/document/318501452/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-Iowa-July-2016#from_embed CBS News/YouGov
56. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/ Monmouth University
57. https://www.scribd.com/document/318216086/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-July-2016 NBC/WSJ/Marist
58. http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-leads-trump-grassley-judge-tight-race-loras-college-poll-finds/ Loras College
59. https://web.archive.org/web/20160705173351/http://www.americansunitedforchange.org/page/-/IowaResults616.pdf Public Policy Polling
60. http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2016/06/16/poll-shows-clinton-grassley-leading-iowa/85947420/ Public Policy Polling
61. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_11216.pdf Public Policy Polling
62. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_121715.pdf Public Policy Polling
63. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_110415.pdf Public Policy Polling
64. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_81115.pdf Public Policy Polling
65. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_9301982.pdf Public Policy Polling
66. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_Iowa%200521.pdf Public Policy Polling
67. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_IA_228.pdf Public Policy Polling
68. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting.