2016 United States Senate election in Indiana explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:2016 United States Senate election in Indiana
Country:Indiana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Indiana
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2022 United States Senate election in Indiana
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:File:Senator Todd Young official portrait.jpg
Nominee1:Todd Young
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,423,991
Percentage1:52.11%
Nominee2:Evan Bayh
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,158,974
Percentage2:42.41%
Nominee3:Lucy Brenton
Party3:Libertarian Party (United States)
Popular Vote3:149,481
Percentage3:5.47%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Dan Coats
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Todd Young
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana. The election was held alongside the presidential election and 2016 Indiana elections.

Republican incumbent Dan Coats, who served in the Senate since 2011 and previously from 1989 to 1999, ultimately chose to not seek reelection.[1] U.S. Representative Todd Young won the May 3 Republican primary to succeed him, with former U.S. Representative Baron Hill winning the Democratic nomination. However, Hill withdrew from the race on July 11, with former senator Evan Bayh entering the race to regain the seat, which he held from 1999 to 2011.

The Indiana Democratic Party formally chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Following his entry, Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner in the race. However, during the campaign, he faced heavy criticism over his post-Senate career as a lobbyist, as well as questions about his residency in the state. Young ultimately won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[2]

Background

Republican Senator Dan Coats, who had served in the Senate since 2011, and previously from 1989 to 1999, stated that he planned to run for re-election,[3] [4] but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats had "decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[5]

On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017–2023 term, should he complete it.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Young		Marlin
Stutzman		Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist[26] April 26–28, 2016645± 3.9% align=center56%24%20%
IPFW/Downs Center[27] April 13–27, 2016400± 4.9% align=center42%34%24%
WTHR/Howey[28] April 18–21, 2016507± 4.0% align=center43%31%26%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot. Hill soon released a statement formally dropping out of the race, saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[40] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[40] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state. Bayh officially declared for the race July 13. The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[40]

Candidates

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[45] November 2, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[47] November 3, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[48] November 8, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[49] November 7, 2016

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Young (R)		Evan
Bayh (D)		Lucy
Brenton (L)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[50] November 1–7, 20161,700± 4.6% align=center53%42%—5%
SurveyMonkey[51] Oct 31–Nov 6, 20161,383± 4.6% align=center52%43%—5%
WTHR/Howey[52] November 1–3, 2016600± 4.0% align=center46%41%6%7%
SurveyMonkey[53] Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016923± 4.6% align=center52%43%—5%
SurveyMonkey[54] Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016790± 4.6% align=center51%44%—5%
Gravis Marketing[55] Oct 30–Nov 1, 2016399± 4.9%37% align=center40%7%16%
SurveyMonkey[56] Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016638± 4.6% align=center51%46%—3%
SurveyMonkey[57] October 25–31, 2016674± 4.6% align=center50%46%—4%
Monmouth University[58] October 27–30, 2016402± 4.9%45%45%4%5%
Gravis Marketing[59] October 22–24, 2016596± 2.3%37% align=center39%7%17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey[60] October 10–16, 2016544± 3.9%43% align=center49%—6%
Monmouth University[61] October 11–13, 2016402± 4.9%42% align=center48%6%4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)[62] October 9–11, 2016609± 4.0% align=center40%39%8%13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[63] October 7–10, 20161,123± 3.0%43% align=center46%—11%
WTHR/Howey[64] October 3–5, 2016600± 4.0%41% align=center42%8%9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)October 3, 2016[65] ––38% align=center42%7%13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)September 21, 2016––39% align=center44%9%8%
WTHR/Howey[66] September 6–8, 2016600± 4.0%40% align=center44%5%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)September 1, 2016––35% align=center44%6%15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)[67] August 15–18, 2016801± 3.5%39% align=center55%—6%
Monmouth University[68] August 13–16, 2016403± 4.9%41% align=center48%4%7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)[69] August 10–14, 2016801± 3.5%36% align=center54%—10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)August 8, 2016––35% align=center48%7%10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)[70] August 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%32% align=center58%—9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)[71] July 12–14, 2016602± 4.1%33% align=center54%—13%

with Baron Hill

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		class=small Margin of
error		Todd
Young (R)		Baron
Hill (D)		Undecided
Bellwether Research[72] May 11–15, 2016600± 4.0% align=center36%22%30%
WTHR/HoweyApril 18–21, 2016500± 4.3% align=center48%30%22%

with Marlin Stutzman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Marlin
Stutzman (R)		Baron
Hill (D)		Undecided
WTHR/HoweyApril 18–21, 2016500± 4.0% align=center39%36%25%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Young won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[73]

DistrictYoungBayhRepresentative
38%58%Pete Visclosky
53%41%Jackie Walorski
59%35%Marlin Stutzman
59%35%Todd Rokita
53%42%Susan Brooks
61%34%Luke Messer
35%59%André Carson
53%42%Larry Bucshon
56%39%Todd Young

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate . . Joseph . Cameron . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015.
  2. Web site: Maureen Groppe . July 12, 2016 . Few former senators have done what Bayh might do . IndyStar.
  3. Web site: Bradner . Eric . December 8, 2012 . Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130921062618/http://www.courierpress.com/news/2012/dec/08/coats-preparing-for-re-election-in-2016/ . September 21, 2013 . September 21, 2013 . Courierpress.com.
  4. Web site: Francisco . Brian . November 2, 2011 . Coats gets head start on 2016 . September 21, 2013 . Journal Gazette.
  5. Web site: March 4, 2014 . Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate . October 12, 2014 . IndyStar.com.
  6. Web site: Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate . Roll Call . Emily . Cahn . May 9, 2015 . May 11, 2015 . May 13, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150513143127/http://atr.rollcall.com/marlin-stutzman-indiana-senate-bid/?dcz= . dead .
  7. Web site: Candidate fields growing quietly . Journal Gazette . Brian . Francisco . August 18, 2015 . August 18, 2015 .
  8. Web site: May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates . Indiana Secretary of State Election Division . February 4, 2016.
  9. Web site: Chief of staff launches Senate bid for Coats's seat . The Hill . Cameron . Joseph . March 26, 2015 . March 26, 2015.
  10. Web site: Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race . . February 8, 2016 . February 8, 2016.
  11. Web site: If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does? . KokomoPerspective.com . Brian Howey . January 30, 2015 . February 3, 2015 .
  12. Web site: Banks set for Congress run . . Francisco . Brian . May 11, 2015 . May 11, 2015.
  13. Web site: Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble . Howey Politics . Howey . Brian A. . Schoeff . Mark Jr. . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015.
  14. Web site: Brooks won't run for U.S. Senate . April 20, 2015 . April 20, 2015 . Ken . de la Bastide . The Herald Bulletin.
  15. Web site: Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested. . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015 . Sean . Sullivan . Twitter.
  16. Web site: Coats Not Running For Re-Election . Indy Politics . Hakim-Shabazz . Abdul . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150326144800/http://indypolitics.org/2015/03/24/coats-not-running-for-re-election/ . March 26, 2015 . dead .
  17. News: TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope' . . April 21, 2015.
  18. Web site: UPDATE: Delph opts out of U.S. Senate race . . Carden . Dan . September 15, 2015 . September 15, 2015.
  19. Web site: Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney . March 25, 2015 . March 25, 2015 . Manu . Raju . Twitter.
  20. Web site: A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up . . Howey . Brian . May 26, 2015 . June 4, 2015.
  21. Web site: Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race . The Statehouse File . Helms . Aubrey . August 4, 2015 . September 15, 2015.
  22. Web site: Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP . Eric Bradner . Dana Bash . MJ Lee . CNN . July 15, 2016.
  23. Web site: Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race . . Carden . Dan . June 10, 2015 . June 10, 2015.
  24. Web site: U.S. Rep. Walorski to seek third term in House, won't run for Senate after all . . Vandenack . Tim . April 15, 2015 . April 15, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150415193229/http://www.elkharttruth.com/hometown/elkhart/2015/04/15/U-S-Rep-Walorski-announce-plans-to-seek-re-election-to-House-won-t-run-for-Senate-after-all.html . April 15, 2015 . dead .
  25. Web site: Zoeller quiets talk of Senate run to replace Coats . . Marturello . Mike . April 9, 2015 . April 9, 2015.
  26. https://web.archive.org/web/20160508133335/http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf NBC/WSJ/Marist
  27. http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/indiana/Young--Cruz-favored-by-Hoosier-Republicans-in-IPFW-poll-12818419 IPFW/Downs Center
  28. http://www.howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/WTHR-Howey-Politics-INSen-Poll-Young-leads-Stutzman-43-31-/-3/346/13782 WTHR/Howey
  29. Web site: Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat . . Lewis . Olivia . August 15, 2015 . August 17, 2015.
  30. Web site: January 21, 2016 . January 21, 2016 . John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate . wfyi Indianapolis.
  31. Howey . Brian A. . Butler . Matthew . Gov. Pence prepares to pick a fight . Howey Politics Indiana . 25 June 2015 . 20 . 39 . 17 September 2019.
  32. Web site: Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All . . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015 . Cahn . Emily . Levinson . Alexis . March 28, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150328001707/http://atr.rollcall.com/indiana-senate-race-2016-coats-retirement/ . dead .
  33. News: Livingston . Abby . Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team . September 20, 2013 . Roll Call . June 19, 2013.
  34. Web site: John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate . Brandon . Smith . WFIU . May 25, 2016 . July 13, 2016 . August 7, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160807184438/http://indianapublicmedia.org/news/john-gregg-announce-running-mate-today-99364/ . dead .
  35. Web site: Mike Pence and Indiana's Deep Freeze . . March 8, 2015 . March 13, 2015 . Bruggeman . Karyn.
  36. News: Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse . Howey Politics . Howey . Brian A. . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015.
  37. Web site: U.S. Senate race: McDermott considers . Howey Politics . Howey . Brian . September 10, 2015 . September 15, 2015.
  38. News: GOP braces for free-for-all in Indiana . . Joseph . Cameron . March 24, 2015 . March 24, 2015.
  39. Web site: Glenda Ritz calls education 'catalyst for improvement' in run for governor . . Turner . Kris . June 4, 2015 . June 4, 2015.
  40. Web site: Baron Hill withdraws from U.S. Senate race; Evan Bayh to enter race . WTHR . July 11, 2016 . July 11, 2016 . July 12, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160712124345/http://www.wthr.com/story/32415830/baron-hill-withdraws-from-us-senate-race . dead .
  41. Web site: First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return . Tom LoBianco . CNN . July 11, 2016.
  42. Web site: Bayh announces Senate bid, puts Indiana seat in play . Tom LoBianco . CNN . July 13, 2016 . July 14, 2016.
  43. Web site: Bob Kern Senate filing . Indiana Secretary of State . July 12, 2016 . July 19, 2016 . August 20, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160820224658/http://in.gov/sos/files/SEN.Kern.DEM.pdf . dead .
  44. https://www.c-span.org/video/?417084-1/indiana-senate-debate Full debate
  45. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
  46. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
  47. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
  48. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
  49. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
  50. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
  51. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
  52. http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-young-pulls-ahead-of-bayh-in-senate-race WTHR/Howey
  53. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
  54. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
  55. https://www.scribd.com/document/330017282/Final-Indiana-Poll Gravis Marketing
  56. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
  57. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
  58. https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_103116/ Monmouth University
  59. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-indiana-polling-2/ Gravis Marketing
  60. http://wishtv.com/2016/10/18/wish-tvball-state-hoosier-survey-shows-bayh-leading-senate-race/ WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey
  61. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_101416/ Monmouth University
  62. https://web.archive.org/web/20161018224128/http://www.toddyoung.org/sites/default/files/%28IN%20Sen%29%20October%202016%20Polling%20Memo.pdf Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young)
  63. https://web.archive.org/web/20161022030935/http://luc.id/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Indiana-Results.pdf The Times-Picayune/Lucid
  64. http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-senate-battle-a-dead-heat WTHR/Howey
  65. Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
  66. http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race WTHR/Howey
  67. http://static.politico.com/ce/39/ca8c6532413a9a0c5dad0be9f5a0/bayhinternal.pdf Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh)
  68. http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/ Monmouth University
  69. http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/democratic-poll-bayh-still-big Global Strategy Group (D-SMP)
  70. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/aug/11/evan-bayh-boosts-democrat-hopes-for-retaking-senat/ Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg)
  71. http://www.dscc.org/press-release/new-poll-finds-evan-bayh-leading-congressman-todd-young-21-points-potential-grow-support/ Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC)
  72. http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/2016-election/poll-finds-pence-re-election-not-a-sure-bet/article_7841354c-023a-50e6-9e09-9a4bd9e567c8.html Bellwether Research
  73. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting.

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