2016 United States Senate election in Alaska explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:	2016 United States Senate election in Alaska
Country:	Alaska
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2010 United States Senate election in Alaska
Previous Year:	2010
Next Election:	2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Image1:	File:Lisa Murkowski official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Lisa Murkowski
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	138,149
Percentage1:	44.36%
Nominee2:	Joe Miller
Party2:	Libertarian Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	90,825
Percentage2:	29.16%
Image4:	File:Margaret Stock (cropped).jpg
Nominee4:	Margaret Stock
Party4:	Independent
Popular Vote4:	41,194
Percentage4:	13.23%
Image5:	File:Ray Metcalfe.jpg
Nominee5:	Ray Metcalfe
Party5:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote5:	36,200
Percentage5:	11.62%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Lisa Murkowski
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Lisa Murkowski
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office.^[1] The primaries were held on August 16.^[2] She was challenged by several candidates, including Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; Independent Margaret Stock, an attorney; and Libertarian Joe Miller, who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.

Murkowski was re-elected with 44.4% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities but not majorities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010.^[3] Miller's 29.2% finish was then the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election in terms of vote percentage. This record was surpassed four years later by Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who received 33.4% of the vote in the 2020 Arkansas Senate election, which had no Democratic candidate. This was also the first U.S. Senate election where four candidates received more than 10% of the vote since the 1942 Minnesota race, as well as being the first Senate race since then where the Democratic nominee finished fourth.

Background

After Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in 2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Tea Party challenger Joe Miller.^[4] She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams' 23.5%.^{[5] [6]} She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond in 1954.^[7]

Republican primary

As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it had been speculated that she would be challenged from the right again in 2016.^{[8] [9]}

Candidates

Declared

• Paul Kendall
• Thomas Lamb, candidate for the state house in 2006^{[10] [11]}
• Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for the state house in 1996^{[10] [12]}
• Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. Senator since 2002^[2]

Withdrew

• Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014^[13] (Not related to Alaska's other senator, also named Dan Sullivan)

Declined

• David Cuddy, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2008^[14]
• Mike J. Dunleavy, state senator^[15]
• Joe Miller, former magistrate judge, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[16] [17] [18]}
• Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008^{[19] [20]}
• Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska and candidate for Congress in 2008^[21]
• Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014^[22]

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Democratic candidates

Declared

• Edgar Blatchford, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former mayor of Seward and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development^[23]
• Ray Metcalfe, former Republican state representative and founder of the Republican Moderate Party of Alaska

Removed

• Richard Grayson, perennial candidate from New York^[10]

Declined

• Mark Begich, former U.S. Senator^{[24] [25] [26] [27]}

Libertarian candidates

Declared

• Cean Stevens, small business owner, nominee for the state house in 2014 and Republican nominee for the state house in 2012^{[10] [28]}

Subsequent events

Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominated Joe Miller as her replacement.^[29]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

• Breck Craig (independent)
• Ted Gianoutsos (independent), founder of the Veterans Party of Alaska and perennial candidate
• Margaret Stock (independent), attorney and retired Army Lt. Colonel^{[30] [31]}

Failed to qualify

• Sid Hill (independent)^[31]
• Bruce Walden (Veterans Party), retired army sergeant and Republican candidate for the state house in 2006^{[31] [32] [33]}
• Jed Whittaker (independent), commercial fisherman, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1992 and Green Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996^{[31] [34]}

Declined

• Mark Begich (write-in), former U.S. Senator^{[35] [36]}

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, November 4, 2016 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
	Lisa Murkowski (R)^[37]	$6,058,418	$7,055,457	$91,119
	Ray Metcalfe (D)^[38]	$20,865	$13,147	$7,718
	Margaret Stock (I)^[39]	$740,769	$738,918	$1,850
	Joe Miller (L)^[40]	$122	$445	$99,402

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[41]		November 2, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[42]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[43]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos^[44]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[45]		November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lisa Murkowski (R)	Joe Miller (L)	Ray Metcalfe (D)	Margaret Stock (I)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information^[46]	October 5–6, 2016	500	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	16%	9%	8%	1%	15%
Alaska Survey Research^[47]	September 28 – October 2, 2016	660	± 3.8%	align=center	50%	18%	12%	7%	2%	11%
Moore Information^[48]	September 13–15, 2016	500	±4.0%	align=center	48%	15%	15%	7%	1%	12%
Moore Information (R-Murkowski)^[49]	August 27–29, 2016	500	± 4.0%	align=center	56%	—	12%	5%	10%^[50]	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lisa Murkowski (R)	Ray Metcalfe (D)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[51]	November 1–7, 2016	409	± 4.6%	align=center	55%	33%	12%
SurveyMonkey^[52]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	382	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	32%	11%
SurveyMonkey^[53]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	303	± 4.6%	align=center	60%	25%	15%
SurveyMonkey^[54]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	334	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	30%	14%
SurveyMonkey^[55]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	268	± 4.6%	align=center	60%	22%	18%
SurveyMonkey^[56]	October 25–31, 2016	300	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	26%	22%

Results

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
• Juneau
• Sitka
• Skagway

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Libertarian

• Matanuska-Susitna Borough (largest census-designated place: Knik-Fairview)
• Kenai Peninsula Borough (largest city: Kenai)

External links

Official campaign websites

• Lisa Murkowski (R) for Senate
• Ray Metcalfe (D) for Senate
• Joe Miller (L) for Senate
• Margaret Stock (I) for Senate
• Breck Craig (I) for Senate
• Ted Gianoutsos (NA) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: Erica Martinson . Murkowski mines energy industry for major campaign funds . Alaska Dispatch News . March 8, 2016 . March 6, 2016 . Murkowski's main challenger, Stock, is running as an independent.
2. News: Lisa Murkowski announces that she's running in 2016 . AmandaCoyne.com . October 19, 2013 . October 25, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141025004939/http://amandacoyne.com/politics/lisa-murkowski-announces-that-shes-running-in-2016/ . October 25, 2014 . dead .
3. News: Murkowski Could Become 1st US Senator with Three Plurality Victories . Smart Politics . October 11, 2016 . November 12, 2016.
4. News: Sean Cockerham . It's another Tea Party win as Alaska's Murkowski concedes . August 31, 2010 . . September 1, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100901191632/http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/08/31/99960/alaska-absentee-count-looks-like.html . September 1, 2010 . dead .
5. News: Becky . Bohrer . Murkowski mounting write-in bid for Alaska Senate . September 18, 2010 . Associated Press . November 1, 2010.
6. Web site: McCormick . John . Murkowski Says She Will Run as Write-In Candidate in Senate Race in Alaska . Bloomberg . September 18, 2010 . October 23, 2010.
7. News: Murkowski triumphs in Alaska Senate race: Alaska's Murkowski appears to be first write-in candidate to win Senate since 1954 . The Seattle Times . November 17, 2010 . November 18, 2010.
8. News: Senate Democrats look to next elections . The Hill . March 27, 2014 . October 25, 2014.
9. News: Republicans Will Need to Sweep to Hold Onto Senate Majority in 2016 . National Journal . September 16, 2014 . October 25, 2014.
10. News: August 16, 2016 Primary Candidate List . State of Alaska Division of Elections . June 1, 2016 . June 29, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160629003709/http://www.elections.alaska.gov/election/2016/Primary/candidate_info_prm_2016.php . dead .
11. News: Will Pro-LGBT Stances Hurt GOP Senators? . . Garcia . Eric . January 27, 2016 . March 8, 2016 . March 12, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160312025925/http://atr.rollcall.com/will-pro-lgbt-stands-hurt-gop-senators/ . dead .
12. News: Friday in the Sun!!! (Feb 5) . The Midnight Sun . Reynolds . Casey . February 5, 2016 . March 8, 2016.
13. News: Ex-Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan drops out of Senate race . . Martinson . Erica . June 16, 2016 . June 17, 2016.
14. News: Friday in the Sun!!! (April 8) . The Midnight Sun . Reynolds . Casey . April 8, 2016 . April 11, 2016.
15. News: Sen. Dunleavey won't challenge Murkowski after all . . Manning . Phillip . January 5, 2016 . January 6, 2016.
16. News: 10 senators who could lose in 2016 . . Joseph . Cameron . December 28, 2014 . February 16, 2015.
17. News: Joe Miller Mulling Senate Bid, "Not Seriously" . . Quinn . Catie . January 6, 2016 . January 6, 2016.
18. News: New signs point to Joe Miller challenging Lisa Murkowski . The Midnight Sun . Reynolds . Casey . May 18, 2016 . May 24, 2016.
19. News: Friday in the Sun!!!! (Jan 1) . The Midnight Sun . Reynolds . Casey . January 1, 2016 . January 3, 2016.
20. News: Palin Hints at Possible Senate Bid . . Goddard . Taegan . January 3, 2016 . January 6, 2016.
21. News: With big campaign war chest, Murkowski forges toward 2016 . . Herz . Nathaniel . August 22, 2015 . October 7, 2015.
22. News: Murkowski Facing a Primary Puzzle . . Pathé . Simone . May 15, 2015 . May 15, 2015 . December 15, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151215093250/http://atr.rollcall.com/lisa-murkowski-primary-joe-miller-mike-dunleavy/ . dead .
23. News: Blatchford Jumps Into U.S. Senate Race As Democrat . The Midnight Sun . Reynolds . Casey . June 1, 2016 . June 1, 2016.
24. News: Losing Democrats Already Being Touted for 2016 Comebacks . National Journal . November 12, 2014 . November 19, 2014.
25. News: Senate Democratic campaign chairman: Majority or bust in 2016 . . Joseph . Cameron . February 5, 2015 . February 16, 2015.
26. News: Why Mark Begich could run for the Senate again . The Washington Post . Sullivan . Sean . February 2, 2015 . February 16, 2015.
27. News: Former Sen. Begich says he won't run for any office this year . . Bohrer . Becky . February 16, 2016 . February 16, 2016.
28. News: Friday in the Sun! (Feb 26) . The Midnight Sun . Reynolds . Casey . February 26, 2016 . March 8, 2016.
29. News: Joe Miller to challenge Murkowski as Libertarian Party nominee . KTUU . Baird . Austin . September 6, 2016 . September 6, 2016.
30. Web site: Anchorage attorney Margaret Stock challenging Lisa Murkowski for Senate . . Kelly . Devin . February 17, 2016 . February 17, 2016.
31. News: November 8, 2016 General Election Candidate List . State of Alaska Division of Elections . September 7, 2016 . October 21, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161021061643/http://www.elections.alaska.gov/election/2016/General/candidate_info_gen_2016.php . dead .
32. Web site: Veterans Party of America Nominates Bruce Walden for Alaskan State Senate . PR.com . September 12, 2015 . February 17, 2016.
33. Web site: Veterans Party Scores Election Win, Readies for 2016 . Independent Political Report . November 23, 2015 . February 17, 2016.
34. Web site: Letter: My candidacy is based on love, not contributions . . Whittaker . Jed . January 11, 2016 . February 17, 2016.
35. Web site: Mark Begich Doesn't Rule Out Alaska Write-In Campaign. Roll Call . September 13, 2016 . September 14, 2016 . Simone . Pathé .
36. Web site: Begich won't run for US Senate this fall in Alaska . Las Vegas Sun . September 22, 2016 . September 22, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160923112955/http://lasvegassun.com/news/2016/sep/22/begich-wont-run-for-us-senate-this-fall-in-alaska/ . September 23, 2016 . dead .
37. Web site: Murkowski, Lisa — Candidate for Senate . Federal Election Commission . August 16, 2016.
38. Web site: Alaska Senate Race . OpenSecrets.org . August 16, 2016.
39. Web site: Stock, Margaret — Candidate for Senate . Federal Election Commission . August 16, 2016.
40. Web site: Miller, Joe — Candidate for Senate . Federal Election Commission . September 6, 2016.
41. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
42. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
43. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
44. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
45. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
46. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161007_AK_1.pdf Moore Information
47. http://www.adn.com/politics/2016/10/11/polls-murkowski-holds-substantial-lead-in-u-s-senate-race/ Alaska Survey Research
48. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161007_AK_1.pdf Moore Information
49. http://midnightsunak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Memo-AK-Senator-Murkowski-Aug2016.pdf Moore Information (R-Murkowski)
50. Cean Stevens (L) 5%, Breck Craig (I) 1%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, None 3%
51. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
52. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
53. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
54. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
55. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
56. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey