2016 United States Senate election in Alabama explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:2016 United States Senate election in Alabama
Country:Alabama
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Alabama
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2022 United States Senate election in Alabama
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:File:Richard Shelby, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Richard Shelby
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,335,104
Percentage1:63.96%
Nominee2:Ron Crumpton
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:748,709
Percentage2:35.87%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Richard Shelby
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Richard Shelby
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee.[1] Shelby won re-election with 63.96% of the vote. Despite an overwhelming victory statewide, this marked Shelby's first and only race as either a Republican or Democrat in which he failed to carry Jefferson County, home of Birmingham, the state's largest city. In Jefferson, Crumpton took 51.99% (156,574 votes) to Shelby's 47.86% (144,136 votes);[2] this shift was due in part to increased Democratic support in core urban areas across the nation.

Background

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Republican primary

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that did not happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015.[1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor Jr., former governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange.[3] [4] [5] Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election.

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marcus
Bowman
John
Martin
Shadrack
McGill
Jonathan
McConnell
Richard
Shelby
Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)[11] January 29–30, 20161,299± 2.7%1%1%2%25% align=center55%16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)[12] January 25–26, 2016600± 4.0%1%1%1%9% align=center75%13%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)December 20151%2%3%15% align=center64%21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)November 20151%2%1%5% align=center71%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Shelby
Someone
Else
Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)January 29–30, 20161,299±2.7% align=center55%29%16%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)December 2015?±?% align=center64%15%21%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)October 2015?±?% align=center53%22%26%

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Declined

Primary results

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[18] November 2, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[20] November 3, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[21] November 8, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[22] November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Shelby (R)
Ron
Crumpton (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey[23] November 1–7, 20161,131± 4.6% align=center57%38%5%
SurveyMonkey[24] October 31 – November 6, 2016971± 4.6% align=center58%37%5%
SurveyMonkey[25] October 28 – November 3, 2016722± 4.6% align=center57%38%5%
SurveyMonkey[26] October 27 – November 2, 2016621± 4.6% align=center58%37%5%
SurveyMonkey[27] October 26 – November 1, 2016503± 4.6% align=center56%40%4%
SurveyMonkey[28] October 25–31, 2016485± 4.6% align=center60%36%4%
Google Consumer Surveys[29] October 18–20, 2016474± 4.2% align=center71%26%3%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Shelby won 6 of 7 congressional districts.[30]

DistrictShelbyCrumptonRepresentative
65%34%Bradley Byrne
66%34%Martha Roby
66%34%Mike Rogers
79%21%Robert Aderholt
67%33%Mo Brooks
73%27%Gary Palmer
31%69%Terri Sewell

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Could the Tea Party challenge Sen. Richard Shelby? Sure, but there are $17 million reasons not to. AL.com. June 30, 2014. July 1, 2014. Charles. Dean.
  2. Web site: June 5, 2020. Alabama Election Results. Alabama Secretary of State.
  3. News: Livingston. Abby. Farm Team: Long Line Forming for GOP Hopefuls Looking to Move Up in Alabama. June 19, 2014. Roll Call. February 6, 2013.
  4. Web site: 16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate. December 29, 2014. December 29, 2014. Politico. Cheney. Kyle.
  5. News: Who is next? Five people who could be governor after the 2018 election . Jim Stinson . AL.com . September 18, 2014 . September 19, 2014.
  6. Web site: Sen. Richard Shelby is in for 2016 and that changes Alabama's political landscape. AL.com. Gore. Leada. January 29, 2015. November 6, 2015.
  7. Web site: Here's what you need to know about the four Republicans challenging Richard Shelby. Yellowhammer News. Sims. Cliff. November 6, 2015. November 8, 2015.
  8. Web site: Alabama's Richard Shelby Gets a Primary Challenge. Roll Call. Pathé. Simone. November 6, 2015. November 6, 2015. November 9, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151109161617/http://atr.rollcall.com/alabamas-richard-shelby-gets-primary-challenge/. dead.
  9. Web site: Sen. Richard Shelby will face Republican challengers. Montgomery Advertiser. Troyan. Mary. November 7, 2015. November 6, 2015.
  10. Web site: Shadrack McGill among GOP challengers to Shelby. AL.com. Koplowitz. Howard. November 6, 2015. November 8, 2015.
  11. https://web.archive.org/web/20160301195900/http://www.mcconnell2016.com/new_survey_indicates_jonathan_mcconnell_shelby_likely_headed_to_a_runoff Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)
  12. https://www.scribd.com/doc/298032698/McLaughlin-Associates-Poll-on-AL-SEN McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)
  13. Web site: Crumpton Announces Bid to Unseat Shelby. Alabama Political Reporter. April 15, 2015. April 15, 2015. Brandon. Moseley. https://web.archive.org/web/20150415170839/http://alreporter.com/archives/archive-2014/march-2014/146-state/7580-crumpton-announces-bid-to-unseat-shelby.html. April 15, 2015. dead.
  14. Web site: Shelby Faces Three Challengers. Alabama Political Reporter. Brandon. Moseley. November 6, 2015. November 6, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151109015952/http://www.alreporter.com/archives/2015/146-state/8489-shelby-faces-three-challengers.html. November 9, 2015. dead.
  15. Web site: Huntsville man kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate. WAFF. November 3, 2015. November 6, 2015.
  16. News: Who are some Democrats who might run for governor in 2018. Charles J. Dean. AL.com . June 9, 2014 . November 13, 2014.
  17. Web site: Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate. March 21, 2016. March 21, 2016. Brandon. Moseley. Alabama Political Reporter.
  18. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
  19. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
  20. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
  21. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
  22. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
  23. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
  24. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
  25. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
  26. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
  27. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
  28. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
  29. https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-senate-polls-in-florida-georgia-and-alabama-28c8580117fb#.ithzyvnsi Google Consumer Surveys
  30. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting.