| Election Name: | 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary |
| Country: | South Carolina |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | South Carolina Republican primary, 2012 |
| Previous Year: | 2012 |
| Next Election: | 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary |
| Next Year: | 2024 |
| Outgoing Members: | NH |
| Elected Members: | NV |
| Candidate1: | Donald Trump |
| Color1: | 283681 |
| Home State1: | New York |
| Delegate Count1: | 50 |
| Popular Vote1: | 240,882 |
| Percentage1: | 32.51% |
| Candidate2: | Marco Rubio |
| Color2: | c60e3b |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Delegate Count2: | 0 |
| Popular Vote2: | 166,565 |
| Percentage2: | 22.48% |
| Candidate3: | Ted Cruz |
| Color3: | d4aa00 |
| Home State3: | Texas |
| Delegate Count3: | 0 |
| Popular Vote3: | 165,417 |
| Percentage3: | 22.33% |
| Candidate4: | Jeb Bush |
| Color4: | 8622ff |
| Home State4: | Florida |
| Delegate Count4: | 0 |
| Popular Vote4: | 58,056 |
| Percentage4: | 7.84% |
| Candidate5: | John Kasich |
| Color5: | 29ab87 |
| Home State5: | Ohio |
| Delegate Count5: | 0 |
| Popular Vote5: | 56,410 |
| Percentage5: | 7.61% |
| Candidate6: | Ben Carson |
| Color6: | 98d5e9 |
| Home State6: | Virginia |
| Delegate Count6: | 0 |
| Popular Vote6: | 53,551 |
| Percentage6: | 7.23% |
| Map Size: | 250px |
The 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Republican Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party held its Nevada caucuses on the same day, while their South Carolina primary would only take place a week later on February 27.
The states delegates are allocated in this way: 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary; 3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the seven congressional districts.[1]
Following a poor result in the primary, Jeb Bush announced the suspension of his campaign.[2]
January 9, 2016 – Columbia, South Carolina The Kemp Forum was held in the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center by the Jack Kemp Foundation. Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, and Rubio attended. The forum was moderated by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator Tim Scott.[3] [4]
January 14, 2016 – North Charleston, South Carolina
| Candidate | Airtime[5] | Polls | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17:12 | 34.5% | ||
| 17:52 | 19.3% | ||
| 14:19 | 11.8% | ||
| 8:26 | 9.0% | ||
| 14:25 | 3.5% | ||
| 12:36 | 4.8% | ||
| 12:26 | 2.3% |
| Candidate | Airtime | Polls | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12:06 | 2.8% | ||
| N/A | 2.3% | ||
| 13:00 | 1.8% | ||
| 12:18 | 0.0% |
On December 22, 2015, Fox Business Network announced that in order to qualify for the prime-time debate, candidates had to either: place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News; place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News; or place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News. In order to qualify for the first debate, candidates must have registered at least one percent in one of the five most recent national polls.[9]
On January 11, 2016, seven candidates were revealed to have been invited to the prime-time debate: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. The participants were introduced in order of their poll rankings at the debate.
Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum participated in the undercard debate. Rand Paul was also invited to the undercard debate, but said, "I won't participate in anything that's not first tier because we have a first tier campaign."[10] [11] The candidates were introduced in order of their poll rankings. The first question was to assess the economy. The next questions asked Fiorina about the role of the US in the world, Santorum about the Iran deal, and Huckabee about the solution to Afghanistan's problems.
February 13, 2016 – Greenville, South CarolinaThe ninth debate, and second debate in the month of February, was held in another early primary state of South Carolina, and aired on CBS News. The debate was moderated by John Dickerson in the Peace Center, began at 9 p.m. ET and lasted for 90 minutes.[12]
| Donald Trump | Ted Cruz | Jeb Bush | Margin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | until February 20, 2016 | February 20, 2016 | 18.8% | 31.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% | Trump +13.0 | |||
| FiveThirtyEight | until February 20, 2016 | February 20, 2016 | 19.8% | 30.5% | 19.5% | 11.4% | Trump +10.7 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | February 20, 2016 | Donald Trump32.51% | Marco Rubio22.48% | Ted Cruz22.33% | Jeb Bush 7.84%, John Kasich 7.61%, Ben Carson 7.23% | |||
| Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle[13] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780 | February 18–19, 2016 | Donald Trump 26.9% | Marco Rubio 24.1% | Ted Cruz18.8% | Jeb Bush 10.6%, Ben Carson 8.2%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 3.9% | |||
| South CarolinaHouse GOP[14] Margin of error: ± 2.0% Sample size: 3500 | February 18, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.51% | Ted Cruz18.96% | Marco Rubio18.07% | Jeb Bush 11.56%, John Kasich 8.49%, Ben Carson 5.22%, Undecided 4.19% | |||
| National Research[15] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 500 | February 17–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% | Ted Cruz19% | Marco Rubio18% | Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Refused 2%, Undecided 7% | |||
| ARG[16] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401 | February 17–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% | Marco Rubio22% | John Kasich14% | Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3% | |||
| Emerson College[17] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 418 | February 16–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% | Ted Cruz19% | Marco Rubio18% | John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6% | |||
| Clemson University[18] Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 650 | February 14–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% | Ted Cruz19% | Marco Rubio15% | Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Ben Carson 6%, Undecided 13% | |||
| ARG[19] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 | February 16–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Marco Rubio20% | John Kasich15% | Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% | |||
| Harper Polling[20] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 599 | February 16–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% | Ted Cruz17% | Marco Rubio15% | Jeb Bush 14%, John Kasich 13%, Ben Carson 8%, Undecided 5% | |||
| NBC News/Wall StreetJournal/Marist College[21] Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 722 | February 15–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% | Ted Cruz23% | Marco Rubio15% | Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%, Undecided 5% | |||
| Fox News[22] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 759 | February 15–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% | Ted Cruz19% | Marco Rubio15% | Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 8% | |||
| Emerson College[23] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 315 | February 15–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz20% | Marco Rubio19% | John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4% | |||
| ARG[24] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 | February 14–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% | Marco Rubio16% | Ted Cruz14% | John Kasich 14%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 8% | |||
| Monmouth University[25] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 | February 14–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% | Ted Cruz19% | Marco Rubio17% | John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 5% | |||
| Bloomberg/Selzer[26] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 502 | February 13–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% | Ted Cruz17% | Marco Rubio15% | Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 3% | |||
| Public Policy Polling[27] Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 897 | February 14–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% | Ted Cruz18% | Marco Rubio18% | John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 6% | |||
| South CarolinaHouse GOP[28] Margin of error: ± 2.4% Sample size: 1700 | February 15, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.57% | Ted Cruz15.54% | Marco Rubio14.83% | Jeb Bush 14.54%, John Kasich 7.98%, Ben Carson 6.55%, Undecided 7.03% | |||
| CNN/ORC[29] Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 404 | February 10–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% | Ted Cruz22% | Marco Rubio14% | Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%, John Kasich 4%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided 1%, No Opinion 3% | |||
| ARG[30] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 | February 12–13, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% | John Kasich15% | Marco Rubio14% | Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 10% | |||
| South CarolinaHouse GOP[31] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1200 | February 11–12, 2016 | Donald Trump 34.5% | Ted Cruz15.5% | Jeb Bush13% | Marco Rubio 12.5%, John Kasich 8.5%, Ben Carson 5%, Undecided 11% | |||
| CBS News/YouGov[32] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 744 | February 10–12, 2016 | Donald Trump 42% | Ted Cruz20% | Marco Rubio15% | John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1% | |||
| Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle[33] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 779 | February 10–11, 2016 | Donald Trump 36.3% | Ted Cruz19.6% | Marco Rubio14.6% | Jeb Bush 10.9%, John Kasich 8.7%, Ben Carson 4.7%, Undecided 5.2% | |||
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[34] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 718 | January 17–23, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% | Ted Cruz20% | Marco Rubio14% | Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 0%, Undecided 6% | |||
| CBS/YouGov[35] Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 804 | January 18–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 40% | Ted Cruz21% | Marco Rubio13% | Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0% | |||
| Morris News/Opinion Savvy[36] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 683 | January 15, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% | Ted Cruz18% | Jeb Bush13% | Marco Rubio 11%, Ben Carson 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 3% | |||
| Associated Industries of FloridaMargin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 600 | December 16–17, 2015 | Donald Trump 27% | Ted Cruz 27% | Marco Rubio12% | Ben Carson 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Others 5%, Undecided 11% | |||
| CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 1469 | December 14–17, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% | Ted Cruz23% | Marco Rubio12% | Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1% | |||
| Opinion Savvy/Augusta ChronicleMargin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 536 | December 16, 2015 | Donald Trump 28.3% | Ted Cruz21.1% | Marco Rubio11.6% | Jeb Bush 9.6%, Ben Carson 9.5%, Chris Christie 5.5%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Rand Paul 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.9%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.2%, Undecided 1.3% | |||
| Winthrop University Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 828 | November 30 – December 7, 2015 | Donald Trump 24% | Ted Cruz16% | Ben Carson14% | Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0% | |||
| Fox NewsMargin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 437 | December 5–8, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% | Ben Carson15% | Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz14% | Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, None of the Above 1%, Don't Know 5% | |||
| CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: ? | November 15–19, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% | Ben Carson19% | Marco Rubio16% | Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% | |||
| Public Policy PollingMargin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 787 | November 7–8, 2015 | Donald Trump 25% | Ben Carson21% | Ted Cruz15% | Marco Rubio 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, John Kasich 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3% | |||
| CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 843 | October 15–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 40% | Ben Carson23% | Ted Cruz8% | Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No Preference 5% | |||
| Clemson-Palmetto Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 600 | October 13–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 23% | Ben Carson 19% | Ted Cruz8% | Carly Fiorina 6%, Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, undecided/DK 15% | |||
| CNN/ORCMargin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 521 | October 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 36% | Ben Carson18% | Marco Rubio9% | Carly Fiorina 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore *%, George Pataki *% Bobby Jindal *%, None 1%, No opinion 4% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 762 | October 1, 2015 | Donald Trump 29.1% | Ben Carson16.4% | Carly Fiorina11.1% | Ted Cruz 8.1%, Marco Rubio 8%, Jeb Bush 5.9%, John Kasich 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.5%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rand Paul 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.3% Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Unsure 9.9% | |||
| CBS News/YouGovMargin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 1002 | September 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 36% | Ben Carson21% | Ted Cruz6% | Lindsey Graham 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 5% | |||
| Public Policy PollingMargin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 764 | September 3–6, 2015 | Donald Trump 37% | Ben Carson21% | Ted Cruz6% | Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% | |||
| Monmouth University Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 453 | August 20–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 30% | Ben Carson15% | Jeb Bush9% | Carly Fiorina 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 4%, Scott Walker 4%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 11% | |||
| Opinion Savvy/Insider AdvantageMargin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 509 | August 3, 2015 | Donald Trump 31.3% | Jeb Bush13.9% | Ben Carson9.9% | Mike Huckabee 8.5%, Lindsey Graham 6.5%, Scott Walker 5.8%, Ted Cruz 4.3%, Chris Christie 4.1%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.7%, Bobby Jindal 0.7%, Rick Perry 0.6%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 3.1%, Undecided 2.5% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 609 | July 29–30, 2015 | Donald Trump 34% | Ben Carson10.9% | Jeb Bush10.5% | Scott Walker 10.3%, Marco Rubio 6%, Mike Huckabee 5.5%, Lindsey Graham 4.9%, Ted Cruz 3.4%, John Kasich 3.3%, Chris Christie 2.5%, Rick Perry 2.5%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, Rand Paul 1%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, George Pataki 0.7% | |||
| Morning ConsultMargin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 389 | May 31 – June 8, 2015 | Lindsey Graham 14% | Ben Carson 12% | Jeb Bush 11% | Scott Walker 10%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Donald Trump 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Don't know/No Opinion/Refused 16%, Someone else 2% | |||
| Winthrop University Margin of error: ± 3.2% Sample size: 956 | April 4–12, 2015 | Scott Walker 13.6% | Jeb Bush 12.7% | Ted Cruz8.1% | Lindsey Graham 7.6%, Rand Paul 6.2%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.9%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 1.9%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, John Bolton 0.2%, Other 1.4%, Undecided 25.1% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 1,371 | March 26–27, 2015 | Scott Walker 17% | Jeb Bush 16% | Ted Cruz13% | Lindsey Graham 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Undecided 18% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 792 | February 24–25, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% | Scott Walker 17% | Lindsey Graham12% | Mike Huckabee 10%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 16% | |||
| Public Policy PollingMargin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 525 | February 12–15, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% | Scott Walker 18% | Ben Carson13% | Lindsey Graham 13%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Other/Undecided 6% | |||
| NBC News/MaristMargin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450 | February 3–10, 2015 | Lindsey Graham 17% | Jeb Bush 15% | Scott Walker12% | Ben Carson 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Ted Cruz 1%, Undecided 11% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 831 | January 21–22, 2015 | Mitt Romney 20% | Jeb Bush16% | Scott Walker9% | Ted Cruz 8%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 12% | |||
| Jeb Bush 18% | Mike Huckabee11% | Scott Walker11% | Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Rick Perry 5%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 17% | |||||
| Clemson University Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 400 | May 22–29, 2014 | Jeb Bush 22% | Chris Christie10% | Ted Cruz9% | Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Undecided/Don't know 48% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 735 | March 6–7, 2014 | Jeb Bush 22% | Mike Huckabee 19% | Chris Christie12% | Ted Cruz 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 19% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 601 | November 30 – December 2, 2013 | Chris Christie 16.6% | Jeb Bush 16% | Mike Huckabee 15.8% | Ted Cruz 11.1%, Rand Paul 9.7%, Marco Rubio 7.2%, Rick Santorum 2.8%, Scott Walker 2.3%, Undecided 18.5% | |||
| Harper PollingMargin of error: ± 5.03% Sample size: 379 | October 27–28, 2013 | Chris Christie 19% | Ted Cruz 17% | Rand Paul13% | Marco Rubio 12%, Paul Ryan 12%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Not sure 21% |
Primary date: February 20, 2016
District conventions: April 2016
State convention: May 7, 2016
National delegates: 50
| 2016 South Carolina Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[37] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Cruz | Trump | Rubio | Kasich | Bush | % oftotal vote | |
| Total vote | 22.3 | 33.5 | 22.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 93% | |
| Gender | |||||||
| Men | 22 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 51% | |
| Women | 22 | 29 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 49% | |
| Race | |||||||
| White | 22 | 33 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 96% | |
| Education and Race | |||||||
| White College Graduate | 19 | 25 | 27 | 11 | 9 | 52% | |
| White Non-college | 24 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 45% | |
| Age | |||||||
| 17–44 years old | 26 | 26 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 27% | |
| 45+ years old | 21 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 73% | |
| Income | |||||||
| $30,000 - $49,999 | 27 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 17% | |
| $50,000 - $99,999 | 26 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 37% | |
| $100,000 - $199,999 | 17 | 28 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 26% | |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||||||
| Immigration | 25 | 51 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10% | |
| Economy | 15 | 36 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 29% | |
| Terrorism | 25 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 32% | |
| Government spending | 25 | 25 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 26% | |
| Area type | |||||||
| Urban | 18 | 23 | 31 | 12 | 10 | 23% | |
| Suburban | 26 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 48% | |
| Rural | 20 | 34 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 29% | |
| Religion | |||||||
| Evangelical | 26 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 67% | |
| Non-Evangelical | 17 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 33% | |
| Veteran household | |||||||
| Yes | 21 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 17% | |
| No | 24 | 31 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 83% | |
Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary by ten points. He carried the crucial Evangelical vote with 33% to Cruz at 27% and Rubio at 22%.[38] [39] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.[40]
Marco Rubio, who enjoyed the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley,[41] came in second in the primary. Rubio won the two urban counties of Richland and Charleston, both of which have a higher percentage of college-educated voters.