2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary explained

Election Name:2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
Country:New Hampshire
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
Next Year:2020
Image1:Donald Trump August 19, 2015 (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:Donald Trump
Color1:283681
Home State1:New York
Delegate Count1:11
Popular Vote1:100,735
Percentage1:35.23%
Candidate2:John Kasich
Color2:00B487
Home State2:Ohio
Delegate Count2:4
Popular Vote2:44,932
Percentage2:15.72%
Image3:Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate3:Ted Cruz
Color3:DAA520
Home State3:Texas
Delegate Count3:3
Popular Vote3:33,244
Percentage3:11.63%
Image4:Jeb_Bush_by_Gage_Skidmore_2_(cropped).jpg
Candidate4:Jeb Bush
Color4:993399
Home State4:Florida
Delegate Count4:3
Popular Vote4:31,341
Percentage4:10.96%
Image5:Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg
Candidate5:Marco Rubio
Color5:C60E3B
Home State5:Florida
Delegate Count5:2
Popular Vote5:30,071
Percentage5:10.52%
Image6:File:Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie at -FITN in Nashua, New Hampshire (17201866442) (crop).jpg
Candidate6:Chris Christie
Color6:117733
Home State6:New Jersey
Delegate Count6:0
Popular Vote6:21,089
Percentage6:7.38%
Votes For Election:23 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
Outgoing Members:IA
Elected Members:SC

The 2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, which took place on February 9, was the second major vote of the cycle. Donald Trump was declared the winner with 35.2% of the popular vote and picked up 11 delegates, while John Kasich emerged from a pack of candidates between 10-20% to capture second place with 15.8% of the vote and picked up four delegates.

It occurred on the same day as the Democratic primary.

Chris Christie,[1] Carly Fiorina,[2] and Jim Gilmore dropped out of the race after poor showings in the primary.

Campaign

Politico described the 2016 Republican primary in New Hampshire as a "topsy-turvy" campaign that saw "an all-out assault" on "establishment" politics.[3]

Donald Trump dominated the polling results,[4] with Chris Christie, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush vying to place second and emerge as the leading mainstream alternative to Trump and to Ted Cruz.[5] In November Chris Christie gained the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader.[6] Candidates receiving the endorsement later received a boost of on average 8 points in the polls, but the endorsed candidate only won a Republican primary in half of the elections from 1980 to 2012.[7] But in late January The Boston Globe and the Concord Monitor endorsed Kasich, leading Politico to dub him the winner of the "newspaper primary."[3]

Major debates and forums

Two major televised gatherings of major candidates took place during the 2015-16 campaign, both took place at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics of Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire.

August 3, 2015 – Voters First Presidential Forum

The 2016 Voters First Presidential Forum was moderated by Jack Heath of WGIR radio, who asked questions of each of the participating candidates based on a random draw. Candidates each had three opportunities to speak: two rounds of questions, and a closing statement.[8] Topics of discussion during the forum were partially selected based on the results of an online voter survey.[9] The facilities were provided by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Political Library of St. Anselm College. The forum was organized in response[10] to the top-ten invitation limitations placed by Fox News and CNN on their first televised debates (see descriptions below).

Eleven of the candidates participated: Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio participated in the forum via satellite to avoid missing a vote.[11] Three major Republican candidates who did not participate were Donald Trump (who chose not to attend), Jim Gilmore (who missed the cutoff deadline)[12] and Mike Huckabee (who was invited, but did not respond).[12] Mark Everson did not receive an invitation, albeit after a "serious look."[13] [14]

The Voters First forum was broadcast nationally[15] by C-SPAN[16] as the originating source media entity, beginning at 6:30 p.m. EDT and lasting from 7 to 9 p.m. The event was also simulcast and/or co-sponsored by television stations KCRG-TV in Iowa, New England Cable News in the northeast, WBIN-TV in New Hampshire,[17] WLTX-TV in South Carolina, radio stations New Hampshire Public Radio, WGIR in New Hampshire, iHeartRadio on the internet (C-SPAN is also offering an online version of the broadcast), and newspapers the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa, the Union Leader in New Hampshire, and the Post and Courier in Charleston South Carolina.[12] There was a live audience, with tickets to the event awarded via a lottery.

Lesser known candidates forum at Goffstown

One of the highlights of the campaign is when the nonrecognized candidates gather together to introduce themselves to the public at this event, which first was held in 1972.[18] Five candidates participated. They were Stephen Comley, Tim Cook, Walter Iwachiw, Andy Martin, and Joe Robinson.

February 6, 2016 – Goffstown, New Hampshire

Candidate Airtime[19] Polls[20]
15:3233.2%
17:3420.7%
18:1413.3%
8:467.8%
12:304.5%
12:533.0%
10:332.8%
The eighth debate was held in New Hampshire, the first state to hold primaries, was organized by ABC News and the Independent Journal Review. It was scheduled to be held in the St Anselm's College Institute of Politics.[21] The eighth debate did not feature an undercard event.[22] David Muir and Martha Raddatz were moderaters, along with WMUR political director Josh McElveen and Mary Katherine Ham.[23]

To participate in the debate, a candidate must either have placed among the top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus, or placed among the top 6 candidates in an average of New Hampshire or national polls recognized by ABC News. Only polls conducted no earlier than January 1 and released by February 4 were included in the averages.[24]

On February 4, 2016, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump were invited to the debate.[25] Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore were not invited as they did not meet the criteria.[26]

The debate was notable for Rubio's poor performance, where he repeated the same phrase four times, including once while Christie was criticizing him for making "canned" remarks.[27] [28]

Candidates

Twenty-six total candidates were on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.[29] The following notable candidates were listed in five major polls and participated in authorized debates. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and George Pataki of New York withdrew from the race, but remained on the ballot.

The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate.

CandidateRésuméPortraitdata-sort-type="number" style="padding:10px; width:98px;"popular votedata-sort-type="number" style="padding:10px; width:98px;" percentagedata-sort-type="number" style="padding:10px;"Delegates won
Donald TrumpCEO of The Trump Organization (campaign)100,406 35.3% 11
John KasichGovernor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001; presidential candidate in 2000 (campaign)[30] [31] 44,909 15.8% 4
Ted CruzU.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008 (campaign)[32] 33,189 11.7% 3
Jeb BushGovernor of Florida 1999–2007; Florida Secretary of Commerce 1987–1988 (campaign)[33] [34] 31,310[35] 11% 3
Marco RubioU.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Florida Speaker of the House 2007–2008 (campaign)[36] [37] [38] 30,032 10.6% 2
Chris ChristieGovernor of New Jersey since 2010, U.S. Attorney from the district of New Jersey (campaign)[39] [40] 21,069 7.4% none
Carly FiorinaFormer Hewlett-Packard CEO 1999–2005; nominee for Senate in California in 2010 (campaign)[41] [42] 11,706 4.1% none
Ben CarsonAuthor and former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at the Johns Hopkins Hospital 1984–2013 (campaign)[43] [44] [45] 6,509 2.3% none
Jim GilmorePresidential candidate in 2008, Governor of Virginia 1998–2002 (campaign)[46] [47] 133[48] 0.05% none

The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate, but withdrew their candidacies before the New Hampshire primary.

CandidateRésuméPortraitdata-sort-type="number" style="padding:10px; width:98px;"popular votedata-sort-type="number" style="padding:10px; width:98px;"percentageDelegates won
Lindsey GrahamU.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003 (campaign)[49] [50] 70 0% none (withdrew from the race earlier)
Mike HuckabeeGovernor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in 2008 (campaign)[51] [52] 215 0% none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)
Bobby JindalGovernor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008 (campaign)[53] [54] 64 0% none (withdrew from race earlier)
George PatakiGovernor of New York 1995–2006 (campaign)[55] [56] 80 0% none (withdrew from race earlier)
Rand PaulU.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011 and Ophthalmologist (campaign)[57] [58] [59] 1,900 0.67% none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)[60]
Rick SantorumU.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in 2012 (campaign)[61] [62] 155 0% none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)

The following candidates have not been listed in major independent polls nor participated in Republican party sanctioned debates:

Endorsements

Withdrawn candidates

Polling

See main article: Opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primary in New Hampshire.

Aggregate polls

Marco Rubio
! class="unsortable"
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Margin
RealClearPoliticsuntil February 9, 2016February 9, 201614.0%31.2%11.8%13.5%Trump +17.2
FiveThirtyEightuntil February 9, 2016February 9, 201615.7%26.8%12.0%15.2%Trump +11.0
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary resultsFebruary 9, 2016Donald Trump35.23%John Kasich15.72%Ted Cruz11.63%Jeb Bush 10.96%, Marco Rubio 10.52%, Chris Christie 7.38%, Carly Fiorina 4.12%, Ben Carson 2.28%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Mike Huckabee 0.08%, Rick Santorum 0.06%, Jim Gilmore 0.05%
ARG[63] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 418February 7–8, 2016Donald Trump
33%
John Kasich17%Marco Rubio14%Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 6%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[64] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 362February 4–8, 2016Donald Trump
31%
Marco Rubio17%Ted Cruz14%John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 7%
Gravis Marketing/One America News[65]

Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 705

February 7, 2016Donald Trump
28%
John Kasich17%Marco Rubio15%Jeb Bush 14%, Ted Cruz 11%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0.5%
ARG[66] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 427February 6–7, 2016Donald Trump
30%
John Kasich16%Marco Rubio16%Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 9%
UMass Lowell/7 News[67] Margin of error: ± 5.13% Sample size: 464February 5–7, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Marco Rubio13%Ted Cruz13%Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 9%
Emerson College[68] Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 686February 4–7, 2016Donald Trump
31%
Jeb Bush16%John Kasich13%Marco Rubio 12%, Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 3%,
ARGMargin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 422February 5–6, 2016Donald Trump
31%
John Kasich17%Marco Rubio17%Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 8%
Monmouth University[69] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 508February 4–6, 2016Donald Trump
30%
John Kasich14%Marco Rubio13%Jeb Bush 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
UMass Lowell/7 News[70] Margin of error: ± 4.82% Sample size: 516February 4–6, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Marco Rubio14%Ted Cruz13%Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 7%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[71] Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 362February 3–6, 2016Donald Trump
33%
Marco Rubio16%Ted Cruz14%John Kasich 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Someone Else 1%, Not Sure 6%
Franklin Pierce University/RKM/Boston Herald[72]

Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433

February 2–6, 2016Donald Trump
31%
Ted Cruz16%Marco Rubio15%John Kasich 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Unsure 3%
ARG[73] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 415February 4–5, 2016Donald Trump
34%
John Kasich17%Marco Rubio16%Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 6%
UMass Lowell/7 News[74] Margin of error: ± 4.86% Sample size: 501February 3–5, 2016Donald Trump
35%
Marco Rubio14%Ted Cruz13%John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Undecided 9%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe[75]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500

February 3–4, 2016Donald Trump
28.8%
Marco Rubio19.4%John Kasich13%Jeb Bush 9.8%, Ted Cruz 6.6%, Chris Christie 5.2%, Ben Carson 4.4%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Other 1%, Undecided 8%
ARG[76] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 420February 3–4, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Marco Rubio15%John Kasich14%Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 6%
MassINC/WBUR[77] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 410February 2–4, 2016Donald Trump
29%
Marco Rubio12%Ted Cruz12%Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 9%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 4%, Jim Gilmore <1% Other <1%, Won't Vote 1%, Don't Know 5%
UMass Lowell/7 News[78] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 500February 2–4, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Marco Rubio15%Ted Cruz14%Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 6%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[79] Margin of error: ± 6.8% Sample size: 209February 2–4, 2016Donald Trump
29%
Marco Rubio18%Ted Cruz13%John Kasich 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone Else 2%, Not Sure 8%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist[80] Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 653February 2–3, 2016Donald Trump
30%
Marco Rubio17%Ted Cruz15%John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 7%
ARG[81] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 600February 2–3, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Marco Rubio14%John Kasich13%Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 8%
UMass Lowell/7 News[82] Margin of error: ± 4.87% Sample size: 487February 1–3, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Marco Rubio15%Ted Cruz14%Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 8%
Harper Polling[83] Margin of error: ± 4.75% Sample size: 425February 1–2, 2016Donald Trump
31%
Jeb Bush14%John Kasich12%Marco Rubio 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8%
UMass Lowell/7 News[84] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 502January 31–February 2, 2016Donald Trump
38%
Ted Cruz14%Marco Rubio12%Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 4%
UMass Amherst/WBZ-TV/YouGov[85]

Margin of error: ± 7.1% Sample size: 390

January 29–February 2, 2016Donald Trump
35%
Marco Rubio15%John Kasich11%Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 8%, Unsure 3%
ARG[86] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600January 29–31, 2016Donald Trump
34%
John Kasich16%Marco Rubio11%Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Undecided 6%
UMass Lowell/7 News[87] Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 461January 29–31, 2016Donald Trump
38%
Ted Cruz12%John Kasich9%Jeb Bush 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Other 2%, Not Sure 5%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[88] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 409January 27–30, 2016Donald Trump
30%
Ted Cruz12%Marco Rubio11%John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 3%, Not Sure 10%
Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald[89]

Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 439

January 26–30, 2016Donald Trump
38%
Ted Cruz13%Jeb Bush10%Marco Rubio 10%, John Kasich 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 2%
Suffolk University[90] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500January 25–27, 2016Donald Trump
26.6%
John Kasich12%Ted Cruz11.8%Jeb Bush 11.2%, Marco Rubio 9.6%, Chris Christie 5.6%, Ben Carson 4.8%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Mike Huckabee 0.4%, Jim Gilmore 0.2%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 0.4%, Undecided 11.8%
Adrian GrayConsulting[91]

Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 583

January 25–27, 2016Donald Trump
27%
Marco Rubio15%Ted Cruz13%John Kasich 12%, Jeb Bush 11%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Don't know 5%
Emerson College[92] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 373January 25–26, 2016Donald Trump
35%
Jeb Bush18%John Kasich14%Marco Rubio 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 1%
ARG[93] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600January 23–25, 2016Donald Trump
31%
John Kasich17%Ted Cruz12%Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 6%
Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald[94] Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 444January 20–24, 2016Donald Trump
33%
Ted Cruz14%John Kasich12%Jeb Bush 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 1%, Unsure 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[95] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 612January 17–23, 2016Donald Trump
31%
Ted Cruz12%Marco Rubio/John Kasich11%Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%
Fox News[96] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401January 19–21, 2016Donald Trump
31%
Ted Cruz14%Marco Rubio13%John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 7%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, None of the above 1%, Don't know 5%
CBS/YouGov[97] Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 476January 19–21, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Ted Cruz16%Marco Rubio14%John Kasich 10%, Chris Christie 7%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%
ARGMargin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600January 15–18, 2016Donald Trump
27%
John Kasich20%Marco Rubio10%Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 7%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[98] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 414January 13–18, 2016Donald Trump
34%
Ted Cruz14%Marco Rubio10%Jeb Bush 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 6%, John Kasich 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Don't know 6%
Mason-Dixon/AARP[99] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 503January 12–16, 2016Donald Trump
32%
Marco Rubio14%John Kasich13%Chris Christie 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 6%, Ben Carson 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 4%
ARG[100] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600January 7–10, 2016Donald Trump
25%
Marco Rubio/John Kasich14%Chris Christie10%Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 8%
Monmouth University[101] Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 414January 7–10, 2016Donald Trump
32%
John Kasich/Ted Cruz14%Marco Rubio 12%Chris Christie 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[102] Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 569January 2–7, 2016Donald Trump
30%
Marco Rubio14%Chris Christie12%Ted Cruz 10%, John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee <1%, Other <1%, Undecided 5%
NH1/Reach[103] Margin of error: ± 3.1% Sample size: 1000January 7, 2016Donald Trump
31.7%
Jeb Bush11.9%John Kasich 11.8%Chris Christie 11.0%, Ted Cruz 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Ben Carson 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 1.0%
Fox News[104] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 414January 4–7, 2016Donald Trump
33%
Marco Rubio15%Ted Cruz 12%Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4%
Public Policy Polling[105] Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 515January 4–6, 2016Donald Trump
29%
Marco Rubio15%Chris Christie/John Kasich11%Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 2%

Results

New Hampshire Republican primary, February 9, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump100,73535.23%11011
John Kasich44,93215.72%404
Ted Cruz33,24411.63%303
Jeb Bush31,34110.96%303
Marco Rubio30,07110.52%202
Chris Christie21,0897.38%000
Carly Fiorina11,7744.12%000
Ben Carson6,5272.28%000
Rand Paul (withdrawn)1,9300.68%000
Write-ins2,9121.02%000
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)2160.08%000
Andy Martin2020.07%000
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)1600.06%000
Jim Gilmore1340.05%000
Richard Witz1040.04%000
George Pataki (withdrawn)790.03%000
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)730.03%000
Brooks Andrews Cullison560.02%000
Timothy Cook550.02%000
Bobby Jindal (withdrawn)530.02%000
Frank Lynch470.02%000
Joe Robinson440.02%000
Stephen Bradley Comley320.01%000
Chomi Prag160.01%000
Jacob Daniel Dyas150.01%000
Stephen John McCarthy120%000
Walter Iwachiw90%000
Kevin Glenn Huey80%000
Matt Drozd60%000
Robert Lawrence Mann50%000
Peter Messina50%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:285,916100.00%23023
Source: The Green Papers
Note: Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally. Of the 25 candidate/hopefuls, five candidates garnered delegates.

Results by county

!County!Trump!Kasich!Cruz
Belknap35.16%15.73%12.89%
Carroll33.95%18.55%11.05%
Cheshire33.42%16.05%13.92%
Coos36.99%15.97%10.18%
Grafton29.36%20.83%10.35%
Hillsborough34.89%14.89%11.43%
Merrimack33.02%18.61%11.39%
Rockingham38.73%13.98%10.78%
Strafford33.40%14.50%15.09%
Sullivan36.73%15.91%11.34%
TOTAL35.23%15.71%11.63%
Source: uselectionatlas.org

Exit polls

2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[106]
Demographic subgroupCruzTrumpRubioKasichBush% oftotal vote
Total vote11.635.210.515.711.090%
Gender
Men1238916852%
Women113312161448%
Age
17–29 years old173812111015%
30–44 years old12361812717%
45–64 years old11368181149%
65+ years old93111191519%
Income
Under $30,0001439971610%
$30,000 - $49,9991240913916%
$50,000 - $99,999123710161133%
$100,000 - $199,999103213191131%
Over $200,00093212201310%
Education
College Graduate113012191253%
Non-college13421012947%
Issue regarded as most important
Immigration214485615%
Economy63012241233%
Terrorism122813151424%
Government spending13288151026%
Area type
Urban12379131210%
Suburban113711141154%
Rural123311191137%
Religion
Evangelical242813111123%
Non-Evangelical83810181177%
Gun household
Yes12408131057%
No92815211343%

Analysis

According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump's landslide in New Hampshire could be attributed to strong support from non-college whites and voters holding a moderate political ideology. Trump amassed the largest margin of victory in a New Hampshire Republican primary since 2000, when John McCain upset George W. Bush. In his victory speech, Trump promised, "I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created," and that he will "knock the hell out of ISIS."[107] Trump's tough-on-terror message resonated in the state, where 65% of Republican voters supported his proposed Muslim ban.

See also

Notes and References

  1. News: Burns . Alexander . Haberman . Maggie . 2016-02-10 . Chris Christie Drops Out of Presidential Race After New Hampshire Flop . en-US . The New York Times . 2022-06-18 . 0362-4331.
  2. News: Parker . Ashley . 2016-02-10 . Carly Fiorina Drops Out of Republican Presidential Race . en-US . The New York Times . 2022-06-18 . 0362-4331.
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