| Election Name: | 2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses |
| Country: | Nevada |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | Nevada Republican caucuses, 2012 |
| Previous Year: | 2012 |
| Next Election: | Nevada Republican caucuses, 2020 |
| Next Year: | 2020 |
| Candidate1: | Donald Trump |
| Color1: | 283681 |
| Home State1: | New York |
| Delegate Count1: | 14 |
| Popular Vote1: | 34,531 |
| Percentage1: | 45.91% |
| Candidate2: | Marco Rubio |
| Color2: | c60e3b |
| Home State2: | Florida |
| Delegate Count2: | 7 |
| Popular Vote2: | 17,940 |
| Percentage2: | 23.85% |
| Candidate3: | Ted Cruz |
| Color3: | d4aa00 |
| Home State3: | Texas |
| Delegate Count3: | 6 |
| Popular Vote3: | 16,079 |
| Percentage3: | 21.38% |
| Candidate4: | Ben Carson |
| Color4: | 99CCFF |
| Home State4: | Virginia |
| Popular Vote4: | 3,619 |
| Percentage4: | 4.81% |
| Delegate Count4: | 2 |
| Candidate5: | John Kasich |
| Color5: | 00B487 |
| Home State5: | Ohio |
| Popular Vote5: | 2,709 |
| Percentage5: | 3.60% |
| Delegate Count5: | 1 |
| Map Size: | 200px |
| Elected Members: | AK |
| Outgoing Members: | SC |
| Votes For Election: | 30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention |
The 2016 Nevada Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 23 in the U.S. state of Nevada, marking the Republican Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
With the Democratic Party having already held its Nevada caucuses three days earlier on February 20, the Republican caucus in Nevada was the only presidential primary on that day.
During the 2015 legislative session, lawmakers attempted to change the caucus into a regular primary and at a much earlier date,[1] however the bill failed to advance to a vote.[2]
Nine candidates were eligible:[3] [4]
See also: Republican Party presidential debates, 2016. December 15, 2015 – Las Vegas, Nevada
The fifth debate was held on December 15, 2015, at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.[5] It was the second debate to air on CNN, and was also broadcast by Salem Radio. The debate was moderated solely by Wolf Blitzer with Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt serving alongside as questioners.[6]
The debate was split into primetime and pre-primetime groups based on averaged polling numbers; in order to participate in the main debate, candidates had to meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 which were recognized by CNN—either an average of at least 3.5% nationally, or at least 4% in either Iowa or New Hampshire.[7] The secondary debate featured candidates that had reached at least 1% in four separate national, Iowa, or New Hampshire polls that are recognized by CNN. Paul was included in the main debate after not qualifying under the original rules because he received 5% support in Iowa in a Fox News poll.[8]
The debate lineup was announced on December 13 to include Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Carson, Bush, Fiorina, Christie, Paul, and Kasich in the primetime debate, and Huckabee, Santorum, Graham, and Pataki in the undercard debate. Commentators suggested that the key confrontation would be between Trump and Cruz, based on their respective polling in Iowa.[9]
Eighteen million people watched the debate, making it the third-largest audience ever for a presidential primary debate.[10] During the debate, the audible coughing was attributed to Ben Carson. His campaign admitted that they all got sick a month prior and Carson had kept the cough for weeks. The cough was "almost gone" and Carson was not really sick at the time.[11]
The undercard debate was the fourth and final debate appearance of Senator Lindsey Graham and former Governor George Pataki, who suspended their campaigns on December 21[12] and December 29,[13] respectively.
See also: Endorsements for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016.
Having been swept into numerous offices in the previous election, many new Nevada Republican officeholders came out in support of various candidates. Notably, there were splits among different groups of Republicans towards their endorsements. Legislators who had supported a controversial tax hike during the 2015 session came out in support of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, while those who opposed it supported Rand Paul, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.
(Note: This list contains endorsements only for candidates who were still running at the time of the caucuses)
See also: Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016.
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results | February 23, 2016 | Donald Trump45.75% | Marco Rubio23.77% | Ted Cruz21.30% | Ben Carson 4.79%, John Kasich 3.59% | |||
| CNN/ORC[14] Margin of error: ± 6.5% Sample size: 245 | February 10–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 45% | Marco Rubio19% | Ted Cruz17% | Ben Carson 7%, John Kasich 5%, Jeb Bush 1%, Someone else 2%, No opinion 4% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 406 | December 23–27, 2015 | Donald Trump 33% | Ted Cruz20% | Marco Rubio11% | Ben Carson 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, John Kasich 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Unsure 12% | |||
| Morning ConsultMargin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 249 | November 10–16, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% | Ben Carson18% | Marco Rubio12% | Ted Cruz 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Someone else 1%, Don't know/No opinion 8% | |||
| CNN/ORC[15] Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 285 | October 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% | Ben Carson22% | Carly Fiorina8% | Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 2%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Chris Christie 1%, George Pataki 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, None 3%, No opinion 3% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 623 | July 12–13, 2015 | Donald Trump 28% | Scott Walker15% | Ben Carson8% | Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Ted Cruz 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, George Pataki 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 20% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 443 | March 27, 2015 | Ted Cruz 18% | Scott Walker 18% | Jeb Bush 16% | Marco Rubio 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Undecided 20% | |||
| Gravis MarketingMargin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 438 | February 21–22, 2015 | Scott Walker 27% | Jeb Bush19% | Chris Christie8% | Ted Cruz 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Rick Perry 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 16% |
Primary date: February 23, 2016
County conventions: March 12 - April 2, 2016 (presumably)
State convention: May 7–8, 2016 (presumably)
National delegates: 30
Delegates were awarded to candidates who got more than 3.33% of the vote proportionally.
Donald Trump received more votes than the combined total of the 2012 Nevada caucuses, while also beating Mitt Romney's previous two records.[16] On the eve of the caucuses, Trump stopped by Palo Verde High School in Summerlin to greet voters.[17]
| Carson City | 18.8% | 24.4% | 43.4% | |
| Churchill | 23.13% | 25.35% | 39.88% | |
| Clark | 19.10% | 24.58% | 48.93% | |
| Douglas | 25.88% | 27.09% | 36.44% | |
| Elko | 43.84% | 21.22% | 25.32% | |
| Esmeralda | 12.16% | 10.81% | 62.16% | |
| Eureka | 34.36% | 15.90% | 41.54% | |
| Humboldt | 21.90% | 21.09% | 41.83% | |
| Lander | 35.66% | 17.35% | 39.76% | |
| Lincoln | 44.56% | 16.14% | 28.77% | |
| Lyon | 24.52% | 17.45% | 48.24% | |
| Mineral | 19.37% | 19.90% | 50.79% | |
| Nye | 23.52% | 12.68% | 56.48% | |
| Pershing | 28.28% | 19.66% | 40.69% | |
| Storey | 21.07% | 15.20% | 42.93% | |
| Washoe | 20.87% | 24.58% | 44.13% | |
| White Pine | 26.90% | 22.53% | 39.54% | |
| TOTAL | 21.38% | 23.85% | 45.91% | |
| Source: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=32&year=2016&f=0&off=0&elect=2 | ||||
Donald Trump overwhelmingly won the caucuses, with Marco Rubio, who for a time lived in Nevada, coming in a distant second. According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump won among ideologically moderate (50%) and somewhat conservative (55%) voters.[18] Trump carried white caucus-goers with 47% and Latino caucus-goers with 45%.[19]
Ted Cruz won two counties, Elko and Nye, the latter of which has a large LDS population.[20] Mormon voters continued to be a strong constituency for Cruz throughout the primary.