2016 Missouri gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
Country:	Missouri
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2012
Next Election:	2020 Missouri gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2020
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Image1:	File:Eric Greitens 2011-7.jpg
Nominee1:	Eric Greitens
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,433,397
Percentage1:	51.14%
Nominee2:	Chris Koster
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	1,277,360
Percentage2:	45.57%
Map Size:	275px
Governor
Before Election:	Jay Nixon
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Eric Greitens
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primaries were held on August 2. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term in office.^[1] State Attorney General Chris Koster and businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens won the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively.^{[2] [3]} On election day, November 8, 2016, the Associated Press declared Greitens the winner of the election, and Koster conceded shortly after.^[4]

Democratic primary

Declared

• Chris Koster, Attorney General of Missouri^{[5] [6] [7]}
• Eric Morrison, pastor, community leader ^[8]
• Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate^[9]
• Charles Wheeler, former mayor of Kansas City and former state senator^[10]

Declined

• Claire McCaskill, U.S. Senator, former state auditor of Missouri and nominee for governor in 2004^{[11] [12]}
• Clint Zweifel, State Treasurer of Missouri^[13]
• Joe Maxwell, former lieutenant governor of Missouri^[14]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster	Eric Morrison	Leonard Steinman	Charles Wheeler	Other	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	align=center	73%	3%	1%	8%	—	15%
SurveyUSA	July 20–24, 2016	500	± 4.4%	align=center	57%	7%	3%	7%	—	26%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Brunner, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012
• Eric Greitens, businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL^[15]
• Catherine Hanaway, former Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives and former United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri^[16]
• Peter Kinder, Lieutenant Governor of Missouri^[17]

Former

• Tom Schweich, State Auditor of Missouri (died February 26, 2015)^{[7] [18] [19] [20]}

Withdrew

• Randy Asbury, former state representative^{[21] [22]}
• Bob Dixon, state senator^{[23] [24]}
• Mike Parson, state senator (running for Lieutenant Governor)^{[25] [26]}

Declined

• Tim Jones, Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives^{[27] [28] [29] [30]}
• Bart Korman, state representative^{[31] [32]}
• Blaine Luetkemeyer, U.S. Representative^{[33] [34] [35] [36]}
• Ron Richard, state senator and former Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives^[37]
• Dave Spence, businessman and nominee for governor in 2012^[38]
• Jim Talent, former U.S. Senator^[39]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Brunner	Eric Greitens	Catherine Hanaway	Peter Kinder	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–27, 2016	400	± 5.0%	align=center	23%	21%	21%	18%	17%
SurveyUSA	July 20–24, 2016	773	± 3.6%	21%	align=center	25%	18%	18%	18%
OnMessage Inc.	July 17–18, 2016	500	± 4.4%	23%	21%	align=center	25%	19%	12%
Public Policy Polling	July 11–12, 2016	462	± 3.2%	16%	align=center	24%	22%	15%	align=center	23%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout	July 7–8, 2016	1,022	± 3.0%	22%	align=center	29%	16%	12%	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	John Brunner	Catherine Hanaway	Peter Kinder	Tom Schweich	Dave Spence	Other	Undecided
Remington Research Group	align=center rowspan=3	February 2–3, 2015	align=center rowspan=3	747	align=center rowspan=3	3.6%	10%	13%	—	align=center	16%	—	—	align=center	62%
	—	12%	align=center	24%	15%	—	—	align=center	48%
	—	16%	—	align=center	19%	—	18%	align=center	47%
Remington Research Group	align=center rowspan=2	January 2015	align=center rowspan=2	1,355	align=center rowspan=2	?	—	44%	—	align=center	56%	—	—	—
	—	align=center	39%	—	37%	25%	—	—

Results

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

• Don Fitz^{[40] [41]}

Independent

Candidates

Declared

• Les Turilli, Jr., businessman^[42]

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

• Cisse W. Spragins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and nominee for Missouri Secretary of State in 2012^[43]

Results

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, September 30, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[44]		August 12, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos^[45]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[46]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[47]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[48]		November 1, 2016
align=left	Governing^[49]		November 4, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Eric Greitens (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,368	± 4.6%	align=center	48%	47%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 31–Nov 6, 2016	1,119	± 4.6%	align=center	49%	46%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 28–Nov 3, 2016	879	± 4.6%	align=center	49%	47%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling	November 1–2, 2016	871	± 3.4%	align=center	47%	44%	4%	6%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	774	± 4.6%	align=center	50%	47%	—	3%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	October 31 – November 1, 2016	1,722	± 2.4%	45%	align=center	46%	4%	4%
DFM Research	October 27 – November 1, 2016	508	± 4.4%	align=center	45%	39%	10%	6%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	649	± 4.6%	align=center	52%	46%	—	2%
Monmouth University	October 28–31, 2016	405	± 4.9%	46%	46%	2%	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	671	± 4.6%	align=center	54%	44%	—	2%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R)	October 27–28, 2016	1,698	± 2.4%	align=center	46%	45%	—	9%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	October 24–26, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	45%	—	9%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	October 23–25, 2016	2,559	± 1.9%	align=center	47%	45%	4%	4%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	October 9–11, 2016	2,171	± 2.1%	align=center	48%	42%	5%	5%
Monmouth University	October 9–11, 2016	406	± 4.9%	align=center	46%	43%	2%	8%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	October 4–5, 2016	1,588	± 2.6%	align=center	44%	41%	5%	10%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	September 26–27, 2016	1,279	± 3.0%	align=center	51%	35%	5%^[50]	10%
The Tarrance Group (R-Greitens)	September 19–22, 2016	606	± 4.1%	align=center	45%	42%	—	13%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)	September 19–20, 2016	1,076	± 3.2%	align=center	47%	37%	4%^[51]	13%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing	September 11–13, 2016	604	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	41%	—	8%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing	September 4–6, 2016	589	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	41%	3%^[52]	9%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)	September 1–2, 2016	1,275	± 3.0%	align=center	46%	42%	—	12%
Monmouth University	August 19–22, 2016	401	± 4.9%	align=center	51%	40%	3%	6%
Remington Research Group (R)	August 5–6, 2016	1,280	± 3.0%	align=center	45%	43%	—	7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	52%	33%	—	15%
DFM Research	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	align=center	41%	24%	3%	31%
Public Policy Polling	September 22–23, 2015	731	± 3.6%	37%	align=center	44%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	40%	34%	—	26%

with John Brunner

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	John Brunner (R)	Other	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	40%	—	14%
DFM Research	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	align=center	42%	28%	2%	28%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	41%	36%	—	23%

with Catherine Hanaway

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Catherine Hanaway (R)	Other	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	52%	36%	—	12%
DFM Research	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	align=center	43%	31%	3%	23%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	40%	36%	—	23%
Gravius Public Polling	January 7–8, 2015	?	± 6%	align=center	29%	23%	—	align=center	48%
Wilson Perkins Allen (R-Hanaway)	January 15–19, 2014	700	± 3.7%	33%	align=center	35%	—	32%

with Peter Kinder

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Peter Kinder (R)	Other	Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon	July 23–24, 2016	625	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	46%	—	7%
DFM Research	March 17–24, 2016	674	± 3.8%	align=center	39%	37%	2%	22%
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	37%	align=center	40%	—	24%

with Bob Dixon

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Bob Dixon (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	39%	35%	—	26%

with Bart Korman

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Bart Korman (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	39%	31%	—	30%

with Tom Schweich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Tom Schweich (R)	Other	Undecided
Gravius Public Polling	January 7–8, 2015	?	± 6%	align=center	30%	26%	—	align=center	44%

with Randy Asbury

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Chris Koster (D)	Randy Asbury (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	August 7–9, 2015	859	± 3.3%	align=center	40%	35%	—	25%

with Claire McCaskill

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Claire McCaskill (D)	Catherine Hanaway (R)	Other	Undecided
Gravius Public Polling	January 7–8, 2015	?	± 6%	19%	align=center	30%	—	align=center	51%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Claire McCaskill (D)	Tom Schweich (R)	Other	Undecided
Gravius Public Polling	January 7–8, 2015	?	± 6%	20%	align=center	34%	—	align=center	46%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Adair (largest city: Kirksville)
• Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
• Bates (Largest city: Butler)
• Buchanan (Largest city: St. Joseph)
• Chariton (Largest city: Salisbury)
• Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
• Clay (Largest city: Liberty)
• Clinton (Largest city: Cameron)
• Dunklin (Largest city: Kennett)
• Franklin (Largest city: Washington)
• Greene (largest city: Springfield)
• Henry (Largest city: Clinton)
• Hickory (Largest city: Hermitage)
• Howard (Largest city: Fayette)
• Iron (Largest city: Ironton)
• Jefferson (Largest city: Arnold)
• Johnson (largest city: Warrensburg)
• Knox (Largest city: Edina)
• Lafayette (Largest city: Odessa)
• Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
• Linn (Largest city: Brookfield)
• Madison (Largest city: Fredericktown)
• Mississippi (Largest city: Charleston)
• Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)
• New Madrid (Largest city: New Madrid)
• Nodaway (Largest city: Maryville)
• Pemiscot (Largest city: Caruthersville)
• Pettis (largest city: Sedalia)
• Pike (Largest city: Bowling Green)
• Platte (largest city: Kansas City)
• Ray (Largest city: Richmond)
• Reynolds (Largest city: Ellington)
• Saline (Largest city: Marshall)
• Scott (Largest city: Sikeston)
• Shannon (Largest city: Winona)
• St. Charles (largest city: O'Fallon)
• St. Francois (Largest city: Farmington)
• Ste. Genevieve (largest city: Ste. Genevieve)
• Washington (Largest city: Potosi)
• Wayne (Largest city: Piedmont)

By congressional district

Greitens won 6 of 8 congressional districts.^[53]

District	Koster	Greitens	Representative
		82%	16%		Lacy Clay
		47%	51%		Ann Wagner
		40%	57%		Blaine Luetkemeyer
		39%	57%		Vicky Hartzler
		60%	37%		Emanuel Cleaver
		40%	57%		Sam Graves
		32%	65%		Billy Long
		32%	65%		Jason Smith

Campaign finance investigations

On April 28, 2017, the Missouri Ethics Commission fined Greitens' campaign $1,000 for violating state campaign ethics rules regarding campaign disclosure. Greitens did not contest the fine.^[54]

In 2018, Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley announced the opening of an investigation of Greitens' 2016 campaign financing.^[55]

On June 1, 2018, Eric Greitens resigned from office, leaving Mike Parson, his lieutenant governor, to succeed him.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Chris Koster (D) for Governor
• Eric Greitens (R) for Governor
• Les Turilli, Jr. (I) for Governor

Notes and References

1. News: Bill McClellan. Bill McClellan: Jay Nixon could make presidential bid in 2016. March 3, 2013. St. Louis Post-Dispatch. October 5, 2012.
2. Web site: Held. Kevin S.. Koster wins Democratic gubernatorial primary. KTVI. August 2, 2016. August 2, 2016.
3. Web site: Lieb. David A.. Ballentine. Summer. Ex-Navy SEAL Eric Greitens wins Missouri governor primary. WRCB. August 2, 2016. August 2, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160804213247/http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/32602092/ex-navy-seal-eric-greitens-wins-missouri-governor-primary. August 4, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
4. Web site: Eric Greitens declares victory in Missouri gubernatorial race. 9 November 2016.
5. Web site: Associated Press. State News: Mo. Attorney General Koster prepares to run for governor. seMissourian.com. April 10, 2013. October 14, 2014. August 3, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160803104147/http://www.semissourian.com/story/1957857.html. dead.
6. Web site: Chris Koster for Missouri governor? - St. Louis Business Journal . Bizjournals.com . 2013-04-10 . 2013-08-20.
7. News: Jo Mannies. Early Missouri governor's race new political normal. The Kansas City Star. February 16, 2014. May 21, 2014.
8. Web site: Republican race for Mo. governor heats up with new ads. KY3. June 7, 2016. June 15, 2016. Emily. Wood.
9. News: Steinman running for governor instead of president. Jefferson City News Tribune. Watson. Bob. February 24, 2016. March 2, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160301134459/http://www.newstribune.com/news/2016/feb/24/steinman-running-governor-instead-president/. March 1, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
10. News: Here comes Charlie Wheeler. The Kansas City Star. Kraske. Steve. February 29, 2016. March 2, 2016.
11. Web site: Kansas City Star. Steve Kraske: Claire McCaskill flirts with a run for Missouri governor . kansascity.com . August 28, 2014 . September 1, 2014.
12. Web site: Claire McCaskill will not run for governor in 2016. PoliticMo. January 12, 2015. January 12, 2015. Yokley. Eli.
13. Web site: Zweifel decides against 2016 bid for governor . St. Louis Beacon . April 9, 2013 . August 20, 2013 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130720014459/http://stlbeacon.org/ . July 20, 2013 .
14. News: 2016 Outlook . The Missouri Times . October 20, 2014 . November 16, 2014.
15. News: Former Navy SEAL Greitens running as Republican for Missouri governor. The Kansas City Star. Scher Zagier. Alan. Ballentine. Summer. September 26, 2015. September 28, 2015.
16. News: Republican Hanaway to run for Mo. governor in 2016. ksdk.com. February 11, 2014. February 12, 2014.
17. News: Peter Kinder will seek Missouri governor's office in 2016. St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Pistor. Nicholas J.C.. July 12, 2015. July 12, 2015.
18. News: Schweich weighing running for Missouri governor. The Kansas City Star. Lieb. David A.. November 20, 2014. November 22, 2014.
19. News: Missouri Auditor Tom Schweich to run for governor, setting up Republican primary in 2016. Daily Journal. January 28, 2015. January 29, 2015. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20150130183117/http://www.dailyjournal.net/view/story/92a4bf1043c64548974604056db0cd05/MO--Missouri-Governor-Schweich/. January 30, 2015.
20. Web site: Joe Millitzer. Missouri Auditor Schweich dies after self-inflicted gunshot wound. KTVI Fox 2 Now. February 26, 2015.
21. News: Asbury out, Greitens, Brunner appear ready to proceed in Missouri governor's race. Missourinet News. Lear. Mike. September 25, 2015. September 28, 2015.
22. News: Asbury joins Republican race for governor in 2016. Missourinet News. Lear. Mike. February 16, 2015. February 20, 2015.
23. News: Bob Dixon announces run for Republican nomination for Missouri governor. KWMU. Griffin. Marshall. July 20, 2015. August 12, 2015.
24. News: Dixon ends bid for GOP governor's nomination. The Missouri Times. Zimpfer. Travis. November 23, 2015. November 23, 2015.
25. News: Republican Mike Parson adds his name to race for Missouri governor. St. Louis Post-Dispatch. McDermott. Kevin. April 30, 2015. May 10, 2015.
26. News: Sen. Mike Parson switches race to lieutenant governor. Springfield News-Leader. Swedien. Jon. July 27, 2015. August 12, 2015.
27. News: 'It could get bloody' — Experts forecast 2016 Missouri election . Springfield News-Leader . November 9, 2014 . November 12, 2014.
28. News: Tim Jones Won't Seek Statewide Office In 2016 . St. Louis Public Radio . November 6, 2014 . November 12, 2014.
29. News: Missouri House speaker won't seek office in 2016 . https://archive.today/20141112132012/http://www.thestate.com/2014/11/06/3795073_missouri-house-speaker-wont-seek.html . dead . November 12, 2014 . The State . November 6, 2014 . November 12, 2014 .
30. News: Tim Jones: will not run for statewide office in 2016 . MissouriNet . November 6, 2014 . November 12, 2014.
31. News: Is Bart Korman running for governor?. The Missouri Times. Wingo. Kelsey. January 13, 2015. January 28, 2015.
32. News: Gov. Korman? State Rep's interest in state's top position done as tribute. The Warren County Record. Schmidt. Tim. January 17, 2015. April 11, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20170602120039/http://www.warrencountyrecord.com/local_news/article_24921b6c-9cdf-11e4-99d8-fb374d10196d.html. June 2, 2017. dead.
33. News: Giacomo Bologna. Show Me Nothing: Missouri Members Entrenched. Roll Call. October 2, 2013. October 3, 2013.
34. News: Jo Mannies. Luetkemeyer Getting Strong Encouragement To Jump Into GOP 2016 Field For Governor. St. Louis Public Radio. May 19, 2014. May 21, 2014.
35. News: Luetkemeyer downplays run for Missouri governor in 2016. Missourinet News. Lear. Mike. January 31, 2015. February 10, 2015.
36. News: Is Rep. Luetkemeyer still looking at MO gov? "No," he says. Twitter. Mannies. Jo. February 20, 2015. February 21, 2015.
37. News: Richard: No 2016 run for governor; will back Kinder for governor in 2012 . St. Louis Beacon . February 27, 2010 . November 16, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130720014459/http://stlbeacon.org/ . July 20, 2013 .
38. News: Apparently no re-run for former Missouri gubernatorial nominee Dave Spence. St. Louis Post-Dispatch. McDermott. Kevin. April 10, 2015. April 11, 2015.
39. News: As Republicans face split, Roy Blunt steers clear of John Hancock saga. PoliticMo. Yokley. Eli. March 21, 2015. March 24, 2015.
40. Web site: Don Fitz- Candidate for Governor of Missouri. Missouri Green Party. September 1, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160911005837/http://missourigreenparty.org/donfitz/. September 11, 2016. dead.
41. Web site: Kander Certifies Green Party for November Ballot. Missouri Secretary of State. September 1, 2016.
42. News: UPDATED: Businessman to run as independent for Missouri governor. Columbia Missourian. January 13, 2015. March 5, 2015.
43. Web site: Cisse Spragins Wins Nomination For Governor. Libertarian Party of Missouri. August 11, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160814023140/http://lpmo.org/news/Cisse-Spragins-Wins-Nomination-Governor. August 14, 2016. dead.
44. Web site: 2016 Governor Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 15, 2018.
45. Web site: Elections 2015-16 . Daily Kos . October 15, 2018 .
46. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 15, 2018.
47. Web site: Our Final 2016 picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015114619/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/ . dead .
48. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . October 15, 2018.
49. Web site: Ratings Roundup: 2016 Statewide Elections. November 4, 2016 . Governing Magazine. April 23, 2021.
50. Cisse Spragins (L) 3%, Lester Turilli (I) 2%
51. Cisse Spragins (L) 2%, Lester Turilli (I) 2%
52. Cisse Spragins (L) 2%, Lester Turilli (I) 1%
53. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting.
54. News: In latest secrecy issue, Gov. Greitens is fined by state for undisclosed donor list. McDermott. Kevin. stltoday.com. May 7, 2017.
55. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/23/mccaskill-missouri-greitens-republicans-senate-545393 ELECTIONS ‘She’s a lucky duck’: GOP implodes again for McCaskill