2016 Missouri Republican presidential primary explained

Election Name:2016 Missouri Republican presidential primary
Country:Missouri
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 Missouri Republican presidential primary
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 Missouri Republican presidential primary
Next Year:2020
Image1:Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:Donald Trump
Home State1:New York
Color1:283681
Delegate Count1:37
Popular Vote1:383,631
Percentage1:40.84%
Candidate2:Ted Cruz
Home State2:Texas
Color2:DAA520
Popular Vote2:381,666
Percentage2:40.63%
Delegate Count2:15
Image4:John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg
Candidate4:John Kasich
Home State4:Ohio
Color4:00B487
Popular Vote4:94,857
Percentage4:10.10%
Delegate Count4:0
Image5:Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg
Candidate5:Marco Rubio
Home State5:Florida
Color5:C60E3B
Popular Vote5:57,244
Percentage5:6.09%
Delegate Count5:0
Map Size:300px

The 2016 Missouri Republican presidential primary took place March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri, as a part of the Republican Party's series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 United States presidential election. The Missouri primary was held alongside Republican primary elections in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, along with the Democratic contest in Missouri.The hotly contested primary was won by businessman Donald Trump by a margin of 0.21% over Texas Senator Ted Cruz.

Background

In the 2012 primaries, the state of Missouri held two separate contests, a "beauty contest" primary on February 7 and caucuses beginning on March 15. Missouri Governor Jay Nixon signed SB892 in 2014 to move the state's presidential primary contest to March.[1] In addition, the caucus was removed so the primary counted for delegates. According to Missouri Republican Party chair John Hancock, the move was to encourage candidates to campaign in all parts of the state and to avoid the chaotic convention fights in the 2012 campaign.[2]

The state of the campaign

Previous contests

Despite an early victory by Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump was seen as making steady progress towards the Republican nomination at the time. Trump was victorious in 7 of the contests on March 1, with Cruz seen as the only viable threat to Trump after victories in his home state of Texas and three other March 1 contests. Marco Rubio performed worse than anticipated on March 1, taking only Minnesota. On March 8, two primaries and a caucus were held in Hawaii, Michigan and Mississippi. Despite a poll from American Research Group that showed Kasich leading Trump in Michigan, Trump won all three contests.[3] [4]

Run-up to the election

Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary resultsMarch 15, 2016Donald Trump
40.84%
Ted Cruz
40.63%
John Kasich
10.10%
Marco Rubio 6.09%, Ben Carson 0.88%, Jeb Bush 0.36%, Mike Huckabee 0.23%, Rand Paul 0.19%, Chris Christie 0.18%, Rick Santorum 0.08%, Carly Fiorina 0.07%
Fort Hayes State University[5] Margin of error: ± 7%
Sample size: 208
March 3–10, 2016Donald Trump
36%
Ted Cruz
29%
Marco Rubio
9%
John Kasich 8%, Other 1%, Undecided 17%
Remington Research Group Margin of error: ± 2.6%
Sample size: 1,528
December 18–19, 2015Donald Trump
33%
Ted Cruz
23%
Marco Rubio
12%
Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Undecided 14%
Public Policy PollingMargin of error: 4.7%
Sample size: 440
August 7–8, 2015Donald Trump
23%
Ben Carson
11%
Jeb Bush
11%
Mike Huckabee 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, John Kasich 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else/Undecided 2%
While there was limited polling in Missouri prior to the primary contest, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump were projected to be the main contenders, with Trump considered to be the favorite. Missouri was considered an important state due to its "winner-take-most" nature, which could allow Trump to accrue a large net gain of delegates with a small change in the popular vote.[6]

Results

Following the March 15 contests, Marco Rubio suspended his campaign, largely due to a poor performance in Florida.[7]

Possible recount

Missouri elections law allows the second-place candidate to request a recount if they are defeated in the election by less than one half of a percent.[8] Speculation arose that Cruz would ask for a recount, as he lost the primary by less than 2,000 votes, or 0.21 percent.[9] However, Cruz decided not to request a recount of the election, thus conceding the primary to Trump.[10] The recount was considered important because 12 of the 52 delegates to the Republican National Convention were awarded winner-take-all to the winner of the state.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: SB 892 Changes the presidential primary election date from February to March. 1 August 2016.
  2. Web site: Missouri Republicans announce delegate allocation process for 2016. The Kansas City Star. 1 August 2016.
  3. Web site: Michigan Republican Presidential Primary. American Research Group. 2016-06-23.
  4. Web site: Trump wins in Hawaii, Mississippi and Michigan. Washington Post. 2016-06-23.
  5. Web site: Missouri Poll Results . Fort Hayes State University. 12 March 2016.
  6. Web site: Wasserman. David. Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable. FiveThirtyEight. 2 August 2016.
  7. Web site: Rubio suspends presidential campaign. POLITICO. 2016-06-23.
  8. Web site: Section 115.601.1. Missouri Revised Statutes. Missouri Legislature. 3 August 2016. 6 August 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160806224832/http://www.moga.mo.gov/mostatutes/stathtml/11500006011.html. dead.
  9. Web site: Recount Could Be Possible for Missouri Republican Primary After Results Are Certified. KOAMTV.
  10. News: Lieb. David. Cruz Won't Seek Recount of Missouri Primary Loss to Trump. 3 August 2016. Bloomberg. 19 April 2016.