| Election Name: | 2016 Manitoba general election |
| Country: | Manitoba |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Party Colour: | no |
| Party Name: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Manitoba general election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Manitoba general election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | 57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba |
| Majority Seats: | 29 |
| Turnout: | 57.43% |
| Leader Since1: | July 30, 2012 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Fort Whyte |
| Seats Before1: | 19 |
| Seats1: | 40 |
| Seat Change1: | 21 |
| Popular Vote1: | 232,215 |
| Percentage1: | 53.10% |
| Swing1: | 9.39% |
| Leader2: | Greg Selinger |
| Leader Since2: | October 17, 2009 |
| Leaders Seat2: | St. Boniface |
| Last Election2: | 37 seats, 46.16% |
| Seats Before2: | 35 |
| Seats2: | 14 |
| Seat Change2: | 21 |
| Popular Vote2: | 112,748 |
| Percentage2: | 25.78% |
| Swing2: | 20.38% |
| Leader4: | Rana Bokhari |
| Leader Since4: | October 26, 2013 |
| Leaders Seat4: | ran in Fort Rouge (lost) |
| Last Election4: | 1 seat, 7.52% |
| Seats Before4: | 1 |
| Seats4: | 3 |
| Seat Change4: | 2 |
| Popular Vote4: | 62,973 |
| Percentage4: | 14.40% |
| Swing4: | 6.88% |
| Leader5: | James Beddome |
| Leader Since5: | November 15, 2014 |
| Leaders Seat5: | ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost) |
| Last Election5: | 0 seats, 2.52% |
| Seats Before5: | 0 |
| Seats5: | 0 |
| Popular Vote5: | 22,188 |
| Percentage5: | 5.07% |
| Swing5: | 2.62% |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| Premier | |
| Before Election: | Greg Selinger |
| Posttitle: | Premier after election |
| After Election: | Brian Pallister |
The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016, to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada.[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Progressive Conservatives won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.[2]
The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.
Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.[3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.[4] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.[5] The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.[6]
The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting;[7] in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate.[8] Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent.[8]
The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate.[7] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.[9]
The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.
|- !rowspan="2" colspan="2"|Party!rowspan="2"|Leader!rowspan="2"|
Candidates!colspan="4"|Seats!colspan="3"|Popular vote|-!2011!Dissol.!2016!+/-!Votes!%!% change|align=left|Brian Pallister|57 ||19 |||19 || 40|| +21||232,215 ||53.10 ||+9.39|align=left|Greg Selinger|57 ||37 ||35 || 14|| -21||112,748 ||25.78 ||−20.38|align=left|Rana Bokhari|51 ||1 ||1 || 3|| +2||62,973 ||14.40 ||+6.88|align=left|James Beddome|30 || - || - || - || - ||22,188 ||5.07 ||+2.55|-|align=left|Gary Marshall|16 || - || - || - || - ||4,887 ||1.12 ||n/a|-|align=left|Darrell Rankin|6 || - || - || - || - ||305 ||0.07 ||+0.03| colspan="2" style="text-align:left;"|Independents|4 || - || - || - || - ||2,032 ||0.46 ||+0.41| colspan="4" style="text-align:left;"|Vacant|2| colspan="5" ||-| style="text-align:left;" colspan="3"|Total|221 ||57 ||57 ||57 || ||437,348 || |||}| Party | 2011 | Gain from (loss to) | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align="center" | NDP | align="center" | PC | align="center" | Lib | ||
| 37 | (21) | (2) | 14 | ||||
| 19 | 21 | 40 | |||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||||
| Total | 57 | 23 | (21) | (2) | 57 | ||
| Party | Candidates | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 40 | 11 | 6 | - | - | ||
| 57 | 14 | 28 | 12 | 3 | - | ||
| 51 | 3 | 11 | 31 | 6 | - | ||
| 30 | - | 4 | 5 | 20 | 1 | ||
| 16 | - | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | ||
| 4 | - | 1 | - | 3 | - | ||
| Party in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align="center" | PC | align="center" | NDP | align="center" | Lib | align="center" | Grn | align="center" | MB | align="center" | Ind |
| - | 26 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 40 | |||||
| 10 | - | 3 | 1 | - | 14 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | - | - | - | - | 3 | |||||
| Total | 11 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 57 | ||||
| Parties | Seats | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | |||
| 9 | |||
| 3 | |||
| 2 | |||
| 1 | |||
| 5 | |||
| 1 | |||
| Total | 57 | ||
| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insights West | [16] | 28 | 53 | 10 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Insightrix Research | [17] | 22 | 49 | 19 | 9 | 1 | ||
| Forum Research | [18] | 21 | 52 | 18 | 9 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [19] | 26 | 55 | 11 | 9 | |||
| Insights West | [20] | 26 | 49 | 17 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Insightrix Research | [21] | 24 | 49 | 22 | 5 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [22] | 24 | 50 | 17 | 9 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [23] | 28 | 46 | 20 | 6 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [24] | 23 | 45 | 24 | 7 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [25] | 24 | 44 | 24 | 7 | |||
| Forum Research | [26] | 22 | 46 | 23 | 8 | 1 | ||
| Mainstreet Research | [27] | 27 | 43 | 24 | 7 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [28] | 21 | 50 | 23 | 6 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [29] | 21 | 51 | 20 | 7 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [30] | 20 | 52 | 20 | 9 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [31] | 23 | 44 | 27 | 6 | |||
| Insightrix Research | [32] | 19 | 39 | 36 | 5 | 1 | ||
| Probe Research Inc | [33] | 22 | 43 | 29 | 6 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [34] | 25 | 45 | 24 | 5 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [35] | 29 | 46 | 19 | 5 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [36] | 29 | 44 | 20 | 7 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | HTML | 26 | 48 | 19 | 7 | |||
| Mainstreet Research | [37] | 27 | 53 | 20 | ||||
| Probe Research Inc | [38] | 30 | 42 | 20 | 8 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | HTML | 32 | 45 | 16 | 7 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [39] | 28 | 46 | 23 | 3 | |||
| Insightrix Research | [40] | 24 | 49 | 18 | 9 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [41] | 26 | 48 | 20 | 6 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [42] | 29 | 43 | 20 | 8 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [43] | 28 | 46 | 17 | 10 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [44] | 35 | 42 | 15 | 8 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | 39 | 43 | 11 | 7 | ||||
| Probe Research Inc | [45] | 45 | 38 | 11 | 6 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [46] | 44 | 40 | 13 | 3 | |||
| Probe Research Inc | [47] | 40 | 45 | 10 | 5 | |||
| 2011 election | 46.2 | 43.7 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.1 | |||
| Polling firm | Last date of polling | Link | Other | |||||
| NDP | PC | Liberal | Green | |||||
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Flin Flon|||Tom Lindsey
1,106||Angela Enright
954||Leslie Beck
948||||Clarence Pettersen (Ind.)
359|||Clarence Pettersen|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Kewatinook||Eric Robinson
1,207||Edna Nabess
375|||Judy Klassen
1,565|||||||Eric Robinson|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Swan River||Ron Kostyshyn
2,408|||Rick Wowchuk
4,081||Shayne Lynxleg
483||Dan Soprovich
296|||||Ron Kostyshyn|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|The Pas|||Amanda Lathlin
1,976||Doug Lauvstad
1,765||Tyler Duncan
586||Patrick Wood
217|||||Amanda Lathlin|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Thompson||Steve Ashton
1,527|||Kelly Bindle
1,712||Inez Vystrcil-Spence
638|||||||Steve Ashton|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Agassiz||Courtney Lucas
450|||Eileen Clarke
5,228||||Robert Smith
409||Damian Dempsey (Ind.)
910|||Stu Briese|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Arthur-Virden||Lorne Topolniski
600|||Doyle Piwniuk
6,006||||||Frank Godon (Manitoba)
846|||Doyle Piwniuk|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Brandon East||Drew Caldwell
2,534|||Len Isleifson
3,669||Vanessa Hamilton
830|||||||Drew Caldwell|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Brandon West||Linda Ross
1,884|||Reg Helwer
5,624||William Moore
631|||||||Reg Helwer|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Dauphin||Darcy Scheller
1,899|||Brad Michaleski
4,795||Garry Gurke
505||Kate Storey
595||Darrell Inkster (Manitoba)
168|||Stan Struthers|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Riding Mountain||Béla Gyarmati
601|||Greg Nesbitt
5,311||Jordan Fleury
1,028||Mark Olenick
779|||||Leanne Rowat|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Spruce Woods||Amanda Chmelyk
665|||Cliff Cullen
5,210||Jaron Hart
512||||Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba)
738|||Cliff Cullen|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Emerson||Alanna Jones
432|||Cliff Graydon
4,943||Loren Braul
1,423|||||||Cliff Graydon|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Gimli||Armand Bélanger
2,579|||Jeff Wharton
5,614||||Dwight Harfield
843||Ed Paquette (Manitoba)
239|||vacant|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Interlake||Tom Nevakshonoff
1,428|||Derek Johnson
3,685||Jamal Abas
2,068|||||||Tom Nevakshonoff|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Lakeside||Matt Austman
1,369|||Ralph Eichler
6,077|||||||||Ralph Eichler|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Midland||Jacqueline Theroux
714|||Blaine Pedersen
6,168||Julia Sisler
523||Stacey O’Neill
797|||||Blaine Pedersen|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Morden-Winkler||Elizabeth Lynch
215|||Cameron Friesen
6,598||Benjamin Bawdon
279||Mike Urichuk
667|||||Cameron Friesen|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Morris||Mohamed Alli
840|||Shannon Martin
6,980||John Falk
1,430|||||||Shannon Martin|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Portage la Prairie||Alex MacDonald
697|||Ian Wishart
4,635||Stephen Prince
1,238|||||||Ian Wishart|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"| Dawson Trail||Roxane Dupuis
1,678|||Bob Lagassé
4,430||Terry Hayward
1,652||||David Sutherland (Manitoba)
516|||Ron Lemieux|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Lac du Bonnet||Wendy Sol
1,647|||Wayne Ewasko
5,666|||||||||Wayne Ewasko|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|La Verendrye||Echo Asher
705|||Dennis Smook
5,262||Bill Paulishyn
696||Janine Gibson
724|||||Dennis Smook|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Steinbach||Kathleen McCallum
387|||Kelvin Goertzen
6,982||Dakota Young-Brown
461|||||||Kelvin Goertzen|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"| St. Paul||Andrew Podolecki
1,757|||Ron Schuler
7,091||Pete Sanderson
1,055|||||||Ron Schuler|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Selkirk||Greg Dewar
2,366|||Alan Lagimodiere
4,686||Stefan Jones
1,390|||||||Greg Dewar|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Burrows||Melanie Wight
1,775||Rae Wagner
1,014|||Cindy Lamoureux
2,641||Garrett Bodnaryk
216||Tony Petrowski (Communist)
28|||Melanie Wight|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Kildonan||Dave Chomiak
3,065|||Nic Curry
3,694||Navdeep Khangura
974||Steven Stairs
456||Gary Marshall (Manitoba)
133|||Dave Chomiak|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Point Douglas|||Kevin Chief
2,839||Marsha Street
811||Althea Guiboche
956||Alberteen Spence
247||Frank Komarniski (Communist)
58|||Kevin Chief|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|St. Johns|||Nahanni Fontaine
2,358||Barbara Judt
1,869||Noel Bernier
1,465||Elizabeth Puchailo
671|||||Gord Mackintosh|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|The Maples|||Mohinder Saran
2,832||Kaur Sidhu
2,705||Harbans Singh Brar
1,695||John Redekopp
582|||||Mohinder Saran|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Tyndall Park|||Ted Marcelino
2,139||Naseer Warraich
1,306||Aida Champagne
1,656||Shane Neustaeter
391|
||||Ted Marcelino|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Concordia|||Matt Wiebe
2,761||Andrew Frank
2,483||Donovan Martin
642||||Terry Scott (Manitoba)
254|||Matt Wiebe|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Elmwood|||Jim Maloway
2,993||Sarah Langevin
2,886||||||Albert Ratt (Manitoba)
579|||Jim Maloway|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Radisson||Preet Singh
2,945|||James Teitsma
4,635||Scott Newman
1,593|||||||Bidhu Jha|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|River East||Jody Gillis
2,435|||Cathy Cox
6,154||Piero Scaramuzzi
776|||||||Bonnie Mitchelson|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Rossmere||Erna Braun
3,389|||Andrew Micklefield
5,303||Malli Aulakh
838||||William Sullivan (Manitoba)
427|||Erna Braun|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|St. Boniface|||Greg Selinger
3,624||Mamadou Ka
2,211||Alain Landry
1,663||Signe Knutson
1,048|||||Greg Selinger|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Transcona||Barb Burkowski
2,281|||Blair Yakimoski
3,948||Chad Panting
1,465||||Darrell Rankin (Communist)
68
Ajit Kumar (Manitoba)
233|||Daryl Reid|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Assiniboia||Joseph McKellep
2,196|||Steven Fletcher
3,450||Ian McCausland
1,631||Ileana Ohlsson
580|||||Jim Rondeau|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Charleswood||Janna Barkman
1,168|||Myrna Driedger
5,298||Paul Brault
1,187||Kevin Nichols
1,080|||||Myrna Driedger|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Kirkfield Park||Sharon Blady
3,075|||Scott Fielding
5,457||Kelly Nord
889||Lisa Omand
784|||||Sharon Blady|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|St. James||Deanne Crothers
2,723|||Scott Johnston
3,532||Michelle Finley
1,150||Jeff Buhse
850||Brad Gross (Manitoba)
137|||Deanne Crothers|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Tuxedo||Zach Fleisher
1,312|||Heather Stefanson
4,986||Michael Lazar
1,251||Bob Krul
976|||||Heather Stefanson|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Fort Garry-Riverview|||James Allum
3,450||Jeannette Montufar
3,149||Johanna Wood
807||James Beddome
1,711|||||James Allum|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Fort Rouge|||Wab Kinew
3,360||Audrey Gordon
2,751||Rana Bokhari
1,792||Grant Sharp
983||Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba)
175
Paula Ducharme (Communist)
47|||Jennifer Howard|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Logan|||Flor Marcelino
2,020||Allie Szarkiewicz
997||Peter Koroma
1,457||Jitendradas Loves-Life
397||Joe Chan (Manitoba)
185
Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist)
63|||Flor Marcelino|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Minto|||Andrew Swan
2,954||Belinda Squance
1,016||Demetre Balaktsis
723||Martha Jo Willard
410||Andrew Taylor (Communist)
41
Virgil Gil (Manitoba)
51
Don Woodstock (Ind)
589|||Andrew Swan|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|River Heights||Shafagh Daneshfar
591||Tracey Maconachie
3,485|||Jon Gerrard
5,230||Michael Cardillo
771|||||Jon Gerrard|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Wolseley|||Rob Altemeyer
3,037||Raquel Dancho
945||Shandi Strong
653||David Nickarz
2,645||Wayne Sturby (Manitoba)
79|||Rob Altemeyer|}
|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Fort Richmond||Kerri Irvin-Ross
2,274|||Sarah Guillemard
2,879||Kyra Wilson
814||Cameron Proulx
540|||||Kerri Irvin-Ross|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Fort Whyte||George Wong
1,718|||Brian Pallister
6,775||Peter Bastians
1,205||Carli Runions
731||Daryl Newis (Manitoba)
127|||Brian Pallister|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Riel||Christine Melnick
3,053|||Rochelle Squires
5,024||Neil Johnston
1,627|||||||Christine Melnick|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Seine River||Lise Pinkos
2,343|||Janice Morley-Lecomte
5,396||Peter Chura
2,388|||||||Theresa Oswald|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|Southdale||Dashi Zargani
2,460|||Andrew Smith
6,663||Ryan Colyer
1,318|||||||vacant|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|St. Norbert||Dave Gaudreau
3,062|||Jon Reyes
4,673||James Bloomfield
1,251||||Narinder Kaur Johar
174|||Dave Gaudreau|-| style="background:whitesmoke;"|St. Vital||Jamie Moses
2,831|||Colleen Mayer
3,229||Bryan Van Wilgenburg
1,296||Kelly Whelan-Enns
791|||||Nancy Allan