2016 Indiana gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2016 Indiana gubernatorial election
Country:Indiana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 Indiana gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 Indiana gubernatorial election
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:File:Holcomb Official Headshot (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Eric Holcomb
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Suzanne Crouch
Popular Vote1:1,397,396
Percentage1:51.38%
Nominee2:John R. Gregg
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Christina Hale
Popular Vote2:1,235,503
Percentage2:45.42%
Map Size:250px
Governor
Before Election:Mike Pence
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Eric Holcomb
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 Indiana gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 3, 2016. Republican lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb won the race with 51.4% of the vote.

Incumbent Republican governor Mike Pence was running for reelection to a second term in office until July 15, 2016, when then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump selected Pence as his vice presidential running mate.[1] As Pence was barred by Indiana law from simultaneously running for both offices, he subsequently withdrew from the gubernatorial election.[2] Pence went on to be elected Vice President of the United States. He was replaced on the ballot for governor by his former running mate, incumbent lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb, who was selected by the Indiana Republican State Committee as the nominee on July 26, 2016.[3] Holcomb later selected State Auditor Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was confirmed at a subsequent meeting of the Indiana Republican State Committee later that day.[3]

John Gregg, the former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, was the Democratic nominee. Gregg previously ran for Governor in 2012, but was defeated by Pence.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Republican State Committee selection

On July 15, 2016, Donald Trump announced that Pence would be his running mate as vice president in the 2016 presidential election. Under Indiana law, Pence was unable to run for both governor and vice president simultaneously; he therefore withdrew from the gubernatorial election, creating a vacancy on the Republican ticket. On July 26, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, Jeff Cardwell, announced that Eric Holcomb had been nominated by the Indiana Republican State Committee to replace Pence on the ballot for governor. The vote totals were not released. Holcomb later selected Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was then confirmed by the Committee at a meeting later that day.[3] [8]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Libertarian Party convention

Candidates

Declared

Nominated

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[24] August 12, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[25] November 8, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[26] November 3, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] November 7, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[28] November 1, 2016
align=left Governing[29] October 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Eric
Holcomb (R)
John
Gregg (D)
Rex
Bell (L)
Undecided
SurveyMonkeyNovember 1–7, 20161,700± 4.6%47% align=center49%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 31 – November 6, 20161,383± 4.6%46% align=center49%5%
WTHR/HoweyNovember 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%42%42%5%11%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 28 – November 3, 2016923± 4.6%47%47%6%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 27 – November 2, 2016790± 4.6% align=center48%47%5%
Gravis MarketingOctober 30 – November 1, 2016399± 4.9%38% align=center42%4%16%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 26 – November 1, 2016638± 4.6% align=center49%47%4%
SurveyMonkeyOctober 25–31, 2016674± 4.6%47% align=center48%5%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 27–30, 2016402± 4.9%42% align=center48%4%5%
Gravis MarketingOctober 22–24, 2016596± 2.3%38% align=center42%4%16%
Ball State University (PSRAI)October 10–16, 2016544± 4.8%43% align=center48%
Monmouth UniversityOctober 11–13, 2016402± 4.9%38% align=center50%4%7%
BK Strategies (R-Holcomb)October 11–13, 2016800± 3.5%42%42%3%13%
WTHR/HoweyOctober 3–5, 2016600± 4.0%39% align=center41%5%15%
WTHR/Howey September 6–8, 2016600± 4.0%35% align=center40%6%19%
Monmouth UniversityAugust 13–16, 2016403± 4.9% align=center42%41%4%13%
Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg)August 1–3, 2016600± 4.0%39% align=center46%6%9%
The Tarrance GroupJuly 20–21, 2016503± 4.4%34% align=center42%24%
with Mike Pence
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Mike
Pence (R)
John
Gregg (D)
OtherUndecided
Bellwether ResearchMay 11–15, 2016600± 4.0% align=center40%36%24%
WTHR/HoweyApril 18–21, 2016500± 4.3% align=center49%45%1%5%
Bellwether ResearchMay 29–June 3, 2015800± 3.5%40% align=center41%19%
Bellwether ResearchApril 12–14, 2015607± 4.0% align=center43%37%21%
GQR ResearchApril 7–9, 2015500± 4.4%47%47%6%
with Susan Brooks
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
Susan
Brooks (R)
John
Gregg (D)
OtherUndecided
The Tarrance GroupJuly 20–21, 2016503± 4.4%36% align=center41%23%
with Todd Rokita
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Rokita (R)
John
Gregg (D)
OtherUndecided
The Tarrance GroupJuly 20–21, 2016503± 4.4%36% align=center41%23%
Public Opinion StrategiesJuly 16–18, 2016600± 4.0% align=center45%43%12%
with Baron Hill
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Mike
Pence (R)
Baron
Hill (D)
Undecided
Bellwether ResearchApril 12–14, 2015607± 4% align=center43%36%21%
with Glenda Ritz
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Mike
Pence (R)
Glenda
Ritz (D)
OtherUndecided
Bellwether ResearchMay 29–June 3, 2015800± 3.5%42%42%16%
Bellwether ResearchApril 12–14, 2015607± 4% align=center42%39%18%

Results

Holcomb won with 51.4% of the votes, with Gregg taking 45.4%, and Libertarian Rex Bell finishing with 3.2%.[30]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Holcomb won 7 of 9 congressional districts.[31]

DistrictHolcombGreggRepresentative
36%62%Pete Visclosky
53%43%Jackie Walorski
60%37%Marlin Stutzman
58%39%Todd Rokita
52%45%Susan Brooks
59%36%Luke Messer
34%63%André Carson
52%45%Larry Bucshon
56%41%Todd Young

External links

Official campaign websites (archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP. July 15, 2016.
  2. Web site: Mike Pence officially withdraws from Indiana governor's race . WDRB.com . July 15, 2016 . July 15, 2016 . November 10, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181110075857/http://www.wdrb.com/story/32454202/mike-pence-officially-withdraws-from-indiana-governors-race . dead .
  3. News: Indiana GOP panel nominates Eric Holcomb for governor. The Indianapolis Star. Eason. Brian. Tony. Cook. Briggs. James. July 26, 2016. July 26, 2016.
  4. Web site: Brooks to run for House reelection, not Senate. The Statehouse File. Weidenbener. Lesley. April 22, 2015. April 22, 2015.
  5. Web site: Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate. The Hill. Joseph. Cameron. March 24, 2015. March 24, 2015.
  6. Web site: If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?. kokomoperspective.com. Brian Howey. January 30, 2015. February 3, 2015.
  7. Web site: A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up. News and Tribune. Howey. Brian. May 26, 2015. June 4, 2015.
  8. Web site: Holcomb introduces Crouch as his running mate in governor's race. Fox 59. August 1, 2016. August 2, 2016.
  9. Web site: Holcomb, Rokita, Brooks in; Bosma out of race to be GOP gubernatorial nominee. Indiana Business Journal. July 15, 2016. July 15, 2016. July 16, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160716134631/http://www.ibj.com/articles/59509-holcomb-brooks-are-in-bosma-is-out-of-race-to-be-gop-gubernatorial-nominee. dead.
  10. News: Tomes says despite odds, "It's in my heart to run" for governor. Evansville Courier & Press. Osowski. Zach. July 19, 2016. July 19, 2016.
  11. Web site: Source: Democrat John Gregg set to announce governor bid. The Indianapolis Star. LoBianco. Tom. April 30, 2015. April 30, 2015.
  12. Web site: John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale as Running Mate | News - Indiana Public Media . May 25, 2016 . May 26, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160526112241/http://indianapublicmedia.org/news/john-gregg-announce-running-mate-today-99364/ . dead .
  13. Web site: Glenda Ritz drops out of governor's race. The Indianapolis Star. Cook. Tony. Schneider. Chelsea. August 7, 2015. August 7, 2015.
  14. Web site: Tallian drops out of governor's race. The Times of Northwest Indiana. Carden. Dan. August 17, 2015. August 17, 2015.
  15. Web site: Buttigieg: 'Zero interest' in governor's seat. South Bend Tribune. February 25, 2014. February 23, 2015. Blasko. Erin.
  16. News: Bayh not running for governor in 2016. nwi.com. September 13, 2014. October 26, 2014.
  17. Web site: Potential candidate for governor talks education, healthcare. WXIN. February 13, 2015. February 20, 2015. Spehler. Dan.
  18. Web site: Former Congressman Hill mulls run for governor. News and Tribune. December 3, 2014. December 3, 2014. Hayden. Maureen.
  19. Web site: Ousted Democrat Announces Indiana Senate Bid. Roll Call. May 15, 2015. May 15, 2015. Cahn. Emily. May 17, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150517061515/http://atr.rollcall.com/baron-hill-2016-indiana-senate-bid-democrat/. dead.
  20. Web site: Pelath rules out run for governor. The Times of Northwest Indiana. Carden. Dan. May 27, 2015. May 28, 2015.
  21. Web site: Long-time Bayh aide mulling run for governor. The Indianapolis Star. Schneider. Chelsea. August 7, 2015. August 7, 2015.
  22. Web site: Tom Sugar will not run for governor. The Indianapolis Star. Schneider. Chelsea. September 21, 2015. September 21, 2015.
  23. Web site: Libertarian Party of Indiana nominates Rex Bell for Governor. Greensburg Daily News. April 28, 2016. May 13, 2016. Staff.
  24. Web site: 2016 Governor Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 15, 2018.
  25. Web site: Elections 2015-16 . Daily Kos . October 15, 2018 .
  26. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 15, 2018.
  27. Web site: Our Final 2016 picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015114619/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/ . dead .
  28. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . October 15, 2018.
  29. Web site: 2016 Governors Races Ratings & News. Governing Magazine. October 28, 2016. October 27, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161027090343/http://www.governing.com/governor-races-2016. dead.
  30. http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/election/general/general2016?page=office&countyID=-1&officeID=37&districtID=-1&candidate= Indiana Secretary of State Election Results
  31. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-20 . Daves Redistricting.