2016 California Democratic presidential primary explained

Election Name:2016 California Democratic presidential primary
Country:California
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 California Democratic primary
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2020 California Democratic presidential primary
Next Year:2020
Candidate1:Hillary Clinton
Home State1:New York
Delegate Count1:254
Popular Vote1:2,745,302[1]
Percentage1:53.07%
Map Size:280x320px
Color1:d4aa00
Candidate2:Bernie Sanders
Color2:228B22
Home State2:Vermont
Popular Vote2:2,381,722
Percentage2:46.04%
Delegate Count2:221

The 2016 California Democratic presidential primary was held on June 7 in the U.S. state of California as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party's primaries in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states. Additionally, the Democratic Party held North Dakota caucuses the same day.

Opinion polling

Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
California Secretary of State Primary resultsJune 7, 2016Hillary Clinton
53.1%
Bernie Sanders
46.0%
Others
0.9%
CBS News/YouGov[2] Margin of error: ±5.0%
Sample size: 674
May 31-June 3, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided 4%
American Research Group[3] Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400
May 31 –
June 2, 2016
Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[4] Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 557
May 29–31, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided 4%
Field[5] Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 571
May 26–31, 2016Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided 12%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[6] Margin of error: ± 2.9%
Sample size: 1,500
May 19–31, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
13%
SurveyUSA[7] Margin of error: ±%
Sample size: 803
May 19–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Undecided 4%
PPIC[8] Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 552
May 13–22, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Undecided 10%
Hoover Institution State Poll[9] Margin of error: ±3.47%
Sample size: 1,700
May 4–16, 2016Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
11%
Sextant (D)/Capitol Weekly[10] Margin of error: ±2.3%
Sample size: 1,617
April 28-May 1, 2016Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG[11] Margin of error: ± %
Sample size: 826
April 27–30, 2016Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
6%
FOX News[12] Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 623
April 18–21, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS News/YouGov[13] Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 1,124
April 13–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Gravis Marketing[14] Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 846
April 7–10, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
Field[15] Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 584
March 24 - April 4, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA[16] Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 767
March 30 - April 3, 2016Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[17] Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 832
March 16–23, 2016Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
17%
PPIC[18] Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 529
March 6–15, 2016Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Field Poll[19] Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample Size: 329
January 6, 2016Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Undecided 18%
Poll sourceDate1st2ndOther
Field Poll[20] Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 391
September 17 – October 4, 2015Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 14%
Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Joe Biden 15%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 12%
USC/LA Times[21] Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: ?
August 29 – September 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
42%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Other/NA 16%
Undecided 16%
Hillary Clinton
39%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden 11%
Other/NA 11%
Undecided 16%
Field Poll[22] Margin of error: ± 7.0%
Sample size: 356
April 23 – May 16, 2015Hillary Clinton
53%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden 6%
Bernie Sanders 5%
Jim Webb 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Undecided/other 22%
Emerson College[23] Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 487
April 2–8, 2015Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Joe Biden 8%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Andrew Cuomo 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 17%
Field Poll [24] Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 425
January 26 – February 16, 2015Hillary Clinton
59%
Elizabeth Warren
17%
Joe Biden 9%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 2%
Others <0.5%
Undecided 7%

Results

See also: Results of the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016.

Sanders won eight Congressional districts, including the Latino-heavy 34th district in Los Angeles, represented by Clinton supporter Rep. Xavier Becerra. In the 28th district the candidates were separated by just 67 votes, which covers the Los Angeles suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, and is represented by Rep. Adam Schiff.[25]

Results by county

County[26] Clinton%Sanders%Others%TotalsTurnout (%)Margin%
164,88951.5%153,95548.0%1,5770.5%320,42110,9343.4%
Alpine 11344.8%13754.4%20.8%25224-9.5%
Amador 2,51650.4%2,38647.8%881.8%4,9901302.6%
11,76637.0%19,73962.0%3151.0%31,8207,973-25.1%
2,97149.5%2,91448.5%1232.0%6,008570.9%
83549.3%80947.8%482.8%1,692261.5%
Contra Costa103,33356.7%77,86242.7%1,0820.6%182,27725,47114.0%
1,11940.4%1,59857.6%552.0%2,772479-17.3%
12,49249.1%12,62049.6%3131.2%25,425128-0.5%
45,43656.0%34,66342.7%9981.2%81,09710,77313.3%
91146.8%1,00351.5%341.7%1,94892-4.7%
8,13528.7%19,92870.4%2400.8%28,30311,793-41.7%
9,84365.0%5,11133.7%1901.3%15,1444,73231.2%
1,00142.5%1,31355.7%441.9%2,358312-13.2%
Kern 28,80654.1%23,37443.9%1,0542.0%53,2345,43210.2%
4,15057.8%2,86939.9%1652.3%7,1841,28117.8%
3,98842.7%5,19555.7%1481.6%9,3311,207-12.9%
Lassen 81242.6%1,02353.7%703.7%1,905211-11.1%
780,01354.4%639,88644.6%14,7681.0%1,434,667140,1279.8%
5,80853.1%4,85244.4%2792.6%10,9399568.7%
43,28356.4%33,21443.3%2600.3%76,75710,06913.1%
1,10244.1%1,35554.2%441.8%2,501253-10.1%
6,04832.8%12,25966.5%1190.6%18,4266,211-33.7%
Merced 10,83953.0%9,27345.3%3391.7%20,4511,5667.7%
28142.3%34952.5%355.3%66568-10.2%
79943.3%1,03856.2%100.5%1,847239-12.9%
29,73052.8%26,07346.3%5130.9%56,3163,6576.5%
13,58353.4%11,68245.9%1900.7%25,4551,9017.5%
Nevada 8,17536.9%13,82762.4%1480.7%22,1505,652-25.5%
171,59351.9%156,23547.3%2,7670.8%330,59515,3584.6%
25,24954.1%20,91644.8%4901.1%46,6554,3339.3%
1,21144.1%1,47553.7%622.3%2,748264-9.6%
112,52656.1%85,91842.8%2,1971.1%200,64126,60813.3%
109,89854.6%89,42844.4%1,9331.0%201,25920,47010.2%
4,11254.3%3,38044.6%831.1%7,5757329.7%
San Bernardino96,07654.6%77,70644.2%2,1941.2%175,97618,37010.4%
215,65551.6%199,71647.7%2,9090.7%418,28015,9393.8%
116,35953.6%99,59445.9%9610.4%216,91416,7657.7%
38,21256.5%28,52342.2%8791.3%67,6149,68914.3%
San Luis Obispo21,63746.7%24,37952.6%3460.7%46,3622,742-5.9%
79,75658.7%55,36740.8%7050.5%135,82824,38918.0%
Santa Barbara31,92746.9%35,71752.4%4740.7%68,1183,790-5.6%
159,48057.5%116,19341.9%1,8400.7%277,51343,28715.6%
29,52040.5%42,94059.0%3770.5%72,83713,420-18.4%
7,80945.4%9,02652.4%3772.2%17,2121,217-7.1%
Sierra 22442.5%29756.4%61.1%52773-13.9%
2,46638.0%3,89460.0%1261.9%6,4861,428-22.0%
34,23155.3%27,12243.8%5270.9%61,8807,10911.5%
55,59547.3%61,16752.0%8030.7%117,5655,572-4.7%
24,35951.2%22,38447.1%7981.7%47,5411,9754.2%
4,02352.7%3,46345.4%1461.9%7,6325607.3%
2,37245.9%2,65551.4%1362.6%5,163283-5.5%
67235.1%1,21163.3%311.6%1,914539-28.2%
13,47254.4%10,83443.7%4681.9%24,7742,63810.6%
3,43348.2%3,59250.5%911.3%7,116159-2.2%
60,61551.2%56,75147.9%1,0150.9%118,3813,8643.3%
17,65548.2%18,76151.3%1900.5%36,6061,106-3.0%
2,38845.1%2,77152.4%1322.5%5,291383-7.2%
Total 2,745,30253.1%2,381,72246.0% 46,3140.9%5,173,338363,5807.0%

Analysis

Clinton won the California primary, after Bernie Sanders had made a very serious play for the state and barnstormed it before election day. Sanders was significantly behind in the overall race by the time California voted (June 7, 2016), and it would have been hard for him to win the nomination by that point unless he persuaded Superdelegates to switch their support to him at the convention. He hoped a California win would assist in that effort. He rallied large numbers of supporters across the state, but in the end his barnstorming did not prevail, with Clinton winning by seven points (more than most polls predicted). She won in all the major cities: Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Los Angeles, and San Diego; Sanders did well in the northernmost counties bordering Oregon where he had won the month before.[27] After Sanders' disappointing loss, Rose Kapolczynski, an advisor to Barbara Boxer, described the primary results: "You can have a lot of excitement and a compelling message and inspire people, but if they don’t show up to vote, it doesn’t matter. Sanders did have very impressive rallies all over the state, but were those people turning around and calling their neighbors and taking action to get other people to vote for Sanders?"[28]

For her part, Clinton had campaigned aggressively for the state's diverse electorate, with Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, and Chinese-language ads being aired by her campaign on the airwaves and on TV to make a play for both Latino and Asian American voters.[29]

Clinton was declared the presumptive winner of the democratic nomination by multiple news outlets on June 6, the night before the California primary.[30] [31] [32] [33] She had previously not had enough delegates, and the declaration that she had clinched the nomination was based on a survey of superdelegates, not on votes. This announcement being made the night before a primary as large as California's was considered controversial, and may or may not have affected voter turnout the next day.[34]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: California Secretary of State - Semi-Official Primary Results. ca.gov. 2016-06-17. https://web.archive.org/web/20160608132046/http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/president/party/democratic/. 2016-06-08. dead.
  2. Web site: Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders down to the wire in California. www.cbsnews.com. 2016-06-07.
  3. Web site: California 2016 Primary Forecasts. 12 January 2016 . ARG. June 7, 2016.
  4. Web site: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire. scribd.com. June 1, 2016.
  5. Web site: California's Democratic Presidential Primary Tightening. Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Declines to Two Points. State Republicans Appear to Be Warming to Trump's Candidacy. June 2, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160602135514/http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article81253937.ece/BINARY/Rls2537. June 2, 2016. dead.
  6. Web site: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire. scribd.com. June 3, 2016.
  7. Web site: Hillary Clinton poised to defeat Bernie Sanders in California's presidential primary, SurveyUSA poll shows. ABC News. 23 May 2016.
  8. Web site: Californians and Their Government May 2016 Full Crosstabs – Likely Voters Only. PPIC Statewide Survey. 26 May 2016.
  9. Web site: Poll: Clinton up 13 over Sanders in Calif.. 31 May 2016 . May 31, 2016.
  10. Web site: Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary April 28-May 1, 2016. May 4, 2016.
  11. Web site: California voters resigned to vote for Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, SurveyUSA poll shows. May 2, 2016.
  12. Web site: Fox News Poll: California Presidential Primaries. Fox News. April 22, 2016. April 22, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160423033544/http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-california-presidential-primaries/. April 23, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
  13. Web site: Poll: Clinton keeps New York edge, leads Sanders in California. . 2016-04-17.
  14. Web site: California Democratic Primary Polling. 2016-04-20.
  15. Web site: Sanders gaining on Clinton in California poll. 2016-04-08.
  16. 2016-04-05. In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have 'Extremely Negative' View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer's Seat; CA's Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016. SurveyUSA. 2016-04-05.
  17. Web site: As California primary nears, even Sanders supporters are uniting behind Clinton and against a common enemy: Trump. . 28 March 2016 . 2016-03-29.
  18. Web site: Californians and Their Government - March 2016 Full Crosstabs - Likely Voters Only. 2016-03-24.
  19. Web site: Clinton Maintains 11-Point Lead Over Sanders Among Likely Voters in California's Democratic Presidential Primary. Both Candidates Are Highly Regarded. Field Research Corporation. 6 January 2016. Mark. DiCamillo. 22 January 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160116115312/http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2522.pdf. 16 January 2016. dead. dmy-all.
  20. Web site: Sanders gains on Clinton. sacbee.com. 2015-10-07. https://web.archive.org/web/20151010001954/http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article38041509.ece/BINARY/PDF:%20Field%20Poll%20results:%20Sanders%20gains%20on%20Clinton. 2015-10-10. dead.
  21. Web site: Trump and Clinton lead presidential contenders in California. news.usc.edu/. 2015-09-13.
  22. Web site: Field Poll Online. field.com. 2015-07-09. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20150528073519/http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2506.pdf. 2015-05-28.
  23. Web site: 2016 California Presidential Republican Primary – Bush 17%, Walker 17%. Emerson College. 22 January 2016. 7 November 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161107003038/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/emerson-college-polling-society-22014. dead.
  24. Web site: Archived copy . 2015-02-19 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20150220015800/http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2496.pdf . 2015-02-20 .
  25. News: Weigel. David. One month later, California finishes its vote count, and Clinton wins. en-US. Washington Post. 2021-01-23. 0190-8286.
  26. Web site: Presidential election results. Elections.
  27. News: California Primary Election Results. 2016-08-07.
  28. Web site: How Hillary Clinton won California. Times. Los Angeles. Los Angeles Times. 8 June 2016 . 2016-08-07.
  29. Web site: Hillary Clinton Campaign Launches New Asian American Ads. 2016-05-27. AAPI for Hillary. 2016-08-31. https://web.archive.org/web/20161011021729/https://aapiforhillary.com/2016/05/27/hillary-clinton-campaign-launches-new-asian-american-ads/. 2016-10-11. dead.
  30. Web site: AP count: Clinton has delegates to win Democratic nomination. ap.org. 2016-11-03. 2017-05-01. https://web.archive.org/web/20170501203536/http://bigstory.ap.org/article/4c9c850385c84b12ad5b85fda49743f9/after-weekend-wins-clinton-cusp-democratic-nomination. dead.
  31. Web site: Clinton clinches Democratic nomination. politico.com.
  32. Web site: Analysis - Hillary Clinton just clinched the Democratic nomination. Here's the math behind it.. Philip. Bump. 6 June 2016. www.washingtonpost.com.
  33. News: Hillary Clinton Has Clinched Democratic Nomination, Survey Reports. The New York Times . 6 June 2016. Chozick . Amy . Healy . Patrick .
  34. Web site: No one wanted Hillary Clinton to win this way. msnbc.com.