2016 Bolivian constitutional referendum explained

2016 Bolivian constitutional referendum
Country:Bolivia
Do you agree with the reform of Article 168 of the Political Constitution of the State so that the president and the vice president of the state can be re-elected twice continuously?
Date:21 February 2016
Yes:2546135
No:2682517
Total:5490919
Electorate:6502069
Map:2016 Bolivian referendum map.svg
Mapdivision:region

A constitutional referendum was held in Bolivia on Sunday, 21 February 2016. The proposed constitutional amendments would have allowed the president and vice president to run for a third consecutive term under the 2009 Constitution (which would be a fourth consecutive term, including their pre-2009 term).[1] The proposal was voted down by a 51.3% majority.[2]

Background

Article 168 of the 2009 constitution allows the President and Vice-President to put themselves forward for re-election only once, limiting the number of terms to two. The governing party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS) sponsored an effort to amend this article. The referendum was authorized by a combined session of the Plurinational Legislative Assembly on 26 September 2015, by a vote of 112 to 41.[3] [4] Law 757, which convenes the February referendum, was passed 113 to 43, and was promulgated on 5 November 2015.

Bolivian elections are conducted under an "act of good governance," which prohibits electoral propaganda in the days before an election, and tightly regulates motorized transport. It was illegal to buy or consume alcohol for 48 hours prior to the referendum to ensure voters took note of their decision.[1]

A successful 'yes' vote would have allowed President Evo Morales and Vice President Álvaro García Linera to run for a fourth term in office in 2019. Morales had already been elected three times. The first time, in 2006, is not counted as it was before the two term limit was introduced by the 2009 constitution.[5]

Disinformation campaigns

In the run-up to the referendum, opponents claimed that Morales had fathered an out-of-wedlock child[6] named "Ernesto Fidel Morales" after Ernesto "Che" Guevera and Fidel Castro.[7] The story was "mostly fake news."[8] There had been a relationship, but never a child, and the woman had borrowed a child from her aunt to present to the press in support of the false allegations.[8] Referendum supporters claim that the allegations hurt Morales in the polls.[9]

Opinion polls

PollsterDate of
publication		YesNoUndecided
IPSOS[10] 26 October 201549%39%11%
Mercados y Muestras[11] 5 December 201540%54%6%
IPSOS[12] 29 December 201545%50%5%
MORI[13] 11 January 201641%37%19%
IPSOS[14] [15] 13 January 201638%44%14%
Captura Consulting[16] 10 February 201644%41%15%
MORI[17] 12 February 201640%40%11%
IPSOS[18] 40%41%15%
Mercados y Muestras[19] 14 February 201628%47%25%

Aftermath

In September 2017 the Movement for Socialism applied to the Plurinational Constitutional Court to abolish term limits. In November the court ruled in favour of their abolition, citing the American Convention on Human Rights.[20] The ruling allowed Morales to run for re-election in the 2019 elections.[21]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Bolivia's Re-election Referendum: The case for Yes and No. Latin Correspondent. 18 February 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160219103934/http://latincorrespondent.com/2016/02/bolivias-re-election-referendum-the-case-for-yes-and-no/. 19 February 2016. dead. dmy-all.
  2. Web site: Bolivian referendum goes against Evo Morales as voters reject fourth term. Dan Collyns. Jonathan Watts. The Guardian. 28 May 2022.
  3. http://www.vicepresidencia.gob.bo/La-ALP-sanciono-la-Ley-de-Reforma-parcial-de-la-CPE La ALP sancionó la Ley de Reforma parcial de la CPE
  4. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-presidency-idUSKCN0RQ0SL20150926 Bolivia passes law to allow Morales to run for fourth term
  5. http://la-razon.com/nacional/Referendum_constitucional-consulta-habilitar-Evo-marcha-MAS-juega_0_2376362395.html Consulta para habilitar a Evo está en marcha; El MAS ‘se juega la vida’
  6. News: 2016-05-17 . Bolivian leader Morales' estranged son 'does not exist' . en-GB . BBC News . 2022-07-18.
  7. Book: Gustafson, Bret Darin . Bolivia in the age of gas . Duke University Press . 2020 . 978-1-4780-1252-8 . Durham . 224–225 . 1159629686.
  8. Book: Gustafson, Bret Darin . Bolivia in the age of gas . Duke University Press . 2020 . 978-1-4780-1252-8 . Durham . 225 . 1159629686.
  9. Web site: 2022-07-18 . Bolivian leader Morales' estranged son 'does not exist' - BBC News . https://web.archive.org/web/20220718160010/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36310935 . 2022-07-18 . 2022-07-18 .
  10. Web site: El Sí ganará el referendo según encuestas de Ipsos . El Deber . 26 October 2015 . 8 December 2015 . 10 March 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160310002954/http://www.eldeber.com.bo/bolivia/ganara-referendo-segun-encuestas-ipsos.html . dead .
  11. Web site: 54% rechaza la reforma de la CPE para otra reelección de Evo . Los Tiempos . 5 December 2015 . 8 December 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151210215444/http://www.lostiempos.com/diario/actualidad/nacional/20151205/54-rechaza-la-reforma-de-la-cpe-para-otra-reelecci%C3%B3n-de_325087_721898.html . 10 December 2015 . dead .
  12. Web site: 50% rechaza reforma que viabiliza la reelección, según encuesta . El Deber . 29 December 2015 . 1 December 2016 . 4 March 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160304095335/http://www.eldeber.com.bo/bolivia/50-rechaza-reforma-viabiliza-reeleccion.html . dead .
  13. Web site: Encuesta para EL DEBER da ventaja ajustada al 'Sí' . El Deber . 11 January 2016 . 12 January 2016 . 4 April 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160404184935/http://www.eldeber.com.bo/bolivia/41-poblacion-votaria.html . dead .
  14. Web site: Encuesta Ipsos: El No a la reforma a la Constitución gana al Sí con 44% frente al 38% . La Razón . 15 January 2016 . 16 January 2016 . 25 December 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161225082732/http://www.la-razon.com/nacional/Encuesta-Ipsos-reforma-Constitucion-frente_0_2418358244.html . dead .
  15. Web site: Bolivia: Morales promete aceptar sin reclamos si gana el "No" en febrero . DW . 14 January 2016 . 16 January 2016.
  16. Web site: Encuesta revela que 44,4% apoya el Sí a la repostulación del presidente Evo Morales en el eje central del país . ABI - Agencia Boliviana de Información . 11 February 2016 . 12 February 2016 . 6 September 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160906185042/http://www.abi.bo/abi/?i=343177 . dead .
  17. Web site: Encuesta de Mori dice que el No creció y que empata al Sí . El Deber . 12 February 2016 . 12 February 2016 . 16 February 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160216002236/http://www.eldeber.com.bo/elecciones/encuesta-mori-dice-no-crecio.html . dead .
  18. Web site: El No obtiene mínima ventaja sobre el Sí en el referéndum según encuesta de Ipsos . La Razón . 12 February 2016 . 12 February 2016 . 14 February 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160214083645/http://la-razon.com/nacional/animal_electoral/ganara-referendum-encuestas-Ipsos_0_2435156568.html . dead .
  19. Web site: Intención de voto: El Sí cae a 28% y el No sube a 47%. Los Tiempos. 14 February 2016. 14 February 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160215094608/http://www.lostiempos.com/diario/actualidad/nacional/20160214/intenci%C3%B3n-de-voto-el-s%C3%AD-cae-a-28-y-el-no-sube-a-47_332962_740207.html. 15 February 2016. dead.
  20. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bolivia-politics/bolivian-court-clears-the-way-for-morales-to-run-for-fourth-term-idUSKBN1DS2ZX Bolivian court clears way for Morales to run for fourth term
  21. News: Blair. Laurence. Evo for ever? Bolivia scraps term limits as critics blast 'coup' to keep Morales in power. 1 January 2018. The Guardian. 3 December 2017.

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