| Election Name: | 2015 Murcian regional election |
| Country: | Murcia |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | on |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Murcian regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Murcian regional election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia |
| Majority Seats: | 23 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 1,027,213 |
| Turnout: | 652,979 (63.6%) 4.3 pp |
| Election Date: | 24 May 2015 |
| Leader1: | Pedro Antonio Sánchez |
| Party1: | People's Party of the Region of Murcia |
| Leader Since1: | 5 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Three |
| Last Election1: | 33 seats, 58.8% |
| Seats1: | 22 |
| Seat Change1: | 11 |
| Popular Vote1: | 239,011 |
| Percentage1: | 37.4% |
| Swing1: | 21.4 pp |
| Leader2: | Rafael González Tovar |
| Party2: | Socialist Party of the Region of Murcia |
| Leader Since2: | 23 March 2012 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Three |
| Last Election2: | 11 seats, 23.9% |
| Seats2: | 13 |
| Seat Change2: | 2 |
| Popular Vote2: | 153,231 |
| Percentage2: | 23.9% |
| Swing2: | 0.0 pp |
| Leader3: | Óscar Urralburu |
| Party3: | Podemos Region of Murcia |
| Leader Since3: | 1 April 2015 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Three |
| Last Election3: | Did not contest |
| Seats3: | 6 |
| Seat Change3: | 6 |
| Popular Vote3: | 84,577 |
| Percentage3: | 13.2% |
| Swing3: | New party |
| Leader4: | Miguel Sánchez |
| Party4: | C's |
| Colour4: | EB6109 |
| Leader Since4: | 16 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Three |
| Last Election4: | Did not contest |
| Seats4: | 4 |
| Seat Change4: | 4 |
| Popular Vote4: | 80,459 |
| Percentage4: | 12.6% |
| Swing4: | New party |
| Leader5: | José Antonio Pujante |
| Party5: | Ganar la Región de Murcia |
| Leader Since5: | April 2005 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Three |
| Last Election5: | 1 seat, 7.8% |
| Seats5: | 0 |
| Seat Change5: | 1 |
| Popular Vote5: | 30,761 |
| Percentage5: | 4.8% |
| Swing5: | 3.0 pp |
| Map Size: | 350px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Alberto Garre |
| Before Party: | People's Party of the Region of Murcia |
| After Election: | Pedro Antonio Sánchez |
| After Party: | People's Party of the Region of Murcia |
The 2015 Murcian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community of the Region of Murcia. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]
Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado).[2] The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:
Each constituency was entitled to an initial minimum of one seat, with the remaining 40 allocated among the constituencies in proportion to their populations.[3]
The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1] [3] [4]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3] [4]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | Pedro Antonio Sánchez | Conservatism Christian democracy | 58.79% | [5] | |||||
| PSOE | Rafael González Tovar | Social democracy | 23.88% | [6] | |||||
| Ganar.IP | José Antonio Pujante | Socialism Communism Eco-socialism | 7.83% | [7] [8] | |||||
| Podemos | Óscar Urralburu | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | [9] | ||||||
| C's | Miguel Sánchez | Liberalism | [10] | ||||||
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 63.6 | 37.4 | 23.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 13.2 | 12.6 | 13.5 | ||
| GAD3/Antena 3[11] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | ? | ? | |
| GAD3/ABC[12] | 17 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | ? | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[13] [14] [15] | 17 May 2015 | 400 | ? | 40.2 | 21.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 12.3 | 14.2 | 18.6 | |
| CEMOP[16] [17] | 4–10 May 2015 | 800 | 68.4 | 35.2 | 21.3 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 13.8 | 21.8 | 13.4 | |
| CIS[18] [19] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,492 | ? | 41.0 | 24.9 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 10.4 | 13.8 | 16.1 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[20] [21] [22] | 4–16 Mar 2015 | 400 | ? | 39.1 | 20.3 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 18.8 | |
| CEMOP[23] [24] [25] [26] | 2 Feb–6 Mar 2015 | 2,944 | ? | 37.6 | 21.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 16.4 | |
| CEMOP[27] | 2 Feb–1 Mar 2015 | 2,667 | ? | 39.2 | 21.1 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 16.3 | 13.1 | 18.1 | |
| CEMOP[28] [29] | 2–20 Feb 2015 | 1,996 | ? | 39.3 | 21.1 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 18.2 | |
| CEMOP[30] [31] [32] | 2–13 Feb 2015 | 1,458 | ? | 39.4 | 21.9 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 17.5 | 11.4 | 17.5 | |
| Llorente & Cuenca[33] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | |
| PP[34] | 19 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | |
| CEMOP[35] [36] | 17–30 Sep 2014 | 800 | 63.3 | 42.2 | 18.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 17.3 | 4.2 | 23.9 | |
| Ganemos RM[37] | 26 Sep 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | ||
| 2014 EP election[38] | 25 May 2014 | 42.5 | 37.5 | 20.7 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 16.8 | ||
| TNS Demoscopia/CEMOP[39] [40] | 12–16 May 2014 | 700 | 60.9 | 40.9 | 20.1 | 14.4 | 11.9 | – | – | 20.8 | |
| Sigma Dos/La Verdad[41] [42] | 8–9 Apr 2014 | 1,000 | ? | 50.1 | 25.8 | 10.1 | 7.7 | – | – | 24.3 | |
| Celeste-Tel/La Verdad[43] | 24 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | 45.1 | 27.3 | 12.7 | 12.2 | – | – | 17.8 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[44] [45] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[46] [47] [48] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 200 | ? | 48.1 | 22.0 | ? | ? | – | – | 26.1 | |
| TNS Demoscopia/CEMOP[49] [50] | 24–30 Jan 2013 | 802 | 60.2 | 41.8 | 27.1 | 14.3 | 12.1 | – | – | 14.7 | |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 74.1 | 64.2 | 21.0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | – | – | 43.2 | ||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 67.9 | 58.8 | 23.9 | 7.8* | 4.5 | – | – | 34.9 | ||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| People's Party (PP) | 239,011 | 37.35 | –21.44 | 22 | –11 | ||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 153,231 | 23.95 | +0.07 | 13 | +2 | ||
| We Can (Podemos) | 84,577 | 13.22 | New | 6 | +6 | ||
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 80,459 | 12.57 | New | 4 | +4 | ||
| Winning the Region of Murcia.Plural Left (IU–V–RM–CLI–AS)1 | 30,761 | 4.81 | –3.02 | 0 | –1 | ||
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 10,422 | 1.63 | –2.87 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Citizens' Movement of Cartagena (MCC) | 8,793 | 1.37 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD) | 6,772 | 1.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Vox (Vox) | 5,427 | 0.85 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 4,663 | 0.73 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank Seats (EB) | 2,002 | 0.31 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 1,422 | 0.22 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Citizens' Democratic Renewal Movement (RED) | 912 | 0.14 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 763 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD) | 532 | 0.08 | –0.05 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Spain on the Move (LEM) | 88 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 10,057 | 1.57 | –0.59 | ||||
| Total | 639,892 | 45 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 639,892 | 98.00 | –0.37 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 13,087 | 2.00 | +0.37 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 652,979 | 63.57 | –4.34 | ||||
| Abstentions | 374,234 | 36.43 | +4.34 | ||||
| Registered voters | 1,027,213 | ||||||
| Sources[51] [52] [53] | |||||||
| Constituency | PP | PSOE | Podemos | C's | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| One | 41.6 | 4 | 28.1 | 2 | 10.1 | 1 | 7.4 | − | |||||||
| Two | 35.2 | 5 | 21.0 | 3 | 14.7 | 2 | 13.4 | 1 | |||||||
| Three | 37.1 | 10 | 21.5 | 5 | 14.6 | 3 | 14.4 | 3 | |||||||
| Four | 34.5 | 2 | 38.9 | 2 | 8.3 | − | 9.4 | − | |||||||
| Five | 41.7 | 1 | 26.1 | 1 | 8.6 | − | 9.7 | − | |||||||
| Total | 37.4 | 22 | 23.9 | 13 | 13.2 | 6 | 12.6 | 4 | |||||||
| Sources | |||||||||||||||
| Investiture Pedro Antonio Sánchez (PP) | |||
| Ballot → | 30 June 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 23 out of 45 | ||
| Abstentions | |||
| Absentees | |||
| Sources | |||
| Investiture Fernando López Miras (PP) | ||||
| Ballot → | 27 April 2017 | 29 April 2017 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 23 out of 45 | Simple | ||
| Absentees | ||||
| Sources | ||||
