| Election Name: | 2015 Madeiran regional election |
| Country: | Madeira |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Madeiran regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Madeiran regional election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | 47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira |
| Turnout: | 49.6% 7.8 pp |
| Majority Seats: | 24 |
| Election Date: | 29 March 2015 |
| Leader1: | Miguel Albuquerque |
| Party1: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
| Last Election1: | 25 seats, 48.6% |
| Seats1: | 24 |
| Seat Change1: | 1 |
| Popular Vote1: | 56,569 |
| Percentage1: | 44.4% |
| Swing1: | 4.2 pp |
| Leader2: | José Manuel Rodrigues |
| Party2: | CDS – People's Party |
| Last Election2: | 9 seats, 17.6% |
| Seats2: | 7 |
| Seat Change2: | 2 |
| Popular Vote2: | 17,489 |
| Percentage2: | 13.7% |
| Swing2: | 3.9 pp |
| Image3: | PS |
| Leader3: | Victor Freitas |
| Colour3: | aa2277 |
| Alliance Name: | no |
| Alliance3: | Change |
| Party3: | Socialist Party (Portugal) |
| Last Election3: | 11 seats, 22.4% |
| Seats3: | 6 |
| Seat Change3: | 5 |
| Popular Vote3: | 14,574 |
| Percentage3: | 11.4% |
| Swing3: | 11.0 pp |
| Image4: | JPP |
| Leader4: | Élvio Sousa |
| Party4: | JPP |
| Last Election4: | Did not contest |
| Seats4: | 5 |
| Seat Change4: | 5 |
| Popular Vote4: | 13,114 |
| Percentage4: | 10.3% |
| Swing4: | New party |
| Colour5: | FF0000 |
| Leader5: | Edgar Silva |
| Party5: | CDU |
| Last Election5: | 1 seat, 3.8% |
| Seats5: | 2 |
| Seat Change5: | 1 |
| Popular Vote5: | 7,060 |
| Percentage5: | 5.5% |
| Swing5: | 1.8 pp |
| Image6: | BE |
| Leader6: | Roberto Almada |
| Party6: | Left Bloc (Portugal) |
| Last Election6: | 0 seats, 1.7% |
| Seats6: | 2 |
| Seat Change6: | 2 |
| Popular Vote6: | 4,849 |
| Percentage6: | 3.8% |
| Swing6: | 2.1 pp |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| President | |
| Posttitle: | President-designate |
| Before Election: | Alberto João Jardim |
| Before Party: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
| After Election: | Miguel Albuquerque |
| After Party: | Social Democratic Party (Portugal) |
A regional election was held in Madeira on 29 March 2015, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election was the first in which the former President of the Region, Alberto João Jardim, was not on the ballot as he earlier stated that he would step down as President and leader of the PSD-Madeira in January 2015.[1] On 29 December 2014, the PSD-Madeira elected Miguel Albuquerque as the new president of the party's regional section.[2] After winning the presidency, Albuquerque stated that he would not assume the Presidency of the Government without an election,[3] so Alberto João Jardim asked President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to dissolve the Parliament and call an election, which was scheduled for 29 March.[4]
The campaign for the regional legislative election in Madeira ran from 15 to 27 March 2015.
The results showed that the Social Democrats were reelected for the 11th time in a row and, again, with an absolute majority of 24 seats, against the 25 seats won in 2011. The People's Party was again the second most voted party and the coalition between the Socialists and other smaller parties called Change suffered a huge defeat by winning fewer votes and seats compared to the combined total of the parties in 2011. Together for the People was the surprise of the election winning 10.3 percent of the vote and winning 5 seats. The Unitary Democratic Coalition increase their result by one MP and the Left Bloc returned to the regional parliament with 2 seats.[5]
The turnout in these elections was the lowest ever, with 49.6 percent of voters casting a ballot.
After 34 years of uninterrupted rule and without any challenges to his leadership within the party, Alberto João Jardim faced an internal challenge from the mayor of Funchal, Miguel Albuquerque.[6] The leadership ballot was held on 2 November 2012 and, in a surprise result, Jardim just narrowly defeated Albuquerque by a 52 to 48 percent margin.[7] The results were the following:|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Alberto João Jardim| align=right | 1,786| align=right | 52.1|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Miguel Albuquerque| align=right | 1,644| align=right | 47.9|-| colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots| align=right | 43| align=right | –|-|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"| colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Turnout| align=right | 3,473| align=right | 90.00|-| colspan="4" align=left|Source: [7] |}
Shortly after his narrow win in the party leadership ballot, Jardim announced that this would be his last term as leader and that he would abandon office in early 2015.[8] In late 2014, a leadership ballot was called to elect Jardim's successor. Six candidates were in the race:[9] Former mayor of Funchal, Miguel Albuquerque; João Cunha e Silva; Jaime Ramos; Miguel de Sousa, by then deputy Speaker of the Madeira regional parliament; Sérgio Marques, former member of Jardim's regional governments; and Manuel António Correia, by then regional secretary for Environment and Natural Resources. The first ballot was held on 19 December 2014 and a second one on 29 December 2014. Albuquerque was the most voted in the first round with 47 percent of the votes, and defeated Manuel António Correia by a 64 to 36 percent margin in the second round.[10] [11] The results were the following:
|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! align="center" rowspan=2 colspan=2 style="width: 60px"|Candidate! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 50px"|1st round! align="center" colspan=2 style="width: 50px"|2nd round|-! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%! align="center" style="width: 50px"|Votes! align="center" style="width: 50px"|%|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Miguel Albuquerque| align=right | 2,992| align=right | 47.2| align=right | 3,949| align=right | 64.1|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Manuel António Correia| align=right | 1,819| align=right | 28.7| align=right | 2,216| align=right | 35.9|-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | João Cunha e Silva| align=right | 996| align=right | 15.7|colspan="2"| |-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Sérgio Marques| align=right | 335| align=right | 5.3|colspan="2"| |-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Miguel de Sousa| align=right | 144| align=right | 2.3|colspan="2"| |-|bgcolor=orange|| align=left | Jaime Ramos| align=right | 47| align=right | 0.7|colspan="2"| |-| colspan=2 align=left | Blank/Invalid ballots| align=right | 64| align=right | –| align=right | 67| align=right | –|-|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"| colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Turnout| align=right | 6,397| align=right | 89.29| align=right | 6,232| align=right | 87.00|-| colspan="6" align=left|Source: [10] [11] |}
The 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region.[12]
The parties that contested the election, and their leaders, were:[13]
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Firm | PSD | CDS-PP | PS | PTP | CDU | PND | PAN | MPT | BE | JPP | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 March 2015 | Election results | 44.4 | 13.7 | 11.4 | w. PS | 5.5 | 2.1 | w. PS | w. PS | 3.8 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 30.6 | ||
| 21–23 Mar | Universidade Católica | 49.0 | 11.0 | 18.0 | w. PS | 5.0 | 2.0 | w. PS | w. PS | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 31.0 | ||
| 16–18 Mar | Eurosondagem | 46.7 | 12.5 | 19.5 | w. PS | 4.8 | 1.6 | w. PS | w. PS | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 27.2 | ||
| 9–12 Mar | Eurosondagem | 43.3 | 11.1 | 22.5 | w. PS | 4.8 | 1.7 | w. PS | w. PS | 2.2 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 20.8 | ||
| 2015 | |||||||||||||||
| 11–14 Nov | Eurosondagem | 33.1 | 16.9 | 26.6 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 | Did not exist | 4.1 | 6.5 | ||
| 3–5 Nov | Eurosondagem | 30.9 | 17.0 | 27.0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 3.9 | |||
| 18–22 Jul | Eurosondagem | 32.1 | 17.9 | 22.6 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | |||
| 25 May 2014 | EP elections | 31.0 | w. PSD | 22.6 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 15.7 | 8.4 | |||
| 8–14 Jan | Eurosondagem | 33.9 | 20.1 | 25.5 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 8.4 | |||
| 2014 | |||||||||||||||
| 29 September 2013 | Local elections | 34.8 | 13.0 | 25.8 | 0.7 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 17.2 | 9.0 | ||||
| 2013 | |||||||||||||||
| 24–25 May | Eurosondagem | 43.9 | 21.2 | 13.5 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 22.7 | |||
| 2012 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 October 2011 | Election results | 48.6 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 31.0 | |||
Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 24 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira.
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Firm | PSD | CDS-PP | PS | PTP | CDU | PND | PAN | MPT | BE | JPP | Others | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 March 2015 | Election Results | 24 | 7 | 6 | w. PS | 2 | 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 2 | 5 | 0 | |||
| 21–23 Mar | Universidade Católica | 23 / 27 | 4 / 6 | 8 / 10 | w. PS | 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 1 / 2 | 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 | |||
| 16–18 Mar | Eurosondagem | 24 / 25 | 6 / 7 | 10 / 11 | w. PS | 2 | 0 / 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 1 | 2 / 3 | 0 | |||
| 9–12 Mar | Eurosondagem | 22 / 23 | 5 / 6 | 11 / 12 | w. PS | 2 | 0 / 1 | w. PS | w. PS | 1 | 4 | 0 | |||
| 2015 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 October 2011 | Election Results | 25 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Did not exist | 0 | |||
The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.
| Turnout | Time | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | 16:00 | 19:00 | ||||||||
| 2011 | 2015 | ± | 2011 | 2015 | ± | 2011 | 2015 | ± | ||
| Total | 23.47% | 17.21% | 6.26 pp | 43.46% | 37.48% | 5.98 pp | 57.38% | 49.58% | 7.80 pp | |
| Sources[14] [15] | ||||||||||
|-| colspan=11| |- ! rowspan="2" colspan=2 style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=left|Parties! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|Votes! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±pp swing! colspan="5" style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align="center"|MPs! rowspan="2" style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:right;" |MPs %/
votes %|- style="background-color:#E9E9E9"! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"|2011! style="background-color:#E9E9E9;text-align:center;"| 2015! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|%! style="background-color:#E9E9E9" align=right|±|-| ||56,574||44.36||4.2||25||24||1||51.06||2.1||1.15|-| ||17,488||13.71||3.9||9||7||2||14.89||4.3||1.09|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor=#aa2277 align="center" | |align=left|Change Coalition||14,573||11.43||11.0||11||6||5||12.77||10.6||1.12|-| ||13,114||10.28||||||5||||10.64||||1.03|-| ||7,060||5.54||1.8||1||2||1||4.25||2.1||0.77|-| ||4,849||3.80||2.1||0||2||2||4.25||4.3||1.12|-| ||2,635||2.07||1.2||1||1||0||2.13||0.0||1.04|-| ||2,137||1.67||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-| ||1,715||1.34||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-| ||1,052||0.82||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-|style="width: 10px" bgcolor= align="center" | |align=left|Citizen Platform||903||0.71||||||0||||0.00||||0.0|-|colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total valid|width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|122,100|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|95.74|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|1.6|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|47|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|0.0|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|—|-|colspan=2|Blank ballots||1,116||0.87||0.2||colspan=6 rowspan=4||-|colspan=2|Invalid ballots||4,323||3.39||1.5|-|colspan=2 align=left style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|Total|width="50" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|127,539|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"|100.00|width="40" align="right" style="background-color:#E9E9E9"||-|colspan=2|Registered voters/turnout||257,232||49.58||7.8|-| colspan=11 align=left|Coalition between the PS, PTP, PAN and the MPT. The 11 seats from 2011 are the sum of PS, PTP, PAN and MPT seats.
Portuguese Communist Party (2 MPs) and "The Greens" (0 MPs) ran in coalition.
People's Monarchist Party (0 MPs) and Democratic Party of the Atlantic (0 MPs) ran in coalition.|-| colspan=11 align=left | Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições|}