| Election Name: | 2015 Extremaduran regional election |
| Country: | Extremadura |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Extremaduran regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Extremaduran regional election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura |
| Majority Seats: | 33 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 911,433 |
| Turnout: | 650,774 (71.4%) 3.3 pp |
| Election Date: | 24 May 2015 |
| Leader1: | Guillermo Fernández Vara |
| Party1: | PSOE–SIEx |
| Colour1: | EF1C27 |
| Leader Since1: | 20 September 2006 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Badajoz |
| Last Election1: | 30 seats, 43.4% |
| Seats1: | 30 |
| Seat Change1: | 0 |
| Popular Vote1: | 265,015 |
| Percentage1: | 41.5% |
| Swing1: | 1.9 pp |
| Leader2: | José Antonio Monago |
| Party2: | People's Party of Extremadura |
| Leader Since2: | 8 November 2008 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Badajoz |
| Last Election2: | 32 seats, 46.1% |
| Seats2: | 28 |
| Seat Change2: | 4 |
| Popular Vote2: | 236,266 |
| Percentage2: | 37.0% |
| Swing2: | 9.1 pp |
| Leader3: | Álvaro Jaén |
| Party3: | Podemos Extremadura |
| Leader Since3: | 14 February 2015 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Cáceres |
| Last Election3: | Did not contest |
| Seats3: | 6 |
| Seat Change3: | 6 |
| Popular Vote3: | 51,216 |
| Percentage3: | 8.0% |
| Swing3: | New party |
| Leader4: | Victoria Domínguez |
| Party4: | C's |
| Colour4: | EB6109 |
| Leader Since4: | 5 April 2015 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Cáceres |
| Last Election4: | 0 seats, 0.3% |
| Seats4: | 1 |
| Seat Change4: | 1 |
| Popular Vote4: | 28,010 |
| Percentage4: | 4.4% |
| Swing4: | 4.1 pp |
| Leader5: | Pedro Escobar |
| Leader Since5: | 30 September 2007 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Badajoz (lost) |
| Party5: | United Left Extremadura |
| Last Election5: | 3 seats, 5.7% |
| Seats5: | 0 |
| Seat Change5: | 3 |
| Popular Vote5: | 27,122 |
| Percentage5: | 4.2% |
| Swing5: | 1.5 pp |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | José Antonio Monago |
| Before Party: | People's Party of Extremadura |
| After Election: | Guillermo Fernández Vara |
| After Party: | Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Extremadura |
The 2015 Extremaduran regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Assembly of Extremadura was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Extremadura, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Extremaduran Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]
Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Extremadurans abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado).[2] The 65 members of the Assembly of Extremadura were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies were also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both districts and reached five percent regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[1] [3]
The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 2 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[3] [4]
The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Assembly on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[1] [3] [4]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 71.4 | 37.0 | 41.5 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | ||
| GAD3/Antena 3[5] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | ? | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[6] [7] [8] | 17 May 2015 | 500 | ? | 35.7 | 37.6 | 4.0 | 0.8 | – | 10.1 | 9.5 | 1.9 | |
| PP[9] | 4–8 May 2015 | 3,500 | ? | 41.1 | 30.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | – | 10.0 | 10.6 | 10.8 | |
| Enquest/El Periódico[10] [11] | 28–30 Apr 2015 | ? | 75.5 | 41.0 | 30.7 | 4.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 10.3 | |
| GAD3/ABC[12] [13] [14] | 22–24 Apr 2015 | 501 | ? | 37.9 | 33.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | – | 8.3 | 10.5 | 4.0 | |
| Metroscopia/El País[15] [16] | 21–22 Apr 2015 | 1,000 | ? | 37.4 | 31.8 | 5.4 | – | – | 13.0 | 10.5 | 5.6 | |
| CIS[17] [18] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,199 | ? | 34.6 | 38.9 | 4.1 | 0.7 | – | 11.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | |
| Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días[19] | 30 Mar–15 Apr 2015 | 14,073 | 79.1 | 33.3 | 34.8 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 1.5 | |
| PSOE[20] | 9 Apr 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | ? | ? | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[21] [22] [23] | 25 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 500 | ? | 36.2 | 38.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | – | 9.1 | 9.2 | 2.0 | |
| Sigma Dos/Canal Extremadura[24] [25] | 24–27 Feb 2015 | 1,300 | ? | 43.8 | 29.2 | 4.4 | – | – | 13.4 | 4.4 | 14.6 | |
| Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días[26] [27] | 9–20 Feb 2015 | 1,067 | ? | 32.6 | 33.4 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 12.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | |
| PP[28] | 31 Jan 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | – | ? | |
| Sigma Dos/Hoy[29] [30] | 8–12 Jan 2015 | 800 | ? | 43.0 | 33.3 | 5.8 | – | – | 12.4 | – | 9.7 | |
| Llorente & Cuenca[31] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | – | ? | |
| Vaubán/Extremadura 7 Días[32] [33] | 21 Oct 2014 | 376 | ? | 33.0 | 35.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | – | 9.5 | – | 2.0 | |
| Sigma Dos/Hoy[34] [35] | 16–20 Oct 2014 | 800 | ? | 39.7 | 38.2 | 3.6 | – | – | 13.5 | – | 1.5 | |
| 2014 EP election[36] | 25 May 2014 | 44.1 | 35.6 | 38.7 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 3.1 | ||
| Sigma Dos/Hoy[37] [38] | 23–27 Jan 2014 | 800 | ? | 44.3 | 38.9 | 9.5 | 3.6 | – | – | – | 5.4 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[39] [40] [41] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | – | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[42] [43] [44] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 250 | ? | 39.1 | 43.2 | ? | – | – | – | – | 4.1 | |
| Sigma Dos/Hoy[45] [46] | 29 Apr–3 May 2013 | 800 | ? | 45.1 | 39.1 | 8.5 | 2.7 | – | – | – | 6.0 | |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 73.9 | 51.2 | 37.2 | 5.7 | 3.5 | – | – | – | 14.0 | ||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 74.7 | 46.1 | 43.4 | 5.7 | 1.1 | – | – | – | 2.7 | ||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party–Independent Socialists (PSOE–SIEx) | 265,015 | 41.50 | –1.95 | 30 | ±0 | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 236,266 | 37.00 | –9.13 | 28 | –4 | ||
| We Can (Podemos) | 51,216 | 8.02 | New | 6 | +6 | ||
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 | 28,010 | 4.39 | +4.06 | 1 | +1 | ||
| Let's Win Extremadura–United Left–The Greens (Ganemos–IU–LV) | 27,122 | 4.25 | –1.47 | 0 | –3 | ||
| Extremadurans (eXtremeños)2 | 9,305 | 1.46 | +1.30 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 3,947 | 0.62 | –0.44 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| United Extremadura (EU) | 3,127 | 0.49 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Vox (Vox) | 1,786 | 0.28 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Forward Extremadura (AEx) | 1,538 | 0.24 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 1,502 | 0.24 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Forward Badajoz (BA) | 1,245 | 0.19 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 8,561 | 1.34 | –0.07 | ||||
| Total | 638,640 | 65 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 638,640 | 98.14 | –0.51 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 12,134 | 1.86 | +0.51 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 650,774 | 71.40 | –3.25 | ||||
| Abstentions | 260,659 | 28.60 | +3.25 | ||||
| Registered voters | 911,433 | ||||||
| Sources[47] [48] [49] | |||||||
| Constituency | PSOE | PP | Podemos | C's | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| Badajoz | 43.7 | 18 | 36.3 | 15 | 7.3 | 3 | 3.9 | − | |||||||
| Cáceres | 38.0 | 12 | 38.2 | 13 | 9.2 | 3 | 5.1 | 1 | |||||||
| Total | 41.5 | 30 | 37.0 | 28 | 8.0 | 6 | 4.4 | 1 | |||||||
| Sources | |||||||||||||||
| Investiture Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE) | |||
| Ballot → | 1 July 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 33 out of 65 | ||
| No | |||
| Absentees | |||
| Sources | |||