| Election Name: | 2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election |
| Country: | Castile and León |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Castilian-Leonese regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | All 84 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León |
| Majority Seats: | 43 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 2,151,993 0.7% |
| Turnout: | 1,391,797 (64.7%) 2.8 pp |
| Election Date: | 24 May 2015 |
| Leader1: | Juan Vicente Herrera |
| Party1: | People's Party of Castile and León |
| Leader Since1: | 16 March 2001 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Burgos |
| Last Election1: | 53 seats, 51.6% |
| Seats1: | 42 |
| Seat Change1: | 11 |
| Popular Vote1: | 514,301 |
| Percentage1: | 37.7% |
| Swing1: | 13.9 pp |
| Leader2: | Luis Tudanca |
| Party2: | Socialist Party of Castile and León |
| Leader Since2: | 18 October 2014 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Burgos |
| Last Election2: | 29 seats, 29.7% |
| Seats2: | 25 |
| Seat Change2: | 4 |
| Popular Vote2: | 353,575 |
| Percentage2: | 25.9% |
| Swing2: | 3.7 pp |
| Leader3: | Pablo Fernández |
| Party3: | Podemos Castile and León |
| Leader Since3: | 14 February 2015 |
| Leaders Seat3: | León |
| Last Election3: | Did not contest |
| Seats3: | 10 |
| Seat Change3: | 10 |
| Popular Vote3: | 165,475 |
| Percentage3: | 12.1% |
| Swing3: | New party |
| Leader4: | Luis Fuentes |
| Party4: | C's |
| Colour4: | EB6109 |
| Leader Since4: | 14 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Valladolid |
| Last Election4: | 0 seats, 0.3% |
| Seats4: | 5 |
| Seat Change4: | 5 |
| Popular Vote4: | 139,954 |
| Percentage4: | 10.3% |
| Swing4: | 10.0 pp |
| Leader5: | José Sarrión |
| Party5: | IU–Equo |
| Colour5: | 732021 |
| Leader Since5: | 15 February 2015 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Valladolid |
| Last Election5: | 1 seat, 4.9% |
| Seats5: | 1 |
| Seat Change5: | 0 |
| Popular Vote5: | 56,516 |
| Percentage5: | 4.1% |
| Swing5: | 0.8 pp |
| Leader6: | Luis Mariano Santos |
| Party6: | Leonese People's Union |
| Leader Since6: | 26 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat6: | León |
| Last Election6: | 1 seat, 1.9% |
| Seats6: | 1 |
| Seat Change6: | 0 |
| Popular Vote6: | 19,176 |
| Percentage6: | 1.4% |
| Swing6: | 0.5 pp |
| Map Size: | 325px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Juan Vicente Herrera |
| Before Party: | People's Party of Castile and León |
| After Election: | Juan Vicente Herrera |
| After Party: | People's Party of Castile and León |
The 2015 Castilian-Leonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castile and León. All 84 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The ruling People's Party (PP) sustained a sharp decline in its support, with a decrease of almost fourteen percentage points in the vote share and falling short of an overall majority for the first time since 1987. Concurrently, the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) secured its worst historical result with only 25.9% and 25 seats, whereas the Leonese People's Union (UPL) had its worst showing since 1991. Newcomers Podemos (Spanish for "We Can") and Citizens (C's) made substantial inroads, both securing over 10% of the share.
The election result forced the PP candidate and incumbent regional president Juan Vicente Herrera to secure the support of C's in order to be re-elected for a fifth term in office, which would also end up being his last.
The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado).[2]
All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.[1] [3]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Valladolid | |
| 14 | León | |
| 11 | Burgos, Salamanca | |
| 7 | Ávila, Palencia, Segovia, Zamora | |
| 5 | Soria |
The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[4]
The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 27 June 2015.[1] [3] [5]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]
The Cortes of Castile and León were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Castile and León.[6] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 53 | 53 | ||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 29 | 29 | ||
| Mixed Parliamentary Group | IUCyL | 1 | 2 | ||
| UPL | 1 | ||||
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3] [5]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | Juan Vicente Herrera | Conservatism Christian democracy | 51.55% | [8] [9] | |||||
| PSOE | Luis Tudanca | Social democracy | 29.68% | [10] [11] | |||||
| IU–Equo | José Sarrión | Socialism Communism | 4.87% | [12] | |||||
| UPL | Luis Mariano Santos | Regionalism Autonomism | 1.86% | [13] | |||||
| C's | Luis Fuentes | Liberalism | 0.26% | [14] | |||||
| Podemos | Pablo Fernández | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | [15] [16] | ||||||
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 43 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | UPL | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 64.9 | 37.7 | 25.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 0.7 | 11.8 | ||
| GAD3/Antena 3[17] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[18] [19] [20] | 17 May 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 42.2 | 24.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 12.6 | 10.5 | – | 17.5 | |
| GAD3/ABC[21] [22] [23] | 6–11 May 2015 | 550 | ? | 39.2 | 24.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 13.5 | 11.8 | – | 14.7 | |
| Madison MK/El Norte de Castilla[24] [25] | 29 Apr–6 May 2015 | 1,906 | ? | 38.9 | 22.5 | 5.7 | – | 1.7 | 13.2 | 10.4 | – | 16.4 | |
| Celeste-Tel/Edigrup[26] [27] | 22–30 Apr 2015 | 2,700 | 64.7 | 44.3 | 25.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 19.3 | |
| CIS[28] [29] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | ? | 40.9 | 22.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 11.1 | 10.3 | – | 18.0 | |
| Sigma Dos/Ical[30] [31] | 12–24 Mar 2015 | 2,200 | ? | 39.6 | 22.2 | 5.6 | – | 1.3 | 13.3 | 13.8 | – | 17.4 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[32] [33] [34] | 4–20 Mar 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 39.3 | 23.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 14.1 | 12.7 | – | 15.5 | |
| Pnyx/RTVCyL[35] [36] [37] | 29 Dec–3 Jan 2015 | 2,000 | 71 | 37.6 | 24.1 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 1.5 | 5.6 | 11.7 | 2.3 | 13.5 | |
| Llorente & Cuenca[38] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | – | ? | |
| 2014 EP election[39] | 25 May 2014 | 45.9 | 37.5 | 23.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | – | 2.7 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 14.1 | ||
| NC Report/La Razón[40] [41] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[42] [43] [44] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 400 | ? | 44.9 | 28.1 | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | 16.8 | |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 71.3 | 55.4 | 29.2 | 5.6 | 6.1 | – | – | – | – | 26.2 | ||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 67.5 | 51.6 | 29.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – | 21.9 | ||
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | UPL | Lead | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 25.5 | 17.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 31.0 | 8.0 | |||
| CIS | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 2,989 | 20.3 | 12.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 34.6 | 10.2 | 7.8 | |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | 17.8 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 4.0 | – | 1.3 | 3.9 | 51.3 | 6.7 | |||
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 41.0 | 21.6 | 4.2 | 4.5 | – | – | – | 24.9 | 19.4 | |||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 36.0 | 20.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | – | – | 28.9 | 15.4 | |||
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Castile and León.
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| People's Party (PP) | 514,301 | 37.73 | –13.82 | 42 | –11 | ||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 353,575 | 25.94 | –3.74 | 25 | –4 | ||
| We Can (Podemos) | 165,475 | 12.14 | New | 10 | +10 | ||
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 | 139,954 | 10.27 | +10.01 | 5 | +5 | ||
| United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León (IU–Equo) | 56,516 | 4.15 | –0.72 | 1 | ±0 | ||
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 19,597 | 1.44 | –1.84 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Leonese People's Union (UPL) | 19,176 | 1.41 | –0.45 | 1 | ±0 | ||
| Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre (CI–CCD)2 | 12,748 | 0.94 | +0.19 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Vox (Vox) | 9,333 | 0.68 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 7,263 | 0.53 | +0.16 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)3 | 5,032 | 0.37 | +0.20 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact (PCAS–TC–Pacto) | 4,504 | 0.33 | –0.61 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Let's Win the Fracking Castile and León (Ganemos al Fracking) | 2,445 | 0.18 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Zamoran Independent Electors (ADEIZA) | 2,380 | 0.17 | –0.06 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Decide Now–Socialist Alternative (Ahora Decide–AS) | 2,285 | 0.17 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity (PAL–UL) | 1,963 | 0.14 | –0.13 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS) | 1,779 | 0.13 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA) | 1,698 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 1,408 | 0.10 | +0.07 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL) | 1,374 | 0.10 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 973 | 0.07 | –0.02 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Party for Freedom–With Clean Hands (PxL) | 934 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| National Democracy (DN) | 896 | 0.07 | –0.08 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Spanish Democratic Segovian Party (PSeDE) | 874 | 0.06 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León (DRCyL)4 | 848 | 0.06 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| United Free Citizens (CILUS) | 742 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB) | 732 | 0.05 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Cives (Cives) | 628 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank Seats (EB) | 348 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 33,274 | 2.44 | –0.84 | ||||
| Total | 1,363,055 | 84 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 1,363,055 | 97.93 | –0.16 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 28,742 | 2.07 | +0.16 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,391,797 | 64.67 | –2.83 | ||||
| Abstentions | 760,196 | 35.33 | +2.83 | ||||
| Registered voters | 2,151,993 | ||||||
| Sources[45] [46] [47] | |||||||
| Constituency | PP | PSOE | Podemos | C's | IU–Equo | UPL | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| Ávila | 45.3 | 4 | 22.1 | 2 | 10.1 | − | 11.9 | 1 | 4.0 | − | |||||||||||||
| Burgos | 36.5 | 5 | 24.7 | 3 | 14.2 | 2 | 12.1 | 1 | 3.9 | − | |||||||||||||
| León | 32.1 | 5 | 27.3 | 5 | 12.6 | 2 | 8.9 | 1 | 3.4 | − | 7.0 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Palencia | 41.0 | 4 | 29.0 | 2 | 10.8 | 1 | 9.9 | − | 3.9 | − | |||||||||||||
| Salamanca | 41.5 | 6 | 25.3 | 3 | 10.8 | 1 | 13.3 | 1 | 3.0 | − | |||||||||||||
| Segovia | 40.0 | 4 | 27.5 | 2 | 11.3 | 1 | 9.1 | − | 3.6 | − | |||||||||||||
| Soria | 36.9 | 3 | 31.2 | 2 | 12.0 | − | 12.1 | − | 2.8 | − | |||||||||||||
| Valladolid | 35.7 | 7 | 25.0 | 4 | 13.1 | 2 | 8.9 | 1 | 6.2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Zamora | 41.3 | 4 | 25.5 | 2 | 11.0 | 1 | 7.8 | − | 4.3 | − | 0.7 | − | |||||||||||
| Total | 37.7 | 42 | 25.9 | 25 | 12.1 | 10 | 10.3 | 5 | 4.1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Sources | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investiture Juan Vicente Herrera (PP) | ||||
| Ballot → | 3 July 2015 | 3 July 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 43 out of 84 | Simple | ||
| Absentees | ||||
| Sources | ||||
