| Election Name: | 2015 Aragonese regional election |
| Country: | Aragon |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Aragonese regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Aragonese regional election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon |
| Majority Seats: | 34 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 1,020,106 0.4% |
| Turnout: | 676,654 (66.3%) 1.6 pp |
| Election Date: | 24 May 2015 |
| Leader1: | Luisa Fernanda Rudi |
| Party1: | People's Party of Aragon |
| Leader Since1: | 8 November 2008 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Zaragoza |
| Last Election1: | 30 seats, 39.7% |
| Seats1: | 21 |
| Seat Change1: | 9 |
| Popular Vote1: | 183,654 |
| Percentage1: | 27.5% |
| Swing1: | 12.2 pp |
| Leader2: | Javier Lambán |
| Party2: | Socialists' Party of Aragon |
| Leader Since2: | 31 March 2012 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Zaragoza |
| Last Election2: | 22 seats, 29.0% |
| Seats2: | 18 |
| Seat Change2: | 4 |
| Popular Vote2: | 143,096 |
| Percentage2: | 21.4% |
| Swing2: | 7.6 pp |
| Leader3: | Pablo Echenique |
| Party3: | Podemos (Spanish political party) |
| Leader Since3: | 14 February 2015 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Zaragoza |
| Last Election3: | Did not contest |
| Seats3: | 14 |
| Seat Change3: | 14 |
| Popular Vote3: | 137,325 |
| Percentage3: | 20.6% |
| Swing3: | New party |
| Leader4: | Arturo Aliaga |
| Party4: | Aragonese Party |
| Leader Since4: | 29 November 2014 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Zaragoza |
| Last Election4: | 7 seats, 9.2% |
| Seats4: | 6 |
| Seat Change4: | 1 |
| Popular Vote4: | 45,846 |
| Percentage4: | 6.9% |
| Swing4: | 2.3 pp |
| Leader5: | Susana Gaspar |
| Party5: | C's |
| Leader Since5: | 14 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Zaragoza |
| Last Election5: | Did not contest |
| Seats5: | 5 |
| Seat Change5: | 5 |
| Popular Vote5: | 62,907 |
| Percentage5: | 9.4% |
| Swing5: | New party |
| Leader6: | José Luis Soro |
| Party6: | Chunta Aragonesista |
| Leader Since6: | 10 February 2012 |
| Leaders Seat6: | Zaragoza |
| Last Election6: | 4 seats, 8.2% |
| Seats6: | 2 |
| Seat Change6: | 2 |
| Popular Vote6: | 30,618 |
| Percentage6: | 4.6% |
| Swing6: | 3.6 pp |
| Map Size: | 225px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Luisa Fernanda Rudi |
| Before Party: | People's Party of Aragon |
| After Election: | Javier Lambán |
| After Party: | Socialists' Party of Aragon |
The 2015 Aragonese regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community of Aragon. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado).[2]
The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).[1] [3]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:[4]
| Seats | Constituencies | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Zaragoza | |
| 18 | Huesca | |
| 14 | Teruel |
The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[5]
The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015.[1] [3] [6]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1]
The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June.[4]
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.[7]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | |||||
| People's Parliamentary Group | PP | 30 | 30 | |||
| Socialist Parliamentary Group | PSOE | 22 | 22 | |||
| Aragonese Parliamentary Group | PAR | 7 | 7 | |||
| Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group | CHA | 4 | 4 | |||
| United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group | IU | 4 | 4 | |||
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[3] [6]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | Luisa Fernanda Rudi | Conservatism Christian democracy | 39.69% | [8] | |||||
| PSOE | Javier Lambán | Social democracy | 29.02% | [9] | |||||
| PAR | Arturo Aliaga | Regionalism Centrism | 9.15% | [10] | |||||
| CHA | José Luis Soro | Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism | 8.23% | [11] | |||||
| IU | Patricia Luquin | Socialism Communism | 6.16% | [12] | |||||
| UPyD | José Luis Lajara | Social liberalism Radical centrism | 2.31% | ||||||
| Podemos | Pablo Echenique | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | [13] | ||||||
| C's | Susana Gaspar | Liberalism | [14] | ||||||
| Date | Organisers | Moderator(s) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP | PSOE | PAR | CHA | IU | UPyD | Podemos | Audience | |||||
| 11 May | Aragón TV | Pepe Quílez | NI | NI | NI | NI | NI | 11.4% | [15] [16] | |||
| 15 May | Aragón TV | Pepe Quílez | S | S | 6.4% | [17] [18] | ||||||
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | Lead | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 66.3 | 27.5 | 21.4 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 20.6 | 9.4 | 6.1 | ||
| TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[19] | 24 May 2015 | ? | ? | 27.6 | 20.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.4 | – | 21.0 | 10.4 | 6.6 | |
| GAD3/Antena 3[20] | 11–22 May 2015 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | ? | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[21] [22] [23] | 17 May 2015 | 550 | ? | 30.2 | 25.1 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 5.1 | |
| Metroscopia/El País[24] [25] | 4–5 May 2015 | 1,000 | 75.6 | 23.9 | 21.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 7.0 | – | 22.5 | 15.9 | 1.4 | |
| Intercampo/Podemos[26] [27] | 15–30 Apr 2015 | 1,800 | ? | 24.0– 28.0 | 19.0– 20.0 | 3.0– 5.0 | 2.0– 4.0 | 1.0– 3.0 | 1.0– 2.0 | 23.0– 26.0 | 19.0– 20.0 | 1.0– 2.0 | |
| GAD3/ABC[28] [29] [30] | 20–29 Apr 2015 | 1,000 | ? | 28.4 | 21.1 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 0.8 | 15.7 | 16.2 | 7.3 | |
| CIS[31] [32] | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | ? | 29.7 | 22.4 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 7.3 | |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[33] [34] | 6–17 Apr 2015 | 2,000 | ? | 28.0 | 20.9 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[35] [36] [37] | 20 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 550 | ? | 30.8 | 26.4 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.4 | |
| Llorente & Cuenca[38] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | ? | |
| 2014 EP election[39] | 25 May 2014 | 45.7 | 27.9 | 24.3 | – | 4.5 | 9.4 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.6 | ||
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[40] [41] [42] | 10 Mar–3 Apr 2014 | 2,000 | 56.0 | 31.2 | 29.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 8.5 | – | – | 1.6 | |
| NC Report/La Razón[43] [44] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | |
| NC Report/La Razón[45] [46] [47] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 300 | ? | 36.3 | 27.1 | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | 9.2 | |
| A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[48] [49] | 23 Apr 2013 | ? | 53.1 | 32.2 | 28.7 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 3.8 | – | – | 3.5 | |
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 71.0 | 47.7 | 31.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | – | – | 16.2 | ||||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 67.9 | 39.7 | 29.0 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | – | – | 10.7 | ||
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Lead | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 18.5 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 31.7 | 4.1 | |||
| CIS | 23 Mar–20 Apr 2015 | 1,586 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 37.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 | |
| 2014 EP election | 25 May 2014 | 12.9 | 11.2 | – | 2.1 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 53.1 | 1.7 | |||
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 34.1 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 4.1 | – | – | 27.4 | 11.6 | |||||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 27.2 | 19.8 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | – | – | 30.6 | 7.4 | |||
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| People's Party (PP) | 183,654 | 27.50 | –12.19 | 21 | –9 | ||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 143,096 | 21.43 | –7.59 | 18 | –4 | ||
| We Can (Podemos) | 137,325 | 20.56 | New | 14 | +14 | ||
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 62,907 | 9.42 | New | 5 | +5 | ||
| Aragonese Party (PAR) | 45,846 | 6.86 | –2.29 | 6 | –1 | ||
| Aragonese Union (CHA) | 30,618 | 4.58 | –3.65 | 2 | –2 | ||
| United Left of Aragon (IU) | 28,184 | 4.22 | –1.94 | 1 | –3 | ||
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 5,708 | 0.85 | –1.46 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank Seats (EB) | 5,323 | 0.80 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 4,946 | 0.74 | +0.42 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Commitment with Aragon (CCA) | 2,844 | 0.43 | –0.12 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Equo (Equo) | 1,256 | 0.19 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 1,082 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA) | 648 | 0.10 | –0.04 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 616 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Aragonese Bloc (BAR) | 581 | 0.09 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 13,224 | 1.98 | –1.21 | ||||
| Total | 667,858 | 67 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 667,858 | 98.70 | +0.20 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 8,796 | 1.30 | –0.20 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 676,654 | 66.33 | –1.57 | ||||
| Abstentions | 343,452 | 33.67 | +1.57 | ||||
| Registered voters | 1,020,106 | ||||||
| Sources[50] [51] | |||||||
| Constituency | PP | PSOE | Podemos | C's | PAR | CHA | IU | ||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| Huesca | 26.2 | 5 | 26.4 | 6 | 18.6 | 4 | 8.4 | 1 | 9.2 | 2 | 3.1 | − | 3.3 | − | |||||||||||||
| Teruel | 27.5 | 5 | 22.0 | 4 | 16.1 | 2 | 7.2 | 1 | 13.7 | 2 | 3.4 | − | 4.6 | − | |||||||||||||
| Zaragoza | 27.8 | 11 | 20.1 | 8 | 21.7 | 8 | 10.0 | 3 | 5.2 | 2 | 5.1 | 2 | 4.4 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Total | 27.5 | 21 | 21.4 | 18 | 20.6 | 14 | 9.4 | 5 | 6.9 | 6 | 4.6 | 2 | 4.2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Sources | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investiture Javier Lambán (PSOE) | |||
| Ballot → | 3 July 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 34 out of 67 | ||
| Abstentions | |||
| Absentees | |||
| Sources | |||