2014 Michigan gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2014 Michigan gubernatorial election
Country:Michigan
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Turnout:41.6% 1.3 [1]
Previous Election:2010 Michigan gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2018 Michigan gubernatorial election
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Image1:File:Rick Snyder in 2013.jpg
Nominee1:Rick Snyder
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Brian Calley
Popular Vote1:1,605,034
Percentage1:50.92%
Nominee2:Mark Schauer
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Lisa Brown
Popular Vote2:1,476,904
Percentage2:46.86%
Governor
Before Election:Rick Snyder
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Rick Snyder
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2014 Michigan gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections took place on August 5, 2014, in which Snyder and former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer were unopposed in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively.[2]

Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings.[3] [4] [5] [6] The consensus among The Cook Political Report,[7] Governing,[8] The Rothenberg Political Report,[9] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, suffered from a lack of name recognition.[11] [12] Despite having a more centrist voting record in the House of Representatives,[13] Schauer ran as more of a populist who put education, unions and taxes as his top priorities.[14]

Despite concerns about his approval rating hurting his chances at victory, Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote. As of, this was the last time a Republican won the governorship of Michigan. This is also the last time the Republican candidate won the counties of Kalamazoo, Oakland, Clinton, Macomb, Kent, Leelanau, and Isabella, and the last time the Democratic candidate won the counties of Alger, Baraga, and Manistee. As of, this is the last time that the winner of the Michigan gubernatorial election won a majority of Michigan's counties.

Republican primary

Polling indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election.[15] [16] [17] [18] This came in the midst of discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate.[15] [19] Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference[20] and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014.

In August 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri announced that he would challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for lieutenant governor.[21] [22] [23] At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20–22, 2013), speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley.[24] At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent lieutenant governor Brian Calley won renomination.[25]

On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin (who had originally declared his intention to run as a Democrat the previous November), announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination.[26] [27] He believed that his populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot.[2]

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Dave
Agema		Undecided
Harper PollingSeptember 4, 2013958±3.17% align=center64%16%20%
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%32.39% align=center42.34%25.27%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Mike
Bishop		Undecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08% align=center36.83%24.19% align=center38.98%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Keith
Butler		Undecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08% align=center38.98%11.29% align=center49.73%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Betsy
DeVos		Undecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08% align=center40.59%18.41% align=center40.99%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Gary
Glenn		Undecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08% align=center39.11%30.78%30.11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Pete
Hoekstra		Undecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08% align=center47.04%21.77%31.18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder		Bill
Schuette		Undecided
iCaucus MichiganAugust 26–30, 2013744± 4.08%31.85% align=center38.44%29.70%

Results

Democratic primary

Michigan Democratic Party leadership rallied support behind former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign.[32] Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for governor,[26] but he switched parties on January 3, 2014,[27] leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Schauer		Bob
King		Undecided
Mitchell ResearchMay 28, 2013361± 5.16%31% align=center38%31%

Results

Minor parties

Candidates

Libertarian Party

Running mate: Scott Boman, activist, former chairman of the Libertarian Party of Michigan and perennial candidate

Green Party

Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the state senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012

U.S. Taxpayers Party

Running mate: Richard Mendoza

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[49] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[50] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[51] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[52] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Mark
Schauer (D)		OtherUndecided
Mitchell ResearchNovember 3, 20141,310± 2.7% align=center48%47%3%[53] 2%
Mitchell ResearchNovember 2, 20141,224± 2.8%47%47%4%[54] 3%
Clarity Campaign LabsNovember 1–2, 20141,003± 3.08%45%45%—10%
Public Policy Pollingalign=center rowspan=2November 1–2, 2014align=center rowspan=2914align=center rowspan=2± 3.2% align=center46%45%4%[55] 5%
47%47%—5%
EPIC-MRAOctober 26–28, 2014600± 4% align=center45%43%3%9%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 27, 20141,159± 2.88% align=center48%43%3%[56] 5%
Glengariff GroupOctober 22–24, 2014600± 4% align=center45%40%5%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20142,394± 3%44% align=center45%1%11%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 20–22, 20141,000± 3% align=center49%46%2%3%
Public Policy PollingOctober 20–21, 2014723± ?48%48%—4%
Clarity Campaign LabsOctober 19–20, 20141,032± ?41% align=center44%—15%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 19, 2014919± 3.23% align=center48%46%3%3%
EPIC-MRAOctober 17–19, 2014600± 4% align=center47%39%3%11%
Clarity Campaign LabsOctober 12–14, 2014967± 3.16% align=center44%42%—13%
Clarity Campaign LabsOctober 11–13, 20141,032± ? align=center44%43%—13%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 12, 20141,340± 2.68% align=center47%44%3%6%
Mitchell ResearchOctober 9, 20141,306± 2.71% align=center47%46%4%[57] 3%
Glengariff GroupOctober 2–4, 2014600± 4% align=center45%37%3%[58] 15%
Public Policy PollingOctober 2–3, 2014654± 3.8% align=center47%46%—7%
Marketing Resource GroupSeptember 30–October 1, 2014600± 4% align=center46%41%4%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20–October 1, 20142,560± 2%44% align=center46%1%9%
Lake Research PartnersSeptember 27–30, 2014600± 4% align=center44%43%—12%
Mitchell ResearchSeptember 29, 20141,178± 2.86% align=center46%42%5%[59] 8%
EPIC-MRASeptember 25–29, 2014600± 4% align=center45%39%8%8%
Target-InsyghtSeptember 22–24, 2014616± 4%44% align=center45%—11%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 18–19, 2014852± 3.4% align=center46%44%—10%
We Ask AmericaSeptember 18–19, 20141,182± 3%43%43%4%10%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 17–18, 2014750± 4% align=center47%41%3%9%
Denno ResearchSeptember 11–13, 2014600± 4% align=center43%40%—17%
Mitchell ResearchSeptember 10, 2014829± 3.4% align=center46%41%7%[60] 6%
Suffolk September 6–10, 2014500± 4.4%43% align=center45%4%8%
Public Policy Pollingalign=center rowspan=2September 4–7, 2014align=center rowspan=2687align=center rowspan=2± 3.7% align=center43%42%6%[61] 9%
align=center46%44%—10%
Glengariff GroupSeptember 3–5, 2014600± 4% align=center44%42%3%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18–September 2, 20142,897± 3% align=center44%43%1%12%
Mitchell ResearchAugust 27, 20141,004± 3.09% align=center47%46%—7%
EPIC-MRAAugust 22–25, 2014600± 4%43% align=center45%—12%
Lake Research PartnersAugust 6–11, 2014800± 3.5% align=center46%38%—15%
Mitchell ResearchAugust 5, 2014626± 5% align=center47%42%—11%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 28–29, 2014750± 4% align=center45%42%5%8%
Marketing Resource GroupJuly 26–30, 2014600± 4% align=center45%44%—11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20143,812± 2.8% align=center46%43%1%9%
Mitchell ResearchJuly 7–17, 2014600± 4% align=center43%39%—17%
EPIC-MRAJuly 12–15, 2014600± 4% align=center46%43%—11%
Denno ResearchJuly 9–11, 2014600± 4% align=center43%35%—22%
NBC News/MaristJuly 7–10, 2014870± 3.3% align=center46%44%1%9%
Public Policy PollingJune 26–29, 2014578± 4.1%40%40%—20%
Mitchell ResearchJune 6, 2014961± 3.16% align=center46%41%—13%
Glengariff GroupMay 20–22, 2014600± 4.3% align=center45%35%—20%
EPIC-MRAMay 17–20, 2014600± 4% align=center47%38%—15%
Hickman AnalyticsApril 24–30, 2014502± 4.4% align=center48%37%—15%
Magellan StrategiesApril 14–15, 2014875± 3.31% align=center45%42%9%4%
Mitchell ResearchApril 9, 20141,460± 2.56% align=center49%37%—15%
Public Policy PollingApril 3–6, 2014825± 3.4% align=center43%39%—18%
Marketing Resource GroupMarch 24–28, 2014600± 4.1% align=center47%39%—14%
Denno ResearchMarch 9–10, 2014600± 4% align=center42%39%—20%
Benenson Strategy GroupMarch 4–7, 2014600± 4% align=center45%42%—9%
Public Opinion StrategiesMarch 2–4, 2014500± 4.4% align=center45%36%—19%
Clarity CampaignsFebruary 22–23, 2014859± 2.5540% align=center47%—12%
Target InsyghtFebruary 18–20, 2014600± ? align=center47%38%—15%
EPIC-MRAFebruary 5–11, 2014600± 4% align=center47%39%—14%
Harper PollingJanuary 7–8, 20141,004± 3.09% align=center47%35%—18%
Public Policy PollingDecember 5–8, 20131,034± 3% align=center44%40%—16%
Denno ResearchNovember 12–14, 2013600± 4% align=center45%31%—25%
Inside Michigan PoliticsOctober 29, 2013794± 4% align=center36%34%—30%
MRG/Mitchell ResearchOctober 6–10, 2013600± 4% align=center50%36%—14%
EPIC-MRASeptember 7–10, 2013600± 4% align=center44%36%—20%
Denno ResearchJuly 23–24, 2013600± 4% align=center43%37%—20%
Public Policy PollingMay 30–June 2, 2013697± 3.7%38% align=center42%—20%
EPIC-MRAMay 11–15, 2013600± 4%39%39%—22%
EPIC-MRAApril 13–16, 2013600± 4%38% align=center39%—23%
Public Policy PollingMarch 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%36% align=center40%—24%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39% align=center44%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Virg
Bernero (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%38% align=center43%19%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%38% align=center49%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Gary
Peters (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingMarch 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%37% align=center44%19%
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39% align=center47%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Bart
Stupak (D)		Undecided
EPIC-MRAApril 13–16, 2013600± 4% align=center39%38%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Gretchen
Whitmer (D)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingDecember 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%38% align=center46%16%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Snyder won 9 of 14 congressional districts.[62]

DistrictSnyderSchauerRepresentative
54.0%43.28%Dan Benishek
62.7%34.87%Bill Huizenga
60.6%37.18%Justin Amash
55.1%42.05%John Moolenaar
39.95%57.59%Dan Kildee
55.91%41.21%Fred Upton
54.37%43.29%Tim Walberg
58.07%39.99%
47.19%50.68%
59.08%38.42%Candice Miller
62.31%36.02%
41.27%56.53%
20.26%78.15%
27.52%71.43%

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics. October 6, 2019.
  2. Web site: 2014 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing . Miboecfr.nictusa.com . 2014-07-31 . 2014-08-04.
  3. News: Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups. Governing. July 18, 2013. February 26, 2014. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20130805052422/http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-handicapping-2013-2014-governors-races-tossups.html. August 5, 2013. mdy-all.
  4. News: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder raises $5M in 2013 for re-election bid. Daily Tribune. January 28, 2014. February 26, 2014.
  5. News: Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?. Five Thirty Eight. April 8, 2013. February 26, 2014.
  6. News: Michigan Governor Poll Shows Close Race Between Rick Snyder, Mark Schauer. The Huffington Post. Woods. Ashley. November 8, 2013. November 12, 2013.
  7. Web site: Ratings. September 6, 2013. March 5, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20130305115607/http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings. dead.
  8. Web site: Jacobson . Louis . Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups . Governing.com . July 18, 2013 . July 25, 2013 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130805052422/http://www.governing.com/blogs/politics/gov-handicapping-2013-2014-governors-races-tossups.html . August 5, 2013 . mdy-all .
  9. Web site: Ratings. September 6, 2013.
  10. Web site: Ratings. September 6, 2013.
  11. News: Poll: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, Democrat Mark Schauer in close race ahead of 2014. MLive Media Group. Oosting. Jonathan. December 10, 2013. December 29, 2013.
  12. News: Brian Dickerson: Can Schauer avoid the Tomb of the Unknown Front-Runner?. Detroit Free Press. Brian. Dickerson. August 28, 2014. August 28, 2014.
  13. Web site: Rep. Mark Schauer Former Representative for Michigan's 7th District.
  14. Web site: October 28, 2014. Old-style populism lives on in Michigan race.
  15. Web site: Snyder's approval rating gets boost from bankruptcy, Medicaid decisions. July 31, 2013. August 1, 2013.
  16. Web site: Poll says Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder vulnerable in a Republican primary. September 3, 2013. September 3, 2013.
  17. Web site: Snyder losing GOP support since Medicaid expansion. September 4, 2013. September 6, 2013.
  18. Web site: With Medicaid win, did Gov. Rick Snyder lose some Republicans? Tea party talks potential primary. September 5, 2013. September 6, 2013.
  19. Web site: Lt. Gov. Brian Calley on tea party challenger: 'We have a competition for ideas' in Republican Party. August 26, 2013.
  20. Web site: Snyder gets jump on 2014 election, launches TV, internet campaign ads. September 24, 2013.
  21. Web site: Tea party leader Wes Nakagiri wants to replace Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in 2014. August 26, 2013.
  22. Web site: Tim Skubick: Tea Party could be 2014 election headache for Gov. Rick Snyder. August 27, 2013.
  23. Web site: GOP poll says Livingston County's Nakagiri has shot at state's No. 2 post in 2014. September 5, 2013. September 6, 2013.
  24. Web site: Snyder gets top billing, but Calley in spotlight at Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. September 21, 2013.
  25. Web site: GOP chooses Calley over Nakagiri for lieutenant governor. Detroit Free Press. August 23, 2014. August 23, 2014. Paul. Egan.
  26. Web site: Off the Record – November 29, 2013 – # 4323. Off the Record – WKAR-TV. November 29, 2013. December 10, 2013.
  27. News: Michigan Political Points: 'Birther' Democrat goes Republican for primary against Gov. Rick Snyder. Oosting. Jonathan. MLive Media Group. January 3, 2014. January 8, 2014.
  28. Web site: It's official: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder launching re-election campaign with statewide tour. MLive Media Group. Oosting. Jonathan. January 30, 2014. January 30, 2014.
  29. Web site: Former Michigan GOP Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop: 'I'm not running for governor'. June 24, 2013. June 27, 2013.
  30. Web site: Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate. September 21, 2013. September 22, 2013. (subscription required)
  31. Web site: Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate. September 21, 2013. September 22, 2013. (transcribed from original source)
  32. Web site: Tim Skubick: Mark Schauer's announcement for governor seals the Democratic field. May 28, 2013.
  33. Web site: Democrat Mark Schauer to challenge Gov. Rick Snyder in 2014. May 28, 2013.
  34. Web site: Mark Schauer to announce Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown as running mate. April 2, 2014.
  35. Web site: Michigan Democrats rallying behind Mark Schauer for governor, with John Austin offering support. May 8, 2013. May 21, 2019.
  36. News: Democratic nomination for governor is now Mark Schauer's for the taking . Kathleen . Gray . . March 10, 2013.
  37. Web site: King Leads Schauer for Democratic Nomination. May 29, 2013. June 4, 2013.
  38. Web site: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014. March 20, 2013. March 21, 2013. mlive.com. Angela. Wittrock.
  39. Web site: Khalil . AlHajal . Tim Skubick: Mike Duggan's next step? Probably not a gubernatorial race . June 25, 2013 . MLive.com . 2014-01-08.
  40. News: Mark Hackel preparing for marriage, not a run for governor . . Chad . Selweski . January 17, 2013 . February 22, 2013 . May 30, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150530024059/http://www.macombdaily.com/article/20130117/NEWS01/130119388/mark-hackel-preparing-for-marriage-not-a-run-for-governor . dead .
  41. News: ?.
  42. Web site: Several Democrats may challenge Snyder in 2014. November 10, 2012. November 17, 2012. Detroit Free Press. Dawson. Bell.
  43. Web site: Tim Skubick: Bart Stupak's out... for now . . Tim . Skubick . April 15, 2013.
  44. Web site: Gretchen Whitmer says she won't run for governor in 2014 . January 30, 2013 . Detroit Free Press.
  45. Web site: Michigan Committee Statement of Organization . https://archive.today/20140718020902/http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cfr/com_det.cgi?com_id=517055 . dead . July 18, 2014 . May 17, 2014 . Michigan Secretary of State .
  46. News: Libertarians hold party convention in Howell . Lansing State Journal . May 17, 2014 . July 16, 2014 . dead . https://archive.today/20240527011350/https://www.webcitation.org/6PpCnUkV4?url=http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/article/20140517/NEWS02/305170018%3Fnclick_check=1 . May 27, 2024 .
  47. Web site: 2014 Unofficial Michigan General Candidate Listing . Miboecfr.nictusa.com . 2014-07-22 . 2014-08-04.
  48. Web site: Third party gubernatorial candidate Robin Sanders focuses on public safety. Current State on WKAR-FM. June 17, 2013. November 1, 2013.
  49. Web site: 2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 3, 2018.
  50. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 3, 2014 . September 3, 2018.
  51. Web site: 2014 Gubernatorial Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 3, 2018.
  52. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races . Real Clear Politics . September 3, 2018.
  53. Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  54. Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  55. Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0%
  56. Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 0%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  57. Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  58. Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  59. Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) <1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  60. Mary Buzuma (L) 4%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  61. Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  62. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index. The Cook Political Report.

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