2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election explained

Election Name:2014 Florida's 13th congressional district special election
Country:Florida
Type:by-election
Seats For Election:Florida's 13th congressional district
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2012#District 13
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2014#District 13
Next Year:2014
Election Date:March 11, 2014
Image1:File:David Jolly (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:David Jolly
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:89,167
Percentage1:48.5%
Nominee2:Alex Sink
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:85,673
Percentage2:46.6%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Bill Young
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:David Jolly
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

A special election for Florida's 13th congressional district was held March 11, 2014, to elect a member of the United States House of Representatives, following the death of incumbent Republican Congressman Bill Young on October 18, 2013.[1] Primary elections were held on January 14, 2014.[2] Young, who had already announced that he would not be running for re-election in 2014, was re-elected in 2012 with 57 percent of the vote.[3] With 100% of the precincts reporting, David Jolly was declared the winner.

Background

On October 9, 2013, Republican Bill Young, who had held this Tampa Bay-area district since 1971, announced that he would not run for re-election to a twenty-second term in 2014. He died nine days later and this special election was called to fill his seat. Though Young had been re-elected by wide margins, the district in recent years had become competitive. In the four most recent presidential elections, it was won by Al Gore over George W. Bush in 2000 51%-49%, by Bush with 51%-49% in 2004, by Barack Obama over John McCain 51%-47% and again carried by Obama in 2012 by a narrower 50%-49% over Mitt Romney. Given this, some political commentators and journalists viewed this election as a bellwether for the fall 2014 elections.[4] [5] While discounting the idea of special elections as bellwethers, political scientists agreed the result was a data point that public sentiment favored Republicans.[6]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Bircher		David
Jolly		Kathleen
Peters		Undecided
St. Pete Polls[20] January 9, 2014653± 3.8%26.3% align=center36.5%23.9%13.3%
Gravis Marketing[21] January 8, 2014976± 3%25% align=center34%28%14%
St. Pete Polls[22] December 30, 2013488± 4.4%17.7% align=center39.4%27.7%15.1%
St. Pete Polls[23] December 18, 2013660± 3.8%16.1% align=center34.9%30.2%18.9%
St. Pete Polls[24] December 3, 2013534± 4.2%17.2% align=center27.8%27.1% align=center28.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker		Neil
Brickfield		Larry
Crow		Frank
Hibbard		David
Jolly		Kathleen
Peters		Karen
Seel		OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[25] November 18, 2013582± 4.1%———— align=center39.2%17.3%—30.9%12.6%
St. Pete Polls[26] November 5, 2013498± 4.4%—16.8%—15% align=center18.7%—— align=center28.7% align=center20.8%
St. Pete Polls[27] October 15, 2013742± 3.6% align=center51%7%4%—2%—10%27%—

Results

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jessica
Ehrlich		Alex
Sink		OtherUndecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 2013367± 5.1%10.6% align=center69.6%10.7%9.1%
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 2013706± 3.7%20% align=center63%10%7%

General election

Candidates

One voter was confused by a website called "sinkforcongress2014" accepting donations to the National Republican Congressional Committee to defeat Sink and other Democrats, thinking it was a pro-Sink website. His $250 donation was refunded by the NRCC.[33]

Debates

David Jolly, Lucas Overby, and Alex Sink, the three candidates appearing on the ballot for the special election, took part in a televised debate on February 3, 2014. Held at the Seminole Campus of St. Petersburg College and co-hosted by the Tampa Bay Times and Bay News 9, the event aired live on C-SPAN 3. Al Ruechel, Adam Smith, and Amy Hollyfield served as moderators.[34] The debate can be viewed in its entirety here.

A non-scientific poll conducted after the debate by Bay News 9 indicated that overall viewers felt David Jolly had won with 37% of the vote, followed by Alex Sink with 33% and Lucas Overby with 30%.[35]

Campaign spending

During the campaign, OpenSecrets reported on February 13, 2014, that outside groups had spent $3.5 million on the election, with $2.6 million of that from groups that support Jolly. This makes it the most expensive election of the 2014 cycle so far and one of the most expensive special congressional elections in history.[36]

The Associated Press reports that $11 million total was spent as the Democratic Party poured money into the campaign in its final weeks. In the end, Sink outspent Jolly by 3 to 1 on television ads as well as outspending him overall.[37]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		David
Jolly (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Lucas
Overby (L)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[38] March 7–9, 2014702± 3.7%45% align=center48%6%2%
RedRacingHorses & PMI inc.[39] February 25–27, 2014391± 6% align=center46%44%5%5%
St. Pete Polls[40] February 25, 20141,269± 2.8%45.6% align=center45.9%6.4%2.1%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[41] February 17–18, 2014400± 4.9% align=center44%42%—14%
St. Pete Polls[42] February 12, 20141,130± 2.9% align=center46.2%44%6.6%2.4%
St. Leo University[43] February 9–11, 2014400± 5%37% align=center46%12%5%
Braun Research[44] February 4–9, 2014603± 4%35% align=center42%4%14%
DCCC[45] January 24, 2014527± 4.3%45% align=center49%—6%
McLaughlin & Associates[46] January 16–19, 2014400± 4.9% align=center43%38%4%15%
St. Pete Polls[47] January 15, 20141,278± 2.7% align=center47%42.8%4.4%5.9%
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 20131,128± 2.9%36.3% align=center49%5.6%8.8%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18, 20131,252± 2.8%34.9% align=center49.3%—15.7%
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 20131,079± 3%31% align=center51.5%—17.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker (R)		Jessica
Ehrlich (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 20131,741± 2.3% align=center34.6%30.7% align=center34.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Baker (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 20131,741± 2.3%34.0% align=center50.8%15.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Bircher (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 20131,128± 2.9%30.2% align=center50.4%12.1%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Neil
Brickfield (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 20131,079± 3%30.1% align=center51.2%18.8%
St. Pete PollsOctober 15, 20131,741± 2.3%24.0% align=center56.6%19.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Frank
Hibbard (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsNovember 5, 20131,079± 3%30.7% align=center51.6%17.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Kathleen
Peters (R)		Alex
Sink (D)		Undecided
St. Pete PollsDecember 3, 20131,128± 2.9%34.6% align=center47.7%12.2%
St. Pete PollsNovember 18, 20131,252± 2.8%30.7% align=center49.7%19.6%

Results

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Bill Young, longest-serving House Republican, dies . . Alex Isenstadt . October 18, 2013 . October 19, 2013.
  2. Web site: Florida House Special-Election Date Scheduled . . Abby Livingston . October 30, 2013 . October 30, 2013 . November 1, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131101185103/http://atr.rollcall.com/florida-house-special-election-date-scheduled/ . dead .
  3. Web site: November 6, 2012 General Election  - Official Results. Florida Department of State. October 19, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20131021004711/https://doe.dos.state.fl.us/elections/resultsarchive/Index.asp?ElectionDate=11%2F6%2F2012&DATAMODE=. October 21, 2013. dead. mdy-all.
  4. Kucinich, Jackie (November 22, 2013). In Fla., late Rep. Young’s purple-trending district will test waters for 2014 midterms. The Washington Post.
  5. https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/200409-drama-filled-florida-race-is-2014-bellwether/ The Hill
  6. Web site: The Limited Meaning of Florida's Special House Election . Larry J. Sabato . Kyle Kondik . Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2014.

    Web site: Why Florida's 13th District Special Election Is Still a Tossup . Nathan L. Gonzales . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 10, 2014.

    Web site: What Should We Read Into FL-13? Maybe Nothing. . Sean Trende . RealClearPolitics . March 11, 2014.

    Web site: Don't Read Too Much Into Result in Florida's 13th District . Harry Enten . FiveThirtyEight . March 12, 2014.

    Web site: A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin . Nate Silver . FiveThirtyEight . September 13, 2011.

  7. Web site: Rick Baker won't run for Young's seat, but David Jolly will. Tampa Bay Times . November 2, 2013 . November 2, 2013.
  8. News: State Rep. Peters files paperwork for Pinellas congressional seat, plans announcement for Tuesday . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 18, 2013.
  9. Web site: Safety Harbor Mayor Ayoub not running for Congress and so far not supporting GOP candidate David Jolly . November 13, 2012 . November 13, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131114121333/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/safety-harbor-mayor-ayoub-not-running-for-congress-and-so-far-not/2152243 . November 14, 2013 . dead .
  10. News: Former St. Pete mayor Rick Baker announcing he is NOT running for Congressional District 13 . SaintPetersBlog . Peter Schorsch . November 2, 2013.
  11. News: Former Pinellas Commissioner Brickfield will not run for Congress . Tampa Bay Times . Peter Schorsch . November 2, 2013.
  12. News: Who's in, who's out in race for Rep. C.W. Bill Young's seat . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 2, 2013 . November 3, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131104181313/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/whos-in-whos-out-in-race-for-rep-cw-bill-youngs-seat/2150531 . November 4, 2013 . live .
  13. News: Pinellas Sheriff Bob Gualtieri says no to congressional run . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 7, 2013.
  14. News: GOP's Gualtieri and Hibbard rule out campaign to replace Young in Congress . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 7, 2013.
  15. News: Tea Party loon, charity scammer Michael Pinson announces he won't run for Congress . SaintPetersBlog . Peter Schorsch . November 6, 2013 . November 7, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131108175327/http://www.saintpetersblog.com/tea-party-loon-charity-scammer-michael-pinson-announces-he-wont-run-for-congress . November 8, 2013 . dead .
  16. News: Pinellas Commissioner Karen Seel won't run for Congress . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 5, 2013 . November 5, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131108000755/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/pinellas-commissioner-karen-seel-wont-run-for-congress/2150915 . November 8, 2013 . dead .
  17. News: Bill Young, Jr. announces HE WILL NOT seek his father's congressional seat . SaintPetersBlog . Peter Schorsch . November 1, 2013.
  18. News: Tom Young won't run for his brother's seat in Congress . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 11, 2013 . November 12, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131113192351/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/tom-young-wont-run-for-his-brothers-seat-in-congress/2151927 . November 13, 2013 . live .
  19. News: CD 13 aspirant Nick Zoller tells me he won't run in special election; wants Beverly Young to complete term. SaintPetersBlog . Peter Schorsch . October 22, 2013.
  20. http://www.saintpetersblog.com/final-poll-of-gop-primary-in-cd-13-shows-david-jolly-well-ahead-kathleen-peters-slips-to-third St. Pete Polls
  21. http://gravismarketingblog.com/2014/01/10/florida-congressional-district-13-jolly-holds-lead-gravis-marketing-poll/ Gravis Marketing
  22. https://www.scribd.com/doc/194831804/Poll-of-GOP-primary-in-Congressional-District-13 St. Pete Polls
  23. http://stpetepolls.org/surveys/special_election_2014_CD13_20131218.html St. Pete Polls
  24. http://stpetepolls.org/surveys/special_election_2014_CD13_20131203.html St. Pete Polls
  25. http://stpetepolls.org/surveys/special_election_2014_CD13.html St. Pete Polls
  26. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2013_US_CD-13_November_5.pdf St. Pete Polls
  27. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2013_US_CD-13_October_15.pdf St. Pete Polls
  28. News: Alex Sink is running for C.W. Bill Young's congressional seat, will move to Pinellas . Tampa Bay Times . Adam C. Smith . October 30, 2013.
  29. News: Democrat Suspends Campaign Against Alex Sink in Florida District . Roll Call . Abby Livingston . November 6, 2013 . November 6, 2013 . November 10, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131110182442/http://atr.rollcall.com/democrat-suspends-campaign-against-alex-sink-in-florida-district/ . dead .
  30. Web site: Pinellas Commissioner Charlie Justice won't run for Young's seat, Libertarian Lucas Overby will . Tampa Bay Times . October 25, 2012 . October 25, 2013.
  31. News: Pinellas Commissioner Janet Long decides against running for Congress . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . October 28, 2013.
  32. News: Congressional candidate Jolly calls for replacing controversial flood insurance program . Tampa Bay Times . Curtis Krueger . November 20, 2013 . November 20, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140121143530/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/congressional-candidate-jolly-calls-for-replacing-controversial-flood/2153381 . January 21, 2014 . live .
  33. News: Campaign site misleads man into donating money against Sink. Tampa Bay Times. Alex. Leary. February 3, 2014. February 3, 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20140204071606/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/campaign-site-misleads-man-into-donating-money-against-alex-sink/2163901. February 4, 2014. live.
  34. Web site: Florida 13th District Debate, Feb 3 2014 - Video - C-SPAN.org. www.c-span.org.
  35. Web site: Who do you think did best at Monday night's Congressional debate?. Bay News 9. 9 February 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20140208221818/http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/ipolls.html. 8 February 2014. dead.
  36. Web site: Outside Spending Dominates in Florida, to Jolly's Benefit. OpenSecrets. 17 February 2014. 2014-02-13.
  37. Web site: Florida Special Election Results: David Jolly Wins House Seat In State's 13th District. Associated Press/Huffington Post. 11 March 2014. 2014-03-11.
  38. https://www.scribd.com/doc/211686403/FL-13-PPP-for-LCV-March-2014 Public Policy Polling
  39. http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/3608/rrh-fl13-poll RedRacingHorses & PMI inc.
  40. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2014_SaintPetersBlog_US_CD-13_February_25.pdf St. Pete Polls
  41. http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/gop-poll-david-jolly-alex-sink-neck-and-neck-in-florida-s-special-election-20140225 Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
  42. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2014_SaintPetersBlog_US_CD-13_February_12.pdf St. Pete Polls
  43. http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Florida-Survey-Poll-Results.pdf St. Leo University
  44. https://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/poll-slight-lead-for-sink-over-jolly-in-pinellas-congressional-race/2165327/ Braun Research
  45. https://www.scribd.com/doc/202900964/FL-13-Special-Poll-Memo DCCC
  46. https://web.archive.org/web/20140201213640/http://images.electionemail.com/client_id_40351/attachments/FL_CD_13__MEMO_1-20-14_%282%29.pdf McLaughlin & Associates
  47. https://www.scribd.com/doc/200097606/Poll-of-CD-13-General-Election St. Pete Polls

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