2014 Alaska gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
Country:	Alaska
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2010 Alaska gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2010
Next Election:	2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2018
Election Date:	November 4, 2014
Image1:	File:Bill Walker.jpg
Nominee1:	Bill Walker
Party1:	Independent
Alliance1:	Democratic
Running Mate1:	Byron Mallott
Popular Vote1:	134,658
Percentage1:	48.10%
Nominee2:	Sean Parnell
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:	Dan Sullivan
Popular Vote2:	128,435
Percentage2:	45.88%
Governor
Before Election:	Sean Parnell
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Bill Walker
After Party:	Independent politician

The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican governor Sean Parnell ran for re-election to a second full term in office, but incumbent lieutenant governor Mead Treadwell instead chose to run for the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014, to determine party nominees for the office, with separate primaries held for governor and lieutenant governor and the winners running together on the same ticket.

Parnell was renominated; his running mate was Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan.^[1] The Democrats nominated businessman and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund Byron Mallott, whose running mate was State Senator Hollis French. Also running as an independent was former Republican mayor of Valdez Bill Walker, whose running mate was Craig Fleener, the former deputy commissioner of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

On September 2, 2014, Walker and Mallott merged their campaigns to appear on the November ballot as a single independent ticket, which the Alaska Democratic Party endorsed. On this ticket, Walker ran for governor with Mallott as his running mate. Both candidates' former running mates withdrew.^[2] Parnell was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report, Governing, The Rothenberg Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Daily Kos Elections, and others was that the contest was a tossup. Former Republican governor Sarah Palin, who had praised Parnell as her successor when she resigned in 2009, endorsed Walker and Mallott, taking issue with Parnell's tax cuts for the oil and gas industry.

On November 7, Walker and Mallott held a 3,165-vote lead,^[3] which on November 11 had grown to 4,004 out of some 244,000 votes cast, or 1.6%.^[4] Walker began preparing for a transition but the race remained officially uncalled and Parnell refused to concede.^{[5] [6] [7] [8] [9]} On November 14, after Walker and Mallott extended their lead to 4,634 votes,^[10] multiple media outlets called the race.^{[11] [12]} Parnell conceded the following day.^[13] His loss – coupled with Democrat Mark Begich's defeat in the U.S. Senate election – marked just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which an incumbent governor and senator from different political parties were defeated in the same state in the same election cycle.^[14]

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Gerald L. "Tap" Heikes, minister, candidate for governor in 2006 and 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[15]
• Russ Millette, former chairman-elect of the Alaska Republican Party^[16]
• Sean Parnell, incumbent governor^[17]
• Brad Snowden, candidate for governor in 2002^[15]

Withdrew

• Bill Walker, former mayor of Valdez and candidate for governor in 2010 (ran as an independent)^{[18] [19]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell	Bill Walker	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[20]	July 25–28, 2013	507	± 4.4%	align=center	60%	22%	18%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Dan Sullivan, Mayor of Anchorage^[21]
• Kelly Wolf, Kenai Peninsula Borough Assemblyman and former state representative^[22]

Withdrew

• Lesil McGuire, state senator^{[23] [24]}

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Governor

Democratic candidates

Declared

• Byron Mallott, businessman, former mayor of Juneau, former president of the Alaska Federation of Natives and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund^[25]
• Phil Stoddard, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1984 and candidate for governor in 1986^[15]

Withdrew

• Hollis French, state senator and candidate for governor in 2010 (running for lieutenant governor)^[26]

Declined

• Ethan Berkowitz, former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006, for Congress in 2008 and governor in 2010^[27]
• Les Gara, state representative^[28]
• Scott McAdams, former mayor of Sitka and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[29]
• Bill Wielechowski, state senator^{[30] [31]}

Libertarian candidates

Declared

• Carolyn Clift, treasurer of the Alaska Libertarian Party^[15]

Results

Lieutenant governor

Democratic candidates

Declared

• Hollis French, state senator and candidate for governor in 2010^[26]
• Bob Williams, teacher^[32]

Libertarian candidates

Declared

• Andrew C. Lee, gold miner^[33]

Results

Others

Constitution Party

• J. R. Myers, founder and chairman of the Alaska Constitution Party^[34]

• Running mate: Maria Rensel^[35]

Independent

• Bill Walker, former mayor of Valdez and Republican candidate for governor in 2010^{[18] [19]}

• Running mate: Byron Mallott, businessman, former mayor of Juneau, former president of the Alaska Federation of Natives and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund

• Former running mate: Craig Fleener, former deputy commissioner of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game^[36]

General election

Campaign

Parnell drew criticism during his re-election campaign over his support of billions in tax reductions for the petrochemical industry as well an exploding scandal featuring five years of alleged cover ups with regard to rampant sexual abuse, cronyism, corruption and whistleblower suppression, in the Alaska National Guard.^{[37] [38] [39]}

In October 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Walker and Mallott. The endorsement was prompted by Parnell's oil and gas industry tax cuts, which dismantled her administration's "Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share" (ACES) plan. She had previously supported a referendum to repeal the tax cuts, which was narrowly defeated^[40] in August 2014. Walker and Mallott made the repeal of the tax cuts a centerpiece of their campaign.^[41]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 1, 2014 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[42]		November 3, 2014
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[43]		November 3, 2014
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[44]		November 3, 2014
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[45]		November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Byron Mallott (D)	Bill Walker (I)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[46]	November 1–2, 2014	1,052	± 3%	45%	—	align=center	46%	4%^[47]	5%
				47%	—	align=center	48%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[48]	October 27–30, 2014	887	± 4%	43%	—	align=center	50%	—	7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[49]	October 16–23, 2014	561	± 9%	align=center	42%	—	39%	0%	20%
Hellenthal & Associates^[50]	October 15–21, 2014	403	± 4.88%	align=center	44%	—	43%	5%^[51]	9%
Rasmussen Reports	October 8–12, 2014	700	± 4%	41%	—	align=center	50%	2%	7%
Fox News^[52]	October 4–7, 2014	706	± 3.5%	align=center	42%	—	37%	8%^[53]	13%
CNN/ORC^[54]	October 1–6, 2014	704 LV	± 3.5%	45%	—	align=center	51%	—	3%
		875 RV	± 3.4%	46%	—	align=center	49%	1%	5%
Hickman Analytics^[55]	September 26 – October 2, 2014	400	± 4.9%	align=center	46%	—	38%	7%^[56]	10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[57]	September 20 – October 1, 2014	593	± 5%	40%	—	align=center	45%	1%	14%
Rasmussen Reports	September 23–24, 2014	713	± 4%	42%	—	align=center	47%	5%	6%
Public Policy Polling^[58]	September 18–21, 2014	880	± 3.3%	41%	—	align=center	42%	5%^[59]	13%
				41%	—	align=center	45%	—	14%
Hays Research/AFL-CIO^[60]	September 13–14, 2014	500	± 4.38%	30%	—	align=center	37%	33%
Hays Research ^[61]	August 20–22, 2014	474	± 4.5%	40%	—	align=center	43%	—	15%
Rasmussen Reports	August 20–21, 2014	750	± 4%	align=center	47%	36%	—	11%	6%
Public Policy Polling^[62]	July 31 – August 1, 2014	673	± 3.8%	align=center	37%	22%	20%	5%^[63]	16%
				align=center	48%	37%	—	—	14%
				align=center	41%	—	40%	—	19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[64]	July 5–24, 2014	450	± 5.2%	align=center	55%	29%	—	6%	8%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	May 8–11, 2014	582	± 4.1%	align=center	37%	27%	17%	4%^[66]	15%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	January 30 – February 1, 2014	850	± 3.4%	align=center	41%	25%	16%	3%	15%

• * Internal poll for Bill Walker campaign

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Ethan Berkowitz (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 25–28, 2013	890	± 3.3%	align=center	51%	38%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 4–5, 2013	1,129	± 2.9%	align=center	50%	41%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Hollis French (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 25–28, 2013	890	± 3.3%	align=center	54%	33%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Les Gara (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 25–28, 2013	890	± 3.3%	align=center	53%	33%	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Scott McAdams (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 4–5, 2013	1,129	± 2.9%	align=center	52%	34%	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Mike Navarre (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 4–5, 2013	1,129	± 2.9%	align=center	51%	29%	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Joe Paskvan (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	February 4–5, 2013	1,129	± 2.9%	align=center	51%	25%	24%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Sean Parnell (R)	Bill	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	July 25–28, 2013	890	± 3.3%	align=center	52%	33%	15%

Results

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Independent

• Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
• Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
• Petersburg
• Valdez–Cordova Census Area (largest city: Valdez)
• Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
• Anchorage
• Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
• Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
• Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
• Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
• Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
• North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
• Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
• Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
• Juneau

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent

• Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
• Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
• Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
• Sitka
• Skagway
• Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
• Yakutat

See also

• 2014 United States elections
• 2014 United States gubernatorial elections

Elections in Alaska:

• 2014 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
• 2014 United States Senate election in Alaska

External links

• Alaska gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
• Byron Mallott for Governor
• J. R. Myers for Governor
• Sean Parnell for Governor incumbent
• Bill Walker for Governor

Notes and References

1. Not to be confused with former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan who ran as the Republican nominee in the U.S. Senate election which was held at the same time.
2. News: Walker, Mallott to join forces in governor's race. September 1, 2014. September 2, 2014. Alaska Dispatch News.
3. News: In governor's race, Walker has edge -- or maybe not. November 6, 2014. November 7, 2014. Alaska Dispatch News.
4. News: Highs, lows for campaigns as votes are tallied in Alaska election . November 11, 2014 . November 12, 2014 . Alaska Dispatch News.
5. News: Parnell says race isn't over as Walker moves ahead with transition planning. November 12, 2014. November 14, 2014. Alaska Dispatch News.
6. News: Governor's race uncalled; Walker plans transition. November 13, 2014. November 14, 2014. Alaska Journal.
7. News: Walker introduces co-chairs of transition team. November 12, 2014. November 14, 2014. Houston Chronicle.
8. Web site: Number of uncounted votes grows in Alaska U.S. Senate race. Alaska Dispatch News. November 7, 2014. November 7, 2014.
9. News: More than 50,000 votes remain to be counted in heated Alaska races . November 12, 2014 . November 10, 2014 . Alaska Dispatch News.
10. News: Friday vote count makes Walker victory in race for governor look certain . November 14, 2014 . November 15, 2014 . Alaska Dispatch News.
11. News: Alaska Governor Race: Incumbent Republican Sean Parnell Loses To Independent Bill Walker . November 14, 2014 . November 15, 2014 . The Huffington Post.
12. News: Unity ticket defeats Alaska GOP Gov. Sean Parnell in drawn-out race . November 14, 2014 . November 15, 2014 . Los Angeles Times.
13. Web site: Parnell concedes governor's race . Alaska Dispatch News . November 15, 2014 . November 27, 2014.
14. Web site: Mark Begich and Sean Parnell Join Small Group in Defeat . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier . November 19, 2014.
15. News: 2014 Primary Official Candidate List. June 4, 2014. Alaska Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20140630031311/http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ci_pg_cl_2014_prim.php. June 30, 2014. dead. mdy-all.
16. News: Ousted GOP leader plans run for governor . May 23, 2014 . May 25, 2014 . . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140526072513/http://www.adn.com/2014/05/23/3482968/ousted-gop-leader-plans-run-for.html . May 26, 2014 .
17. Web site: Forgey, Pat . Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell to seek re-election in 2014 . Alaska Dispatch . 2013-05-04 . 2013-10-16 .
18. Web site: Walker announces 2014 run for Alaska governor . April 25, 2013 . April 26, 2013 . Anchorage Daily News . Mark . Thiessen . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130429132359/http://www.adn.com/2013/04/25/2878908/walker-announces-run-for-alaska.html . April 29, 2013 .
19. Web site: Walker planning to run as independent for Alaska governor. August 1, 2013. August 5, 2013. Newsminer.
20. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_073013.pdf Public Policy Polling
21. Web site: Anchorage Mayor Not Running in Alaska Senate Race. May 23, 2013. May 25, 2013. The Rothenberg Political Report. Nathan L.. Gonzales.
22. Web site: Assembly Member Running for Lieutenant Governor. June 2, 2014. May 16, 2014. Anchorage Daily News.
23. Web site: McGuire files to run for lieutenant governor . June 5, 2013 . June 10, 2013 . . Kyle . Hopkins . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130609163114/http://www.adn.com/2013/06/05/2928145/mcguire-files-to-run-for-lieutenant.html . June 9, 2013 .
24. Web site: McGuire withdraws from lieutenant governor race just before filing deadline . June 2, 2014 . June 4, 2014 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140606203448/http://www.adn.com/2014/06/02/3498565/mcguire-withdraws-from-lieutenant.html?sp=%2F99%2F100%2F&ihp=1 . June 6, 2014 .
25. News: Byron Mallot announces decision to run for Alaska governor. September 3, 2013. September 3, 2013. Alaska Dispatch. Alex. DeMarban. December 14, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20131214012930/http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130903/byron-mallott-announces-decision-run-alaska-governor. dead.
26. News: Hollis French Swaps Roles, 2014 Gubernatorial Field Likely Set.. October 16, 2013. November 5, 2013. Alaska Commons. John Aronno.
27. News: Treadwell ramps up for Senate after Parnell announcement. May 6, 2013. May 8, 2013. Juneau Empire. Mark D.. Miller. https://web.archive.org/web/20130607154902/http://juneauempire.com/state/2013-05-06/treadwell-ramps-senate-after-parnell-announcement#.UYpBVLXvvqo. June 7, 2013. dead.
28. News: Gara decides to seek re-election to Alaska House . August 22, 2013 . August 23, 2013 . Associated Press . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130831171312/http://www.adn.com/2013/08/22/3037328/gara-decides-to-seek-re-election.html . August 31, 2013 .
29. News: Caldwell, Suzanna . Less is more as former Senate candidate Scott McAdams sheds 100 pounds . Alaska Dispatch . 2013-04-03 . 2013-10-16 . October 16, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131016065543/http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130403/less-more-former-senate-candidate-scott-mcadams-sheds-100-pounds . dead .
30. News: Wielechowski taking look at governor's race. May 29, 2013. May 30, 2013. Associated Press. News Miner.
31. Web site: Ten Observations About 2014 Candidates . . June 3, 2014 . June 4, 2014 . Scott Rhode.
32. Web site: Sen. Lesil McGuire withdrawing from lieutenant gov's race . KTOO . June 3, 2014 . June 4, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140607011042/http://www.ktoo.org/2014/06/03/sen-lesil-mcguire-withdrawing-lieutenant-govs-race/ . June 7, 2014 .
33. Web site: Loose Lips: Establishment finds its West Anchorage candidate, drafting Palin, Gattis nabs Bickford . Amanda Coyne . May 20, 2014 . June 4, 2014.
34. Web site: Redlich, Warren. Constitution Party Candidate for Alaska . Independent Political Report . 2013-10-01 . 2013-10-16.
35. News: November 4, 2014 General Election Candidate List. August 22, 2014. Alaska Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20140820200902/http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ci_pg_cl_2014_genr.php. August 20, 2014. dead. mdy-all.
36. Web site: Walker chooses Fleener as running mate in independent bid for governor. October 14, 2013. July 24, 2014. Alaska Dispatch News. Lisa. Demer.
37. http://www.adn.com/article/20141002/parnell-defends-handling-alaska-national-guard-dysfunction-plans-more-firings Parnell defends handling alaska national guard dysfunction, plans more firings
38. http://www.adn.com/article/20141001/parnell-waited-years-take-direct-action-national-guard-misconduct Parnell waited years to take direct action on National Guard misconduct
39. http://www.ktuu.com/news/news/anchorage-sb21-debate-draws-standingroomonly-crowd/27122724 Debate draws standing-room-only crowd
40. http://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Oil_Tax_Cuts_Veto_Referendum,_Ballot_Measure_1_(August_2014) narrowly defeated
41. News: Palin Endorses Independent-Democratic Ticket for Alaska Governor Against GOP Successor . National Journal . October 23, 2014 . October 24, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20141024003923/http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/palin-endorses-independent-democratic-ticket-for-alaska-governor-against-gop-successor-20141023 . October 24, 2014 . mdy .
42. Web site: 2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 4, 2018.
43. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 3, 2014 . September 4, 2018.
44. Web site: 2014 Gubernatorial Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 4, 2018.
45. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races . Real Clear Politics . September 4, 2018.
46. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/AKResults.pdf Public Policy Polling
47. Carolyn Clift (L) 2%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
48. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/alaska/election_2014_alaska_governor Rasmussen Reports
49. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/09/governor-races-headline-results/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
50. https://www.scribd.com/doc/244305469/AK-Sen-AK-Gov-Hellenthal-Associates-Oct-2014 Hellenthal & Associates
51. Carolyn Clift (L) 4%, J.R. Myers (I) 1%
52. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/08/fox-news-poll-sullivan-has-44-40-percent-advantage-over-begich-in-alaska/ Fox News
53. Carolyn Clift (L) 4%, J.R. Myers (I) 1%, Other 3%
54. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/10/08/aksenaterace.pdf CNN/ORC
55. https://web.archive.org/web/20141019233602/http://consumerenergyalliance.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/AK-Topline-Tables-Release.pdf Hickman Analytics
56. Carolyn Clift (L) 5%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
57. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/09/governor-races-headline-results CBS News/NYT/YouGov
58. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_923925.pdf Public Policy Polling
59. Carolyn Clift (L) 3%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
60. https://www.scribd.com/doc/239975371/AK-Sen-AK-Gov-for-AFL-CIO-Sept-2014 Hays Research/AFL-CIO
61. http://amandacoyne.com/politics/new-poll-has-walker-beating-parnell-in-2-way-governors-race/ Hays Research*
62. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_8051205.pdf Public Policy Polling
63. Carolyn Clift (L) 3%, J.R. Myers (C) 2%
64. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
65. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_513.pdf Public Policy Polling
66. J.R. Myers (C)
67. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AK_204.pdf Public Policy Polling
68. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_020713.pdf Public Policy Polling