| Election Name: | 2013 Lower Saxony state election |
| Country: | Lower Saxony |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2008 Lower Saxony state election |
| Previous Year: | 2008 |
| Next Election: | 2017 Lower Saxony state election |
| Next Year: | 2017 |
| Seats For Election: | All 137 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony |
| Majority Seats: | 69 |
| Election Date: | 20 January 2013 |
| Turnout: | 3,574,900 (59.4%) 2.4% |
| Leader1: | David McAllister |
| Party1: | Christian Democratic Union of Germany |
| Last Election1: | 68 seats, 42.5% |
| Seats1: | 54 |
| Seat Change1: | 14 |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,287,549 |
| Percentage1: | 36.0% |
| Swing1: | 6.5% |
| Leader2: | Stephan Weil |
| Party2: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| Last Election2: | 48 seats, 30.3% |
| Seats2: | 49 |
| Seat Change2: | 1 |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,165,538 |
| Percentage2: | 32.6% |
| Swing2: | 2.3% |
| Image3: | |
| Leader3: | Anja Piel &<br>Stefan Wenzel |
| Party3: | Alliance 90/The Greens |
| Seats3: | 20 |
| Seat Change3: | 8 |
| Popular Vote3: | 489,473 |
| Percentage3: | 13.7% |
| Swing3: | 5.7% |
| Leader4: | Stefan Birkner |
| Party4: | Free Democratic Party (Germany) |
| Last Election4: | 13 seats, 8.2% |
| Seats4: | 14 |
| Seat Change4: | 1 |
| Popular Vote4: | 354,970 |
| Percentage4: | 9.9% |
| Swing4: | 1.7% |
| Leader5: | Manfred Sohn |
| Party5: | The Left (Germany) |
| Last Election5: | 11 seats, 7.1% |
| Seats5: | 0 |
| Seat Change5: | 11 |
| Popular Vote5: | 112,212 |
| Percentage5: | 3.1% |
| Swing5: | 4.0% |
| Map Size: | 400px |
| Minister-President | |
| Before Election: | David McAllister |
| Before Party: | Christian Democratic Union of Germany |
| After Election: | Stephan Weil |
| After Party: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
The 2013 Lower Saxony state election was held on 20 January 2013 to elect the members of the 17th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President David McAllister was defeated. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) formed a government with The Greens which held a slim, one-seat majority. Stephan Weil was subsequently elected Minister-President.[1]
The CDU–FDP coalition had governed since the 2003. In the 2008 state election, the SPD under Wolfgang Jüttner lost more than three percentage points, suffering its worst ever result in Lower Saxony. The FDP retained their status as the third strongest party, leading the Greens by just 0.2%. The Left won 7.1 percent of the vote, crossing the electoral threshold and winning seats for the first time.
Most polls taken in early 2012 showed a SPD–Green majority. However, in the lead-up to the election, polls tightened, with the CDU–FDP coalition virtually neck and neck with the SPD–Green coalition. Polling suggested that the FDP's vote could be very close to 5%, which led some officials in the CDU to suggest tactically voting FDP to ensure it met the threshold.[1]
Before the election, the SPD and Greens announced their plan to govern and campaign together. The CDU acted independently of the FDP during the campaign, but sought to continue the incumbent coalition. If a CDU–FDP coalition could not be formed, the CDU stated that the SPD would be their second choice. However, the SPD itself rejected the idea of a grand coalition.[1]
The system used was Mixed-member proportional representation. The results in the electoral districts were determined using FPTP and the overall result using the D'Hondt method.[2]
The table below lists parties represented in the 16th Landtag of Lower Saxony.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2008 result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||
| bgcolor= | CDU | Christian Democratic Union of Germany | Christian democracy | David McAllister | 42.5% | |||
| bgcolor= | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany | Social democracy | Stephan Weil | 30.3% | |||
| bgcolor= | FDP | Free Democratic Party | Classical liberalism | Stefan Birkner | 8.2% | |||
| bgcolor= | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens | Green politics | Anja Piel Stefan Wenzel | 8.0% | |||
| bgcolor= | Linke | The Left | Democratic socialism | Manfred Sohn | 7.1% | |||
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CDU | SPD | FDP | Grüne | Linke | Piraten | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 state election | data-sort-value="2013-01-20" | 20 Jan 2013 | – | 36.0 | 32.6 | 9.9 | 13.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.4 | |
| GMS | data-sort-value="2013-01-17" | 14–16 Jan 2013 | 1,006 | 41 | 33 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| INFO GmbH | data-sort-value="2013-01-12" | 2–6 Jan 2013 | 1,002 | 38.0 | 31.5 | 4.5 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 6.5 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2013-01-10" | 8–10 Jan 2013 | 1,001 | 40 | 33 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| GMS | data-sort-value="2013-01-10" | 7–9 Jan 2013 | 1,007 | 41 | 33 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2013-01-10" | 7–9 Jan 2013 | 1,040 | 39 | 33 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2013-01-03" | 28 Dec 2012–2 Jan 2013 | 1,000 | 40 | 34 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| INFO GmbH | data-sort-value="2012-12-22" | 7–14 Dec 2012 | 1,001 | 38.5 | 33.0 | 3.5 | 12.5 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.5 | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2012-12-06" | 3–5 Dec 2012 | 1,043 | 39 | 32 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2012-12-06" | 30 Nov–4 Dec 2012 | 1,000 | 40 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| GMS | data-sort-value="2012-12-04" | 28–30 Nov 2012 | 1,006 | 41 | 32 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2012-11-08" | 2–6 Nov 2012 | 1,003 | 41 | 34 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2012-09-20" | 17–19 Sep 2012 | 1,003 | 37 | 33 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| GMS | data-sort-value="2012-09-20" | 10–14 Sep 2012 | 1,002 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2012-07-24" | 11–20 Jul 2012 | 1,108 | 38 | 33 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 5 | |
| YouGov | data-sort-value="2012-07-19" | 5–13 Jul 2012 | 1,025 | 31 | 35 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 4 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2012-05-16" | 14–15 May 2012 | 1,005 | 32 | 36 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 | |
| GMS | data-sort-value="2012-05-16" | 16–19 Apr 2012 | 1,005 | 37 | 33 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 4 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2012-01-25" | 20–24 Jan 2012 | 1,001 | 36 | 32 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | |
| GMS | data-sort-value="2012-05-16" | 10–14 Jan 2012 | 1,003 | 37 | 33 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2011-05-06" | 2–4 May 2011 | 1,000 | 34 | 31 | 5 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2010-01-15" | 7–11 Jan 2010 | 1,000 | 41 | 29 | 9 | 11 | 6 | – | 4 | 12 | |
| 2008 state election | data-sort-value="2008-01-27" | 27 Jan 2008 | – | 42.5 | 30.3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | – | 3.9 | 12.2 |
|-|colspan="12"| |-! colspan="2" | Party! Votes! %! +/-! Constituencies! List seats! Total seats ! +/-! Total seats %|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Christian Democratic Union (CDU)| align=right| 1,287,549| align=right| 36.0| align=right| 6.5| align=right| 54| align=right| 0| align=right| 54| align=right| 14| align=right| 39.4|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Social Democratic Party (SPD)| align=right| 1,165,419| align=right| 32.6| align=right| 2.3| align=right| 33| align=right| 16| align=right| 49| align=right| 1| align=right| 35.8|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)| align=right| 489,473| align=right| 13.7| align=right| 5.7| align=right| 0| align=right| 20| align=right| 20| align=right| 8| align=right| 14.6|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Free Democratic Party (FDP)| align=right| 354,970| align=right| 9.9| align=right| 1.7| align=right| 0| align=right| 14| align=right| 14| align=right| 1| align=right| 10.2|-! colspan=8||-| bgcolor=| | align=left | The Left (Linke)| align=right| 112,212| align=right| 3.1| align=right| 4.0| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| 11| align=right| 0|-| bgcolor=| | align=left | Pirate Party Germany (Piraten)| align=right| 75,603| align=right| 2.1| align=right| 2.1| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| ±0| align=right| 0|-| | align=left | Free Voters (FW)| align=right| 39,714| align=right| 1.1| align=right| 0.6| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| ±0| align=right| 0|-| bgcolor=|| align=left | Others| align=right| 49,960| align=right| 1.4| align=right| | align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| 0| align=right| ±0| align=right| 0|-! align=right colspan=2| Total! align=right| 3,574,900! align=right| 100.0! align=right| ! align=right| 87! align=right| 50! align=right| 137! align=right| 15! align=right| |-! align=right colspan=2| Voter turnout! align=right| ! align=right| 59.4! align=right| 2.4 ! colspan="5"||-| colspan="12"| Lower Saxon Returning Officer|-|}