2012 Washington gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2012 Washington gubernatorial election
Country:Washington
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 Washington gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2016 Washington gubernatorial election
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Jay Inslee Official Photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Jay Inslee
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,582,802
Percentage1:51.54%
Nominee2:Rob McKenna
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,488,245
Percentage2:48.46%
Map Size:275px
Governor
Before Election:Christine Gregoire
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jay Inslee
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 Washington gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012.[1] Candidates in the election were chosen in an August 7, 2012[2] primary election, under the state's nonpartisan blanket primary system, which allows voters to vote for any candidate running in the race, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who received the most votes in the primary election qualified for the general election.[3]

Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire decided to retire rather than seek a third term.[4] She endorsed fellow Democrat Jay Inslee, a U.S. Congressman, as her successor. On March 20, 2012, Inslee resigned from Congress in order to focus on his gubernatorial campaign.[5]

Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna, the Attorney General of Washington, advanced to the general election. Inslee narrowly won the election, and McKenna conceded three days later.[6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Declined

Republican candidates

Declined

Independent candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[19] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[21] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[22] November 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
width=100pxJay
Inslee (D)
width=100pxRob
McKenna (R)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 1–3, 2012932± 3.2% align=center50%48%2%
KING5/SurveyUSAOctober 28–31, 2012555± 4.2% align=center47%46%7%
KCTS 9/Washington PollOctober 18–31, 2012632± 3.9% align=center49%46%6%
Elway PollOctober 18–21, 2012451± 4.5%45% align=center47%10%
Strategies360October 17–20, 2012500± 4.4%45%45%10%
Public Policy Polling/WCVOctober 15–16, 2012574± n/a% align=center48%42%10%
KCTS 9/Washington PollOctober 1–16, 2012782± 3.5% align=center48%45%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 14, 2012500± 4.5% align=center47%45%9%
SurveyUSAOctober 12–14, 2012543± 4.3% align=center47%44%9%
SurveyUSASeptember 28–30, 2012540± 4.3% align=center48%42%10%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 26, 2012500± 4.5% align=center46%45%9%
Public Elway PollSeptember 9–12, 2012405± 5% align=center44%41%15%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 7–9, 2012563± 4.2% align=center48%42%10%
Survey USASeptember 7–9, 2012524± 4.4% align=center49%44%7%
Survey USAAugust 2–3, 2012524± 4.4% align=center48%45%7%
Elway PollJuly 18–22, 2012405± 5.0% align=center43%36%21%
Survey USAJuly 16–17, 2012630± 4.0%41% align=center42%16%
Public Policy PollingJune 14–17, 20121,073± 3.0%40% align=center43%17%
Elway PollJune 13–16, 2012408± 5.0%40% align=center42%18%
Strategies360May 22–24, 2012500± 4.4%39% align=center43%18%
Survey USAMay 8–9, 2012557± 4.2%38% align=center40%22%
Grove Insights (D)March 26–28, 2012500± 4.4% align=center38%34%28%
Grove Insights (D)February 21–23, 2012500± 4.4%38%38%24%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 16–19, 20121,264± 2.8%42%42%16%
Survey USAFebruary 13–15, 2012572± 4.2%39% align=center49%12%
Elway PollFebruary 7–9, 2012405± 5.0%36% align=center45%19%
Survey USAJanuary 12–16, 2012617± 4.0%43% align=center46%11%
Survey USANovember 21–23, 2011549± 4.3%38% align=center44%17%
Washington PollOctober 10–30, 2011938± 3.2%38% align=center44%18%
Survey USASeptember 21–22, 2011529± 4.3%38% align=center44%18%
Survey USAJune 24–26, 2011600± 4.4% align=center47%44%9%
Public Policy PollingMay 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0%38% align=center40%22%
Survey USAApril 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%41% align=center48%11%
Christine Gregoire vs. Rob McKenna
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
width=100pxChristine
Gregoire (D)
width=100pxRob
McKenna (R)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0%40% align=center49%11%
Survey USAApril 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%40% align=center52%7%
Christine Gregoire vs. Dave Reichert
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
width=100pxChristine
Gregoire (D)
width=100pxDave
Reichert (R)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0% align=center45%41%14%
Survey USAApril 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%44% align=center48%8%
Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
width=100pxJay
Inslee (D)
width=100pxDave
Reichert (R)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingMay 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0% align=center42%36%22%
Survey USAApril 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%44% align=center46%10%
Lisa Brown vs. Rob McKenna
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
Margin of
error
width=100pxLisa
Brown (D)
width=100pxRob
McKenna (R)
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJuly 27-August 1, 20101,204± 2.8%29% align=center47%24%

Results

The race was close throughout the night, with results too close to call after 60 percent of ballots were cast.[23] Inslee was declared the winner early in the morning three days later; McKenna conceded later in the evening.[24]

Inslee won only eight of the state's 39 counties, relying on heavy votes from the Seattle metropolitan area pushing him to victory.[25]

Results by county

County[26] Jay Inslee
Democratic
Rob McKenna
Republican
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%
Adams1,40829.78%3,32070.22%-1,912-40.44%4,728
Asotin4,02741.50%5,67758.50%-1,650-17.00%9,704
Benton27,29134.97%50,75765.03%-23,466-30.07%78,048
Chelan11,61636.41%20,29163.59%-8,675-27.19%31,907
Clallam17,51646.66%20,02153.34%-2,505-6.67%37,537
Clark86,73246.92%98,13153.08%-11,399-6.17%184,863
Columbia65629.54%1,56570.46%-909-40.93%2,221
Cowlitz21,05148.21%22,61251.79%-1,561-3.58%43,663
Douglas4,74631.88%10,13968.12%-5,393-36.23%14,885
Ferry1,29937.98%2,12162.02%-822-24.04%3,420
Franklin8,18136.50%14,23263.50%-6,051-27.00%22,413
Garfield33326.58%92073.42%-587-46.85%1,253
Grant8,65431.59%18,74268.41%-10,088-36.82%27,396
Grays Harbor14,49150.90%13,97849.10%5131.80%28,469
Island19,32446.67%22,08253.33%-2,758-6.66%41,406
Jefferson12,17662.29%7,37037.71%4,80624.59%19,546
King590,87962.36%356,71337.64%234,16624.71%947,592
Kitsap60,57849.72%61,26150.28%-683-0.56%121,839
Kittitas7,13739.90%10,75260.10%-3,615-20.21%17,889
Klickitat4,44244.07%5,63855.93%-1,196-11.87%10,080
Lewis11,86535.03%22,00264.97%-10,137-29.93%33,867
Lincoln1,71629.57%4,08870.43%-2,372-40.87%5,804
Mason13,17547.25%14,70852.75%-1,533-5.50%27,883
Okanogan6,75940.55%9,90959.45%-3,150-18.90%16,668
Pacific5,37951.73%5,02048.27%3593.45%10,399
Pend Oreille2,44237.06%4,14862.94%-1,706-25.89%6,590
Pierce164,21148.54%174,07851.46%-9,867-2.92%338,289
San Juan6,76364.82%3,67135.18%3,09229.63%10,434
Skagit25,87847.33%28,80352.67%-2,925-5.35%54,681
Skamania2,43445.92%2,86754.08%-433-8.17%5,301
Snohomish166,45251.23%158,44048.77%8,0122.47%324,892
Spokane95,35443.49%123,89456.51%-28,540-13.02%219,248
Stevens7,42633.79%14,55466.21%-7,128-32.43%21,980
Thurston67,35353.75%57,94846.25%9,4057.51%125,301
Wahkiakum96442.83%1,28757.17%-323-14.35%2,251
Walla Walla9,35338.03%15,23861.97%-5,885-23.93%24,591
Whatcom53,59953.10%47,34046.90%6,2596.20%100,939
Whitman7,35143.83%9,42156.17%-2,070-12.34%16,772
Yakima31,79141.67%44,50758.33%-12,716-16.67%76,298
Totals1,582,80251.54%1,488,24548.46%94,5573.08%3,071,047

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Inslee won 5 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 5 going to McKenna, including one that elected a Democrat.[27]

DistrictInsleeMcKennaRepresentative
48%52%Suzan DelBene
54%46%Rick Larsen
46%54%Jaime Herrera Beutler
37%63%Doc Hastings
42%58%Cathy McMorris Rodgers
51%49%Norm Dicks
Derek Kilmer
74%26%Jim McDermott
43%57%Dave Reichert
61%39%Adam Smith
51%49%Denny Heck

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Washington's 2012 elections. Balletopedia - The Encyclopedia of American Politics. Balletopedia. 28 June 2017. 8 May 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170508205934/https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_gubernatorial_election,_2012. live.
  2. Web site: RCW 29a.04.311: Primaries.. apps.leg.wa.gov. 2011-07-02. 2011-08-13. https://web.archive.org/web/20110813074429/http://apps.leg.wa.gov/rcw/default.aspx?cite=29A.04.311. live.
  3. http://wei.secstate.wa.gov/osos/en/Pages/Top2PrimaryFAQ.aspx Pages - Top 2 Primary
  4. News: 2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire. June 13, 2011. June 13, 2011. The Seattle Times. Andrew. Garber. June 16, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110616090459/http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2015308479_gregoire14m.html. live.
  5. News: Grygiel. Chris. US Rep. Inslee to resign for Wash. gov. race. The News Tribune. March 10, 2012. Associated Press.
  6. News: Brunner. Jim. McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor. The Seattle Times. November 10, 2012. November 11, 2012. November 12, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20121112013016/http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html. live.
  7. http://www.rollcall.com/news/Candidates-Washington-State-1st-District-Inslee-Seat-206805-1.html "Inslee Announcement Prompts More Democratic Interest"
  8. http://www.theolympian.com/2011/06/28/1704768/lisa-brown-endorses-inslee-for.html "Lisa Brown endorses Inslee"
  9. Web site: Inslee Running for Gov; Constantine Cheers Him on Facebook - PubliCola. https://web.archive.org/web/20110630131330/http://publicola.com/2011/06/27/inslee-running-for-gov-constanine-cheers-him-on-facebook/. dead. 30 June 2011. 30 June 2011. 29 June 2011. dmy-all.
  10. http://www.theolympian.com/2011/06/12/1684212/2012-races-take-shape.html 2012 races take shape - Elections - The Olympian
  11. Web site: Aaron Reardon says he has no plans to run for governor or Congress. October 19, 2011. October 21, 2011. The Herald (Everett). Noah. Haglund. October 22, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20111022021814/http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20111019/NEWS01/710199814. live.
  12. http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/06/sims-quits-hud.php Sims Quits HUD Post, Hotline On Call
  13. News: Brian Sonntag will not run for governor. The Seattle Times. Andrew. Garber. July 5, 2011. July 5, 2011. July 9, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110709021430/http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2015513343_brian_sonntag_will_not_run_for.html. live.
  14. Web site: State auditor Brian Sonntag makes decision on governor's race-KING5.com Seattle. 2011-07-05. 2011-07-28. https://web.archive.org/web/20110728102310/http://www.king5.com/news/local/State-auditor-Brian-Sonntag-makes-decision-on-governors-race-125005454.html. live.
  15. Web site: Everett pastor enters governor race. August 9, 2011. August 16, 2011. The Herald (Everett). Jerry. Cornfield. August 10, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120810035146/http://heraldnet.com/article/20110809/NEWS01/708099840. live.
  16. News: McKenna launches campaign for governor. The Seattle Times. Jim. Brunner. June 8, 2011.
  17. News: Reichert: I'll support McKenna for governor. Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Joel. Connelly. June 8, 2011. June 10, 2011. June 10, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110610193636/http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2011/06/08/reichert-ill-support-mckenna/#more-9502. live.
  18. Web site: Sultan man declares 2012 governor bid. November 19, 2009. October 12, 2011. The Herald (Everett). Andy. Rathbun. July 28, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120728070644/http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20091119/NEWS01/711199929. live.
  19. Web site: 2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201051359/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/governor-race-ratings/139101 . live .
  20. Web site: PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201094552/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/ . live .
  21. Web site: 2012 Gubernatorial Ratings . Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201051247/http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2012-gubernatorial-ratings-november-2-2012 . live .
  22. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201051422/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/governor/2012_elections_governor_map.html . live .
  23. News: November 6, 2012 . Inslee vs. McKenna could drag on . The Seattle Times . August 25, 2016 . October 6, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161006094537/http://old.seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019614378_localraces06m.html . live .
  24. News: Brunner . Jim . November 9, 2012 . McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor . The Seattle Times . August 25, 2016 . October 6, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161006091533/http://old.seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019648697_govrace10m.html . live .
  25. News: Johnson . Kirk . November 28, 2012 . In West's 'Democratopolis,' Winning an Election With Only 8 of 39 Counties . A22 . . August 25, 2016 . March 2, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170302181204/http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/28/us/politics/in-washington-state-victory-with-8-of-39-counties.html . live .
  26. Web site: Governor - County Results. 2024-08-12 . Washington Secretary of State.
  27. Results . sos.wa.gov.