2012 United States Senate election in Utah explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in Utah
Country:Utah
Flag Year:2011
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in Utah
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in Utah
Next Year:2018
Turnout:55.4% (voting eligible)[1]
Image1:File:Orrin Hatch 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee1:Orrin Hatch
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:657,608
Percentage1:65.31%
Nominee2:Scott Howell
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:301,873
Percentage2:29.98%
Map Size:230px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Orrin Hatch
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Orrin Hatch
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and as various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch won re-election to a seventh term against the Democratic candidate, former state Senator and IBM executive Scott Howell, in a rematch of the 2000 Senate election.[2] This would be the last time Hatch was elected to the Senate before his retirement in 2018.

Background

Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term after winning 62.5% of the vote against Pete Ashdown in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in Utah. Tea Party activists targeted Hatch for a primary challenge, similar to the victory of Mike Lee over Bob Bennett in the 2010 election.[3]

Republican nomination

Convention

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Campaign

In 2006, incumbent Orrin Hatch won re-election to a sixth term. In 2008, Chaffetz defeated the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative, Chris Cannon, in the 2008 primary for Utah's 3rd congressional district. In 2010, Mike Lee defeated Bob Bennett in the 2010 Utah Senate election.[3] In March 2011, just-elected U.S. Senator Mike Lee said he will not endorse Hatch in the primary.[15] In May 2011, Chaffetz told several Utah political insiders that he plans to run. He said he won't make an official decision until after Labor Day of 2011.[16]

In June 2011, prominent conservative radio talk show host Mark Levin endorsed Hatch.[17] The fiscally conservative 501(c)4 organization Club for Growth encouraged Chaffetz to run. The group cited Hatch's support for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, State Children's Health Insurance Program, No Child Left Behind Act, Bridge to Nowhere, and other votes among the reasons why they opposed his re-election.[18] In an interview with Politico, Chaffetz stated, "After 34 years of service, I think most Utahans want a change. They want to thank him for his service, but it's time to move on. And for me personally, I think he's been on the wrong side of a host of major issues." The congressman cited Hatch's vote in favor of Equal Opportunity to Serve Act and the Health Equity and Access Reform Today Act of 1993.[19] However, Chaffetz ultimately decided against a run.

Polling

In a January 2012 UtahPolicy.com poll of 1,291 Salt Lake County Republican caucus participants, 42% went for Hatch, 23% Liljenquist, 5% Herrod, and 30% were undecided.[20] In a January 28, 2012 straw poll of 194 votes at the Box Elder County Republican Party Lincoln Day Dinner, 42% went for Liljenquist, 41% for Hatch, and 17% for Herrod.[21]

Results

Primary

Candidates

Campaign

After the convention, Hatch had $3 million more than Liljenquist.[22]

Polling

Poll sourceOrrin
Hatch
Dan
Liljenquist
Other/
Undecided
align=left Utah Data Points/Key Research[23] June 12–19, 2012500±4.4%56%25%18%
align=left Deseret News/KSL-TV[24] June 15–21, 2012737±3.6%60%32%8%

Results

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Howell defeated Ashdown 63%-37% to win and avoid a primary.[27]

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Scott Howell (D)$421,086$420,779$306$0
Orrin Hatch (R)$11,577,851$13,140,209$779,719$515,845
William Barron (I)$17,157$14,116$3,038$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[29] [30] [31]

Top contributors

Scott HowellContributionOrrin HatchContributionWilliam BarronContribution
International Union of Operating Engineers$10,000OC Tanner Inc$72,010Peace River Citrus Products$2,000
Altaview Orthodontics$5,000Cancer Treatment Centers of America$67,500Cirque Property$1,000
International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers$5,000Cerberus Capital Management$65,000
International Association of Iron Workers$5,000Fresenius Medical Care$65,500
Intermountain Healthcare National Education Association$5,000Blue Cross & Blue Shield$54,500
Shurtleff Construction$5,000Ernst & Young$53,000
St Mark's Hospital$5,000PricewaterhouseCoopers$42,008
United Steelworkers$5,000Herbalife International$41,900
Sutter Health$4,500Marriott International$39,500
IBM Corporation$3,150Apollo Global Management$39,000
Source: OpenSecrets[32]

Top industries

Scott HowellContributionOrrin HatchContributionWilliam BarronContribution
Retired$43,100Financial Institutions$1,113,746Retired$4,050
Health Professionals$17,000Pharmaceuticals/Health Products$834,601Agribusiness$2,000
Building Trade Unions$15,000Lobbyists$508,567Real Estate$1,000
Hospitals/Nursing Homes$14,500Insurance$495,968Education$750
Lawyers/Law Firms$12,250Lawyers/Law Firms$479,871Misc Business$500
Industrial Unions$10,000Health Professionals$447,415
General Contractors$7,500Real Estate$412,394
Automotive$5,000Health Services/HMOs$396,132
Public Sector Unions$5,000Leadership PACs$394,550
High-Tech Industry$4,900Oil & Gas$391,878
Source: OpenSecrets[33]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[34] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[36] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[37] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceOrrin
Hatch (R)
Scott
Howell (D)
Other/
Undecided
align=left Deseret News/KSL-TVJune 15–21, 20121,228±2.8%63%29%8%
align=left Utah State University[38] October 8–13, 2012n/a±7.6%67%24%9%
align=left Key Research[39] October 9–13, 2012500±4.4%61%22%17%
align=left Deseret News/KSL[40] October 26 – November 1, 2012870±3.4%63%26%11%

with Dan Liljenquist

with Jason Chaffetz

Poll sourceJason
Chaffetz (R)
Jim
Matheson (D)
Undecided
align=left Deseret News/KSL-TV[42] June 13–16, 2011406±5.0%46%45%8%
align=left Public Policy PollingJuly 8–10, 2011732±3.6%42%47%11%
align=left Mason-Dixon[43] August 8–10, 2011625±4.0%49%43%8%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceOrrin
Hatch (R)
Jim
Matheson (D)
Undecided
align=left Deseret News/KSL-TVJune 13–16, 2011406±5.0%47%47%6%
align=left Public Policy PollingJuly 8–10, 2011732±3.6%44%45%11%
align=left Mason-DixonAugust 8–10, 2011625±4.0%48%43%9%

Republican primary

Poll sourceOrrin
Hatch
Jason
Chaffetz
Undecided
align=left Deseret News/KSL-TVJune 13–16, 2011406±5.0%47%44%10%
align=left Public Policy Polling[44] July 8–10, 2011406±4.9%43%47%10%
align=left Mason-DixonAugust 8–10, 2011305±5.7%49%39%12%

By congressional district

Hatch won all 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[45]

DistrictHatchHowellRepresentative
69.84%25.63%Rob Bishop
60.84%33.85%Chris Stewart
70.35%25.14%
59.92%35.62%Jim Matheson

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout Rates . . Dr. Michael McDonald . February 9, 2013 . April 6, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html . April 24, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
  2. Web site: Sen. Orrin Hatch forced into primary for first time since '76, faces Dan Liljenquist in June . April 21, 2012 . May 9, 2012 . www.deseretnews.com.
  3. News: Orrin Hatch courts tea party activists, Tea Party Express divided. February 9, 2011. May 11, 2012. The Washington Post. Rachel. Weiner.
  4. Web site: Utah Republican Party Candidates List.
  5. Web site: L.A. Brunson Campaign Interview and Announcement. K-Talk Radio. October 25, 2011.
  6. Web site: Sen. Hatch: 'I intend to run, and I intend to win'. December 8, 2010. December 11, 2010. The Hill. Sean J.. Miller.
  7. Web site: Rep. Chris Herrod joins campaign to defeat Orrin Hatch . January 6, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
  8. Web site: Liljenquist is in against Hatch. January 4, 2012. January 9, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
  9. Web site: Jason Chaffetz is out, but Orrin Hatch isn't in the clear. August 22, 2011. May 11, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese. Jake. Sherman.
  10. Web site: Chaffetz Passes on Hatch Challenge. August 22, 2011. May 11, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. May 10, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120510101944/http://www.rollcall.com/news/jason_chaffetz_passes_on_orrin_hatch_challenge-208262-1.html. dead.
  11. Web site: Jon Huntsman rules out another political bid – for now. February 6, 2012. February 8, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Thomas. Burr. https://web.archive.org/web/20120604074413/http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/huntsman/53456955-188/huntsman-says-bid-presidential.html.csp. June 4, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  12. Web site: Tea Party leader Kirkham ready to run for governor. January 6, 2012. January 9, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
  13. Web site: Philpot to challenge Herbert in 2012. December 1, 2011. May 11, 2012. Daily Herald. Billy. Hesterman. January 3, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120103083216/http://www.heraldextra.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/elections/philpot-to-challenge-herbert-in/article_cfacf96e-9f5c-5a46-8d24-34c8f8c1aa01.html. dead.
  14. Web site: Two Utah political heavyweights eyeing key races. June 9, 2011. May 11, 2012. Deseret News. Lisa Riley. Roche.
  15. News: Mike Lee: Orrin Hatch Not Getting My Endorsement In 2012 Primary . Huffington Post . February 11, 2011.
  16. Web site: Sources say Chaffetz is in against Hatch. June 1, 2011. May 11, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
  17. Web site: Key National Voice Endorses Orrin Hatch For Senate. June 14, 2011. May 11, 2012. Orrin Hatch for Utah. https://web.archive.org/web/20110711150501/http://www.hatchforsenate.com/_blog/blog/post/Key_National_Voice_Endorses_Orrin_Hatch_For_Senate/. July 11, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
  18. Web site: Run, Jason, Run!. June 1, 2011. May 11, 2012. Club for Growth. Barney. Keller. https://web.archive.org/web/20120324120900/http://www.clubforgrowth.org/perm/?postID=15170. March 24, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  19. Web site: Jason Chaffetz leaning toward challenging Orrin Hatch. June 3, 2011. May 11, 2012. Politico. Jake. Sherman.
  20. Web site: UtahPolicy.com Poll: Salt Lake County Republicans Prefer Hatch over Liljenquist. https://archive.today/20120729192448/http://utahpolicy.com/view/full_story/17231848/article-UtahPolicy-com-Poll--Salt-Lake-County-Republicans-Prefer-Hatch-over-Liljenquist. dead. July 29, 2012. January 20, 2012. May 11, 2012. Utah Policy. Bryan. Schott.
  21. Web site: Liljenquist, Herbert and Swallow lead straw poll results among Box Elder GOP. February 2, 2012. May 11, 2012. Cache Valley Daily. https://web.archive.org/web/20120313062717/http://www.cachevalleydaily.com/news/local/Liljenquist-Herbert-and-Swallow-lead-straw-poll-results-among-Box-Elder-GOP-138622749.html. March 13, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  22. Web site: Orrin Hatch fails to clinch GOP nomination in Utah — by 0.9%. April 21, 2012. May 11, 2012. Hot Air. Allahpundit.
  23. http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/06/who-is-going-to-win-the-republican-senate-primary/ Utah Data Points/Key Research
  24. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/765585575/Poll-Hatch-maintains-lead-over-Liljenquist.html Deseret News/KSL-TV
  25. Web site: Pete Ashdown to try again to unseat Sen. Hatch. November 8, 2011. May 11, 2012. Deseret News. Lisa Riley. Roche.
  26. Web site: From president to school board, candidates file for Utah elections. March 15, 2012. May 11, 2012. The Salt Lake Tribune. Robert. Gehrke.
  27. Web site: Utah Democrats pick Scott Howell as candidate for U.S. Senate. April 21, 2012. May 11, 2012. Deseret News. Marjorie. Cortez.
  28. Web site: Hatch faces 9 challengers from within his own party. March 15, 2012. May 11, 2012. Cache Valley Daily. Eric. Frandsen. https://web.archive.org/web/20120318045402/http://www.cachevalleydaily.com/news/local/Hatch-faces-9-challengers-from-within-his-own-party-142870065.html. March 18, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  29. Web site: Howell Campaign Finances.
  30. Web site: Hatch Campaign Finances.
  31. Web site: Barron Campaign Finances.
  32. Web site: Top Contributors 2012 Race: Utah Senate . OpenSecrets.
  33. Web site: Top Industries 2012 Race: Utah Senate . OpenSecrets.
  34. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  35. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  36. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  37. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  38. http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/10/usu-pre-election-poll/ Utah State University
  39. http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/10/key-research-poll-general-election-predictions/ Key Research
  40. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865565953/Deseret-NewsKSL-poll-Hatch-holds-huge-lead-in-US-Senate-race-Stewart-Bishop-Chaffetz-favored.html Deseret News/KSL
  41. https://web.archive.org/web/20120904092231/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_7121118.pdf Public Policy Polling
  42. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700145325/Poll-Time-for-Senator-Orrin-Hatch-to-go.html?pg=1 Deseret News/KSL-TV
  43. http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/52372879-90/hatch-chaffetz-percent-matheson.html.csp?page=1/ Mason-Dixon
  44. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_UT_07131118.pdf Public Policy Polling
  45. Web site: Utah 2012 sen-by-cd .