2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Next Year:2018
Image1:Martin Heinrich, official portrait, 112th Congress crop.jpg
Nominee1:Martin Heinrich
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:395,717
Percentage1:51.01%
Nominee2:Heather Wilson
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:351,259
Percentage2:45.28%
Map Size:230px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jeff Bingaman
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Martin Heinrich
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term.[1] Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

Background

Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceHector
Balderas
Martin
Heinrich
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[10] June 23–26, 2011400± 4.9%24%47%29%
align=left Magellan Strategies[11] July 17–18, 2011636± 3.9%21%54%25%
align=left Public Policy Polling[12] December 10–12, 2011309± 5.6%30%47%23%
align=left Public Policy Polling[13] April 19–22, 2012270± 6%27%51%22%
align=left Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling[14] May 21–24, 2012741± 3.6%26%51%23%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceBill
English
John
Sanchez
Greg
Sowards
Heather
Wilson
OtherUndecided
align=left Magellan Strategies[21] April 26–27, 2011801± 3.5%17%2%59%11%11%
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011400± 4.9%4%24%8%52%12%
align=left Magellan Strategies[22] July 17–18, 2011799± 3.5%2%21%5%56%16%
align=left Public Policy Polling[23] December 10–12, 2011300± 5.7%3%20%6%55%16%
align=left Albuquerque Journal[24] May 21–24, 2012504± 4.4%20%66%14%

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Martin Heinrich (D)$3,883,992$2,174,712$1,763,753$89,424
Heather Wilson (R)$4,048,847$2,416,328$1,632,517$0
Jon Barrie (I)$705$1,150$0$445
Source: Federal Election Commission[27] [28] [29]

Top contributors

[30]

Martin HeinrichContributionHeather WilsonContribution
League of Conservation Voters$108,634Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
JStreetPAC$67,860Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
University of New Mexico$24,221Kelly PAC$15,000
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP$23,000Blue Cross & Blue Shield$14,050
Council for a Livable World$20,044Devon Energy$13,250
National Rural Letter Carriers' Association$19,000Murray Energy$12,800
Comcast Corporation$11,250Yates Petroleum$12,600
Presbyterian Healthcare Services$11,150Livingston Group$12,249
Intel Corp$10,500Publix Super Markets$11,000
American Optometric Association$10,250Westport Construction$10,500

Top industries

[31]

Martin HeinrichContributionHeather WilsonContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms$322,120Retired$355,880
Retired$270,598Oil & Gas$217,500
Lobbyists$156,480Leadership PACs$206,225
Environmental organizations$145,365Financial Institutions$163,888
Leadership PACs$100,000Lobbyists$113,549
Health Professionals$95,729Lawyers/Law Firms$106,852
Pro-Israel$83,860Real Estate$95,990
Public Sector Unions$67,000Misc Finance$72,407
Democratic/Liberal$64,300Business Services$72,078
Casinos/Gambling$58,550Mining$69,200

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[32] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[34] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[35] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceMartin
Heinrich (D)
Heather
Wilson (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[36] February 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%50%39%11%
align=left Public Policy Polling[37] June 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%47%42%11%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%47%40%13%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[38] February 14, 2012500± 4.5%45%43%5%7%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[39] April 3, 2012500± 4.5%46%42%7%6%
align=left Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%48%43%9%
align=left Public Policy Polling[40] July 13–16, 2012724± 3.6%48%43%9%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsAugust 21, 2012500± 4.5%48%41%5%7%
align=left Albuquerque Journal[41] September 3–6, 2012667± 3.8%49%42%8%
align=left Public Policy Polling[42] September 7–9, 20121,122± 2.9%50%41%9%
align=left We Ask America[43] September 25–27, 20121,258± 2.85%52%41%7%
align=left Public Policy Polling[44] October 2–3, 2012778± n/a%51%41%8%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsOctober 8, 2012500± 4.5%52%39%4%5%
align=left Albuquerque Poll Journal[45] October 9–11, 2012658± 3.8%48%39%4%9%
align=left Public Policy Polling[46] October 23–24, 2012727± n/a%52%44%3%
align=left Albuquerque Poll Journal[47] October 23–25, 2012662± 3.8%50%42%3%6%

with Jeff Bingaman

with Hector Balderas

Poll sourceHector
Balderas (D)
Greg
Sowards (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%42%28%30%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%44%30%27%
align=left Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%42%30%28%
Poll sourceHector
Balderas (D)
Heather
Wilson (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%45%39%16%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%43%43%14%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 14, 2012500± 4.5%44%44%3%9%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsApril 3, 2012500± 4.5%42%43%5%9%
align=left Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%44%43%12%

with Ben Ray Luján

with Martin Heinrich

Poll sourceMartin
Heinrich (D)
Gary
Johnson (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingFebruary 4–6, 2011545± 4.2%43%44%14%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%43%43%14%
Poll sourceMartin
Heinrich (D)
Greg
Sowards (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 23–26, 2011732± 3.6%46%34%20%
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 10–12, 2011500± 4.4%49%31%20%
align=left Public Policy PollingApril 19–22, 2012526± 4.3%48%34%18%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Results by congressional district

Heinrich won 2 of 3 congressional districts.[48]

DistrictHeinrichWilsonRepresentative
53.5%43.34%Michelle Lujan Grisham
44.37%51.15%Steve Pearce
54.15%42.42%Ben Ray Luján

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: Bingaman won't run for Senate in 2012. February 19, 2011. February 19, 2011. The Washington Post. Chris. Cillizza.
  2. Web site: Balderas Enters N.M. Senate Race Against Heinrich. April 26, 2011. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad.
  3. Web site: Heinrich Makes N.M. Senate Bid Official. April 2, 2011. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. April 4, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110404233435/http://www.rollcall.com/news/Martin-Heinrich-Announce-Senate-Bid-204547-1.html. dead.
  4. Web site: Chávez is running for Congress; Denish isn't. June 29, 2011. May 13, 2012. NMPolitics.net. Heath. Haussamen.
  5. Web site: Chavez sets up primary for Heinrich seat. June 29, 2011. May 13, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese.
  6. Web site: Andres Valdez Out of U.S. Senate Race. February 14, 2012. May 13, 2012. Associated Press. Albuquerque Journal. April 25, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20130425184555/http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/02/14/abqnewsseeker/andres-valdez-out-of-u-s-senate-race.html. dead.
  7. Web site: Diane Denish endorses Balderas. July 6, 2011. May 13, 2012. Politico. David. Catanese.
  8. Web site: Denish to Endorse Balderas in N.M. Senate Primary. July 6, 2011. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad.
  9. Web site: Ben Ray Lujan won't run for Senate. April 25, 2011. April 25, 2011. Politico. David. Catanese.
  10. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_630930.pdf Public Policy Polling
  11. https://web.archive.org/web/20110815150429/http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-Democrat-Primary-Survey-Release-071911.pdf Magellan Strategies
  12. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1215925.pdf Public Policy Polling
  13. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_424.pdf Public Policy Polling
  14. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling
  15. Web site: Sowards announces candidacy for Senate. December 16, 2010. December 16, 2010. NMPolitics.net. Heath. Haussamen.
  16. Web site: Wilson formally enters U.S. Senate race. March 7, 2011. May 13, 2012. NMPolitics.net. Heath. Haussamen.
  17. Web site: Republican Candidate Bill English Withdraws from New Mexico U.S. Senate Race, Endorses Sowards. January 11, 2012. May 13, 2012. Tea Party Tribune.
  18. Web site: Republican John Sanchez Drops New Mexico Senate Bid. February 9, 2012. May 13, 2012. Roll Call. Kyle. Trygstad. February 13, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120213032419/http://atr.rollcall.com/republican-john-sanchez-drops-new-mexico-senate-bid/. dead.
  19. Web site: Former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson will not run for Senate. https://archive.today/20120614051611/http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/2011/02/former-new-mexico-gov-gary-johnson-will-not-run-senate. dead. June 14, 2012. February 18, 2011. February 18, 2011. The Washington Examiner. Peter. Burns.
  20. Web site: Pearce re-election committee has balance of $682K. April 17, 2012. May 13, 2012. Las Cruces Sun-News.
  21. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Magellan-New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-GOP-Primary-Survey-Topline-Results-042811.pdf Magellan Strategies
  22. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/New-Mexico-2012-US-Senate-Republican-Primary-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-0718112.pdf Magellan Strategies
  23. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_1213925.pdf Public Policy Polling
  24. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/05/27/a1/heinrich-wilson-build-wide-leads.html Albuquerque Journal
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20120706181536/http://www.jonbarrieforsenate.com/ Jon Barrie
  26. Web site: Independent With Libertarian Bent Announces Bid For US Senate. January 5, 2012. May 13, 2012. Santa Fe Reporter. Joey. Peters.
  27. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Martin Heinrich Campaign Finances
  28. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Heather Wilson Campaign Finances
  29. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Jon Barrie Campaign Finances
  30. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NMS1 Top Contributors 2012 Race: New Mexico Senate
  31. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2012&id=NMS1|Top Donors by Industries (opensecrets.org)
  32. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  33. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  34. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  35. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  36. https://web.archive.org/web/20110221181428/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_0208.pdf Public Policy Polling
  37. https://web.archive.org/web/20110706154541/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_627513.pdf Public Policy Polling
  38. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/new_mexico/new_mexico_senate_heinrich_d_45_wilson_r_43 Rasmussen Reports
  39. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2012_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports
  40. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_071712.pdf Public Policy Polling
  41. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/09/09/news/heinrich-leads-wilson-in-us-senate-contest.html Albuquerque Journal
  42. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NM_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling
  43. https://web.archive.org/web/20121004035556/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/01/western-front/ We Ask America
  44. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/NewMexicoResultsOctober2012.pdf Public Policy Polling
  45. http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/15/news/heinrich-leading-in-u-s-senate-race.html Albuquerque Poll Journal
  46. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/NewMexicoResults.pdf Public Policy Polling
  47. https://web.archive.org/web/20121103203809/http://www.abqjournal.com/main/2012/10/29/news/heinrich-stays-ahead-in-senate-race.html Albuquerque Poll Journal
  48. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.