2012 United States Senate election in Nebraska explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Country:Nebraska
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Image1:Deb Fischer, official portrait, 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee1:Deb Fischer
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:455,593
Percentage1:57.77%
Nominee2:Bob Kerrey
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:332,979
Percentage2:42.23%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Ben Nelson
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Deb Fischer
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Nebraska took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic senator Ben Nelson chose to retire instead of seeking a third term.[1] Democrat Bob Kerrey, who held this seat from 1989 to 2001, and Republican state senator Deb Fischer won their respective parties' primary elections on May 15, 2012.

Fischer won the general election with 57.8% of the vote. Her election marked the first time since 1970 that a Republican was elected to Nebraska's Class 1 Senate seat, as well as the first time that a woman was elected to a full Senate term in the state's history. This was the only Republican flip of the 2012 U.S. Senate elections. Fischer's inauguration marked the first time since the resignation of Roman Hruska in 1976 where Republicans held both Senate seats from Nebraska.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jon
Bruning
Sharyn
Elander
Deb
Fischer
Pat
Flynn
Don
Stenberg
Spencer
Zimmerman
Undecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[24] January 26–27, 2011519±4.3%47%6%7%19%20%
align=left Public Policy Polling[25] September 30 – October 2, 2011400±4.9%37%14%6%16%27%
align=left Public Policy Polling[26] March 22–25, 2012440±4.7%46%3%12%4%18%0%18%
align=left We Ask America[27] May 6, 20121,173±2.9%42.2%3.4%25.9%4%22.5%2%
align=left We Ask America[28] May 13, 20121,109±2.95%34%4%39%3%18%2%
align=left Public Policy Polling[29] May 14, 2012272±5.9%33%1%37%2%17%1%7%

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

The first debate took place at the Heartland Events Center during the Nebraska State Fair at 4 p.m. Saturday, August 25, 2012. Kerrey and Fischer participated.

The second debate took place on September 28, 2012, KETV-TV, Chamber of Commerce of Greater Omaha. Kerrey and Fischer participated.

The third debate took place on October 1, 2012, NET-TV. Kerrey and Fischer participated. Topics included agriculture policy, the economy, taxes and education.External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Bob Kerrey (D)$4,877,704$4,582,224$295,480$0
Deb Fischer (R)$4,536,837$3,472,721$1,458,122$65,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[30] [31] [32]

Top contributors

[33]

Bob KerreyContributionDeb FischerContribution
Rural Media Group$62,500Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
MacAndrews & Forbes$51,000Hawkins Construction$20,000
Tenet Healthcare$25,650Kelly PAC$20,000
Nix, Patterson & Roach$25,000Tenaska Energy$17,500
Allen & Company$22,500Werner Enterprises$15,250
Kirkland & Ellis$21,500T&L Irrigation$13,200
Level 3 Communications$17,000Union Pacific$11,500
Genworth Financial$16,000Pinnacle Financial Partners$10,500
Williams Kherkher$16,00021st Century Majority Fund$10,000
Bank of America$15,250AG Processing$10,000

Top industries

[34]

Bob KerreyContributionDeb FischerContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms$293,434Leadership PACs$165,500
Retired$219,224Retired$124,546
Leadership PACs$203,500Agribusiness$105,052
Financial Institutions$182,150Commercial Banks$54,990
Entertainment Industry$119,000Financial Institutions$54,416
Lobbyists$104,400General Contractors$54,300
Real Estate$87,675Real Estate$38,000
Manufacturing & Distributing$61,700Insurance$36,000
Education$53,000Health Professionals$31,850
Insurance$51,500Electric Utilities$29,900

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[35] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[37] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[38] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceBob
Kerrey (D)
Deb
Fischer (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Rasmussen Reports[39] March 5, 2012500±4.5%34%46%10%10%
align=left Public Policy PollingMarch 22–25, 20121,028±3.1%38%48%14%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[40] May 16, 2012500±4.5%38%56%2%3%
align=left WeAskAmerica[41] August 14, 20121,273±2.8%34%55%11%
align=left Omaha World-Herald[42] September 17–20, 2012800±3.5%42%52%6%
align=left Pharos Research[43] October 19–21, 2012783±3.5%46%48%6%
align=left Omaha World-Herald[44] October 23–25, 2012800±3.5%45%48%7%
align=left We Ask America[45] November 1, 20121,178±3.0%41%54%5%

With Kerrey

Poll sourceBob
Kerrey (D)
Jon
Bruning (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Magellan Strategies[46] January 10–11, 2012675±3.77%40%51%9%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsMarch 5, 2012500±4.5%33%55%4%7%
align=left Public Policy PollingMarch 22–25, 20121,028±3.1%37%54%9%
Poll sourceBob
Kerrey (D)
Don
Stenberg (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Magellan StrategiesJanuary 10–11, 2012675±3.77%39%47%14%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsMarch 5, 2012500±4.5%34%52%5%9%
align=left Public Policy PollingMarch 22–25, 20121,028±3.1%38%52%10%

With Lathrop

With Nelson

Poll sourceBen
Nelson (D)
Jon
Bruning (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Magellan Strategies[47] December 15, 20101,789±2.3%38%52%––10%
align=left Public Policy Polling[48] January 26–27, 2011977±3.1%39%50%––11%
align=left Public Policy Polling[49] September 30 – October 2, 2011739±3.6%42%46%––12%
align=left Magellan Strategies[50] November 20–21, 2011645±3.9%39%45%––16%
Poll sourceBen
Nelson (D)
Deb
Fischer (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 26–27, 2011977±3.1%42%35%––22%
align=left Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011739±3.6%41%39%––20%
align=left Magellan StrategiesNovember 20–21, 2011645±3.9%41%35%––24%
Poll sourceBen
Nelson (D)
Pat
Flynn (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 26–27, 2011977±3.1%42%33%––24%
align=left Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011739±3.6%43%36%––21%
Poll sourceBen
Nelson (D)
Don
Stenberg (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Magellan StrategiesDecember 15, 20101,789±2.3%40%46%––14%
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 26–27, 2011977±3.1%41%45%––14%
align=left Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2011739±3.6%41%44%––15%
align=left Magellan StrategiesNovember 20–21, 2011645±3.9%40%41%––19%

With Robak

Results

By county

From Secretary of State of Nebraska

CountyDeb FischerRepublicanBob KerreyDemocraticTotal
votes
%%
Adams64.65%8,17035.35%4,46812,638
Antelope81.32%2,62518.68%6033,228
Arthur86.74%22913.26%35264
Banner84.91%34915.09%62411
Blaine89.23%26510.77%32297
Boone76.31%2,13923.69%6642,803
Box Butte60.41%2,83839.59%1,8604,698
Boyd80.36%85119.64%2081,059
Brown86.80%1,34213.20%2041,546
Buffalo70.01%13,49129.99%5,77919,270
Burt59.55%1,97740.45%1,3433,320
Butler68.86%2,64231.14%1,1953,837
Cass59.25%7,15340.75%4,91912,072
Cedar70.31%3,04129.69%1,2844,325
Chase83.57%1,54616.43%3041,850
Cherry77.91%2,32822.09%6602,988
Cheyenne72.54%3,34427.46%1,2664,610
Clay74.52%2,19425.48%7502,944
Colfax65.23%1,99234.77%1,0623,054
Cuming73.00%2,89327.00%1,0703,963
Custer80.78%4,43919.22%1,0565,495
Dakota45.63%2,77054.37%3,3006,070
Dawes64.86%2,40535.14%1,3033,708
Dawson69.54%5,42230.46%2,3757,797
Deuel75.00%76225.00%2541,016
Dixon60.22%1,61839.78%1,0692,687
Dodge59.30%8,82340.70%6,05614,879
Douglas48.25%106,95151.75%114,700221,651
Dundy78.35%76721.65%212979
Fillmore67.18%1,91832.82%9372,855
Franklin72.59%1,10727.41%4181,525
Frontier77.12%1,00822.88%2991,307
Furnas77.43%1,72922.57%5042,233
Gage53.74%5,17246.26%4,4529,624
Garden75.76%81924.24%2621,081
Garfield81.99%77418.01%170944
Gosper75.31%73824.69%242980
Grant83.52%29916.48%59358
Greeley69.61%82730.39%3611,188
Hall61.32%12,35038.68%7,79020,140
Hamilton72.27%3,49827.73%1,3424,840
Harlan75.64%132924.36%4281,757
Hayes83.49%44516.51%88533
Hitchcock74.98%1,11225.02%3711,483
Holt79.17%3,89620.83%1,0254,921
Hooker82.84%33317.16%69402
Howard67.69%1,94032.31%9262,866
Jefferson60.04%2,05239.96%1,3663,418
Johnson55.76%1,14744.24%9102,057
Kearney74.08%2,34325.92%8203,163
Keith73.76%2,98826.24%1,0634,051
Keya Paha84.62%40715.38%74481
Kimball73.39%1,23326.61%4471,680
Knox71.52%2,88028.48%1,1474,027
Lancaster46.15%58,30653.85%68,046126,352
Lincoln66.00%10,28534.00%5,29815,583
Logan82.45%35717.55%76433
Loup78.71%28121.29%76357
Madison72.92%10,08927.08%3,74613,835
McPherson86.35%25313.65%40293
Merrick71.44%2,49128.56%9963,487
Morrill76.24%1,67523.76%5222,197
Nance66.42%1,06833.58%5401,608
Nemaha59.09%1,90140.91%1,3163,217
Nuckolls70.21%1,53229.79%6502,182
Otoe58.58%4,06741.42%2,8766,943
Pawnee64.11%86135.89%4821,343
Perkins78.60%1,09121.40%2971,388
Phelps77.00%3,36823.00%1,0064,374
Pierce79.55%2,71620.45%6983,414
Platte73.13%9,80126.87%3,60113,402
Polk74.65%1,82025.35%6182,438
Red Willow75.25%3,69224.75%1,2144,906
Richardson62.08%2,31237.92%1,4123,724
Rock86.90%68313.10%103786
Saline48.30%2,38751.70%2,5554,942
Sarpy57.56%40,68242.44%29,99670,678
Saunders63.72%6,54736.28%3,72810,275
Scotts Bluff64.96%9,29935.04%5,01714,316
Seward63.18%4,76436.82%2,7767,540
Sheridan80.24%1,98619.76%4892,475
Sherman63.20%96036.80%5591,519
Sioux82.76%60517.24%126731
Stanton74.99%1,97925.01%6602,639
Thayer65.79%1,74234.21%9062,648
Thomas85.23%35214.77%61413
Thurston40.38%90059.62%1,3292,229
Valley72.91%1,59927.09%5942,193
Washington65.52%6,66034.48%3,50510,165
Wayne67.56%2,48432.44%1,1933,677
Webster69.66%1,20330.34%5241,727
Wheeler79.78%35920.22%91450
York74.78%4,72625.22%1,5946,320

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Fischer won all 3 congressional districts.[51]

DistrictFischerKerreyRepresentative
55.01%44.99%Jeff Fortenberry
50.06%49.94%Lee Terry
68.48%31.52%Adrian Smith

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Ben Nelson retiring from Senate . Politico . December 27, 2011.
  2. Web site: Bob Kerrey will run for U.S. Senate. February 29, 2012. February 29, 2012. Omaha World-Herald. March 3, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120303005538/http://www.omaha.com/article/20120229/NEWS01/702299827. dead.
  3. Web site: Omahan files as Democratic Senate candidate. January 23, 2012. February 15, 2012. Lincoln Journal Star.
  4. Web site: Alternative candidates: Issues drew them to Senate race. May 6, 2012. May 7, 2012. North Platte Bulletin. Christine. Scalora. March 3, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160303185949/http://www.northplattebulletin.com/index.asp?show=news&action=readStory&storyID=22966&pageID=24. dead.
  5. Web site: Nebraska: Democratic Field Clears for Bob Kerrey At the Races . March 8, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120311013105/http://atr.rollcall.com/nebraska-democratic-field-clears-for-bob-kerrey/ . March 11, 2012 . dead .
  6. Web site: Beutler brushes off Senate speculation; Nelson staff mulls campaign funds. DON WALTON / Lincoln Journal. Star. JournalStar.com. December 29, 2011 .
  7. Web site: Jane Kleeb comments on Senator Nelson's retirement. December 28, 2011. December 29, 2011. KHAS-TV. Jordan. Shefte. https://web.archive.org/web/20120511220510/http://www.khastv.com/news/local/Jane-Kleeb-comments-on-Senator-Nelsons-retirement-136342748.html. May 11, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  8. Web site: Lathrop Won't Run for Ben Nelson's Seat. February 13, 2012. February 13, 2012. National Journal. Sean. Sullivan. https://web.archive.org/web/20121019113628/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2012/02/lathrop-wont-ru.php. October 19, 2012. dead. mdy-all.
  9. Web site: Ben Nelson: 'It's time to move on'. John. Bresnahan. POLITICO. December 27, 2011 .
  10. Web site: Robak out of Senate race, too - Omaha.com. February 1, 2023.
  11. Web site: Bruning makes Senate bid official. January 5, 2011. January 5, 2011. Omaha World-Herald. Robynn. Tysver. January 13, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110113013435/http://www.omaha.com/article/20110105/NEWS01/110109857. dead.
  12. Web site: Fischer kicks off U.S. Senate bid - Omaha.com. February 1, 2023. August 6, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120806012720/http://www.omaha.com/article/20110628/NEWS01/706289903/1006415. dead.
  13. Web site: Pat Flynn launches GOP Senate campaign. November 19, 2010. November 22, 2010. Lincoln Journal Star. Don. Walton.
  14. Web site: Nebraska Treasurer to Enter GOP Senate Primary. February 28, 2011. Roll Call.
  15. Web site: Republican Senate field becoming crowded. June 18, 2011. June 18, 2011. Lincoln Journal Star. Don. Walton.
  16. Web site: More Republicans eyeing Senate?. December 15, 2010. December 15, 2010. Omaha World-Herald. Robynn. Tysver. April 30, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110430201827/http://www.omaha.com/article/20101215/NEWS01/101219788/296. dead.
  17. Web site: Senate race doesn't interest Flood. November 9, 2010. November 19, 2010. Omaha World-Herald. Kent. Warneke. November 11, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20101111152423/http://www.omaha.com/article/20101109/NEWS01/711099866/0. dead.
  18. Web site: Fortenberry won't seek Senate seat. January 9, 2012. January 9, 2012. Lincoln Journal Star. Don. Walton.
  19. News: Paul HammelWORLD-HERALD BUREAU . Heineman: No Senate bid in 2012 . Omaha.com . November 5, 2010 . June 16, 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110616044935/http://www.omaha.com/article/20101104/NEWS01/101109857/942833 . dead .
  20. Web site: Nebraska Senate GOP Primary Gets a New Candidate : Roll Call Politics. February 1, 2023.
  21. Web site: Don Walton: Electoral vote battle looms. January 3, 2011. January 3, 2011. Lincoln Journal Star. Don. Walton.
  22. Web site: US Senate race wide open for Neb. GOP candidates. November 14, 2010. December 10, 2010. Associated Press. Margery A.. Beck.
  23. Web site: No Senate bid for Fortenberry - Omaha.com. February 1, 2023. January 12, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120112040153/http://www.omaha.com/article/20120109/NEWS01/120109739. dead.
  24. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_0203.pdf Public Policy Polling
  25. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NCNEWV_1004.pdf Public Policy Polling
  26. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_032712.pdf Public Policy Polling
  27. https://web.archive.org/web/20120514141149/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/07/mid-america-melee/ We Ask America
  28. https://web.archive.org/web/20120514141055/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/05/14/nebraska-2/ We Ask America
  29. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_515.pdf Public Policy Polling
  30. Web site: J. Robert Kerrey . Federal Election Commission . January 27, 2023 . December 16, 2012 . https://archive.today/20121216091243/http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_12+S8NE00067 . bot: unknown .
  31. Web site: Debra S. Fischer . Federal Election Commission . January 27, 2023 . December 10, 2012 . https://archive.today/20121210070400/http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_12+S2NE00094 . bot: unknown .
  32. Web site: Paul Russell Anderson . Federal Election Commission . January 27, 2023 . December 16, 2012 . https://archive.today/20121216092254/http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/cancomsrs/?_12+S2NE00086 . bot: unknown .
  33. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=NES1 Kansas District 04 2012 Race
  34. Web site: Kansas District 04 2012 Race. OpenSecrets.
  35. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  36. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  37. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  38. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  39. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/nebraska/nebraska_senate_bruning_r_55_kerrey_d_33 Rasmussen Reports
  40. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/nebraska/election_2012_nebraska_senate Rasmussen Reports
  41. http://leavenworthst.com/2012/08/16/new-deb-fischer-ad-up-and-bob-kerrey-wilts/ WeAskAmerica
  42. https://web.archive.org/web/20120925074101/http://www.omaha.com/article/20120923/NEWS/709239923/1685#campaign-2012-2nd-district-could-be-blue-again Omaha World-Herald
  43. https://web.archive.org/web/20160306114244/https://www.scribd.com/doc/111056293/Nebraska-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research
  44. http://www.omaha.com/article/20121028/NEWS/710289927/1707 Omaha World-Herald
  45. https://web.archive.org/web/20121104041603/http://weaskamerica.com/2012/11/02/nebraska/ We Ask America
  46. https://web.archive.org/web/20120312020754/http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/Nebraska-US-Senate-General-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-011512.pdf Magellan Strategies
  47. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Nebraska-2012-US-Senate-Survey-Topline-Results-122210-RELEASE.pdf Magellan Strategies
  48. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NE_02011118.pdf Public Policy Polling
  49. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NE_1005424.pdf Public Policy Polling
  50. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/Nebraska-2012-US-Senate-General-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-112811.pdf Magellan Strategies
  51. Web site: Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index.