2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Country:Minnesota
Flag Year:1983
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Image1:File:Amy Klobuchar, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Amy Klobuchar
Party1:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
Popular Vote1:1,854,595
Percentage1:65.23%
Nominee2:Kurt Bills
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:867,874
Percentage2:30.53%
Map Size:270px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Amy Klobuchar
Before Party:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
After Election:Amy Klobuchar
After Party:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party

The 2012 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar faced Republican State Representative Kurt Bills. Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Bills by almost one million votes and carrying all but two of the state's 87 counties by double digits.[1] This election marked the first time since 1996 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected and the first time since 1976 that an incumbent Democratic senator was re-elected to this seat.

Background

Incumbent Amy Klobuchar was first elected in 2006 to succeed the retiring DFL incumbent Mark Dayton. She beat Republican nominee Mark Kennedy, 58% to 38%. Klobuchar served as Minnesota's only senator between January 3 and July 7, 2009, due to the contested results of Minnesota's senatorial election held the previous year, finally decided in favor of DFLer Al Franken.

DFL primary

The Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican primary

The Republican Party of Minnesota held its nominating convention in May 2012 and held its Senate primary on August 14, 2012.[2]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Results

Independence primary

Campaign

The Independence Party of Minnesota did not plan to run a candidate in the general election. Party chairman Mark Jenkins said in November 2011 that he saw the Senate election as "a distraction from having our best and brightest engaged in state legislative races".[8] At the party's convention in June 2012, neither candidate was endorsed. Williams won a majority of the votes and came within two votes of the required 60% needed for the party's endorsement. He proceeded with his run for the Senate but the party focused its attention on state legislative races.[9]

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Debates

On August 29 Klobuchar and Bills held their second debate at the State Fair, sponsored by MPR News. Their third debate, on September 16 in Duluth, was about the nation's struggle with deficit spending and unemployment. The audience was assembled by the Duluth Area Chamber of Commerce and Duluth News Tribune.[11] External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebtCurrent Through
Amy Klobuchar (D)$6,301,413$2,530,567$5,393,798$0July 25, 2012
Kurt Bills (R)$394,547$388,720$5,841$0July 25, 2012
Source: Federal Election Commission[12]

Top contributors

This section lists the top contributors by employer. These organizations themselves didn't donate, but these numbers include donations from their PACs, members, employees, owners, and their immediate families.

Amy KlobucharContributionKurt BillsContribution
Dorsey & Whitney$61,100Liberty PAC$10,000
Target Corp$56,050Craw$10,000
General Mills$51,750Primera Technology$10,000
U.S. Bancorp$51,139Minnesota Limited Pipeline$7,500
Robins, Kaplan, Miller & Ciresi$49,150Ameriprise Financial$5,000
Medtronic Inc.$41,025Bachmann for Congress$5,000
Toys R Us$36,500Exactdrive$5,000
Leonard, Street & Deinard$34,350New Spark Holdings$5,000
Comcast Corp$33,623TACPAC$5,000
Wells Fargo$32,400Twin City Fan Companies$5,000
Source: OpenSecrets,[13] Current through: March 9, 2012

Top industries

Amy KlobucharContributionKurt BillsContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms$989,929Leadership PACs$17,850
Retired$447,082Republican/Conservative$13,750
Leadership PACs$302,150Financial Institutions$13,250
Lobbyists$282,430Real Estate$12,550
Financial Institutions$269,033Retired$10,350
Entertainment industry$256,711Energy Industry$10,250
Women's Issues$196,866Electronics Manufacturing$10,000
Retail industry$181,850Misc. Business$9,450
Commercial Banks$159,139Manufacturing & Distributing$7,850
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products$149,725Computers/Internet$7,350
Source: OpenSecrets,[14] Current through: March 9, 2012

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[15] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[17] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[18] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceAmy
Kurt
Bills (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[19] May 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%55%29%16%
align=left Survey USA[20] July 17–19, 2012552±4.3%55%31%5%9%
align=left KSTP/Survey USA[21] September 6–9, 2012551±4.2%55%34%11%
align=left Public Policy Polling[22] September 10–11, 2012824±3.4%55%36%10%
align=left Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[23] September 17–19, 2012800±3.5%57%28%7%8%
align=left Public Policy Polling[24] October 5–8, 2012937±3.2%57%31%12%
align=left SurveyUSA/KSTP[25] October 12–14, 2012550±4.2%58%30%5%7%
align=left St. Cloud State U.[26] October 15–21, 2012600±5%63%36%1%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[27] October 21, 2012500±4.5%56%33%2%9%
align=left Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon[28] October 23–25, 2012800±3.5%65%22%13%
align=left SurveyUSA[29] October 26–28, 2012574±4.1%60%29%4%7%
align=left KSTP/SurveyUSA[30] November 1–3, 2012556±4.2%60%30%3%7%
align=left Public Policy Polling[31] November 2–3, 20121,164±2.9%62%32%6%

Republican primary

General election

Poll sourceAmy
Klobuchar (DFL)
Joe
Arwood (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Survey USA[33] November 2–6, 2011543±4.3%56%22%22%
align=left Public Policy Polling[34] January 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%55%30%15%
align=left Survey USA[35] January 31 – February 2, 2012542±4.2%59%28%14%
align=left Public Policy PollingMay 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%56%29%15%
Poll sourceAmy
Klobuchar (DFL)
Michele
Bachmann (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[36] December 4–5, 2010949±3.2%56%39%4%
align=left Public Policy Polling[37] May 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%57%37%5%
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%58%35%7%
Poll sourceAmy
Klobuchar (DFL)
Norm
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 4–5, 2010949±3.2%54%40%6%
align=left Survey USANovember 2–6, 2011543±4.3%50%37%14%
Poll sourceAmy
Klobuchar (DFL)
Tim
Pawlenty (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingDecember 4–5, 2010949±3.2%53%43%4%
align=left Public Policy PollingMay 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%54%41%5%
align=left Survey USANovember 2–6, 2011543±4.3%49%37%14%
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%54%39%7%
Poll sourceAmy
Klobuchar (DFL)
Dan
Severson (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy PollingMay 27–30, 20111,179±2.9%56%28%16%
align=left Survey USANovember 2–6, 2011543±4.3%55%23%22%
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 21–22, 20121,236±2.8%55%32%13%
align=left Survey USAJanuary 31 – February 2, 2012542±4.3%56%29%15%
align=left Public Policy PollingMay 31 – June 3, 2012973±3.1%55%27%19%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.[38]

DistrictKlobucharBillsRepresentative
62.45%32.22%Tim Walz
61.73%34.4%John Kline
62.6%34.33%Erik Paulsen
71.26%24.66%Betty McCollum
78.71%17.09%Keith Ellison
58.59%37.15%Michele Bachmann
61.23%34.15%Collin Peterson
65.32%30.64%Rick Nolan

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 General Election for U.S. Senator. https://web.archive.org/web/20190211024311/https://www.sos.state.mn.us/media/2011/us-senator-2012-map-margin-by-county.pdf. dead. February 11, 2019.
  2. Web site: Minnesota Office of the Secretary of State : Important General Election Dates . June 20, 2012 . July 13, 2012 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120713080558/http://www.sos.state.mn.us/index.aspx?page=239 . dead .
  3. Web site: GOP ready to go after Sen. Klobuchar but has a problem: no first-tier candidate . August 22, 2011 . August 26, 2011 . . Doug . Grow . https://web.archive.org/web/20110919050809/http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2011/08/22/30977/gop_ready_to_go_after_sen_klobuchar_but_has_a_problem_no_first-tier_candidate . September 19, 2011 . dead .
  4. Web site: Convicted felon Jack Shepard, exiled in Italy, files again to run for U.S. Senate . MinnPost . June 1, 2012 . July 24, 2014.
  5. Web site: Fugitive U.S. Senate candidate Shepard sues Huffington Post, says he's not an arsonist . MinnPost . June 27, 2012 . July 24, 2014.
  6. Web site: Bills wins GOP nod for U.S. Senate. Star Tribune.
  7. Web site: OPINION EXCHANGE | Minnesota's cookie-cutter GOP. Bob Carney. Jr. Star Tribune.
  8. Web site: Minn. Independence Party not in 2012 Senate race . Real Clear Politics . November 12, 2011 . November 15, 2011.
  9. Web site: Independence Party stays out of U.S. Senate race, opposes constitutional amendments . Politics in Minnesota . June 25, 2011 . July 17, 2011.
  10. Web site: Minn. 3rd party gets contested Senate primary . June 6, 2012 . June 11, 2012 . . . Patrick . Condon .
  11. Web site: Klobuchar, Bills debate unemployment, deficit. MPR News. September 18, 2012 .
  12. Web site: Federal Election Commission . July 25, 2012 . October 6, 2012 . Summary Reports Search . https://web.archive.org/web/20081006100202/http://fec.gov/finance/disclosure/srssea.shtml . October 6, 2008 . dead .
  13. Web site: Top Contributors. . September 3, 2012 .
  14. Web site: Top Industries. . September 3, 2012 . October 6, 2012 .
  15. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  16. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  17. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  18. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  19. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_060812.pdf Public Policy Polling
  20. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7eeab57a-eb71-47e3-aed7-5cab8493d94f Survey USA
  21. http://kstp.com/article/stories/S2761923.shtml?cat=89 KSTP/Survey USA
  22. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_091312.pdf Public Policy Polling
  23. http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/171439231.html?refer=y Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  24. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_10912.pdf Public Policy Polling
  25. http://kstp.com/article/stories/s2803512.shtml SurveyUSA/KSTP
  26. http://www.sctimes.com/article/20121030/NEWS01/310290053/SCSU-Survey-Klobuchar-leads-Bills-63-likely-voters?nclick_check=1 St. Cloud State U.
  27. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/minnesota/election_2012_minnesota_senate Rasmussen Reports
  28. http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/176350381.html?refer=y Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  29. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d67b9051-ae5f-4d9b-890a-eca249f45000 SurveyUSA
  30. http://kstp.com/news/stories/S2823379.shtml KSTP/SurveyUSA
  31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_1103.pdf Public Policy Polling
  32. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_1213.pdf Public Policy Polling
  33. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=98e06008-a002-4bda-b2dc-d5093903734a Survey USA
  34. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012312.pdf Public Policy Polling
  35. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2911f444-ad7c-40e3-8060-4a9a7b185cc2 Survey USA
  36. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_12071023.pdf Public Policy Polling
  37. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_0602.pdf Public Policy Polling
  38. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.