2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings explained

Election Name:2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Country:United States
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Next Year:2014

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 6, 2012, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2012 presidential election and the 2012 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Election ratings

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

DistrictCPVIIncumbentPrevious
result
Cook
[1]
Rothenberg
[2]
Sabato
[3]
RCP
[4]
Roll Call
[5]
NYT
[6]
The Hill
[7]
Winner
Paul Gosar (R) data-sort-value=49.7 49.7% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Ron Barber (D) data-sort-value=-52.3 52.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Ron Barber (D)
David Schweikert (R) data-sort-value=52.0 52.0% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Kyrsten Sinema (D)
Rick Crawford (R) data-sort-value=51.8 51.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Rick Crawford (R)
Mike Ross (D) data-sort-value=-57.5 57.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tom Cotton (R)
John Garamendi (D) data-sort-value=-58.8 58.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John Garamendi (D)
Dan Lungren (R) data-sort-value=50.1 50.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Ami Bera (D)
Jerry McNerney (D) data-sort-value=-48.0 48.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jerry McNerney (D)
Jeff Denham (R) data-sort-value=64.6 64.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jeff Denham (R)
Jim Costa (D) data-sort-value=-51.7 51.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jim Costa (D)
(New seat)data-sort-value=1 David Valadao (R)
Lois Capps (D) data-sort-value=-57.8 57.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Lois Capps (D)
Elton Gallegly (R) data-sort-value=59.9 59.9% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Julia Brownley (D)
Mary Bono (R) data-sort-value=51.4 51.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Raul Ruiz (D)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Mark Takano (D)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Alan Lowenthal (D)
Brian Bilbray (R) data-sort-value=56.6 56.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Scott Peters (D)
Scott Tipton (R) data-sort-value=50.1 50.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Scott Tipton (R)
Mike Coffman (R) data-sort-value=65.7 65.7% Rdata-sort-value=1 Mike Coffman (R)
Ed Perlmutter (D) data-sort-value=-53.4 53.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Ed Perlmutter (D)
Jim Himes (D) data-sort-value=-53.1 53.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jim Himes (D)
Chris Murphy (D) data-sort-value=-54.1 54.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Elizabeth Esty (D)
Steve Southerland (R) data-sort-value=53.6 53.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Steve Southerland (R)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Alan Grayson (D)
Daniel Webster (R) data-sort-value=56.1 56.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Daniel Webster (R)
Bill Young (R) data-sort-value=65.9 65.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Bill Young (R)
Vern Buchanan (R) data-sort-value=68.9 68.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Vern Buchanan (R)
Tom Rooney (R) data-sort-value=66.9 66.9% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Patrick Murphy (D)
Allen West (R) data-sort-value=54.4 54.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Lois Frankel (D)
David Rivera (R) data-sort-value=52.2 52.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Joe Garcia (D)
John Barrow (D) data-sort-value=-56.6 56.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John Barrow (D)
Peter Roskam (R) data-sort-value=63.7 63.7% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Tammy Duckworth (D)
Bob Dold (R) data-sort-value=51.1 51.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Brad Schneider (D)
Judy Biggert (R) data-sort-value=63.8 63.8% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Bill Foster (D)
Jerry Costello (D) data-sort-value=-59.8 59.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 William Enyart (D)
(New seat)data-sort-value=1 Rodney Davis (R)
Bobby Schilling (R) data-sort-value=52.6 52.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Cheri Bustos (D)
Joe Donnelly (D) data-sort-value=-48.2 48.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jackie Walorski (R)
Larry Bucshon (R) data-sort-value=57.6 57.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Larry Bucshon (R)
Bruce Braley (D) data-sort-value=-49.5 49.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bruce Braley (D)
Dave Loebsack (D) data-sort-value=-55.4 55.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Dave Loebsack (D)
Leonard Boswell (D) data-sort-value=-48.2 48.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tom Latham (R)
Tom Latham (R) data-sort-value=65.8 65.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Steve King (R)
Ben Chandler (D) data-sort-value=-50.1 50.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Andy Barr (R)
Mike Michaud (D) data-sort-value=-55.1 55.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Mike Michaud (D)
Roscoe Bartlett (R) data-sort-value=61.5 61.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Delaney (D)
John F. Tierney (D) data-sort-value=-56.9 56.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John F. Tierney (D)
Dan Benishek (R) data-sort-value=51.9 51.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Dan Benishek (R)
Justin Amash (R) data-sort-value=59.7 59.7% Rdata-sort-value=1 Justin Amash (R)
Fred Upton (R) data-sort-value=62.0 62.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Fred Upton (R)
Tim Walberg (R) data-sort-value=50.2 50.2% Rdata-sort-value=1 Tim Walberg (R)
(Vacant) data-sort-value=59.3 59.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Kerry Bentivolio (R)
John Kline (R) data-sort-value=63.3 63.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 John Kline (R)
Michele Bachmann (R) data-sort-value=52.5 52.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Michele Bachmann (R)
Collin Peterson (D) data-sort-value=-60.4 60.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Collin Peterson (D)
Chip Cravaack (R) data-sort-value=48.2 48.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Rick Nolan (D)
Denny Rehberg (R) data-sort-value=60.3 60.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Steve Daines (R)
Lee Terry (R) data-sort-value=60.8 60.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Lee Terry (R)
Joe Heck (R) data-sort-value=48.1 48.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Joe Heck (R)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Steven Horsford (D)
Frank Guinta (R) data-sort-value=54.0 54.0% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Charles Bass (R) data-sort-value=48.3 48.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Annie Kuster (D)
Jon Runyan (R) data-sort-value=50.0 50.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jon Runyan (R)
Scott Garrett (R) data-sort-value=65.0 65.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Scott Garrett (R)
Leonard Lance (R) data-sort-value=65.0 65.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Leonard Lance (R)
Bill Pascrell (D) data-sort-value=-62.7 62.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bill Pascrell (D)
Martin Heinrich (D) data-sort-value=-51.8 51.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Martin Heinrich (D)
Tim Bishop (D) data-sort-value=-50.2 50.2% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Tim Bishop (D)
Michael Grimm (R) data-sort-value=51.3 51.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Michael Grimm (R)
Nan Hayworth (R) data-sort-value=52.7 52.7% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Chris Gibson (R) data-sort-value=54.9 54.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Chris Gibson (R)
Bill Owens (D) data-sort-value=-47.5 47.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bill Owens (D)
Richard Hanna (R) data-sort-value=53.1 53.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Richard Hanna (R)
Tom Reed (R) data-sort-value=52.1 52.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Tom Reed (R)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R) data-sort-value=50.2 50.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Dan Maffei (D)
Louise Slaughter (D) data-sort-value=-64.9 64.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Louise Slaughter (D)
Kathy Hochul (D) data-sort-value=-47.2 47.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Chris Collins (R)
Mike McIntyre (D) data-sort-value=-53.7 53.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Mike McIntyre (D)
Larry Kissell (D) data-sort-value=-53.0 53.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Richard Hudson (R)
Heath Shuler (D) data-sort-value=-54.3 54.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Mark Meadows (R)
Brad Miller (D) data-sort-value=-55.5 55.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 George Holding (R)
Rick Berg (R) data-sort-value=54.7 54.7% Rdata-sort-value=1 Kevin Cramer (R)
Bill Johnson (R) data-sort-value=50.2 50.2% Rdata-sort-value=1 Bill Johnson (R)
Bob Gibbs (R) data-sort-value=53.9 53.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Bob Gibbs (R)
Marcy Kaptur (D) data-sort-value=-59.4 59.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Marcy Kaptur (D)
Jim Renacci (R) data-sort-value=52.1 52.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jim Renacci (R)
Dan Boren (D) data-sort-value=-56.5 56.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Markwayne Mullin (R)
Kurt Schrader (D) data-sort-value=-51.3 51.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Kurt Schrader (D)
Jim Gerlach (R) data-sort-value=53.1 53.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jim Gerlach (R)
Pat Meehan (R) data-sort-value=54.9 54.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Pat Meehan (R)
Mike Fitzpatrick (R) data-sort-value=53.5 53.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
Lou Barletta (R) data-sort-value=54.7 54.7% Rdata-sort-value=1 Lou Barletta (R)
Jason Altmire (D) data-sort-value=-50.8 50.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Keith Rothfus (R)
Charlie Dent (R) data-sort-value=53.5 53.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Charlie Dent (R)
Tim Murphy (R) data-sort-value=67.3 67.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Tim Murphy (R)
David Cicilline (D) data-sort-value=-50.6 50.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 David Cicilline (D)
Kristi Noem (R) data-sort-value=48.1 48.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Kristi Noem (R)
Scott DesJarlais (R) data-sort-value=57.1 57.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Scott DesJarlais (R)
Michael McCaul (R) data-sort-value=64.7 64.7% Rdata-sort-value=1 Michael McCaul (R)
Ron Paul (R) data-sort-value=76.0 76.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Randy Weber (R)
Quico Canseco (R) data-sort-value=49.4 49.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Pete Gallego (D)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Filemon Vela Jr. (D)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Jim Matheson (D)
Scott Rigell (R) data-sort-value=53.1 53.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Scott Rigell (R)
Robert Hurt (R) data-sort-value=50.8 50.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Robert Hurt (R)
(Vacant) data-sort-value=-57.7 57.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Suzan DelBene (D)
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) data-sort-value=53.0 53.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
(New seat)data-sort-value=-1 Denny Heck (D)
Nick Rahall (D) data-sort-value=-56.0 56.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Nick Rahall (D)
Sean Duffy (R) data-sort-value=52.1 52.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Sean Duffy (R)
Reid Ribble (R) data-sort-value=55.9 55.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Reid Ribble (R)
Overall<--Coo-->R - 217
D - 174
44 tossups
R - 233
D - 185
18 tossups
R - 239
D - 196
R - 224
D - 178
33 tossups
R - 227
D -175
33 tossups
R - 227
D - 183
25 tossups
Republican retain
35 tossups
R - 234
D - 201

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 House Race Ratings for November 5, 2012 . cookpolitical.com . Cook Political Report . 5 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141028053940/http://cookpolitical.com/house/charts/race-ratings/5105 . 28 October 2014 . 5 November 2012.
  2. Web site: House Ratings . rothenbergpoliticalreport.com . Rothenberg Political Report . 6 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121111195527/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house . 11 November 2012 . 2 November 2012.
  3. Web site: Larry J. Sabato . Kyle Kondik . Geoffrey Skelley . Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term . centerforpolitics.org . University of Virginia . 4 December 2023 . 5 November 2012.
  4. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html
  5. Web site: Race Ratings Chart for 2012 House Elections . rollcall.com/ . Roll Call . 5 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121109073755/https://rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html . 9 November 2012.
  6. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings
  7. Web site: House Ratings . The Hill . November 4, 2012. November 3, 2012.