2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings explained

Election Name:2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Country:United States
Previous Election:2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2012 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Next Year:2012

The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 2, 2010, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These midterm elections took place nearly halfway through the first term of Democratic President Barack Obama. The winners served in the 112th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections.

Predictions on overall outcome

These were predictions of the outcome of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections.

Election ratings

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

The following table contains the final ratings of the competitiveness of selected races according to noted political analysts. Races which were considered safe for the incumbent's party are not included. Incumbents who did not run for re-election have parentheses around their name.

DistrictCPVIIncumbentPrevious
result		Cook
[14] 		Rothenberg
[15] 		Sabato
[16] 		RCP
[17] 		CQ Politics
[18] 		NYT
[19] 		538
[20] 		Winner
Bobby Bright (D) data-sort-value=51.0 51.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Martha Roby (R)
Parker Griffith (R) data-sort-value=51.5 51.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Mo Brooks (R)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) data-sort-value=55.9 55.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Paul Gosar (R)
John Shadegg (R) data-sort-value=-54.1 54.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Ben Quayle (R)
Harry Mitchell (D) data-sort-value=53.2 53.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 David Schweikert (R)
Raúl Grijalva (D) data-sort-value=63.3 63.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Raúl Grijalva (D)
Gabby Giffords (D) data-sort-value=54.7 54.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Gabby Giffords (D)
Robert Marion Berry (D) data-sort-value=100 100% Ddata-sort-value=1 Rick Crawford (R)
Vic Snyder (D) data-sort-value=76.5 76.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tim Griffin (R)
Mike Ross (D) data-sort-value=86.2 86.2% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Mike Ross (D)
Dan Lungren (R) data-sort-value=-49.5 49.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Dan Lungren (R)
Jerry McNerney (D) data-sort-value=55.3 55.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jerry McNerney (D)
Dennis Cardoza (D) data-sort-value=100 100% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Dennis Cardoza (D)
Jim Costa (D) data-sort-value=74.4 74.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jim Costa (D)
Ken Calvert (R) data-sort-value=-49.5 49.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Ken Calvert (R)
Mary Bono (R) data-sort-value=-58.3 58.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Mary Bono (R)
Loretta Sanchez (D) data-sort-value=69.5 69.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Loretta Sanchez (D)
John Salazar (D) data-sort-value=61.6 61.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 Scott Tipton (R)
Betsy Markey (D) data-sort-value=56.2 56.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Cory Gardner (R)
Ed Perlmutter (D) data-sort-value=63.5 63.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Ed Perlmutter (D)
John Larson (D) data-sort-value=71.6 71.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John Larson (D)
Joe Courtney (D) data-sort-value=65.7 65.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Joe Courtney (D)
Jim Himes (D) data-sort-value=51.3 51.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jim Himes (D)
Chris Murphy (D) data-sort-value=54.1 54.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Chris Murphy (D)
Mike Castle (R) data-sort-value=-61.1 61.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Carney (D)
Allen Boyd (D) data-sort-value=61.9 61.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Steve Southerland (R)
Alan Grayson (D) data-sort-value=52.0 52.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Daniel Webster (R)
Adam Putnam (R) data-sort-value=-57.5 57.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Dennis A. Ross (R)
Ron Klein (D) data-sort-value=54.7 54.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Allen West (R)
Suzanne Kosmas (D) data-sort-value=57.2 57.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Sandy Adams (R)
Mario Díaz-Balart (R) data-sort-value=-53.1 53.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 David Rivera (R)
Sanford Bishop (D) data-sort-value=68.9 68.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Sanford Bishop (D)
Jim Marshall (D) data-sort-value=57.2 57.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Austin Scott (R)
John Barrow (D) data-sort-value=66.0 66.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John Barrow (D)
Charles Djou (R) data-sort-value=-39.4 39.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Walt Minnick (D) data-sort-value=50.6 50.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 Raúl Labrador (R)
Melissa Bean (D) data-sort-value=60.7 60.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Joe Walsh (R)
Mark Kirk (R) data-sort-value=-52.6 52.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Bob Dold (R)
Debbie Halvorson (D) data-sort-value=58.4 58.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Adam Kinzinger (R)
Bill Foster (D) data-sort-value=57.7 57.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Randy Hultgren (R)
Phil Hare (D) data-sort-value=99.8 99.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Bobby Schilling (R)
Joe Donnelly (D) data-sort-value=67.1 67.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Joe Donnelly (D)
Brad Ellsworth (D) data-sort-value=64.7 64.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Larry Bucshon (R)
Baron Hill (D) data-sort-value=57.8 57.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Todd Young (R)
Bruce Braley (D) data-sort-value=64.6 64.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bruce Braley (D)
David Loebsack (D) data-sort-value=57.2 57.2% Ddata-sort-value=-1 David Loebsack (D)
Leonard Boswell (D) data-sort-value=56.4 56.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Leonard Boswell (D)
Dennis Moore (D) data-sort-value=56.4 56.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Kevin Yoder (R)
John Yarmuth (D) data-sort-value=59.4 59.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John Yarmuth (D)
Ben Chandler (D) data-sort-value=64.7 64.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Ben Chandler (D)
Joseph Cao (R) data-sort-value=-49.5 49.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Cedric Richmond (D)
Charlie Melançon (D) data-sort-value=100 100% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jeff Landry (R)
Chellie Pingree (D) data-sort-value=54.9 54.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Chellie Pingree (D)
Mike Michaud (D) data-sort-value=67.4 67.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Mike Michaud (D)
Frank Kratovil (D) data-sort-value=49.1 49.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Andrew P. Harris (R)
Barney Frank (D) data-sort-value=68.0 68.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Barney Frank (D)
Niki Tsongas (D) data-sort-value=100 100% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Niki Tsongas (D)
John F. Tierney (D) data-sort-value=70.4 70.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John F. Tierney (D)
Bill Delahunt (D) data-sort-value=100 100% Ddata-sort-value=-1 William R. Keating (D)
Bart Stupak (D) data-sort-value=65.0 65.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Dan Benishek (R)
Mark Schauer (D) data-sort-value=48.8 48.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tim Walberg (R)
Gary Peters (D) data-sort-value=52.1 52.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Gary Peters (D)
John D. Dingell Jr. (D) data-sort-value=70.7 70.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 John D. Dingell Jr. (D)
Tim Walz (D) data-sort-value=62.5 62.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Tim Walz (D)
Michele Bachmann (R) data-sort-value=-46.4 46.4% Rdata-sort-value=1 Michele Bachmann (R)
Collin Peterson (D) data-sort-value=72.2 72.2% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Collin Peterson (D)
Jim Oberstar (D) data-sort-value=67.7 67.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Chip Cravaack (R)
Travis Childers (D) data-sort-value=54.5 54.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Alan Nunnelee (R)
Bennie Thompson (D) data-sort-value=69.1 69.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bennie Thompson (D)
Gene Taylor (D) data-sort-value=74.5 74.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Steven Palazzo (R)
Russ Carnahan (D) data-sort-value=66.4 66.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Russ Carnahan (D)
Ike Skelton (D) data-sort-value=65.9 65.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Vicky Hartzler (R)
Emanuel Cleaver (D) data-sort-value=64.4 64.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Lee Terry (R) data-sort-value=-51.9 51.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Lee Terry (R)
Dina Titus (D) data-sort-value=47.4 47.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Joe Heck (R)
Carol Shea-Porter (D) data-sort-value=51.7 51.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Frank Guinta (R)
Paul Hodes (D) data-sort-value=56.4 56.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Charles Bass (R)
John Adler (D) data-sort-value=52.1 52.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jon Runyan (R)
Frank Pallone (D) data-sort-value=66.9 66.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Frank Pallone (D)
Rush Holt Jr. (D) data-sort-value=63.1 63.1% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Rush Holt Jr. (D)
Martin Heinrich (D) data-sort-value=55.7 55.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Martin Heinrich (D)
Harry Teague (D) data-sort-value=56.0 56.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Steve Pearce (R)
Ben Ray Lujan (D) data-sort-value=56.7 56.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Ben Ray Lujan (D)
Tim Bishop (D) data-sort-value=58.4 58.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Tim Bishop (D)
Steve Israel (D) data-sort-value=66.9 66.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Steve Israel (D)
Carolyn McCarthy (D) data-sort-value=64.0 64.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Carolyn McCarthy (D)
Michael McMahon (D) data-sort-value=60.9 60.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Michael Grimm (R)
John Hall (D) data-sort-value=58.7 58.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Nan Hayworth (R)
Scott Murphy (D) data-sort-value=50.2 50.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Chris Gibson (R)
Maurice Hinchey (D) data-sort-value=64.0 64.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Maurice Hinchey (D)
Bill Owens (D) data-sort-value=48.3 48.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bill Owens (D)
Mike Arcuri (D) data-sort-value=52.0 52.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Richard Hanna (R)
Dan Maffei (D) data-sort-value=54.8 54.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Ann Marie Buerkle (R)
Brian Higgins (D) data-sort-value=74.4 74.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Brian Higgins (D)
Vacant data-sort-value=51.0 51.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tom Reed (R)
Bob Etheridge (D) data-sort-value=66.9 66.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Renee Ellmers (R)
David Price (D) data-sort-value=63.3 63.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 David Price (D)
Mike McIntyre (D) data-sort-value=68.8 68.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Mike McIntyre (D)
Larry Kissell (D) data-sort-value=53.0 53.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Larry Kissell (D)
Heath Shuler (D) data-sort-value=62.0 62.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Heath Shuler (D)
Brad Miller (D) data-sort-value=65.9 65.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Brad Miller (D)
Earl Pomeroy (D) data-sort-value=62.0 62.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Rick Berg (R)
Steve Driehaus (D) data-sort-value=52.4 52.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Steve Chabot (R)
Charlie Wilson (D) data-sort-value=62.3 62.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Bill Johnson (R)
Dennis Kucinich (D) data-sort-value=57.0 57.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Dennis Kucinich (D)
Pat Tiberi (R) data-sort-value=-54.8 54.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Pat Tiberi (R)
Betty Sutton (D) data-sort-value=57.0 57.0% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Betty Sutton (D)
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) data-sort-value=45.9 45.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Steve Stivers (R)
John Boccieri (D) data-sort-value=55.4 55.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jim Renacci (R)
Zack Space (D) data-sort-value=59.9 59.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Bob Gibbs (R)
Dan Boren (D) data-sort-value=70.5 70.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Dan Boren (D)
David Wu (D) data-sort-value=71.5 71.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 David Wu (D)
Peter DeFazio (D) data-sort-value=82.3 82.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Peter DeFazio (D)
Kurt Schrader (D) data-sort-value=54.3 54.3% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Kurt Schrader (D)
Kathy Dahlkemper (D) data-sort-value=51.2 51.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Mike Kelly (R)
Jason Altmire (D) data-sort-value=55.9 55.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jason Altmire (D)
Jim Gerlach (R) data-sort-value=-52.1 52.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jim Gerlach (R)
Joe Sestak (D) data-sort-value=59.6 59.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 Pat Meehan (R)
Patrick Murphy (D) data-sort-value=56.8 56.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
Chris Carney (D) data-sort-value=56.3 56.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tom Marino (R)
Paul Kanjorski (D) data-sort-value=51.6 51.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 Lou Barletta (R)
Mark Critz (D) data-sort-value=52.6 52.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Mark Critz (D)
Allyson Schwartz (D) data-sort-value=62.8 62.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Allyson Schwartz (D)
Charlie Dent (R) data-sort-value=-58.6 58.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Charlie Dent (R)
Tim Holden (D) data-sort-value=63.7 63.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Tim Holden (D)
Patrick J. Kennedy (D) data-sort-value=68.6 68.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 David Cicilline (D)
John Spratt (D) data-sort-value= 61.661.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 Mick Mulvaney (R)
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) data-sort-value=67.6 67.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 Kristi Noem (R)
Lincoln Davis (D) data-sort-value=58.8 58.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Scott DesJarlais (R)
Jim Cooper (D) data-sort-value=65.9 65.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jim Cooper (D)
Bart Gordon (D) data-sort-value=74.4 74.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Diane Black (R)
John Tanner (D) data-sort-value=100 100% Ddata-sort-value=1 Stephen Fincher (R)
Rubén Hinojosa (D) data-sort-value=65.7 65.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Rubén Hinojosa (D)
Chet Edwards (D) data-sort-value=53.0 53.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Bill Flores (R)
Ciro Rodriguez (D) data-sort-value=55.8 55.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Quico Canseco (R)
Lloyd Doggett (D) data-sort-value=65.8 65.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Lloyd Doggett (D)
Solomon P. Ortiz (D) data-sort-value=57.9 57.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Blake Farenthold (R)
Jim Matheson (D) data-sort-value=63.4 63.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Jim Matheson (D)
Glenn Nye (D) data-sort-value=52.4 52.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Scott Rigell (R)
Tom Perriello (D) data-sort-value=50.1 50.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Robert Hurt (R)
Rick Boucher (D) data-sort-value=97.1 97.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Morgan Griffith (R)
Gerry Connolly (D) data-sort-value=54.7 54.7% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Gerry Connolly (D)
Rick Larsen (D) data-sort-value=62.4 62.4% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Rick Larsen (D)
Brian Baird (D) data-sort-value=64.0 64.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Norm Dicks (D) data-sort-value=66.9 66.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Norm Dicks (D)
Dave Reichert (R) data-sort-value=-52.8 52.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Dave Reichert (R)
Adam Smith (D) data-sort-value=65.5 65.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Adam Smith (D)
Alan Mollohan (D) data-sort-value=99.9 99.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 David McKinley (R)
Nick Rahall (D) data-sort-value=66.9 66.9% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Nick Rahall (D)
Ron Kind (D) data-sort-value=63.2 63.2% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Ron Kind (D)
Dave Obey (D) data-sort-value=60.8 60.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Sean Duffy (R)
Steve Kagen (D) data-sort-value=54.0 54.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Reid Ribble (R)
Overall<--Coo-->R - 204
D - 181
50 tossups		R - 223
D - 194
18 tossups		R - 237
D - 198		R - 225
D - 168
43 tossups		R - 199
D - 195
41 tossups		D - 190
R - 174
42 tossups		R - 216
D - 200
19 tossups		R - 242
D - 193

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Battle For The House . Realclearpolitics.com . November 4, 2010.
  2. News: Silver . Nate . The Ultimate Hour-by-Hour, District-by-District Election Guide . Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com . October 31, 2010 . November 4, 2010.
  3. Web site: Patrick . Ishmael . Game Time: Final House rankings and printable cheat sheet . . October 31, 2010 . November 24, 2010 . December 3, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101203150242/http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/31/game-time-final-house-rankings-and-printable-cheat-sheet/ . dead .
  4. Web site: What To Look For On Election Night . . November 2, 2010 . November 24, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20101104233038/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/october_2010/what_to_look_for_on_election_night . November 4, 2010.
  5. Web site: Patrick . Ishmael . Eight days out, GOP still poised to gain 60+ House seats . Hot Air . October 25, 2010 . November 24, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101129060014/http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2010/10/25/eight-days-out-gop-still-poised-to-gain-60-house-seats/ . November 29, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  6. Web site: 2010 House Ratings . Centerforpolitics.org . November 1, 2010 . November 4, 2010.
  7. Web site: Cook Political Report. Cook Political Ups Projected Democratic Losses To 48 to 60. October 26, 2010. October 26, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20101029154911/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/10/cook-political-8.php. October 29, 2010. dead. mdy-all.
  8. Web site: Democrats Will Lose the House: Charlie Cook . Outsidethebeltway.com . February 22, 2010 . June 14, 2010.
  9. News: Scott Rasmussen . A Vote Against Dems, Not for the GOP . wsj.com . November 1, 2010 . November 4, 2010.
  10. Web site: House Ratings . rothenbergpoliticalreport.com . October 28, 2010 . November 4, 2010.
  11. Web site: Rothenberg . The . The Rothenberg Political Report: New Print Edition: House Overview . Rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com . April 14, 2010 . June 14, 2010.
  12. Web site: CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234534/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house. October 28, 2010 . Innovation.cqpolitics.com.
  13. Web site: CQ Politics | House Race Ratings Map for 2010 . Innovation.cqpolitics.com . July 11, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100710191959/http://innovation.cqpolitics.com/atlas/house2010_rr . July 10, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  14. Web site: The Cook Political Report – Charts – 2010 House Competitive Races . Cookpolitical.com . November 1, 2010 . November 1, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101104002959/http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2010-11-01_12-12-36.php . November 4, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  15. Web site: Rothenberg Political Report . House Ratings . Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com . November 1, 2010 . November 1, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20101124232121/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house . November 24, 2010.
  16. Web site: Larry J. Sabato . Isaac Wood . Election Eve Special . centerforpolitics.org/ . University of Virginia . 30 November 2023 . 1 November 2010.
  17. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html RealClearPolitics
  18. Web site: 2010 House Ratings Chart . CQ Politics . November 1, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234534/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house. October 28, 2010.
  19. Web site: House Race Ratings . nytimes.com . New York Times . 9 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101107095111/http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/house . 7 November 2010.
  20. Web site: Nate Silver . House Race Ratings . nytimes.com/ . FiveThirtyEight . 30 November 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101107220216/http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/house . 7 November 2010 . 7 November 2010.

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