2010 Oregon gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2010 Oregon gubernatorial election
Country:Oregon
Type:presidential
Ongoing:No
Previous Election:2006 Oregon gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2014 Oregon gubernatorial election
Next Year:2014
Election Date:November 2, 2010
Image1:File:Governor Kitzhaber (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:John Kitzhaber
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Alliance1:Independent Party of Oregon
Popular Vote1:716,525
Percentage1:49.29%
Nominee2:Chris Dudley
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:694,287
Percentage2:47.76%
Map Size:250px
Governor
Before Election:Ted Kulongoski
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:John Kitzhaber
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on . The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate administered John KitzhaberBill BradburyUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & MidghallMay 8–10, 2010 align=center53%23%22%
Survey USAMay 7–9, 2010 align=center59%25%12%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate administered Chris DudleyAllen AlleyJohn LimBill SizemoreUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & MidghallMay 8–10, 2010 align=center33%23%8%6%24%
Survey USAMay 7–9, 2010 align=center42%24%8%8%14%

Results

Independent Party primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.[3] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,[4] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.[5] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.[3]

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.[6] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.[7]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on .

Newspaper endorsements

NewspaperEndorsement
The Oregonian (Portland)John Kitzhaber[8]
Willamette Week (Portland)John Kitzhaber[9]
Portland TribuneJohn Kitzhaber[10]
The Register-Guard (Eugene)John Kitzhaber[11]
Statesman Journal (Salem)Chris Dudley[12]
Mail Tribune (Medford)John Kitzhaber[13]
The Bulletin (Bend)Chris Dudley[14]
East Oregonian (Pendleton)John Kitzhaber[15]
The Lake Oswego ReviewJohn Kitzhaber[16]
The News-Review (Roseburg)John Kitzhaber[17]
The Outlook (Gresham)John Kitzhaber[18]
The Daily AstorianJohn Kitzhaber[19]
Corvallis Gazette-TimesJohn Kitzhaber[20]
News-Register (McMinnville)Chris Dudley[21]
The Sandy PostJohn Kitzhaber[22]
Beaverton Valley TimesJohn Kitzhaber[23]
West Linn TidingsJohn Kitzhaber[24]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[25] October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[26] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[27] November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[29] October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administered Margin of errorJohn
Kitzhaber (D)
Chris
Dudley (R)
Other candidate(s)Undecided
Davis & HibbittsOctober 30–31, 2010± 3.1% align=center46%43%
Survey USAOctober 23–28, 2010± 4.2% align=center48%41%2%8%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 25, 2010± 4.0%46% align=center49%3%3%
HibbittsOctober 24–25, 2010± 4.4%42% align=center45%2%12%
Elway ResearchOctober 18–19, 2010± 4.4% align=center45%44%3%5%
Public Policy PollingOctober 16–17, 2010± 2.8% align=center48%47%5%
Survey USAOctober 12–14, 2010± 3.9% align=center46%45%4%5%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 10, 2010± 4.0% align=center48%46%3%4%
Survey USASeptember 12–14, 2010± 4.2%43% align=center49%5%3%
Riley ResearchAugust 31 – September 9, 2010± 5.0% align=center40%39%5%16%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 8, 2010± 4.0%44% align=center49%2%5%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 22, 2010± 4.0%44% align=center45%3%8%
Grove InsightAugust 18–21, 2010± 4.0% align=center44%35%4%14%
Survey USAJuly 25–27, 2010± 4.2%44% align=center46%7%4%
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 26, 2010± 4.0%44% align=center47%5%4%
Magellan StrategiesJune 28, 2010± 3.2%40% align=center41%10%9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall June 21, 2010unk41%41%6%12%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 17, 2010± 4.5%45% align=center47%4%4%
Survey USAJune 7–9, 2010± 4.2%40% align=center47%6%7%
Rasmussen ReportsMay 20, 2010± 4.5%44% align=center45%4%6%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 26, 2010± 4.0%41%41%4%4%
Moore InsightFebruary 20–21, 2010± 4.0% align=center45%33%21%
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 17, 2010± 4.5% align=center42%36%7%15%

Results

County results

Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.

CountyKitzhaberVotesDudleyVotesKordVotesWagnerVotesVariousVotesTotal
Baker26.8%1,94968.1%4,8162.6%1872.3%1660.3%217,276
Benton59.4%21,49838.0%13,7671.1%3991.2%4480.2%7736,189
Clackamas44.3%69,25053.4%83,5161.1%1,6861.0%1,5470.2%288156,287
Clatsop51.3%7,65445.5%6,7921.3%1961.6%1660.2%3714,913
Columbia44.4%8,97351.0%10,3022.4%4931.8%3680.3%5420,190
Coos41.3%10,45653.9%13,6522.4%6182.3%5830.1%3425,343
Crook26.1%2,31470.3%6,2311.7%1521.6%1440.2%218,862
Curry38.8%3,98656.0%5,7612.7%2752.4%2450.1%1410,281
Deschutes38.1%24,28959.1%37,7061.3%8611.3%8150.2%11263,783
Douglas32.5%14,07263.3%27,4382.2%9521.9%8070.2%6643,335
Gilliam32.0%30864.4%6202.6%250.7%70.2%2962
Grant21.6%74974.3%2,5762.5%861.4%500.2%83,469
Harney23.8%80072.3%2,4362.3%761.4%480.2%83,368
Hood River56.7%4,77840.7%3,4341.1%951.2%1030.2%178,427
Jackson41.7%32,36055.0%42,7151.8%1,3891.4%1,1170.1%10977,690
Jefferson32.3%2,13264.2%4,2401.7%1101.7%1100.2%106,602
Josephine34.7%11,55860.2%20,0253.1%1,0181.9%6460.1%4333,290
Klamath25.1%5,82070.4%16,2952.4%5601.8%4280.2%5523,158
Lake21.0%65874.2%2,3232.6%802.0%640.3%63,131
Lane57.0%81,73140.0%57,3941.3%1,8551.4%2,0450.3%488143,513
Lincoln53.0%10,48443.2%8,5401.8%3472.0%3890.2%3119,791
Linn34.8%14,46661.1%25,3702.2%8981.7%7080.3%11041,552
Malheur24.4%1,88470.4%5,4403.2%2462.0%1570.1%57,732
Marion44.4%44,79552.7%53,1771.5%1,5301.2%1,1920.2%242100,936
Morrow26.8%85068.8%2,1842.7%871.5%480.2%63,175
Multnomah70.6%198,15727.4%76,9150.8%2,1491.0%2,8790.3%750280,850
Polk43.4%12,89953.7%15,9661.5%4561.1%3360.2%6729,724
Sherman26.3%23870.1%6341.7%151.9%170.1%1905
Tillamook46.0%5,07250.8%5,6041.5%1631.6%1730.2%1911,031
Umatilla32.1%6,32163.8%12,5742.2%4411.6%3200.2%4719,703
Union31.6%3,36664.5%6,8692.1%2211.5%1650.3%3110,652
Wallowa28.6%1,08867.9%2,5812.1%791.1%430.2%93,800
Wasco43.2%4,02453.1%4,9381.7%1611.7%1560.3%279,306
Washington49.6%92,81148.1%89,9261.1%1,9771.1%1,9830.2%336187,033
Wheeler28.6%21666.3%5002.9%222.0%150.1%1754
Yamhill39.7%14,51957.2%20,8931.6%5701.3%4920.2%6136,535

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill . Jeff . Mapes . . October 12, 2010 . July 8, 2009 .
  2. News: The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race . . November 3, 2010 . November 3, 2010 .
  3. Web site: IPO primary FAQ . October 12, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100925031701/http://indparty.com/node/239 . September 25, 2010 . dead .
  4. News: E-voting not ready yet . The Oregonian . August 11, 2010 .
  5. Web site: Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary . Ballot Access News . August 11, 2010 .
  6. News: John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate. Esteve. Harry. The Oregonian. October 1, 2010. October 1, 2010.
  7. News: Dudley doubles donor dollars. Steves. David. September 29, 2010. The Register-Guard. October 1, 2010.
  8. News: The Oregonian. Portland. Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor. October 10, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  9. News: Willamette Week. Portland. Save Our State!. October 13, 2010. November 7, 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20101102210328/http://wweek.com/editorial/3649/14626/. November 2, 2010. dead.
  10. News: Portland Tribune. Let Kitzhaber steer state into future. October 14, 2010. November 7, 2010. Pamplin Media Group.
  11. News: The Register-Guard. Eugene. Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face. October 17, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  12. News: Statesman Journal. Salem. Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state. October 10, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  13. News: Mail Tribune. Medford. Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience. October 17, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  14. News: The Bulletin. Bend. Pick Dudley for governor. October 15, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  15. News: East Oregonian. Pendleton. Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future. October 17, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  16. News: The Lake Oswego Review. It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest. October 21, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  17. News: The News-Review. Roseburg. Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face. October 24, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  18. News: The Outlook. Gresham. Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change. October 16, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  19. News: The Daily Astorian. John Kitzhaber for governor. October 7, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  20. News: Corvallis Gazette-Times. Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon. October 21, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  21. News: News-Register. McMinnville. Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election. October 30, 2010. November 6, 2010.
  22. News: Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change. The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. April 20, 2013. October 20, 2010.
  23. News: Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience. Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. April 20, 2013. October 14, 2010.
  24. News: Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon. West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. April 20, 2013. October 21, 2010.
  25. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
  26. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
  27. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
  28. Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . . October 28, 2010.
  29. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .