2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election explained

Election Name:2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Country:North Rhine-Westphalia
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2005 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Previous Year:2005
Next Election:2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election
Next Year:2012
Seats For Election:All 181 seats in the Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia
Majority Seats:91
Election Date:9 May 2010
Turnout:7,870,412 (59.3% 3.7pp)
Candidate1:Jürgen Rüttgers
Party1:Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Last Election1:89 seats, 44.8%
Seats1:67
Seat Change1: 22
Popular Vote1:2,681,700
Percentage1:34.6%
Swing1: 10.3pp
Candidate2:Hannelore Kraft
Party2:Social Democratic Party of Germany
Last Election2:74 seats, 37.1%
Seats2:67
Seat Change2: 7
Popular Vote2:2,675,818
Percentage2:34.5%
Swing2: 2.6pp
Candidate3:Sylvia Löhrmann
Party3:Alliance 90/The Greens
Last Election3:12 seats, 6.2%
Seats3:23
Seat Change3: 11
Popular Vote3:941,162
Percentage3:12.1%
Swing3: 5.9pp
Candidate4:Andreas Pinkwart
Party4:Free Democratic Party (Germany)
Last Election4:12 seats, 6.2%
Seats4:13
Seat Change4: 1
Popular Vote4:522,229
Percentage4:6.7%
Swing4: 0.5pp
Candidate5:Bärbel Beuermann
Party5:The Left (Germany)
Last Election5:0 seats, 3.1%
Seats5:11
Seat Change5: 11
Popular Vote5:435,627
Percentage5:5.6%
Swing5: 2.5pp
Map Size:400px
Government
Before Election:Rüttgers cabinet
Before Party:CDUFDP
Posttitle:Government after election
After Election:First Kraft cabinet
After Party:SPD–Green

The 2010 North Rhine-Westphalia state election was held on 9 May 2010 to elect the 15th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Free Democratic Party (FDP) led by Minister-President Jürgen Rüttgers.

The election was a defeat for the incumbent government, but failed to produce a clear outcome. The CDU suffered its worst-ever result, falling over ten percentage points to just 34.6%. The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Hannelore Kraft also recorded a decline and finished just 0.1% behind the CDU; both parties tied on 67 seats. The Greens recorded their best result to date with 12%, while the FDP achieved a small swing to 6.7%. The newly-formed Left party won 5.6% and 11 seats. Neither the incumbent CDU–FDP government (80 seats) or prospective SDP–Green coalition (90 seats) achieved a majority in the Landtag, with The Left narrowly holding balance of power.

Complex talks took place between all five parties, with the CDU and SPD each aiming for a coalition with the Greens and FDP, or a grand coalition between the two of them. The SPD and Greens also held talks with The Left. All discussions ended without success by mid-June. On the 17th, the SPD and Greens announced they would attempt to form a minority government led by Hannelore Kraft. They ruled out a confidence arrangement with The Left, but nonetheless relied on the party's abstention for the government's investiture to succeed. Kraft was elected Minister-President on 14 July on the second ballot, which required only a simple majority, with 90 votes in favour, 80 against, and eleven abstentions.

Electoral system

The Landtag is elected via mixed-member proportional representation. 128 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. 53 members are then allocated using compensatory proportional representation. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates in single-member constituencies, and the "second vote" for party lists, which are used to fill the remaining seats in a way that achieves proportionality overall. The minimum size of the Landtag is 181 members, but if overhang seats are present, proportional leveling seats will be added to ensure proportionality. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.[1] This was the first state election in which voters had two votes.

Background

See main article: 2005 North Rhine-Westphalia state election. In the previous election held on 22 May 2005, the SPD suffered a landslide defeat and was ousted from government for the first time since 1966. They received only 37% of votes while the CDU emerged in a strong first place with almost 45%; the FDP and Greens each took 6%. The CDU and FDP subsequently formed a coalition government under Jürgen Rüttgers.

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Landtag of North Rhine-Westphalia.

NameIdeologyLead
candidate
2005 result
Votes (%)Seats
bgcolor= CDUChristian Democratic Union of Germany
Christian democracyJürgen Rüttgers44.8%
bgcolor= SPDSocial Democratic Party of Germany
Social democracyHannelore Kraft37.1%
bgcolor= GRÜNEAlliance 90/The Greens
Green politicsSylvia Löhrmann6.2%
bgcolor= FDPFree Democratic Party
Classical liberalismAndreas Pinkwart6.2%

A total of 25 parties ran state lists in the election. Due to the newly-introduced two vote system, parties were able to stand their lists on ballots statewide without running candidates in every constituency, as had been the case previously. 1,000 signatures were required for a party to run a state list. In addition to the parties running lists, some stood only constituency candidates. A number of independent candidates also ran.

Campaign

Education policy was an important topic in the election campaign. The government wanted to retain the existing three-tier school system, and pointed out that during their tenure attendance had improved and many new teaching positions had been created. The opposition criticised the state's poor performance in PISA studies, and campaigned for the establishment of schools which integrated more younger and older students to improve efficiency, as well as the abolition of tuition fees.[2]

The CDU was embroiled in a financing scandal in the lead up to the campaign, with companies accused of paying bribes in exchange for meetings with Minister-President Rüttgers. A Bundestag investigation found no violation of party finance laws.[3] Shortly before the election, another scandal surfaced in which the CDU was accused of covertly commissioning a voters' initiative from a non-partisan communications agency, with the fundraising money allegedly used to pay for pro-Rüttgers newspaper ads under non-party branding.[4] The allegations were sourced from intercepted emails from the NRW CDU and published mostly anonymously online. The CDU lodged a complaint with the state prosecutor over data breaches, but attributed the accusations to a malicious defamation campaign.[5]

Federal issues also impacted the campaign. A new federal coalition of the CDU and FDP had taken office about six months earlier. If the state government was defeated, the federal government would lose its majority in the Bundesrat, the upper house whose members mirror the composition of each state government. This could prevent the government from implementing some of its proposed projects, including a controversial possible extension to the lifespan of some nuclear power plants, which the SPD and Greens pointed out.[6] The federal government also delayed releasing its tax and budget plans until after the state election, which was widely criticised as a political play to avoid backlash from anticipated spending cuts.[7] Just a few weeks before the election, the government also agreed to help finance a €110 billion EU bailout of the Greek government-debt crisis.

The Left also campaigned heavily on federal issues, criticising the social policy of both the federal CDU and former SPD governments, ongoing German involvement in the War in Afghanistan, and the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis.[8] Despite being mostly a federal responsibility, employment and labour policy were also an important issue in the election; the left-wing opposition parties called for the establishment of a minimum wage, which the CDU and FDP opposed. Both Rüttgers and Kraft distanced themselves from controversial federal social policy such as the Hartz IV programme.[9]

Polls ahead of the election indicated that The Left was likely to enter the Landtag, while the two major parties were likely to suffer losses collectively. This continued the trend in recent years of dwindling support for the traditional parties and an increasingly fractured parliamentary landscape with difficult majorities. The FDP was the only party to commit to a single option to the exclusion of all others: a continuation of the incumbent government. The CDU also campaigned to continue the coalition, but left the option of cooperation with the Greens open. The SPD expressed a preference for a coalition with the Greens but otherwise refused to draw hard lines. The Greens favoured the SPD, but likewise did not rule out working with the CDU. Relations with The Left were a sticking point: the CDU and FDP viewed cooperation as impossible, while the Greens and SPD left their options more open. However, the Greens did rule out a confidence and supply arrangement, and the SPD regularly denounced them as incapable of governing. For their part, The Left stated their willingness to join a coalition with the SPD and Greens and support Hannelore Kraft as Minister-President.[10]

Opinion polling

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
CDUSPDGrüneFDPLinkeOthersLead
2010 state electiondata-sort-value="2010-05-09"9 May 201034.634.512.16.75.66.50.1
YouGovdata-sort-value="2010-05-07"30 Apr–6 May 20101,0073535.510.57750.5
Emniddata-sort-value="2010-05-06"28 Apr–5 May 20101,0003733128554
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-05-06"3–5 May 20101,005373710655data-sort-value="0"Tie
GMSdata-sort-value="2010-05-05"3–4 May 20101,0013733127654
Emniddata-sort-value="2010-05-02"21–29 Apr 20101,0333833118645
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2010-04-30"27–29 Apr 20101,0803533.5118.5661.5
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2010-04-29"27–29 Apr 20101,00037.533107.55.54.54.5
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-04-28"19–23 Apr 20101,0043933107656
Emniddata-sort-value="2010-04-24"12–20 Apr 20101,0383834118634
OmniQuestdata-sort-value="2010-04-23"19–22 Apr 20101,00037.536.812.85.14.82.90.7
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-04-21"12–17 Apr 20101,009383498654
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-04-14"6–9 Apr 20101,0033934116555
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2010-04-11"7–10 Apr 20101,0003834127634
GMSdata-sort-value="2010-04-09"5–6 Apr 20101,0023932127647
Emniddata-sort-value="2010-04-04"15–31 Mar 20101,0473832128736
Emniddata-sort-value="2010-03-24"18–22 Mar 20109963832118746
Forschungsgruppe Wahlendata-sort-value="2010-03-19"15–17 Mar 20101,0913733128644
Emniddata-sort-value="2010-03-12"5–11 Mar 20101,0003733128734
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2010-03-04"1–3 Mar 20101,00035331310632
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-03-03"22–26 Feb 20101,0163834116654
GMSdata-sort-value="2010-02-25"18–20 Feb 20101,0033931127658
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-02-03"20–29 Jan 20101,0474132116559
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2010-01-22"19–21 Jan 20101,0003632129654
Forsadata-sort-value="2010-01-19"4–15 Jan 20101,12142311165511
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2009-11-22"17–19 Nov 20091,00036301110856
Forsadata-sort-value="2009-11-18"2–13 Nov 20091,0224131996410
GMSdata-sort-value="2009-08-12"21–28 Jul 20091,00239299125610
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2009-06-14"10–11 Jun 20091,000382712146311
Forsadata-sort-value="2009-05-06"13–30 Apr 20091,28342308115412
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2009-03-01"24–26 Feb 20091,000402810127312
Forsadata-sort-value="2009-02-04"19–30 Jan 20091,07842269136416
Emniddata-sort-value="2009-01-29"29 Jan 2009?38309129?8
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2008-10-12"8–9 Oct 20081,00037301012927
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-10-08"24 Sep–2 Oct 20081,01741308107411
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-08-14"31 Jul–12 Aug 200897044278107417
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-08-14"21–30 Jul 200886742308106412
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-06-12"26 May–6 Jun 20081,0544427898417
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-05-21"5–16 May 20081,2164229997413
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-04-03"17–28 Mar 20081,3864329888414
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2008-03-30"25–27 Mar 20081,00041311096310
Emniddata-sort-value="2008-02-29"25–28 Feb 20081,0004132888?9
Forsadata-sort-value="2008-02-06"28 Jan–5 Feb 20081,014423368749
Emniddata-sort-value="2008-02-02"2 Feb 2008?393589634
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2007-11-11"6–8 Nov 20071,000403489636
Emniddata-sort-value="2007-11-10"2–8 Nov 20071,000403389737
Forsadata-sort-value="2007-11-07"22 Oct–5 Nov 20071,4184531776414
Forsadata-sort-value="2007-09-13"30 Aug–11 Sep 20071,1574429886515
Emniddata-sort-value="2007-08-06"31 Jul–4 Aug 20071,0003831911837
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2007-08-05"31 Jul–2 Aug 20071,000383599633
Emniddata-sort-value="2007-05-02"23–28 Apr 20071,0003932111267
Emniddata-sort-value="2007-03-08"2–5 Mar 20071,0003833121165
Emniddata-sort-value="2007-01-18"4–16 Jan 20071,00039331112326
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2007-01-14"9–11 Jan 20071,000383699442
Forsadata-sort-value="2006-10-27"17 Oct 20061,93241318115410
Emniddata-sort-value="2006-08-14"11–12 Aug 20061,000403499356
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2006-08-13"8–10 Aug 20061,0003935910434
Forsadata-sort-value="2006-07-19"10–18 Jul 20061,05543327105311
GMSdata-sort-value="2006-05-22"12–14 May 20061,001423877334
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2006-05-21"16–18 May 20061,0004334610439
Forsadata-sort-value="2006-05-18"8–16 May 20061,001413389548
Emniddata-sort-value="2006-05-15"8–12 May 20061,002403578465
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2005-12-18"13–15 Dec 20051,000423687436
Infratest dimapdata-sort-value="2005-08-21"16–18 Aug 20051,0004534765311
2005 state electiondata-sort-value="2005-05-22"22 May 200544.837.16.26.23.12.67.7

Results

Due to the electoral reform that took place in this election, no swing is given for the constituency vote except for independents. Swing values for the party list vote are compared to the single vote from the 2005 election.

Aftermath

Analysis

Exit polling by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen indicated that state politics was primary for most voters. 55% said it was most important in their voting decision, while 41% said federal politics was more important, and only 15% said their vote was a protest against the federal government. An overwhelming majority of voters (78%) named education as an important issue, alongside the Greek debt crisis (56%). Only 38% considered CDU finance scandals important. According to Infratest dimap polling, economic development, education, and budget deficits were the most important issues. The SPD was considered more competent in the areas of education and social welfare, while the CDU led in economics and finance. Compared to the 2005 election, while the issue of employment lost salience, perception of the SPD's competence in the area recovered while the CDU's declined.

Jürgen Rüttgers had particularly poor personal ratings. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen found that only 40% of voters preferred him as Minister-President compared to 43% for Hannelore Kraft, an unusual result in Germany where incumbents are typically favoured over challengers, even in close elections. Kraft was rated as more persuasive, sympathetic, and in-touch. Nonetheless, a majority of voters placed more importance on programme and policy when voting, with only one-sixth choosing the lead candidates as the decisive factor. The CDU and SPD did poorly among young voters, who voted strongly for the Greens and non-parliamentary minor parties. Voters over 60 gave much more support to the major parties, particularly the CDU.[11] [12] [13] [14]

Government formation

The incumbent CDU–FDP government lost its majority by a wide margin, taking 80 of the 181 seats. However, a prospective SPD–Green coalition came up just one seat short of a majority with 90 seats of the 91 required. There were four plausible majority coalitions: a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD (134 seats), a CDU–Green–FDP "Jamaica" coalition or SPD–Green–FDP "traffic light" coalition (both 103 seats), or an SPD–Green–Left "red-green-red" coalition (101 seats). The CDU aimed for a Jamaica coalition or grand coalition, while the SPD hoped, in order of preference, for a traffic light, red-green-red, or grand coalition.[15]

The prospect of a grand coalition was complicated by the extremely narrow margin of the election: both major parties took 67 seats in the Landtag, and the question of who would serve as Minister-President was disputed. Rüttgers insisted he would continue in office since the CDU won more votes than the SPD, while Kraft insisted that she should take over given the harsh losses of the CDU.[16]

The SPD first approached the Greens for discussions, with the intention of then seeking a third partner – either the FDP or Left, with a preference for the former. On the morning of the 14th, they sent invitations to both. The Left accepted, but the FDP declined, with leader Andreas Pinkwart stating: "The offer from the SPD and the Greens obviously lacks any seriousness, otherwise the Left Party would not have been invited on the same day. ... The traffic light and Jamaica are no longer coalition options."[17] After the first meeting between the SPD–Green bloc and Left on the 20th, Hannelore Kraft announced that talks had been unsuccessful. She cited problematic sentiments about East Germany and a lack of willingness to take responsibility by The Left as factors. The SPD then invited the CDU to talks for a grand coalition, while the Greens withdrew in the expectation that they would remain in opposition.[18]

After three rounds of meetings, the SPD withdrew from talks on 2 June citing a lack of compromise from the CDU. Kraft said they were unwilling to change policy or personnel, while Rüttgers insisted that only a few contentious issues remained. The previous day, the FDP had reversed their position and announced they were open to talks for a traffic light coalition.[19] The three parties met on 8 June, and again on the 10th for about ten hours. The next day, the FDP announced that talks had failed: they had not been able to reconcile their positions, most especially with the Greens on education policy, and felt the demands of the SPD and Greens were too harsh.[20] On 12 June, after a one-on-one meeting between Rüttgers and Kraft about a grand coalition, the SPD executive voted not to pursue further coalition options and instead withdraw into opposition. Kraft said that they would attempt to garner majorities for legislation on the floor of the Landtag.[21] This was received poorly by the other parties, including the Greens, who called for a minority government.

On 17 June, the SPD reversed its position and Kraft announced that they would indeed attempt to form a minority government with the Greens. Shortly before, FDP leader Pinkwart had told the Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung that the coalition between the CDU and FDP had run its course, and that his party would push for "majority decisions in the interest of the state" in the Landtag. Reportedly, the SPD leadership saw this as the effective end of Rüttgers' government, which had been operating in a caretaker capacity since the election, and strengthened the likelihood of investing an SPD minority government.[22] Though they hoped for cooperation from the FDP, the party executive unanimously decided on 22 June to vote against Kraft in the investiture and oppose a red-green government.[23]

Minority governments are possible in North Rhine-Westphalia due to the procedure for electing the Minister-President: the initial hurdle for election is an absolute majority (a majority of all members) in favour, but after a certain number of failed ballots it is reduced to a simple majority (a majority of all votes cast). Since the SPD and Greens together held more seats than the CDU and FDP, they would be able to win so long as The Left abstained. The SPD and Greens did not consult The Left and rejected suggestions that they were relying on them, but once they FDP made it clear that they would vote against Kraft, they did tacitly require tolerance from The Left or their government would fail. The SPD and Greens quickly concluded a coalition agreement, with both parties ratifying it on 10 July.

The investiture took place on 14 July. Hannelore Kraft, proposed by the SPD and Greens, was the only candidate. In the first ballot, she received 90 votes in favour, 81 against, and ten abstentions, suggesting that one Left deputy voted against. The second ballot required only a simple majority. Kraft was elected with 90 votes in favour, 80 against, and eleven abstentions.[24]

Landtag

The new Landtag met for its inaugural session on 9 June. By convention, the largest party nominates the presiding officer (President of the Landtag), but the tie in seats between the CDU and SPD made it unclear who had the right. The two parties were also concerned that the selection of the president could affect the outcome of government negotiations. They agreed to put off the question by exploiting a constitutional loophole: if no new presiding officer is elected at the inaugural session, the outgoing president from the previous term remains in office. They convened the council of elders of the previous Landtag to remove the election of the presiding officer from the agenda of the inaugural session, claiming there were no applicants. Outgoing president Regina van Dinther (CDU) thus remained in office and chaired the inaugural session. However, she had lost her seat in the election and resigned the presidency effective at the conclusion of the 9 June session. The office thus passed to outgoing first vice-president Edgar Moron (SPD), who had also lost his seat; though he was no longer a member of the Landtag, he served acting president until 17 July, when Eckhard Uhlenberg (CDU) was finally elected. This situation was harshly criticised in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung by Patrick Bahners, who labeled it an act of "self-rejection" contrary to the principles of democracy.[25]

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: State Election Law. 12 May 2021. Recht.nrw.de.
  2. Web site: Debate about the school system: Left behind in NRW. 21 May 2010. de. Süddeutsche Zeitung.
  3. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20100225132105/http://www.wdr.de/themen/politik/parteien/cdu/sponsorentermine/100223.jhtml. Rüttgers admits political damage: Reactions to the sponsorship affair. 23 February 2010. 25 February 2010. de. Westdeutscher Rundfunk.
  4. Web site: New donation scandal harms Rüttgers. 3 May 2010. de. Handelsblatt.
  5. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20100505004825/http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/660/504868/text/. CDU: Data theft in NRW - Rüttgers chases the mole. 3 March 2010. 5 May 2010. de. Süddeutsche Zeitung.
  6. Web site: NRW shakeup election endangers major projects for black-yellow. 6 May 2010. de. Der Spiegel.
  7. Web site: The day the bill came. 21 May 2010. de. Süddeutsche Zeitung.
  8. Web site: Suddenly on government course. 16 April 2010. de. Die Welt.
  9. Web site: A double press conference called TV duel. 27 April 2010. de. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
  10. Web site: Colour games to the end: state election in NRW. 5 May 2010. de. Stern.
  11. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20141108210243/http://www.forschungsgruppe.de/Wahlen/Wahlanalysen/Newsl_NRW_10.pdf. Black and yellow voted out record losses for the CDU. 9 May 2010. 8 November 2014. de. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.
  12. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20100511073045/http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/nrwwahlanalyse100.html. Voters are running away from the major parties. 10 May 2010. 11 May 2010. de. Tagesschau.
  13. Web site: Analysis of the election researchers: Rüttgers alienated the voters. 9 May 2010. de. Der Spiegel.
  14. Web site: Election analysis NRW: No more power on the Rhine. 10 May 2010. de. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
  15. Web site: SPD tries the Kraft act. 10 May 2010. de. N-tv.de.
  16. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20121216235612/http://www.n24.de/news/newsitem_6049974.html. Parties throw off their taboos. 10 May 2010. 16 December 2012. de. n24.de.
  17. Web site: New chance for red-red-green. 15 May 2010. de. Die Tageszeitung.
  18. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20121217001712/http://www1.wdr.de/themen/politik/sp_landtagswahl/landtagswahl226.html. No red-red-green coalition in NRW. 20 May 2010. 17 December 2012. de. Westdeutscher Rundfunk.
  19. Web site: SPD and CDU part with no agreement. 2 June 2010. de. Die Zeit.
  20. Web site: Traffic light coalition in NRW off the table: "The happiest funeral I've ever attended". 11 June 2010. de. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
  21. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20100615154243/http://nachrichten.rp-online.de/politik/nrw-spd-will-in-der-opposition-bleiben-1.78230. NRW SPD wants to remain in opposition. 12 June 2010. 15 June 2010. de. Rheinische Post.
  22. Web site: Red-Green plans minority government in NRW. 17 June 2010. de. Der Spiegel.
  23. Web site: SPD and Greens are optimistic. 22 June 2010. de. Der Spiegel.
  24. Web site: Hannelore Kraft elected Minister-President. 14 July 2010. de. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
  25. Web site: Self-rejection in Düsseldorf. 11 June 2010. de. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.