2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Country:	New Hampshire
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2008 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2008
Next Election:	2012 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2012
Election Date:	November 2, 2010
Image1:	File:John Lynch (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	John Lynch
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	239,390
Percentage1:	52.6%
Nominee2:	John Stephen
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	205,433
Percentage2:	45.1%
Governor
Before Election:	John Lynch
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	John Lynch
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.^[1]

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).^[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

John Lynch, incumbent Governor^[4]
Timothy Robertson, state representative
Frank Sullivan

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
Jack Kimball, businessman^[5]
John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner^[6]
Karen Testerman, conservative activist^[5]

Declined

Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Attorney General^[7]
Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester^[8]
Chuck Morse, former State Senator^[9]
John E. Sununu, former U.S. Senator

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jack Kimball	John Stephen	Karen Testerman
Public Policy Polling	September 11–12, 2010	24%	align=center	45%	8%
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	15%	align=center	26%	5%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	10%	align=center	29%	15%

Results

General election

Candidates

John Babiarz, Libertarian
John Lynch, Democratic
John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[10]		October 14, 2010
Rothenberg^[11]		October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[12]		November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[13]		October 28, 2010
CQ Politics^[14]		October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	John Lynch (D)	John Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports	October 27, 2010	align=center	51%	45%
WMUR/UNH	October 7–12, 2010	align=center	51%	38%
American Research Group	October 3–5, 2010	align=center	51%	41%
Granite State Poll	October 1, 2010	align=center	51%	34%
American Research Group	September 22–26, 2010	align=center	42%	40%
Rasmussen Reports	September 15, 2010	align=center	48%	46%
Public Policy Polling	September 11–12, 2010	align=center	51%	39%
Rasmussen Reports	August 5, 2010	align=center	50%	39%
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	align=center	51%	34%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	align=center	47%	35%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	align=center	47%	36%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	align=center	47%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	align=center	50%	35%
Granite State Poll	January 27-February 3, 2010	align=center	50%	30%

With Kimball

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Jack Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	align=center	52%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	align=center	50%	31%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	align=center	47%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	align=center	50%	34%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	align=center	51%	32%
Research 2000	February 1–3, 2010	align=center	59%	13%
Rasmussen Reports	January 12, 2010	align=center	51%	32%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	align=center	52%	31%

With Morse

width='140'	Poll Source	width='180'	Dates Administered	width='100'	John Lynch (D)	width='100'	Chuck Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	align=center	51%	29%

With Sununu

width='140'	Poll Source	width='180'	Dates Administered	width='100'	John Lynch (D)	width='100'	John Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll	September 25-October 2, 2009	align=center	50%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	align=center	48%	43%

With Testerman

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Karen Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	align=center	52%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	align=center	51%	32%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	align=center	47%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	align=center	50%	33%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	align=center	54%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	January 12, 2010	align=center	53%	30%

Results

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

Rockingham (largest municipality: Derry)

External links

Election Division at New Hampshire Secretary of State
New Hampshire Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Campaign contributions for 2010 New Hampshire Governor from Follow the Money
New Hampshire Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
2010 New Hampshire Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 New Hampshire Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 New Hampshire Governor's Race from CQ Politics
Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign sites (Archived)

Notes and References

Web site: NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports . FOX44NOW.COM . August 21, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120301045713/http://www.fox44now.com/Global/story.asp?S=12327303&nav=menu660_2 . March 1, 2012 . dead . mdy-all .
Web site: Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H. . Public Policy Polling . April 23, 2010.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf
Web site: Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA . Eagletribune.com . April 18, 2010 . August 21, 2010 .
Web site: Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race . The Union Leader . December 9, 2009 . January 1, 2010 . John Distaso . https://web.archive.org/web/20100220053458/http://www.theunionleader.com/article.aspx?headline=Testerman+steps+into+the+ring+in+governor%27s+race&articleId=713cdc3a-58b4-4590-8739-b16947c67672 . February 20, 2010 . dead .
Web site: John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire . Johnstephen.com . August 21, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080915212618/http://www.johnstephen.com/ . September 15, 2008 . mdy-all .
Web site: Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard . Politico.Com . 2010-08-21.
Web site: Frank Guinta for Congress . Teamguinta.com . 2010-07-29 . 2010-08-21.
Web site: Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA . May 27, 2010 . Eagletribune.com . 2010-08-21.
Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .