2010 Florida gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2010 Florida gubernatorial election
Country:Florida
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 Florida gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2014 Florida gubernatorial election
Next Year:2014
Election Date:November 2, 2010
Image1:File:Rick Scott official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1: Rick Scott
Running Mate1: Jennifer Carroll
Party1:Republican Party of Florida
Popular Vote1:2,619,335
Percentage1:48.87%
Nominee2:Alex Sink
Running Mate2:Rod Smith
Party2:Florida Democratic Party
Popular Vote2:2,557,785
Percentage2:47.72%
Governor
Before Election:Charlie Crist
Before Party:Independent
After Election:Rick Scott
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:48.7%1.9[1]

The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.

Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an independent).

The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[3] [5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6] This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.

Primary Elections

Democratic

Candidates

Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010,[7] [8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.

Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was former Socialist Party presidential nominee Brian Moore.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.

Republican

In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[10] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.

Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race.[11] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history.[12] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.

General Election

Candidates

Republican

Democratic

Independence Party of Florida

No party affiliation

The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[14] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[15] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[16] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[3]

One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[17] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[18] October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[19] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[20] November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[22] October 28, 2010

Polling

Republican primary

Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumRick ScottPaula Dockery
Quinnipiac[24] August 21–22, 2010 align=center39%35%–
Public Policy Polling[25] August 21–22, 201040% align=center47%–
Mason-Dixon[26] August 17–19, 2010 align=center45%36%–
Quinnipiac[27] August 11–16, 2010 align=center44%35%–
Sunshine State News[28] August 12–15, 201042% align=center44%–
Mason Dixon[29] August 9–11, 2010 align=center34%30%–
Ipsos/Florida Newspapers[30] August 6–10, 201032% align=center42%–
Mason Dixon[31] August 2–4, 201031% align=center37%–
The Florida Poll[32] July 24–28, 201025% align=center41%–
Quinnipiac[33] July 22–27, 201032% align=center43%–
Public Policy Polling[34] July 16–18, 201029% align=center43%–
Florida Chamber of Commerce[35] June 9–13, 201030% align=center35%–
Quinnipiac[36] June 2–8, 201031% align=center44%–
Mason-Dixon[37] May 3–5, 2010 align=center38%24%7%
Research 2000[38] November 16–18, 2009 align=center45%–9%
Strategic Vision[39] May 29–31, 2009 align=center44%–28%

General election

Poll sourceDates administeredBud Chiles (I)Rick Scott (R)Alex Sink (D)
Mason-DixonMay 3–5, 2010—36%38%
Rasmussen Reports[40] May 16, 2010—41%40%
Rasmussen Reports[41] June 7, 2010—45%40%
Quinnipiac[42] June 7, 201013%35%26%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 201015%31%26%
Ipsos/Reuters[43] align=center July 9–11, 201012%34%31%
Public Policy Polling[44] July 16–18, 201013%30%36%
Quinnipiac[45] July 22–27, 201014%29%27%
The Florida PollJuly 24–28, 201011%30%28%
Rasmussen Reports[46] August 2, 201016%35%31%
Ipsos/Florida NewspapersAugust 6–10, 201014%30%29%
Mason-Dixon[47] August 9–11, 201017%24%40%
Quinnipiac[48] August 11–16, 201012%29%33%
Public Policy Polling[49] August 21–22, 20108%34%41%
Rasmussen Reports[50] August 25, 20104%45%42%
Rasmussen Reports[51] September 1, 2010—45%44%
Sunshine State News[52] September 1–7, 201042%44%
CNN[53] September 2–7, 201042%49%
FOX News[54] September 11, 201041%49%
Reuters/Ipsos[55] September 12, 201045%47%
Mason-Dixon[56] September 20–22, 201040%47%
Rasmussen Reports[57] September 22, 201050%44%
Quinnipiac[58] September 23–28, 201049%43%
CNN[59] September 24–28, 201047%45%
Sunshine State News[60] September 26 – October 3, 201044%42%
TCPalm.com /Zogby[61] September 27–29, 201039%41%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[62] September 27–30, 201046%42%
Rasmussen Reports[63] September 30, 201046%41%
Mason-Dixon[64] October 4–6, 201040%44%
Miami-Dade College[65] October 5, 201052%46%
Quinnipiac[66] October 6–8, 201045%44%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 7, 201050%47%
PPP[67] October 9–10, 201041%46%
Susquehanna[68] October 12–13, 201045%48%
Suffolk[69] October 14–17, 201038%45%
CNN Opinion Research[70] October 15–19, 201049%46%
Ipsos/St. Pete Times[71] October 15–19, 201044%41%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 18, 201050%44%
Naples Daily News /Zogby[72] October 18–21, 201039%43%
Quinnipiac[73] October 18–24, 201041%45%
Susquehanna[74] October 20, 201045%45%
Susquehanna/Sunshine State News[75] October 24–25, 201047%45%
Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic[76] October 23–27, 201044%39%
Quinnipiac[77] October 25–31, 201043%44%
Mason-Dixon[78] October 26–27, 201043%46%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27, 201048%45%
Susquehanna/Sunshine State[79] October 29–31, 201046%49%
Public Policy Polling[80] October 30–31, 201047%48%

Hypothetical Polls

Poll sourceDates administeredBill McCollumAlex SinkBud Chiles
QuinnipiacAugust 11–16, 201029% align=center31%12%
Mason-DixonAugust 9–11, 201035% align=center37%13%
Ipsos/Florida NewspapersAugust 6–10, 201026% align=center30%12%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 201027% align=center31%20%
The Florida PollJuly 24–28, 201026% align=center27%12%
QuinnipiacJuly 22–27, 2010 align=center27%26%14%
Public Policy PollingJuly 16–18, 201023% align=center37%14%
Ipsos/ReutersJuly 9–11, 201030% align=center31%12%
Florida Chamber of CommerceJune 9–13, 2010 align=center30%26%15%
QuinnipiacJune 7, 2010 align=center33%25%19%
Rasmussen ReportsJune 7, 2010 align=center40%38%—
Rasmussen ReportsMay 16, 2010 align=center43%35%—
Mason-DixonMay 7, 2010 align=center45%36%—
Rasmussen ReportsMarch 18, 2010 align=center47%36%—
Public Policy Polling[81] March 5–8, 2010 align=center44%31%—
Rasmussen ReportsFebruary 18, 2010 align=center48%35%—
Fabrizo/McLaughlin & Associates[82] January 31, 2010 align=center41%32%—
Rasmussen ReportsJanuary 27, 2010 align=center46%35%—
Quinnipiac[83] January 27, 2010align=center 41%31%<1%
Rasmussen Reports[84] December 14, 2009align=center 44%39%—
Research 2000November 16–18, 2009align=center 35%33%—
St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9[85] October 25–28, 200937%align=center 38%—
Rasmussen Reports[86] October 20, 2009align=center 46%35%—
Quinnipiac[87] August 19, 2009align=center 38%34%1%
Public Opinion Strategies[88] August 4–5, 2009align=center 48%37%—
Rasmussen Reports[89] June 22, 2009align=center 42%34%—
Quinnipiac[90] June 2–7, 200934%align=center 38%1%
Mason Dixon[91] May 14–18, 2009align=center 40%34%—
Mason Dixon[92] March 30 – April 1, 2009align=center 36%35%—

Results

The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.

Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: November 2, 2010 General Election. Florida Department of State. 2022-05-15.
  2. [Mel Martinez|Martinez]
  3. News: Money, message, mad electorate make Scott Fla. gov. The Washington Post. November 3, 2010. October 21, 2014.
  4. News: TEA Party Backs Rick Scott for Governor in November. Sunshine State News. Kevin. Derby. September 2, 2010. October 17, 2014.
  5. News: Paula Dockery: Tea party stands by Rick Scott. Florida Today. Paula. Dockery. June 5, 2014. October 17, 2014.
  6. News: Exit Polls – Florida 2010 Governor. CNN. October 17, 2014.
  7. News: Florida Democrats revel in gained ground . Tampa Bay Times . August 25, 2008 . 2010-08-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121013103140/http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article784644.ece . October 13, 2012 . dead . mdy-all .
  8. News: Cotterell. Bill. Alex Sink won't run for U.S. Senate in 2010. Tallahassee Democrat. January 16, 2009.
  9. News: Low-profile Alex Sink faces even more obscure opponent in Democratic race for Florida governor. Palm Beach Post. Dara. Kam. July 24, 2010. October 17, 2014.
  10. News: Florida governor announces run for Senate. CNN. May 12, 2009. October 17, 2014.
  11. News: Ruling lets Rick Scott spend all he wants in governor's race vs. Bill McCollum. The Orlando Sentinel. Aaron. Deslatte. July 30, 2010. October 17, 2014.
  12. News: Rick Scott beats Bill McCollum to end nasty GOP governor's primary fight. The Orlando Sentinel. Aaron. Deslatte. August 25, 2010. October 17, 2014.
  13. Web site: Florida Election Candidate Tracking System entry for Imperato . June 23, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100729223629/http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/CanDetail.asp?account=52671 . July 29, 2010 . dead .
  14. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2010/10/26/governors-race-rick-scott-alex-sink-save-harshest-words-for-last-debate/ "Governor's Race: Rick, Scott, Alex Sink save harshest word for last debate"
  15. News: Baribeau. Simone. Florida Republican Scott Elected Governor After Record Spending. Bloomberg. December 9, 2011.
  16. News: Rick Scott Wins Tight Florida Governor Race. CBS News. Lucy. Madison. April 14, 2011. October 17, 2014.
  17. News: Aide fired over Florida debate foul. CNN. October 26, 2010. October 17, 2014.
  18. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
  19. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
  20. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
  21. Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
  22. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .
  23. https://web.archive.org/web/20110715201744/http://www.ronsachs.com/docs/flcabinetpoll06_30_09.pdf Mason Dixon
  24. https://web.archive.org/web/20100901032624/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1491&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0 Quinnipiac
  25. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_8221025.pdf Public Policy Polling
  26. https://archive.today/20130204123811/http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/aug/21/211824/poll-mccollum-meek-hold-leads-last-minute-spending/news-breaking/ Mason-Dixon
  27. https://web.archive.org/web/20100819164846/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1487 Quinnipiac
  28. https://web.archive.org/web/20100819133903/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/gop-governor-race-back-tossup Sunshine State News
  29. https://archive.today/20130130210120/http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-mason-dixon-governors-race-20100812,0,240451.story Mason Dixon
  30. http://www.pollster.com/blogs/Ipsos%20Florida%20Pollin%233AB6F4.pdf Ipsos/Florida Newspapers
  31. https://web.archive.org/web/20100817043256/http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/aug/05/051736/polls-show-scott-has-single-digit-lead-over-mccoll/ Mason Dixon
  32. http://www.theledger.com/article/20100731/NEWS/7315026/1410?Title=Rick-Scott-Pulls-Well-Out-Front The Florida Poll
  33. https://web.archive.org/web/20100731064442/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1481 Quinnipiac
  34. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_722.pdf Public Policy Polling
  35. https://web.archive.org/web/20100622063704/http://www.tampabay.com/news/crists-edge-over-rubio-appears-to-be-growing/1103719 Florida Chamber of Commerce
  36. https://web.archive.org/web/20100612194805/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1462 Quinnipiac
  37. http://www.abc-7.com/Global/story.asp?S=12447381 Mason-Dixon
  38. http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/11/18/FL/417/ Research 2000
  39. https://web.archive.org/web/20100212001621/http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2009/06/new-poll-crist-is-cruising-mccollum-not-so-much.html Strategic Vision
  40. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/election_2010_florida_governor Rasmussen Reports
  41. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_governor_june_7_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
  42. https://web.archive.org/web/20100612193930/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1461 Quinnipiac
  43. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66C4I320100713 Ipsos/Reuters
  44. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_721.pdf Public Policy Polling
  45. https://web.archive.org/web/20100802024503/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1483 Quinnipiac
  46. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_governor_august_2_2010/ Rasmussen Reports
  47. http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/08/12/1773076/negative-ads-help-push-bill-mccollum.html Mason-Dixon
  48. https://web.archive.org/web/20100820063610/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1488 Quinnipiac
  49. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_8251118.pdf Public Policy Polling
  50. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_governor_august_25_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  51. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_florida_governor_september_1_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  52. https://web.archive.org/web/20100913054130/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/alex-sink-rick-scott-statistical-tie Sunshine State News
  53. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/08/cnntime-poll-heated-battle-for-florida-senate/ CNN
  54. http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091410_FLpoll1.pdf FOX News
  55. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68E55P20100915 Reuters/Ipsos
  56. https://archive.today/20100927042605/http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/sep/23/231234/sink-leads-scott-47-40-in-new-mason-dixon-poll/news-breaking/ Mason-Dixon
  57. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/florida/toplines_florida_governor_september_22_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  58. https://web.archive.org/web/20111105172359/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1510&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0 Quinnipiac
  59. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/29/cnntime-poll-rubio-opens-senate-lead-while-governors-race-stays-a-dead-heat/ CNN
  60. http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-rick-scott-takes-lead-favored-win Sunshine State News
  61. http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2010/oct/06/Sink-Scott-neck-and-neck-to-be-next-governor/ TCPalm.com / Zogby
  62. https://web.archive.org/web/20101007170536/http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2010/10/chamber-poll-repubs-beating-dems-in-all-statewide-races.html#tp Florida Chamber of Commerce
  63. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/election_2010_florida_governor Rasmussen Reports
  64. https://web.archive.org/web/20101015084754/http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-mason-dixon-governor-20101008,0,1673033.story Mason-Dixon
  65. http://www.ufmdcc.org/documents/UFMDC-Newser-100510.pdf Miami-Dade College
  66. https://web.archive.org/web/20101016052627/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1515 Quinnipiac
  67. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_FL_1013925.pdf PPP
  68. https://web.archive.org/web/20110724222604/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/sites/default/files/Crosstabs-Florida_Gov_Oct10_SSN.pdf Susquehanna
  69. http://www.suffolk.edu/44188.html Suffolk
  70. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/10/20/topstate7.pdf CNN Opinion Research
  71. https://web.archive.org/web/20101026014311/http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/article1129698.ece Ipsos/ St. Pete Times
  72. https://web.archive.org/web/20101030094142/http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2010/oct/25/daily-news-zogby-poll-senate-rubio-crist-meek-lead/ Naples Daily News / Zogby
  73. https://web.archive.org/web/20101029084549/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1527 Quinnipiac
  74. https://web.archive.org/web/20101027121014/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/poll-rick-scott-alex-sink-locked-dead-heat-governor-race Susquehanna
  75. https://web.archive.org/web/20110724223022/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/sites/default/files/Crosstabs-Florida_Gov2_Oct10_SSN.pdf Susquehanna/ Sunshine State News
  76. http://www.theledger.com/article/20101030/NEWS/10305068/1410?p=1&tc=pg Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic
  77. https://web.archive.org/web/20101103031154/http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1531 Quinnipiac
  78. http://www.wtsp.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=153344&catid=250 Mason-Dixon
  79. https://web.archive.org/web/20101104051656/http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/will-early-votes-put-rick-scott-over-top Susquehanna/ Sunshine State
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  82. http://miamiherald.typepad.com/files/2-10-fl-sw---crists-quandary.pdf Fabrizo/McLaughlin
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  85. https://web.archive.org/web/20091104021126/http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/gov-charlie-crists-popularity-slides/1048529 St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9
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  92. http://www.sayfiereview.com/sayfiereviewcompowerplay-poll-1.php Mason Dixon

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