2010 Colorado gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2010 Colorado gubernatorial election
Country:Colorado
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 Colorado gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2006
Election Date:November 2, 2010
Next Election:2014 Colorado gubernatorial election
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:HickenlooperCropped.JPG
Nominee1:John Hickenlooper
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:Joe Garcia
Popular Vote1:915,436
Percentage1:51.05%
Nominee2:Tom Tancredo
Running Mate2:Pat Miller
Party2:Constitution Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:652,376
Percentage2:36.38%
Image3:File:3x4.svg
Nominee3:Dan Maes
Running Mate3:Tambor Williams
Popular Vote3:199,792
Percentage3:11.14%
Party3:Republican Party (United States)
Governor
Before Election:Bill Ritter
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:John Hickenlooper
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2010 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Colorado, who would serve a four-year term that began in January 2011. One-term incumbent Democrat Bill Ritter announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010.[1] Dan Maes, backed by the Tea Party movement, won the Republican nomination in the primary with 50.6% of the vote and a 1.3% margin over rival Scott McInnis. In claiming victory, Maes called on former representative Tom Tancredo, running as the Constitution Party's nominee to "stop your campaign tonight." Denver mayor John Hickenlooper was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Hickenlooper won the race with over 50% of the vote.[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Pre-primary polling and developments

While a head-to-head polling matchup of McInnis against Maes by Survey USA was not reported for July 2010, the McInnis plagiarism story and the entry of Tom Tancredo into the race led to a changed landscape in advance of the August 10 Republican primary. "When asked who would be the 'strongest Republican gubernatorial candidate,' ... Tancredo easily led the pack of six choices with 29 percent. McInnis followed with 19 percent, and ... Maes, had 13 percent. Another 17 percent ... were not sure", in the Survey USA poll commissioned by the Denver Post and 9News. While Tancredo's run was on the Constitution Party ticket, he spoke as a Republican in responding to the poll results. "Tancredo, originally a McInnis supporter, has said that both Maes and McInnis should 'both eventually drop out' of the race even if it's after one wins the primary. 'Neither can win the general election,' he said. Tancredo said he was 'surprised and flattered' by the poll results. 'I want us as a party to get this governor's seat,' he said. 'If I can do it, believe me, I will.'"[13] Tancredo was delivered a "message, signed by tea party, 9-12 Project and constitutionalist groups, [which] read in part: 'Withdraw your ultimatum, stay in the Republican Party, let the process play out for the governor's race within the rules already set forth, and continue to help us improve this party, its candidates, and the process — in other words to trust and respect the newly awakened, energized and informed voters of Colorado.'"[14] As of late July, both McInnis and Maes had rejected Tancredo's ultimatum that they withdraw before or after the primary. And "political observers — and even state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams — were already predicting [Tancredo]'s entry into the race sounded the death knell for the party's gubernatorial bid and may cause problems for state legislative races. 'It's difficult if not impossible to beat ... Hickenlooper with Tancredo in the race,' said Wadhams, noting that Tancredo will siphon just enough votes away from the GOP nominee to give Hickenlooper a win."[15] Post-primary polling (see below), however, showed growing support for Tancredo with Maes in danger of receiving a vote share in the single digits.

McInnis vs. Maes

Poll sourceDates administeredDan
Maes
Scott
McInnis
Public Policy PollingAugust 7–8, 201040% align=center41%
Survey USA August 1, 2010 align=center43%39%
Survey USAJune 15–17, 201029% align=center57%

Results

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Results

American Constitution Party

Confirmed

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[19] October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[20] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[21] November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[23] October 28, 2010

Debates

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDates administeredJohn
Dan
Maes (R)
Tom
Public Policy PollingOctober 30–31, 2010 align=center47%8%43%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 29, 2010 align=center49%5%42%
Public Policy PollingOctober 21–23, 2010 align=center47%5%44%
Magellan StrategiesOctober 22, 2010 align=center44%9%43%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 15, 2010 align=center42%12%38%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 3, 2010 align=center43%16%35%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 30 – October 2, 2010 align=center47%13%33%
Survey USASeptember 28–30, 2010 align=center46%15%34%
Fox NewsSeptember 25, 2010 align=center44%15%34%
CNN/TimeSeptember 17–21, 2010 align=center47%21%29%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 14, 2010 align=center46%21%25%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 29, 2010 align=center36%24%14%
Ipsos/ReutersAugust 20–22, 2010 align=center41%33%16%
45%45%––
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 11, 2010 align=center43%31%18%
Public Policy PollingAugust 7–8, 2010 align=center48%23%22%
align=center50%38%––
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 2, 2010 align=center42%27%24%
Survey USAJuly 27–29, 2010 align=center46%24%24%
align=center50%41%––
Rasmussen ReportsJuly 15, 2010 align=center46%43%––
Survey USAJune 15–17, 201044% align=center45%––
Rasmussen ReportsJune 14, 201041%41%––

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Constitution

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Constitution

Aftermath

American Constitution Party gets major party status

A result of Tancredo's ACP candidacy and Maes' political implosion was the party's legal elevation from minor to major party status.

Under state law, Tancredo's showing in the gubernatorial election elevated the American Constitution Party from minor to major party status. Any party that earns 10% or more of the votes cast for governor is a "major party." Major party status gives the party a place at or near the top of the ballot in the 2014 gubernatorial election. However, because of the additional organizational, financial, and compliance requirements triggered by major party status, ACP leaders have been ambivalent about the change.[24] [25]

As the campaign wore on, the question was not whether Hickenlooper would win, but whether Maes would get at least 10% of the vote. Had he dropped below 10%, the Republican Party would have been legally defined as a minor party under Colorado law. Maes' campaign received no financial support from the Colorado GOP, RNC, nor the Republican Governor's Association. Ultimately, he finished with 11 percent of the vote, just 20,477 votes over the threshold, allowing the Colorado GOP to retain major party status.[26]

The Constitution Party did not field a candidate in the 2014 election, and thus lost its major party status.

See also

External links

Debate
Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: Fender . Jessica . 6 January 2010 . Ritter ends re-election bid . The Denver Post . 28 February 2019.
  2. News: Hickenlooper wins easily . Denver Post . John . Moore . November 3, 2010.
  3. News: Bartels . Lynn . Hickenlooper enters governor's race . The Denver Post . 2010-01-12 . 2010-07-26.
  4. Web site: Kraushaar . Josh . Hickenlooper in – The Scorecard . Politico.Com . 2010-01-12 . 2010-07-26.
  5. Web site: Salazar, Ritter get set for reelection bids. The Hill. Reid. Wilson. 2008-12-08. 2009-01-03.
  6. Web site: Salazar Won't Run. Politico 44 (blog). Jonathan. Weisman. 2010-01-06. 2010-01-06.
  7. News: Bartels . Lynn . Romanoff enters Dem race for U.S. Senate . The Denver Post . 2009-09-16 . 2010-07-26.
  8. Web site: The 2010 Results Maps . Politico.Com . 2010-08-21.
  9. News: McInnis begins 2010 challenge to Gov. Ritter. May 21, 2009. March 8, 2010. The Denver Post. Jessica. Fender.
  10. News: Crummy . Karen E. . Suthers won't enter Senate, Gov. races . The Denver Post . 2009-01-26 . 2010-07-26.
  11. Web site: First Read – CO-GOV: Penry steps aside fearing 527 . https://web.archive.org/web/20091112113941/http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/11/09/2123249.aspx . dead . 2009-11-12 . . 2010-07-26.
  12. Web site: Tancredo, Owens Throw Support Behind McInnis. 2009-11-23. 2010-01-06. CBS4 Denver. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20091125161555/http://cbs4denver.com/local/mcinnis.tancredo.Colorado.2.1329599.html. 2009-11-25.
  13. http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_15536482 "Poll shows slipping support for GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis"
  14. http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/40219.html "Tancredo pulls third-party trigger"
  15. http://www.denverpost.com/election2010/ci_15609435 "Tancredo entering governor's race as third-party candidate, splintering GOP"
  16. Web site: Candidates – Libertarian Party of Colorado . Lpcolorado.org . 2010-07-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100725174218/http://www.lpcolorado.org/candidates . 2010-07-25 . dead .
  17. Web site: TRACER – Candidate Detail . Tracer.sos.colorado.gov . 2010-07-26.
  18. News: Tancredo considering third-party or unaffiliated governor's run. 2010-07-22. 2010-07-22. The Denver Post. Karen E.. Crummy.
  19. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
  20. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
  21. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
  22. Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . . October 28, 2010.
  23. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .
  24. http://denver.cbslocal.com/2011/05/08/acp-not-relishing-role-as-colorado-major-party/ Steven K. Paulson, "ACP Not Relishing Role As Colorado Major Party", Associated Press; May 8, 2011.
  25. http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/2012/03/american_constitution_party_headaches_colorado.php Patricia Calhoun, "American Constitution Party faces major headaches as a major Colorado party", Westword Magazine; 3/6/2012.
  26. John Moore, "Hickenlooper wins easily," Denver Post, 3 November 2010, accessed 3 November 2010.