2010 Catalan regional election explained

Election Name:	2010 Catalan regional election
Country:	Catalonia
Type:	parliamentary
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2006 Catalan regional election
Previous Year:	2006
Next Election:	2012 Catalan regional election
Next Year:	2012
Seats For Election:	All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
Majority Seats:	68
Opinion Polls:	Opinion polls
Registered:	5,363,688 0.8%
Turnout:	3,152,630 (58.8%) 2.8 pp
Election Date:	28 November 2010
Leader1:	Artur Mas
Party1:	Convergence and Union
Leader Since1:	7 January 2002
Leaders Seat1:	Barcelona
Last Election1:	48 seats, 31.5%
Seats1:	62
Seat Change1:	14
Popular Vote1:	1,202,830
Percentage1:	38.4%
Swing1:	6.9 pp
Leader2:	José Montilla
Party2:	PSC–PSOE
Leader Since2:	15 July 2006
Leaders Seat2:	Barcelona
Last Election2:	37 seats, 26.8%
Seats2:	28
Seat Change2:	9
Popular Vote2:	575,233
Percentage2:	18.4%
Swing2:	8.4 pp
Leader3:	Alicia Sánchez-Camacho
Party3:	People's Party of Catalonia
Leader Since3:	6 July 2008
Leaders Seat3:	Barcelona
Last Election3:	14 seats, 10.7%
Seats3:	18
Seat Change3:	4
Popular Vote3:	387,066
Percentage3:	12.4%
Swing3:	1.7 pp
Leader4:	Joan Herrera
Party4:	ICV–EUiA
Leader Since4:	23 November 2008
Leaders Seat4:	Barcelona
Last Election4:	12 seats, 9.5%
Seats4:	10
Seat Change4:	2
Popular Vote4:	230,824
Percentage4:	7.4%
Swing4:	2.1 pp
Leader5:	Joan Puigcercós
Party5:	Republican Left of Catalonia
Leader Since5:	7 June 2008
Leaders Seat5:	Barcelona
Last Election5:	21 seats, 14.0%
Seats5:	10
Seat Change5:	11
Popular Vote5:	219,173
Percentage5:	7.0%
Swing5:	7.0 pp
Leader6:	Joan Laporta
Party6:	Catalan Solidarity for Independence
Leader Since6:	4 September 2010
Leaders Seat6:	Barcelona
Last Election6:	Did not contest
Seats6:	4
Seat Change6:	4
Popular Vote6:	102,921
Percentage6:	3.3%
Swing6:	New party
Leader7:	Albert Rivera
Party7:	C's
Color7:	EB6109
Leader Since7:	9 July 2006
Leaders Seat7:	Barcelona
Last Election7:	3 seats, 3.0%
Seats7:	3
Seat Change7:	0
Popular Vote7:	106,154
Percentage7:	3.4%
Swing7:	0.4 pp
Map Size:	350px
President
Before Election:	José Montilla
Before Party:	Socialists' Party of Catalonia
After Election:	Artur Mas
After Party:	Convergence and Union

The 2010 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 28 November 2010, to elect the 9th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election. This was the first election held in Catalonia after the Constitutional Court of Spain struck down parts of the regional 2006 Statute of Autonomy that granted new powers of self-rule to the region. The ruling came after four years of deliberation concerning a constitutional appeal filed by the conservative People's Party (PP) under Mariano Rajoy and was met with anger and street protests throughout the region.^{[1] [2]}

The election resulted in a resounding victory for the Convergence and Union (CiU) federation under Artur Mas, whose 62 seats—six short of an absolute majority—virtually ensured that no alternative government was mathematically possible, as the left-wing alliance which had formed the government of Catalonia for the previous seven years fell to a bare 48 seats. The (English: tripartite) coalition formed by the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) was already at the brink of split going into the election, with political disagreements between the former allies having led Catalan president José Montilla to announce that he would not seek a third alliance with ERC and ICV even if election numbers favored such a possibility.^[3] The election saw a collapse in support for all three parties and Montilla's retirement from the PSC leadership shortly afterwards.^[4]

The PP had one of its best showings in a Catalan regional election, with 12.4% of the vote and 18 seats. Albert Rivera's Citizens (C's) party saw a slight increase in its vote share, whereas the pro-Catalan independence Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI) led by former FC Barcelona president Joan Laporta secured 4 seats in the Parliament.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[5] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:^{[5] [6]}

Seats	Constituencies
85	Barcelona
18	Tarragona
17	Girona
15	Lleida

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.^[7]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 1 November 2006, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 November 2010. The election was required to be called no later than 17 October 2010, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Thursday, 16 December 2010.^[5]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[5]

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 5 October 2010, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia.^[8] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.^{[9] [10] [11]}

Parliamentary composition in October 2010^[12]

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Convergence and Union's Parliamentary Group		CDC	34	48
			UDC	14
	Socialists–Citizens for Change Parliamentary Group		PSC	32	37
			CpC	5
	Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		ERC	21	21
	People's Party of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		PP	14	14
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left's Parliamentary Group		ICV	10	12
			EUiA	2
	Mixed Group		Cs	2	2
	Non-Inscrits		INDEP	1	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[13]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result
						Votes (%)	Seats
	CiU			Artur Mas	Catalan nationalism Centrism	31.52%			^[14]
	PSC–PSOE			José Montilla	Social democracy	26.82%			^[15] ^[16] ^[17]
	ERC			Joan Puigcercós	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	14.03%			^[18] ^[19]
	PP			Alicia Sánchez-Camacho	Conservatism Christian democracy	10.65%			^[20] ^[21]
	ICV–EUiA			Joan Herrera	Regionalism Eco-socialism Green politics	9.52%			^[22] ^[23] ^[24]
	C's			Albert Rivera	Social liberalism	3.03%
	SI			Joan Laporta	Catalan independence			^[25]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							PxC		RI.cat	SI	Lead
2010 regional election	28 Nov 2010		58.8		38.4	18.4	7.0	12.4	7.4	3.4	2.4	0.2	1.3	3.3	20.0
Ipsos–Eco/CCMA^[26] ^[27]	28 Nov 2010	?	?		40.2	17.3	8.1	11.1	7.3	3.2	–	–	1.5	3.7	22.9
GESOP/El Periòdic^[28]	25–27 Nov 2010	900	56–58		40.0	18.5	7.4	10.5	10.2	4.0	–	–	–	2.8	21.5
GESOP/El Periòdic^[29]	24–26 Nov 2010	900	54–56		39.2	19.3	7.2	10.4	9.9	3.7	–	–	–	2.6	19.9
GAD/COPE^[30] ^[31]	22–26 Nov 2010	2,201	59.2		39.4	20.5	7.7	11.6	9.4	4.0	–	–	–	2.9	18.9
GESOP/El Periòdic^[32]	23–25 Nov 2010	900	54–56		39.9	19.5	7.0	9.9	9.5	3.7	–	–	–	2.6	20.4
GESOP/El Periòdic^[33]	22–24 Nov 2010	800	54–56		39.5	20.1	7.3	9.8	9.0	4.3	–	–	–	2.5	19.4
GESOP/El Periòdic^[34]	20–23 Nov 2010	700	53–55		39.5	20.1	7.3	10.1	8.4	4.4	–	–	–	2.9	19.4
GESOP/El Periòdic^[35]	20–22 Nov 2010	600	52–54		39.2	19.9	7.5	10.1	8.2	4.7	–	–	–	3.2	19.3
GESOP/El Periódico^[36] ^[37]	20–21 Nov 2010	400	51–53		39.1	20.0	7.5	10.3	8.0	4.3	–	–	–	3.2	19.1
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público^[38]	15–20 Nov 2010	2,500	60		39.3	22.2	9.1	8.5	8.0	4.1	1.0	0.4	1.1	2.9	17.1
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3^[39]	19 Nov 2010	?	50.2		38.5	21.6	?	?	?	?	–	–	–	?	16.9
NC Report/La Razón^[40]	15–18 Nov 2010	1,000	53.9		39.4	21.8	9.3	11.4	8.5	3.2	–	–	–	1.8	17.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^[41]	15–18 Nov 2010	1,650	?		40.4	21.8	8.1	12.7	8.1	3.0	–	–	–	–	18.6
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[42]	15–18 Nov 2010	1,200	?		39.3	20.1	7.9	10.1	7.5	4.0	–	–	–	2.4	19.2
DYM/ABC^[43]	11–18 Nov 2010	1,141	52.3		40.0	21.7	6.6	11.3	10.0	4.6	–	–	–	1.8	18.3
Metroscopia/El País^[44] ^[45]	16–17 Nov 2010	1,508	50–52		39.5	20.4	7.0	9.5	6.9	5.0	–	–	–	2.6	19.1
La Vanguardia^[46]	12 Nov 2010	?	?		40.6	19.2	9.2	11.9	8.4	3.5	–	–	–	2.9	21.4
Feedback/RAC 1^[47] ^[48] ^[49]	8–12 Nov 2010	1,000	52.3		39.3	20.1	5.6	10.5	6.7	3.2	0.7	–	1.7	2.8	19.2
GESOP/El Periódico^[50] ^[51] ^[52]	7–10 Nov 2010	800	?		39.0	21.3	7.7	10.8	9.0	3.2	–	–	–	2.7	19.7
Opina/Cadena SER^[53] ^[54]	8–9 Nov 2010	1,200	?		42.4	18.4	7.3	11.6	7.5	4.1	–	–	–	3.5	24.0
CIS^[55] ^[56]	15 Oct–4 Nov 2010	2,966	?		38.0	22.7	10.2	9.7	8.2	3.5	0.6	0.1	1.2	1.0	15.3
NC Report/La Razón^[57] ^[58]	26–28 Oct 2010	1,000	53.5		41.0	21.6	8.8	11.9	10.1	2.9	–	–	–	–	19.4
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3^[59] ^[60]	24 Oct 2010	?	54.8		40.2	19.5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	20.7
Feedback/RAC 1^[61] ^[62] ^[63]	18–22 Oct 2010	1,000	54.0		41.8	19.5	6.5	8.6	8.0	3.8	1.0	–	1.5	2.3	22.3
GESOP/CEO^[64] ^[65]	11–22 Oct 2010	2,000	58.3		37.0	19.4	8.6	11.3	7.2	3.5	–	–	–	2.0	17.6
GESOP/El Periódico^[66] ^[67]	26–28 Sep 2010	800	51–52		40.5	20.8	8.4	10.4	7.2	2.9	–	–	–	2.7	19.7
Feedback/RAC 1^[68] ^[69] ^[70]	20–24 Sep 2010	1,000	55.3		41.2	20.4	8.0	10.7	7.3	3.7	–	–	1.0	2.4	20.8
TNS Demoscopia/SI^[71] ^[72] ^[73]	20–23 Sep 2010	1,201	54.2		34.6	20.2	6.9	10.1	9.3	4.4	0.8	–	1.6	5.6	14.4
Metroscopia/El País^[74] ^[75]	20–22 Sep 2010	1,200	50		40.7	19.2	9.2	12.5	7.6	3.6	–	–	2.6	2.6	21.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[76]	1–2 Sep 2010	800	?		38.9	21.1	10.1	11.2	9.2	2.6	–	–	2.6	–	17.8
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[77]	12–14 Jul 2010	1,000	?		42.1	23.1	8.4	10.3	7.4	2.4	–	–	1.9	–	19.0
GESOP/CEO^[78] ^[79]	28 Jun–8 Jul 2010	2,000	53.9		40.5	21.1	8.7	9.8	7.4	2.6	–	–	0.9	–	19.4
NC Report/La Razón^[80]	2–3 Jul 2010	1,000	53.8		40.4	22.2	9.2	11.6	10.5	2.8	–	–	–	–	18.2
Metroscopia/El País^[81] ^[82]	1 Jul 2010	302	?		39.0	24.7	7.5	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	14.3
GESOP/El Periódico^[83] ^[84]	10–11 Jun 2010	800	?		41.0	21.0	8.5	10.0	8.5	1.2	0.5	–	1.3	–	20.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^[85]	24–26 May 2010	1,000	?		36.1	24.8	9.5	14.8	5.7	–	–	–	–	–	11.3
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[86]	10–13 May 2010	1,000	?		41.1	23.5	8.7	10.5	8.5	1.4	–	–	0.9	–	17.6
GESOP/CEO^[87] ^[88]	16–30 Apr 2010	2,000	56.8		39.6	23.2	8.8	8.5	7.7	1.8	–	–	1.4	–	16.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público^[89]	7–16 Apr 2010	2,500	?		38.8	28.2	9.0	7.2	7.7	1.9	0.7	0.8	1.2	–	10.6
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3^[90] ^[91] ^[92]	22–23 Mar 2010	1,100	49.5		40.5	23.9	10.3	9.3	9.2	1.8	–	–	2.1	–	16.6
GESOP/El Periódico^[93] ^[94]	15–18 Mar 2010	?	?		38.7	23.0	8.4	9.8	8.3	1.5	–	–	1.0	–	15.7
GAD/COPE^[95] ^[96]	9–15 Mar 2010	1,000	60		39.0	23.5	9.4	12.7	8.8	2.1	–	–	–	–	15.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[97]	8–10 Mar 2010	1,000	?		43.9	23.9	7.7	10.4	9.2	0.1	–	–	1.8	–	20.0
GESOP/CEO^[98] ^[99]	13–28 Jan 2010	2,000	56.9		35.6	24.7	9.8	9.7	8.5	2.1	–	–	1.2	–	10.9
Opina/CEO^[100] ^[101]	2–13 Nov 2009	2,000	56.8		33.4	23.1	10.1	10.3	6.8	1.7	–	–	1.4	–	10.3
GESOP/El Periódico^[102] ^[103]	26–28 Oct 2009	800	?		35.1	25.1	10.8	9.4	10.1	1.2	–	–	1.3	–	10.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[104]	22–27 Oct 2009	1,000	?		36.2	25.1	9.5	11.2	8.5	0.7	–	–	2.8	–	11.1
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público^[105]	1–4 Sep 2009	?	?		35.7	30.8	6.9	10.8	8.4	1.6	–	1.4	–	–	4.9
GESOP/El Periódico^[106]	14–15 Jul 2009	600	?		34.4	26.0	11.0	8.5	10.0	1.5	–	–	–	–	8.4
Opina/CEO^[107] ^[108]	29 Jun–10 Jul 2009	2,000	?		35.4	25.5	10.4	11.3	8.7	2.6	–	–	–	–	9.9
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009		36.9	22.4		36.0	9.2	18.0	6.1	0.4	–	0.8	–	–	13.6
Opina/CEO^[109] ^[110]	20–30 Apr 2009	2,000	?		38.5	23.0	12.2	10.5	7.9	2.6	–	–	–	–	15.5
GESOP/El Periódico^[111]	9–11 Mar 2009	800	?		35.6	26.5	10.6	8.8	9.0	2.5	–	–	–	–	9.1
Opina/CEO^[112] ^[113]	19–28 Jan 2009	2,000	?		34.5	24.3	12.3	8.6	9.2	2.8	–	–	–	–	10.2
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[114]	24–27 Nov 2008	600	?		34.8	26.0	13.7	9.7	9.2	2.7	–	–	–	–	8.8
GESOP/El Periódico^[115]	10–13 Nov 2008	800	?		34.2	26.9	13.9	8.0	9.0	2.4	–	–	–	–	7.3
Opina/CEO^[116] ^[117]	20–28 Oct 2008	2,000	?		34.0	25.6	10.8	12.2	8.9	1.9	–	–	–	–	8.4
GESOP/El Periódico^[118]	1–2 Jul 2008	?	?		34.8	27.3	12.7	9.0	8.0	3.1	–	–	–	–	7.5
Opina/CEO^[119] ^[120]	16 Jun–1 Jul 2008	2,000	?		34.7	25.9	12.7	9.2	8.8	2.5	–	–	–	–	8.8
Opina/CEO^[121] ^[122]	14–25 Apr 2008	2,000	?		31.9	29.6	11.5	10.4	9.7	3.0	–	–	–	–	2.3
GESOP/El Periódico^[123] ^[124]	22–24 Apr 2008	?	?		35.6	28.4	11.8	8.5	8.9	2.1	–	–	–	–	7.2
La Vanguardia^[125]	9 Mar 2008	?	70.3		30.4	30.3	9.8	10.7	8.0	–	–	–	–	–	0.1
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008		70.3	20.9		45.4	7.8	16.4	4.9	0.7	0.1	0.2	–	–	24.5
GESOP/El Periódico^[126] ^[127]	8–11 Jan 2008	?	?		33.3	27.0	11.8	10.4	8.3	2.4	–	–	–	–	6.3
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[128]	22–25 Oct 2007	800	?		30.8	28.9	14.6	10.6	8.8	3.5	–	–	–	–	1.9
GESOP/El Periódico^[129]	14 Oct 2007	?	?		33.0	27.0	14.0	9.5	8.5	2.0	–	–	–	–	6.0
Opina/CEO^[130] ^[131]	17–28 Sep 2007	2,200	?		30.4	28.5	13.3	8.6	10.2	1.9	–	–	–	–	1.9
Opina/CEO^[132] ^[133]	18 Jun–2 Jul 2007	2,200	?		33.4	27.0	11.9	9.0	9.9	3.6	–	–	–	–	6.4
GESOP/El Periódico^[134]	25–27 Jun 2007	?	?		33.0	27.0	13.3	9.5	9.0	2.5	–	–	–	–	6.0
2007 local elections	27 May 2007		53.9	25.3		32.2	11.7	9.9	9.1	2.3	0.4	–	–	–	6.9
GESOP/El Periódico^[135]	15–17 Apr 2007	800	?		32.0	28.6	12.5	9.8	10.0	2.7	–	–	–	–	3.4
Opina/CEO^[136]	2–16 Mar 2007	2,200	?		29.8	27.6	13.8	10.2	10.2	3.5	–	–	–	–	2.2
GESOP/El Periódico^[137]	17–18 Jan 2007	800	?		31.1	28.4	12.2	10.5	9.9	4.0	–	–	–	–	2.7
DYM/CEO^[138]	6–20 Nov 2006	2,100	?		32.6	26.3	13.1	8.6	10.5	6.0	–	–	–	–	6.3
2006 regional election	1 Nov 2006		56.0		31.5	26.8	14.0	10.7	9.5	3.0	–	–	–	–	4.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							PxC	RI.cat	SI			Lead
2010 regional election	28 Nov 2010			22.9	10.9	4.2	7.3	4.4	2.0	1.4	0.7	2.0		40.1	12.0
GESOP/El Periòdic	25–27 Nov 2010	900		32.9	14.1	5.7	6.1	6.9	2.6	–	–	2.0	16.1	5.6	18.8
GESOP/El Periòdic	24–26 Nov 2010	900		30.8	14.9	5.2	6.0	7.2	2.2	–	–	1.9	16.0	6.3	15.9
GESOP/El Periòdic	23–25 Nov 2010	900		30.8	16.8	4.8	5.5	5.3	3.2	–	–	2.3	15.8	5.8	14.0
GESOP/El Periòdic	22–24 Nov 2010	800		30.8	16.3	4.8	5.6	6.8	2.3	–	–	2.1	13.7	7.0	14.5
GESOP/El Periòdic	20–23 Nov 2010	700		30.3	17.3	4.6	5.8	6.8	2.6	–	–	2.0	12.9	7.3	13.0
GESOP/El Periòdic	20–22 Nov 2010	600		32.0	18.3	4.4	5.9	5.3	2.9	–	–	2.3	12.8	6.0	13.7
GESOP/El Periódico	20–21 Nov 2010	400		29.8	16.0	4.8	5.8	4.8	2.8	–	–	3.0	16.5	4.3	13.8
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	15–20 Nov 2010	2,500		25.7	12.8	4.8	4.9	4.0	1.9	0.7	0.5	1.6	–	–	12.9
Feedback/RAC 1	8–12 Nov 2010	1,000		25.5	13.3	5.4	3.5	3.0	1.1	0.4	0.6	1.3	26.3	10.0	12.2
CIS	15 Oct–4 Nov 2010	2,966		20.6	13.4	5.8	5.1	5.4	2.4	0.6	0.8	0.7	19.1	17.5	7.2
Feedback/RAC 1	18–22 Oct 2010	1,000		28.4	10.6	4.2	4.0	5.2	1.9	0.8	1.2	1.8	22.2	9.0	17.8
GESOP/CEO	11–22 Oct 2010	2,000		24.4	14.2	7.4	6.2	5.2	2.1	–	–	–	22.5	5.9	10.2
GESOP/El Periódico	26–28 Sep 2010	800		29.5	15.9	5.8	4.3	2.9	1.5	–	1.4	1.9	21.2	7.0	13.6
GESOP/CEO	28 Jun–8 Jul 2010	2,000		25.3	14.2	6.0	3.8	5.6	1.0	–	–	–	28.3	7.0	11.1
Metroscopia/El País	1 Jul 2010	302		22.2	19.9	5.6	6.6	1.0	1.0	–	–	–	23.5	10.6	2.3
GESOP/El Periódico	10–11 Jun 2010	800		32.3	16.1	7.1	3.9	4.1	0.8	0.4	1.1	–	14.2	11.0	16.2
GESOP/CEO	16–30 Apr 2010	2,000		25.0	17.5	6.6	4.3	5.0	1.1	–	–	–	21.8	9.2	7.5
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	7–16 Apr 2010	2,500		24.6	20.1	5.7	4.3	5.0	1.0	0.3	0.7	–	–	–	4.5
GESOP/El Periódico	15–18 Mar 2010	?		29.6	20.0	5.9	4.0	5.3	0.9	0.6	–	–	13.3	8.6	9.6
GESOP/CEO	13–28 Jan 2010	2,000		23.0	17.4	7.6	4.9	5.6	1.2	–	–	–	20.8	10.5	5.6
Opina/CEO	2–13 Nov 2009	2,000		21.8	15.7	8.1	4.8	5.0	0.8	–	–	–	15.9	13.9	6.1
GESOP/El Periódico	26–28 Oct 2009	800		25.3	22.9	8.3	4.6	5.9	0.6	–	–	–	13.3	11.5	2.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	1–4 Sep 2009	?	22.3		22.6	3.6	5.2	4.9	0.8	0.2	0.5	–	–	–	0.3
GESOP/El Periódico	14–15 Jul 2009	600		21.2	20.3	8.7	3.3	6.2	0.3	–	–	–	–	–	0.9
Opina/CEO	29 Jun–10 Jul 2009	2,000		23.8	18.0	8.4	3.9	6.9	1.1	–	–	–	23.3	8.6	5.8
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009		8.4		13.4	3.4	6.7	2.3	0.1	–	–	–		62.5	5.0
Opina/CEO	20–30 Apr 2009	2,000		24.9	19.7	9.6	3.8	5.1	1.1	–	–	–	23.0	6.9	5.2
GESOP/El Periódico	9–11 Mar 2009	800		26.6	25.4	8.3	2.9	7.0	1.3	–	–	–	13.3	8.0	1.2
Opina/CEO	19–28 Jan 2009	2,000		21.4	21.0	9.8	3.7	5.9	1.3	–	–	–	18.3	9.7	0.4
GESOP/El Periódico	10–13 Nov 2008	800	25.8		27.9	10.4	3.6	5.0	0.8	–	–	–	12.8	8.4	2.1
Opina/CEO	20–28 Oct 2008	2,000	21.2		21.6	7.9	5.2	7.1	0.7	–	–	–	20.7	9.9	0.4
GESOP/El Periódico	1–2 Jul 2008	?	25.5		26.8	11.5	3.9	5.3	1.4	–	–	–	13.5	8.5	1.3
Opina/CEO	16 Jun–1 Jul 2008	2,000		23.1	22.0	11.3	4.0	6.1	1.1	–	–	–	19.1	7.4	1.1
Opina/CEO	14–25 Apr 2008	2,000	21.5		27.9	9.5	4.5	7.6	1.4	–	–	–	18.2	6.3	6.4
GESOP/El Periódico	22–24 Apr 2008	?	29.4		30.3	10.4	2.6	5.5	0.9	–	–	–	11.0	5.6	0.9
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008		14.9		32.1	5.6	11.6	3.5	0.5	0.0	–	–		28.8	17.2
Opina/CEO^[139]	21–30 Jan 2008	2,000	20.8		21.2	10.8	2.9	7.9	1.6	–	–	–	23.9	7.1	0.4
GESOP/El Periódico	8–11 Jan 2008	?	23.5		26.6	10.9	4.3	6.5	1.1	–	–	–	–	–	3.1
GESOP/El Periódico	14 Oct 2007	?	22.4		25.4	12.6	4.1	5.1	1.5	–	–	–	12.9	9.3	3.0
Opina/CEO	17–28 Sep 2007	2,200	16.6		20.2	10.2	2.4	7.7	1.0	–	–	–	25.7	9.2	3.6
Opina/CEO	18 Jun–2 Jul 2007	2,200	18.5		19.8	9.6	3.1	7.4	1.5	–	–	–	23.9	9.5	1.3
GESOP/El Periódico	25–27 Jun 2007	?		24.5	23.5	11.5	5.1	6.5	1.5	–	–	–	9.9	10.0	1.0
GESOP/El Periódico	15–17 Apr 2007	800	23.7		24.6	11.5	3.4	7.4	1.6	–	–	–	13.4	16.8	0.9
Opina/CEO	2–16 Mar 2007	2,200	19.5		20.2	9.6	4.1	7.2	1.8	–	–	–	22.7	10.1	0.7
GESOP/El Periódico	17–18 Jan 2007	800		24.3	22.6	11.4	4.1	7.4	2.9	–	–	–	13.6	9.1	1.7
DYM/CEO	6–20 Nov 2006	2,100		22.6	17.1	11.0	4.1	9.6	4.4	–	–	–	16.0	9.1	5.5
2006 regional election	1 Nov 2006			17.8	15.2	7.9	6.0	5.4	1.7	–	–	–		43.2	2.6

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							PxC	RI.cat	SI	Other/ None		Lead
Metroscopia/El País	16–17 Nov 2010	1,508		50.0	27.0	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	23.0		23.0
Opina/Cadena SER	8–9 Nov 2010	1,200		36.4	20.8	5.3	7.1	3.1	1.2	–	0.6	2.7	8.9	14.0	15.6
CIS	15 Oct–4 Nov 2010	2,966		27.6	19.1	8.0	5.9	6.9	3.1	0.7	0.9	0.7	0.6	26.3	8.5

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							PxC	RI.cat	SI	Other/ None		Lead
Opina/Cadena SER	8–9 Nov 2010	1,200		66.7	12.8	0.4	3.4	0.6	0.3	–	0.0	0.3	–	15.6	53.9
CIS	15 Oct–4 Nov 2010	2,966		56.9	14.1	0.5	5.5	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	–	0.1	22.4	42.8

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size												Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
GESOP/El Periòdic	25–27 Nov 2010	900		40.0	15.0	–	5.0	–	–	4.2	–	6.2	3.3	2.9	–	–	25.0
GESOP/El Periòdic	24–26 Nov 2010	900		38.2	15.4	–	4.9	–	–	4.8	–	6.2	2.6	2.8	–	–	22.8
GESOP/El Periòdic	23–25 Nov 2010	900		37.4	16.2	–	4.2	–	–	4.2	–	6.2	3.2	2.9	–	–	21.2
GESOP/El Periòdic	22–24 Nov 2010	800		35.6	16.4	–	3.4	–	–	4.6	–	5.9	3.4	3.0	–	–	19.2
GESOP/El Periòdic	20–23 Nov 2010	700		36.9	17.1	–	3.9	–	–	4.6	–	5.0	4.0	2.6	–	–	19.8
GESOP/El Periòdic	20–22 Nov 2010	600		33.7	17.3	–	5.0	–	–	4.3	–	3.8	3.7	3.2	–	–	16.4
GESOP/El Periódico	20–21 Nov 2010	400		32.8	17.8	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	15.0
GESOP/El Periódico^[140]	7–10 Nov 2010	800		38.6	17.4	–	5.0	–	–	4.6	–	5.1	1.6	4.5	17.5	5.7	21.2
Opina/Cadena SER	8–9 Nov 2010	1,200		38.6	20.1	–	4.6	–	–	4.1	–	2.7	1.2	2.7	9.0	17.0	18.5
CIS	15 Oct–4 Nov 2010	2,966		30.9	17.5	–	5.5	–	–	3.9	–	5.4	2.7	–	8.1	26.0	13.4
GESOP/El Periódico^[141]	26–28 Sep 2010	800		37.3	18.3	–	5.1	–	–	2.9	–	2.8	2.3	5.6	25.2	6.9	19.0
GESOP/El Periódico^[142]	10–11 Jun 2010	800		32.6	18.0	–	6.4	–	–	3.8	–	5.0	–	4.6	29.6		14.6
GESOP/El Periódico^[143]	15–18 Mar 2010	?		31.9	24.1	–	6.6	–	–	2.8	–	4.5	1.3	5.0	23.8		7.8
GESOP/El Periódico	26–28 Oct 2009	800		27.3	25.4	–	7.6	–	–	3.1	–	5.6	–	–	31.0		1.9
GESOP/El Periódico^[144]	1–2 Jul 2008	?	25.6		32.6	9.4	–	–	1.4	–	4.8	–	2.1	–	24.1		7.0
GESOP/El Periódico	22–24 Apr 2008	?	26.1		30.0	9.6	–	–	1.5	–	6.0	–	2.0	–	24.8		3.9
GESOP/El Periódico^[145]	14 Oct 2007	?	25.8		26.5	10.3	–	–	1.8	–	6.0	–	1.8	–	27.8		0.7
GESOP/El Periódico	25–27 Jun 2007	?		26.0	25.3	9.3	–	7.0	–	–	5.3	–	2.3	–	24.8		0.7
GESOP/El Periódico^[146]	15–17 Apr 2007	800		26.3	26.1	10.1	–	3.9	–	–	7.6	–	2.4	–	23.6		0.2
GESOP/El Periódico	17–18 Jan 2007	800		26.1	22.3	10.1	–	6.0	–	–	6.9	–	2.6	–	26.0		3.8

Mas vs. Montilla

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	15–20 Nov 2010	2,500		43.9	21.3	34.8		22.6
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3	19 Nov 2010	?		51.2	31.2	13.2	4.4	20.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	15–18 Nov 2010	1,200		51.0	28.0	21.0		23.0
Feedback/RAC 1	8–12 Nov 2010	1,000		51.9	22.1	25.4	0.6	29.8
GESOP/El Periódico	7–10 Nov 2010	800		56.4	32.1	11.5		24.3
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3	24 Oct 2010	?		53.6	25.2	14.1	7.1	28.4
Feedback/RAC 1	18–22 Oct 2010	1,000		50.5	23.1	23.1	3.3	27.4
GESOP/El Periódico	26–28 Sep 2010	800		56.5	28.4	15.1		28.1
Feedback/RAC 1	20–24 Sep 2010	1,000		56.0	24.0	16.3	3.7	32.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	1–2 Sep 2010	800		44.0	27.0	29.0		17.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	12–14 Jul 2010	1,000		52.0	25.0	23.0		27.0
GESOP/El Periódico	10–11 Jun 2010	800		52.3	34.3	13.4		18.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	10–13 May 2010	1,000		50.0	28.0	22.0		22.0
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	7–16 Apr 2010	2,500		34.0	26.8	39.2		7.2
GESOP/El Periódico	15–18 Mar 2010	?		47.6	38.8	13.6		8.8
Noxa/La Vanguardia	8–10 Mar 2010	1,000		50.0	30.0	20.0		20.0
GESOP/El Periódico	26–28 Oct 2009	800		45.8	42.8	13.6		3.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	22–27 Oct 2009	1,000		45.0	34.0	21.0		11.0
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	1–4 Sep 2009	?		34.1	29.6	36.3		4.5
GESOP/El Periódico^[147]	9–11 Mar 2009	800		45.4	44.8	9.8		0.6
Noxa/La Vanguardia	24–27 Nov 2008	600		46.0	36.0	18.0		10.0
GESOP/El Periódico^[148]	10–13 Nov 2008	800	39.9		45.4	14.7		5.5
GESOP/El Periódico	1–2 Jul 2008	?	41.1		47.6	11.3		6.5
GESOP/El Periódico	22–24 Apr 2008	?	42.6		49.4	8.0		6.8
GESOP/El Periódico	8–11 Jan 2008	?	40.9		43.8	15.3		2.9
Noxa/La Vanguardia	22–25 Oct 2007	800	37.0		42.0	10.0	11.0	5.0

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	15–20 Nov 2010	2,500		69.7	12.5	–	–	–	–	–	17.8		57.2
GESOP/El Periódico	7–10 Nov 2010	800		75.1	13.4	–	–	–	–	–	0.8	10.7	61.7
Opina/Cadena SER	8–9 Nov 2010	1,200		66.6	10.9	0.4	1.8	0.2	0.5	0.8	0.0	18.8	55.7
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	7–16 Apr 2010	2,500		43.4	22.4	–	–	–	–	–	34.2		21.0
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público	1–4 Sep 2009	?	28.2		35.1	–	–	–	–	–	36.7		6.9

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 28 November 2010 Parliament of Catalonia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Convergence and Union (CiU)	1,202,830	38.43	+6.91	62	+14
	Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)	575,233	18.38	–8.44	28	–9
	People's Party (PP)	387,066	12.37	+1.72	18	+4
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–United and Alternative Left (ICV–EUiA)	230,824	7.37	–2.15	10	–2
	Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)	219,173	7.00	–7.03	10	–11
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	106,154	3.39	+0.36	3	±0
	Catalan Solidarity for Independence (SI)	102,921	3.29	New	4	+4
	Platform for Catalonia (PxC)	75,134	2.40	New	0	±0
	Independence Rally (RI.cat)	39,834	1.27	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats–Citizens for Blank Votes (EB–CenB)^1	18,679	0.60	+0.35	0	±0
	The Greens–European Green Group (EV–GVE)	15,784	0.50	New	0	±0
	Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	14,238	0.45	–0.01	0	±0
	From Below (Des de Baix)	7,189	0.23	New	0	±0
	Reus Independent Coordinator (CORI)	6,990	0.22	New	0	±0
	Pirates of Catalonia (Pirata.cat)	6,451	0.21	New	0	±0
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	5,418	0.17	New	0	±0
	Pensioners in Action Party (PDLPEA)	3,330	0.11	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Catalan People (PCPC)	3,028	0.10	–0.08	0	±0
	Government Alternative (AG)	2,208	0.07	New	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFiV)	2,201	0.07	–0.02	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	2,100	0.07	+0.04	0	±0
	Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI)	1,920	0.06	–0.13	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	1,760	0.06	New	0	±0
	Left Republican Party–Republican Left (PRE–IR)	1,547	0.05	+0.03	0	±0
	Castilian Party (PCAS)	1,066	0.03	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	908	0.03	–0.06	0	±0
	Communist Unification of Spain (UCE)	904	0.03	New	0	±0
	Farmers for the Catalan Rural Dignity (PDR.cat)	824	0.03	New	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	788	0.03	–0.01	0	±0
	Our People (GN)	597	0.02	New	0	±0
	We Are All Equal (GLBTH/TSI)	498	0.02	New	0	±0
	Party for Catalonia (PxCAT)	314	0.01	New	0	±0
	Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)	218	0.01	New	0	±0
	Catalan Sovereigntist Bloc (Bloc SC)	187	0.01	New	0	±0
	Aragonese Party (PAR)	98	0.00	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)	82	0.00	New	0	±0
	Social and Liberal Alternative (ALS)	54	0.00	New	0	±0
	Progress and Justice Party (PJP)	49	0.00	New	0	±0
	Democratic Web (DW)	46	0.00	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		91,631	2.93	+0.90
Total		3,130,276			135	±0
Valid votes		3,130,276	99.29	–0.25
Invalid votes		22,354	0.71	+0.25
Votes cast / turnout		3,152,630	58.78	+2.74
Abstentions		2,211,058	41.22	–2.74
Registered voters		5,363,688
Sources^[149] ^[150]

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	CiU		PSC		PP		ICV–EUiA		ERC		C's		SI
	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S
Barcelona	36.8	35	19.2	18	12.9	12	8.3	8	6.4	6	3.8	3	3.1	3
Girona	45.1	9	14.3	3	8.6	1	4.8	1	9.2	2	1.7	−	4.7	1
Lleida	46.9	8	14.8	3	10.2	2	4.0	−	9.1	1	1.5	−	3.1	−
Tarragona	39.3	9	18.2	4	13.4	3	5.1	1	8.5	1	2.7	−	3.4	−
Total	38.4	62	18.4	28	12.4	18	7.4	10	7.0	10	3.4	3	3.3	4
Sources

Aftermath

Investiture Artur Mas (CiU)
Ballot →		21 December 2010	23 December 2010
Required majority →		68 out of 135	Simple
	Absentees
Sources

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Notes and References

1. News: 29 June 2010 . Spanish Constitutional Court cuts back Catalan Statute of Autonomy . Nationalia . 21 September 2017.
2. News: Govan . Fiona . 29 June 2010 . Catalonia can call itself a 'nation', rules Spain's top court . The Daily Telegraph . Madrid . 21 September 2017.
3. News: Piñol . Àngels . Cia . Blanca . 25 October 2010 . Montilla entierra el tripartito y descarta repetirlo aunque sume . es . El País . Barcelona . 7 January 2018.
4. News: 28 November 2010 . Montilla dejará la secretaría general del PSC . es . Libertad Digital . 7 January 2018.
5. Ley Orgánica 6/2006, de 19 de julio, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña] ]. Organic Law . 6 . es . 19 July 2006 . 14 March 2017.
6. Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña] ]. Organic Law . 4 . es . 18 December 1979 . 14 March 2017.
7. Web site: Gallagher . Michael . 30 July 2012 . Effective threshold in electoral systems . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php . dead . 30 July 2017 . Trinity College, Dublin . 22 July 2017.
8. Boletín Oficial del Estado . 241 . 5 October 2010 . 84530 . 0212-033X . Decreto 132/2010, de 4 de octubre, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Cataluña y de su disolución . es.
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143. Web site: Mas es el 'president' preferido ante un Montilla que suspende . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 24 March 2010.
144. Web site: Montilla mantiene la ventaja en el pulso con Mas . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 10 July 2008.
145. Web site: Montilla recupera puntos como buen 'president' . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 14 October 2007.
146. Web site: Montilla va forjándose una imagen de buen 'president' . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 26 April 2007.
147. Web site: Mas se impone en el cara a cara con Montilla . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 22 March 2009.
148. Web site: Montilla gana con menos holgura el pulso con Mas . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 20 November 2008.
149. Web site: Electoral results. Parliament of Catalonia election 2010 . ca . resultats.dadeselectorals.gencat.cat . . 24 September 2017.
150. Web site: Parliament of Catalonia election results, 28 November 2010 . 14 January 2011 . es . www.juntaelectoralcentral.es . . 25 September 2017.