2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Country:Wisconsin
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
Next Year:2012
Turnout:69.2% (3.7%)[1]
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee1:Barack Obama
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Illinois
Running Mate1:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote1:10
Popular Vote1:1,677,211
Percentage1:56.22%
Nominee2:John McCain
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Arizona
Running Mate2:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:1,262,393
Percentage2:42.31%
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, and his running mate U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Also on the ballot were four third parties: activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader ran as an Independent with his running mate, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez. The Libertarian Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Bob Barr for president and conservative author Wayne Allyn Root for vice president. Pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle were nominated by the right-wing Constitution Party, and the left-wing Green Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Cynthia McKinney and community organizer Rosa Clemente.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 13.91% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state, despite the extremely close margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections. Polling throughout the state began to show a sizable and widening lead for Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois over Republican John McCain of Arizona. Obama carried Wisconsin with over 56% of the vote, significantly improving upon John Kerry's very narrow margin of victory in 2004. Obama is the only candidate since 1988 to win the state with the majority of the vote, and the only candidate since 1996 to win by a margin of more than 1%, both of which he would go on to do again in 2012.

Whether measured by raw vote margin, percentage of total votes, or two-party percentage, Obama's victory remains the strongest performance for any candidate in the state since the landslide re-election of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In fact, Obama carried two of three counties that voted for Barry Goldwater in that election and became the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry Waupaca County, and only the second Democratic nominee to carry that county since the Civil War. This is also the last election where Wisconsin was decided by double digits. As of 2020, Obama's 1,677,211 votes are the most received by a presidential candidate in the state's history.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2]
Cook Political Report[3]
The Takeaway[4]
Electoral-vote.com[5]
The Washington PostWashington Post[6]
Politico[7]
RealClearPolitics[8]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[9]
The New York Times[10]
CNN[11]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[12]
Associated Press[13]
Rasmussen Reports[14]

Polling

Pre-election polling early on showed a tight race. However, after May 18, Obama swept every single poll. Since September 21, Obama won every poll with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 53% to 40%.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,728,185 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,862,486.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $13,586,634. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,240,899.[17] Each ticket visited the state 7 times.[18]

Analysis

Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominees by comfortable margins in 1988, 1992, and 1996, but extremely narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was originally considered to be a swing state in 2008.[19] However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state.[20]

Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory. Obama carried the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison by large margins, winning above two-thirds of the vote, along with some traditionally Republican cities like Green Bay and Appleton.[21] In Dane County, he won almost 73% of the vote, and carried 67.3% in Milwaukee County. This was consistent with Obama's pattern of strong performances in the states bordering Illinois. Obama's best performance, at 86.81%, was in the small county of Menominee, which is 87% Native American.[22] The state's Republican base essentially melted; John McCain only carried 13 of the state's 72 counties, a devastating defeat. McCain did best in the Milwaukee suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, with his best performance in Washington County where he received 64.14% of the vote. He only won five counties in the Northern part of the state, all of which by rather narrow margins. Wisconsin would not vote for a Republican candidate for president until it voted for Donald Trump in 2016, though it would flip back to the Democratic column in 2020 with Joe Biden back on the ballot.

, this is the last election in which the counties of Barron, Brown, Burnett, Calumet, Chippewa, Clark, Iron, Jefferson, Kewaunee, Langlade, Manitowoc, Marathon, Marinette, Monroe, Oconto, Oneida, Outagamie, Pierce, Rusk, Shawano, Washburn, Waupaca, Waushara, and Wood voted for the Democratic presidential nominee.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[23]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden 1,677,211 56.22%10
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin1,262,39342.31%0
IndependentMatt Gonzalez17,6050.59%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root8,8580.30%0
Write-ins Write-ins 6,5210.22%0
IndependentDarrell Castle5,0720.17%0
GreenRosa Clemente4,2160.14%0
Independent7640.03%0
IndependentStewart Alexander5400.02%0
Independent2370.01%0
Totals2,983,417100.00%10
Voter turnout (Voting age population)70.8%

By county

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic		John McCain
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Adams5,80658.14%3,97439.80%2062.06%1,83218.34%9,986
Ashland5,81867.86%2,63430.72%1221.42%3,18437.14%8,574
Barron12,07852.77%10,45745.69%3511.54%1,6217.08%22,886
Bayfield5,97263.08%3,36535.54%1311.38%2,60727.54%9,468
Brown67,26953.92%55,85444.77%1,6311.31%11,4159.15%124,754
Buffalo3,94956.41%2,92341.76%1281.83%1,02614.65%7,000
Burnett4,33749.92%4,20048.34%1511.74%1371.58%8,688
Calumet13,29550.22%12,72248.05%4571.73%5732.17%26,474
Chippewa16,23953.72%13,49244.63%5001.65%2,7479.09%30,231
Clark7,45452.54%6,38344.99%3502.47%1,0717.55%14,187
Columbia16,66156.92%12,19341.65%4181.43%4,46815.27%29,272
Crawford4,98762.49%2,83035.46%1642.05%2,15727.03%7,981
Dane205,98472.80%73,06525.82%3,8901.37%132,91946.98%282,939
Dodge19,18344.80%23,01553.74%6251.46%-3,832-8.94%42,823
Door10,14258.02%7,11240.68%2271.30%3,03017.34%17,481
Douglas15,83065.78%7,83532.56%4011.66%7,99533.22%24,066
Dunn13,00256.56%9,56641.61%4211.83%3,43614.95%22,989
Eau Claire33,14660.25%20,95938.10%9051.65%12,18722.15%55,010
Florence1,13442.23%1,51256.31%391.46%-378-14.08%2,685
Fond du Lac23,46344.84%28,16453.83%6961.33%-4,701-8.99%52,323
Forest2,67357.08%1,96341.92%471.00%71015.16%4,683
Grant14,87561.16%9,06837.29%3771.55%5,80723.87%24,320
Green11,50262.06%6,73036.31%3021.63%4,77225.75%18,534
Green Lake4,00041.95%5,39356.55%1431.50%-1,393-14.60%9,536
Iowa7,98766.73%3,82931.99%1531.28%4,15834.74%11,969
Iron1,91455.77%1,46442.66%541.57%45013.11%3,432
Jackson5,57260.23%3,55238.40%1271.37%2,02021.83%9,251
Jefferson21,44849.69%21,09648.87%6221.44%3520.82%43,166
Juneau6,18653.65%5,14844.65%1961.70%1,0389.00%11,530
Kenosha45,83658.18%31,60940.12%1,3441.70%14,22718.06%78,789
Kewaunee5,90254.71%4,71143.67%1741.62%1,19111.04%10,787
La Crosse38,52460.94%23,70137.49%9931.57%14,82323.45%63,218
Lafayette4,73260.43%2,98438.10%1151.47%1,74822.33%7,831
Langlade5,18249.82%5,08148.85%1391.33%1010.97%10,402
Lincoln8,42455.17%6,51942.70%3252.13%1,90512.47%15,268
Manitowoc22,42852.88%19,23445.35%7521.77%3,1947.53%42,414
Marathon36,36753.53%30,34544.66%1,2281.81%6,0228.87%67,940
Marinette11,19552.67%9,72645.76%3341.57%1,4696.91%21,255
Marquette4,06851.85%3,65446.57%1241.58%4145.28%7,846
Menominee1,25786.81%18512.78%60.41%1,07274.03%1,448
Milwaukee319,81967.30%149,44531.45%5,9281.25%170,37435.85%475,192
Monroe10,19853.25%8,66645.25%2881.50%1,5328.00%19,152
Oconto9,92752.34%8,75546.16%2861.50%1,1726.18%18,968
Oneida11,90754.30%9,63043.92%3901.78%2,27710.38%21,927
Outagamie50,29454.93%39,67743.33%1,5921.74%10,61711.60%91,563
Ozaukee20,57938.56%32,17260.29%6141.15%-11,593-21.73%53,365
Pepin2,10255.74%1,61642.85%531.41%48612.89%3,771
Pierce11,80353.39%9,81244.38%4922.23%1,9919.01%22,107
Polk10,87648.03%11,28249.83%4852.14%-406-1.80%22,643
Portage24,81762.95%13,81035.03%7952.02%11,00727.92%39,422
Price4,55955.64%3,46142.24%1742.12%1,09813.40%8,194
Racine53,40853.07%45,95445.66%1,2801.27%7,4547.41%100,642
Richland5,04159.66%3,29839.03%1111.31%1,74320.63%8,450
Rock50,52963.82%27,36434.56%1,2761.62%23,16529.26%79,169
Rusk3,85553.01%3,25344.73%1642.26%6028.28%7,272
St. Croix21,17747.25%22,83750.95%8071.80%-1,660-3.70%44,821
Sauk18,61760.79%11,56237.75%4471.46%7,05523.04%30,626
Sawyer4,76552.45%4,19946.22%1211.33%5666.23%9,085
Shawano10,25951.07%9,53847.48%2921.45%7213.59%20,089
Sheboygan30,39548.94%30,80149.59%9111.47%-406-0.65%62,107
Taylor4,56348.82%4,58649.07%1972.11%-23-0.25%9,346
Trempealeau8,32162.50%4,80836.11%1851.39%3,51326.39%13,314
Vernon8,46360.13%5,36738.13%2451.74%3,09622.00%14,075
Vilas6,49147.21%7,05551.31%2041.48%-564-4.10%13,750
Walworth24,17747.95%25,48550.54%7601.51%-1,308-2.59%50,422
Washburn4,69351.50%4,30347.22%1161.28%3904.28%9,112
Washington25,71934.56%47,72964.14%9631.30%-22,010-29.58%74,411
Waukesha85,33936.64%145,15262.32%2,4061.04%-59,813-25.68%232,897
Waupaca12,95250.77%12,23247.95%3271.28%7202.82%25,511
Waushara5,86849.52%5,77048.70%2111.78%980.82%11,849
Winnebago48,16754.94%37,94643.28%1,5641.78%10,22111.66%87,677
Wood21,71055.59%16,58142.46%7611.95%5,12913.13%39,052
Totals1,677,21156.22%1,262,39342.31%43,8131.47%414,81813.91%2,983,417

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Barack Obama flipped 32 counties that voted for George W. Bush in 2004.[24] [25]

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept the state, carrying seven of the state's eight congressional districts, including two districts held by Republicans. Three of these districts – the 1st (then represented by future vice presidential nominee and Speaker of the House Paul Ryan), 6th, and 8th – Obama flipped from the 2004 election.[26] McCain only won the 5th district, a portion of the Milwaukee suburbs.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
47.45%51.40%Paul Ryan
29.78%69.00%Tammy Baldwin
40.80%57.76%Ron Kind
23.61%75.39%Gwen Moore
57.73%41.28%Jim Sensenbrenner
48.72%49.91%Tom Petri
42.52%55.91%David Obey
45.12%53.59%Steve Kagen

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[27] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[28]

  1. Ray Rivera
  2. Fred Risser
  3. Rollie Hick
  4. Polly Williams
  5. Dean Palmer
  6. Gordon Hintz
  7. Christine Bremer-Muggli
  8. Donsia Strong Hill
  9. Jim Doyle
  10. Joe Wineke

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics . Wisconsin Election Commission . 25 September 2020.
  2. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  3. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  4. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  5. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  6. Based on Takeaway
  7. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  8. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  9. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  10. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  11. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  12. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  13. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  14. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  15. Web site: Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. 19 December 2022.
  16. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324090126/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=WI&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  17. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  18. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  19. Web site: Reality Check: Wisconsin Still Considered A Swing State. 2008-11-12. https://web.archive.org/web/20080916165828/http://www.channel3000.com/politics/17194590/detail.html. 2008-09-16. dead.
  20. Web site: RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin Head-to-Head Polls. 2008-11-12.
  21. News: Local and National Election Results. 2008-11-12 . CNN.
  22. Web site: U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Menominee County, Wisconsin; Wisconsin. 2020-11-18. www.census.gov. en.
  23. Web site: OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES PRESIDENT - NOVEMBER 4, 2008. live . https://web.archive.org/web/20231103203227/http://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2008pres.pdf . 2023-11-03 . pdf . 2023-12-30 . Federal Election Commission . pdf.
  24. Web site: Wisconsin - Election Results 2008 - The New York Times. 2020-11-18. www.nytimes.com.
  25. News: Wisconsin. en-US. The New York Times. 2020-11-18. 0362-4331.
  26. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project. 2020-11-18. en-US.
  27. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  28. Web site: The Electoral College. 20 May 2019.

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