2008 United States presidential election in Oregon explained

Election Name:	2008 United States presidential election in Oregon
Country:	Oregon
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2004 United States presidential election in Oregon
Previous Year:	2004
Next Election:	2012 United States presidential election in Oregon
Next Year:	2012
Election Date:	November 4, 2008
Image1:	File:Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee1:	Barack Obama
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:	Illinois
Running Mate1:	Joe Biden
Electoral Vote1:	7
Popular Vote1:	1,037,291
Percentage1:	56.75%
Nominee2:	John McCain
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:	Arizona
Running Mate2:	Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	738,475
Percentage2:	40.40%
Map Size:	300px
President
Before Election:	George W. Bush
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Barack Obama
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose seven representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Oregon was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 16.4% margin of victory, making him the first successful Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win over 50% of the state's votes. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Situated on the West Coast, which has become a reliably Democratic stronghold, Oregon is a relatively blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Oregon was Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide reelection. Although George W. Bush came close in both 2000 and 2004 (with Al Gore winning by 0.54 percentage points in 2000 and John Kerry by 4.16 percentage points in 2004), Republicans have not seriously contested the state since. This is also the first time that a presidential candidate won more than a million votes in Oregon.

, this is the most recent election in which Jackson County and Wasco County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, and the last time any Southern Oregon county sided with a Democrat. Marion County, which sided with Obama, would not vote Democratic again until 2020.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report^[1]
Cook Political Report^[2]
The Takeaway^[3]
Electoral-vote.com^[4]
The Washington Post	Washington Post^[5]
Politico^[6]
RealClearPolitics^[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics^[8]
The New York Times^[9]
CNN^[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News^[11]
Associated Press^[12]
Rasmussen Reports^[13]

Polling

Obama won every single pre-election poll. Since September 22, Obama won each by a double-digit margin of victory and at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 polls showed Obama leading 55% to 41%.^[14]

Fundraising

McCain raised a total of $1,258,426 in the state. Obama raised $6,660,622.^[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,194,908. McCain and his interest groups spent just $159,222.^[16] Neither campaign visited the state.^[17]

Analysis

Voters in Oregon have a strong penchant for advancing the protection of civil liberties and individual freedoms, liberal values that have given Democrats a big edge in the state in recent years. The state once leaned Republican, like most of the Pacific Northwest. It only went Democratic once from 1948 to 1984—during Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. However, the state has gone Democratic in every election since 1988, and along with California and Washington it is reckoned as forming a solid bloc of blue states along the Pacific Coast.

On Election Day, Obama carried the state by 16.35 points. As Oregon was expected to be easily won by Obama, it was called for him as soon as the polls in the state closed. Besides Jackson County in the southwest and Wasco County in the central third, most rural counties in Oregon favored McCain in the 2008 election. Nevertheless, Obama performed much better in these regions than John Kerry had in 2004. Ultimately, Obama's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley, home to two-thirds of the state's population, would have allowed him to win the state decisively in any event, coupled with the counties making up the northern half of the Oregon Coast. The state remains geographically and politically divided by the Cascade Mountains, with eastern Oregon and the southwest being more rural, less populated and therefore strongly Republican, while the Willamette Valley is more urbanized and therefore strongly Democratic. These two areas compose the core of each party's votes: rural Oregon is strongly Republican and culturally similar to Idaho, while the Willamette Valley—especially the cities of Portland and Eugene—heavily favors the Democrats.

While Republicans typically win more counties due to running up large margins in the east and southwest, Democrats typically win the state because the Willamette Valley has more people. In 2008, Obama's overwhelming margins in Portland and Eugene, combined with strong support from Portland's suburbs (which function as swing counties), enabled him to win a landslide in a structurally liberal state. Although Obama broke no decades-long Republican county streaks, he came within 0.49 percent of winning Polk County and 1.36 percent of winning Yamhill County, neither of which have voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. While not having carried Deschutes County, Obama was only 0.31 percent away from winning it. Prior to Joe Biden in 2020, this was the closest a Democratic candidate came to winning Deschutes County after the 1992 presidential election.^[18]

During the same election, Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Jeff Merkley defeated incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Gordon Smith by a narrow 3.35% margin. Merkley received 48.90 percent of the vote while Smith took in 45.55 percent, with the remaining 5.24 percent going to Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party. At the state level, Democrats picked up five seats in the Oregon House of Representatives while Republicans picked up one seat in the Oregon Senate.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Oregon
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	1,037,291	56.75%	7
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	738,475	40.40%	0
	Peace	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	18,614	1.02%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		13,613	0.74%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	7,693	0.42%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	7,635	0.42%	0
	Pacific Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	4,543	0.25%	0
Totals				1,827,864	100.00%	7
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						62.9%

Results by county

County	Barack Obama Democratic		John McCain Republican		Ralph Nader Peace		Charles Baldwin Constitution		Bob Barr Libertarian		Cynthia McKinney Pacific Green		Various candidates Write-ins		Margin		Total votes cast
County		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%	Total votes cast
	Baker		2,805		31.96%		5,650		64.37%		106		1.21%		55		0.63%	51	0.58%	23	0.26%	87	0.99%	-2,845	-32.41%	8,777
	Benton		29,901		64.33%		15,264		32.84%		427		0.92%		169		0.36%	214	0.46%	169	0.36%	334	0.72%	14,637	31.49%	46,478
	Clackamas		103,476		53.93%		83,595		43.57%		1,750		0.91%		692		0.36%	717	0.37%	284	0.15%	1,364	0.71%	19,881	10.36%	191,878
	Clatsop		10,701		57.69%		7,192		38.78%		249		1.34%		70		0.38%	101	0.54%	68	0.37%	167	0.90%	3,509	18.91%	18,548
	Columbia		13,390		54.06%		10,413		42.04%		307		1.24%		202		0.82%	123	0.50%	74	0.30%	259	1.05%	2,977	12.02%	24,768
	Coos		14,401		46.53%		15,354		49.61%		422		1.36%		204		0.66%	163	0.53%	103	0.33%	304	0.98%	-953	-3.08%	30,951
	Crook		3,632		35.09%		6,371		61.54%		157		1.52%		37		0.36%	55	0.53%	24	0.23%	76	0.73%	-2,739	-26.45%	10,352
	Curry		5,230		42.41%		6,646		53.89%		174		1.41%		83		0.67%	57	0.46%	26	0.21%	116	0.94%	-1,416	-11.48%	12,332
	Deschutes		38,819		48.66%		39,064		48.96%		702		0.88%		259		0.32%	305	0.38%	129	0.16%	504	0.63%	-245	-0.30%	79,782
	Douglas		20,298		38.34%		30,919		58.41%		561		1.06%		320		0.60%	217	0.41%	128	0.24%	494	0.93%	-10,621	-20.07%	52,937
	Gilliam		430		38.74%		648		58.38%		16		1.44%		6		0.54%	2	0.18%	2	0.18%	6	0.54%	-218	-19.64%	1,110
	Grant		1,006		25.74%		2,785		71.25%		30		0.77%		39		1.00%	15	0.38%	2	0.05%	32	0.82%	-1,779	-45.51%	3,909
	Harney		950		25.79%		2,595		70.46%		51		1.38%		21		0.57%	29	0.79%	10	0.27%	27	0.73%	-1,645	-44.67%	3,683
	Hood River		6,302		64.11%		3,265		33.21%		112		1.14%		44		0.45%	31	0.32%	21	0.21%	55	0.56%	3,037	30.90%	9,830
	Jackson		49,090		48.58%		49,043		48.53%		844		0.84%		601		0.59%	425	0.42%	224	0.22%	820	0.81%	47	0.05%	101,047
	Jefferson		3,682		44.27%		4,402		52.92%		100		1.20%		37		0.44%	22	0.26%	21	0.25%	54	0.65%	-720	-8.65%	8,318
	Josephine		17,412		41.41%		22,973		54.63%		492		1.17%		379		0.90%	234	0.56%	135	0.32%	424	1.01%	-5,561	-13.22%	42,049
	Klamath		9,370		31.87%		19,113		65.01%		300		1.02%		178		0.61%	174	0.59%	68	0.23%	196	0.67%	-9,743	-33.14%	29,399
	Lake		957		25.95%		2,638		71.53%		38		1.03%		19		0.52%	11	0.30%	11	0.30%	14	0.38%	-1,681	-45.58%	3,688
	Lane		114,037		62.35%		63,835		34.90%		1,836		1.00%		590		0.32%	754	0.41%	534	0.29%	1,324	0.72%	50,202	27.45%	182,910
	Lincoln		14,258		59.68%		8,791		36.80%		334		1.40%		83		0.35%	127	0.53%	73	0.31%	223	0.93%	5,467	22.88%	23,889
	Linn		22,163		42.64%		28,071		54.00%		625		1.20%		287		0.55%	237	0.46%	134	0.26%	465	0.89%	-5,908	-11.36%	51,982
	Malheur		2,949		28.27%		7,157		68.60%		85		0.81%		81		0.78%	57	0.55%	28	0.27%	76	0.73%	-4,208	-40.33%	10,433
	Marion		61,816		49.63%		59,059		47.41%		1,257		1.01%		551		0.44%	528	0.42%	328	0.26%	1,024	0.82%	2,757	2.22%	124,563
	Morrow		1,410		34.75%		2,509		61.83%		43		1.06%		33		0.81%	23	0.57%	9	0.22%	31	0.76%	-1,099	-27.08%	4,058
	Multnomah		279,696		76.69%		75,171		20.61%		4,166		1.14%		904		0.25%	1,195	0.33%	1,207	0.33%	2,371	0.65%	204,525	56.08%	364,710
	Polk		17,536		48.43%		17,714		48.92%		320		0.88%		184		0.51%	116	0.32%	79	0.22%	258	0.71%	-178	-0.49%	36,207
	Sherman		385		36.77%		634		60.55%		8		0.76%		6		0.57%	5	0.48%	1	0.10%	8	0.76%	-249	-23.78%	1,047
	Tillamook		7,072		53.18%		5,757		43.30%		197		1.48%		59		0.44%	58	0.44%	42	0.32%	112	0.84%	1,315	9.88%	13,297
	Umatilla		9,484		37.16%		15,254		59.77%		245		0.96%		166		0.65%	113	0.44%	56	0.22%	205	0.80%	-5,770	-22.61%	25,523
	Union		4,613		36.63%		7,581		60.20%		119		0.94%		85		0.67%	63	0.50%	23	0.18%	110	0.87%	-2,968	-23.57%	12,594
	Wallowa		1,492		33.42%		2,836		63.52%		35		0.78%		30		0.67%	24	0.54%	6	0.13%	42	0.94%	-1,344	-30.10%	4,465
	Wasco		5,906		51.90%		5,103		44.84%		140		1.23%		61		0.54%	46	0.40%	31	0.27%	93	0.82%	803	7.06%	11,380
	Washington		141,544		59.82%		89,185		37.69%		1,892		0.80%		895		0.38%	1,148	0.49%	379	0.16%	1,589	0.67%	52,359	22.13%	236,632
	Wheeler		281		34.61%		498		61.33%		11		1.35%		5		0.62%	9	1.11%	1	0.12%	7	0.86%	-217	-26.72%	812
	Yamhill		20,797		47.78%		21,390		49.14%		463		1.06%		258		0.59%	186	0.43%	90	0.21%	342	0.79%	-593	-1.36%	43,526
Totals	1,037,291	56.75%	738,475	40.40%	18,614	1.02%	7,693	0.42%	7,635	0.42%	4,543	0.25%	13,613	0.74%	298,816	16.35%	1,827,864

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
Jackson (largest city: Medford)
Marion (largest city: Salem)
Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
Wasco (largest city: The Dalles)

Results by congressional district

Barack Obama carried four of the state's five congressional districts in Oregon, all held by Democrats.

Obama	McCain	Representative
	61.03%	36.27%		David Wu
	43.21%	53.86%		Greg Walden
	71.39%	25.78%		Earl Blumenauer
	53.79%	43.08%		Peter DeFazio
53.95%	43.33%		Darlene Hooley (110th Congress)
53.95%	43.33%	Kurt Schrader (111th Congress)

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[20]

Michael Bohan
Shirley Cairns
Joe Smith
John McColgan
Meredith Wood Smith
Frank James Dixon
Bernard Gorter

Notes and References

Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
Based on Takeaway
Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
News: 2008-10-31. October - 2008 - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
Web site: Election 2008 Polls. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085957/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=OR&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
Web site: U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates. 20 May 2019.