2008 United States presidential election in North Dakota explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Country:North Dakota
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in North Dakota
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:File:John McCain 2009 Official.jpg
Nominee1:John McCain
Party1:North Dakota Republican Party
Home State1:Arizona
Running Mate1:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote1:3
Popular Vote1:168,887
Percentage1:53.15%
Nominee2:Barack Obama
Party2:North Dakota Democratic–Nonpartisan League Party
Home State2:Illinois
Running Mate2:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:141,403
Percentage2:44.50%
Map Size:300px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:North Dakota Republican Party
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic-NPL

The 2008 United States presidential election in North Dakota took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

North Dakota was won by Republican nominee John McCain by an 8.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a state McCain would narrowly win, or otherwise considered to be a red state. In the final weeks of the race, some news organizations considered the race a toss-up. The state has not been won by a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. Polls showed McCain and Democrat Barack Obama running unusually close in a state that gave George W. Bush a 27.4% margin of victory over John Kerry in 2004. In the end, McCain kept North Dakota in the GOP column but by a much smaller margin than Bush's landslide in 2004.

, this is the last time a Democratic presidential candidate won at least 40% of the vote in North Dakota and the last time in which Cass County, Grand Forks County, Mountrail County, Towner County, Traill County, Nelson County, and Eddy County voted for a Democratic presidential candidate. This is also the last time in which Cass County gave a majority to a candidate of any party. Obama's 44.5% vote share also remains the best Democratic performance in the state since 1976.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[8]
The New York Times[9]
CNN[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[11]
Associated Press[12]
Rasmussen Reports[13]

Polling

Pre-election polls showed a complete toss up. The final 3 polls averaged gave Obama leading 45% to 44%, leaving a lot of undecided voters.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $184,405 in the state. Barack Obama raised $191,551.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $448,361. McCain and his interest groups spent $71,972.[16] Obama visited the state once, in Fargo, North Dakota, while the Republican ticket didn't visit the state once.[17]

Analysis

North Dakota has been considered a reliably red state for the past 40 years, having voted for the Republican presidential nominee of every election since 1968. In 2008, however, polls taken before September surprisingly showed the two candidates running neck-to-neck. While the polls varied throughout the campaign, McCain's selection of the socially conservative Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his vice presidential running mate played well in North Dakota, a state that has the lowest percentage of nonreligious citizens in the country. After Palin joined the ticket in late August, McCain then took a double digit lead in the state until October, when polling once again showed a close race between the two candidates in North Dakota.[18]

On Election Day 2008, however, McCain captured North Dakota by a fairly safe margin of approximately 8.65 points, despite the latest polling showing him just one point ahead of Obama.[19] Still, the statewide result was significantly closer than in 2004 when Bush carried the state by a much larger margin of more than 27%.[20] McCain did well throughout the western and central parts of the state, while Obama won the two majority Native American counties of Rolette (which has not voted Republican since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952[21]) in the north and Sioux in the south by more than three-to-one. More significantly, Obama carried several normally Republican counties in the east including the most populous counties of Cass County (which contains the state's largest city of Fargo) and Grand Forks County (which includes the college town of Grand Forks). In these two largest counties in the state, Obama was the first Democratic victor since Lyndon Johnson in 1964,[22] while in rock-ribbed Republican McIntosh County, Obama's 37.79 percent constitutes the best performance by a Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.

At the same time, popular incumbent Republican Governor John Hoeven was reelected to a second term in a landslide three-to-one victory over Democrat Tim Mathern and Independent DuWayne Hendrickson. Hoeven received 74.44% of the vote while Mathern took in 23.53% and Hendrickson with the remaining 2.03%. Democrats, however, made gains at the state level, picking up three seats in the North Dakota House of Representatives and six seats in the North Dakota Senate.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in North Dakota[23]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin168,88753.15%3
Democratic-NPLBarack ObamaJoe Biden141,40344.50%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez4,1991.32%0
Write-insWrite-ins1,1230.35%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root1,0670.34%0
ConstitutionChuck BaldwinDarrell Castle1,0590.33%0
Totals317,738100.00%3
Voter turnout (Voting age population)65.6%

Results by county

County[24] John McCain
Republican		Barack Obama
Democratic-NPL		Ralph Nader
Independent		Bob Barr
Libertarian		Charles Baldwin
Constitution		MarginTotal votes cast
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Adams78862.00%43534.23%292.28%60.47%131.02%35327.77%1,271
Barnes2,82649.63%2,74148.14%661.16%140.25%470.83%851.49%5,694
Benson77332.56%1,56966.09%210.88%50.21%60.25%-796-33.53%2,374
Billings37575.15%11422.85%71.40%30.60%00.00%26152.30%499
Bottineau2,05958.56%1,38739.45%401.14%130.37%170.48%67219.11%3,516
Bowman1,10767.50%47829.15%372.26%50.30%130.79%62938.35%1,640
Burke64067.87%28630.33%111.17%30.32%30.32%35437.54%943
Burleigh25,44360.58%15,60037.14%5131.22%1130.27%1030.25%9,84323.44%41,999
Cass32,56645.34%37,62252.37%7551.05%2700.38%2060.29%-5,056-7.03%71,834
Cavalier1,12852.96%93043.66%562.63%60.28%100.47%1989.30%2,130
Dickey1,52558.21%1,04439.85%341.30%60.23%110.42%48118.36%2,620
Divide63055.70%46441.03%252.21%60.53%60.53%16614.67%1,131
Dunn1,08065.69%52732.06%291.76%30.18%50.30%55333.63%1,644
Eddy54847.04%58350.04%211.80%70.60%60.52%-35-3.00%1,165
Emmons1,23066.96%54629.72%412.23%80.44%120.65%68437.24%1,837
Foster91455.36%68741.61%311.88%80.48%110.67%22713.75%1,651
Golden Valley64273.37%21024.00%141.60%10.11%80.91%43249.37%875
Grand Forks14,52046.34%16,10451.40%3381.08%1100.35%810.26%-1,584-5.06%31,333
Grant87364.91%40530.11%272.01%100.74%80.59%46834.80%1,345
Griggs68251.90%59845.51%261.98%50.38%30.23%846.39%1,314
Hettinger89366.25%40630.12%322.37%90.67%80.59%48736.13%1,348
Kidder75261.24%42234.36%292.36%141.14%110.90%33026.88%1,228
LaMoure1,31058.46%86838.73%411.83%100.45%120.54%44219.73%2,241
Logan72668.68%29928.29%262.46%20.19%40.38%42740.39%1,057
McHenry1,37456.87%98140.60%492.03%60.25%60.25%39316.27%2,416
McIntosh91659.79%57937.79%291.89%20.13%60.39%33722.00%1,532
McKenzie1,74064.09%93334.36%331.22%60.22%30.11%80729.73%2,715
McLean2,76758.42%1,86739.42%751.58%170.36%100.21%90019.00%4,736
Mercer2,78963.43%1,47633.57%892.02%190.43%240.55%1,31329.86%4,397
Morton7,86958.99%5,07938.08%2191.64%540.40%430.32%2,79020.91%13,339
Mountrail1,40647.86%1,47750.27%361.23%60.20%130.44%-71-2.41%2,938
Nelson80045.66%90751.77%321.83%70.40%60.34%-107-6.11%1,752
Oliver68265.58%33231.92%201.92%50.48%10.10%35033.66%1,040
Pembina1,72252.07%1,49445.18%471.42%210.64%230.70%2286.89%3,307
Pierce1,30160.82%79237.03%341.59%40.19%80.37%50923.79%2,139
Ramsey2,36149.58%2,31448.59%571.20%150.31%150.31%470.99%4,762
Ransom99841.02%1,37156.35%431.77%150.62%60.25%-373-15.33%2,433
Renville79959.36%50537.52%292.15%100.74%30.22%29421.84%1,346
Richland3,90051.57%3,51346.45%1071.41%210.28%220.29%3875.12%7,563
Rolette1,04523.05%3,40375.06%531.17%170.37%160.35%-2,358-52.01%4,534
Sargent77840.37%1,11557.86%261.35%40.21%40.21%-337-17.49%1,927
Sheridan55569.12%22928.52%151.87%10.12%30.37%32640.60%803
Sioux21515.60%1,14583.09%120.87%30.22%30.22%-930-67.49%1,378
Slope29772.26%10625.79%40.97%30.73%10.24%19146.47%411
Stark7,02463.13%3,80234.17%1721.55%350.31%370.33%3,22228.96%11,127
Steele40439.15%61459.50%111.07%10.10%20.19%-210-20.35%1,032
Stutsman5,49956.20%4,05641.46%1561.59%270.28%460.47%1,44314.74%9,784
Towner53644.78%62151.88%332.76%10.08%60.50%-85-7.10%1,197
Traill1,84545.66%2,13652.86%431.06%70.17%100.25%-291-7.20%4,041
Walsh2,41549.47%2,32547.62%941.93%200.41%280.57%901.85%4,882
Ward15,06158.45%10,14439.37%2851.11%650.25%660.26%4,91719.08%25,768
Wells1,46861.76%84135.38%431.81%50.21%200.84%62726.38%2,377
Williams6,29167.12%2,92131.16%1041.11%360.38%210.22%3,37035.96%9,373
Totals168,88753.15%141,40344.50%4,1991.32%1,0670.34%1,0590.33%27,4848.65%317,738

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of North Dakota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Dakota is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[25] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[26] [27] [28]

  1. Theresa Tokach - replaced Richard Elkin
  2. Susan Wefald
  3. Leon Helland

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  9. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  10. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  11. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  12. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  13. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=38 Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085834/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=ND&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  16. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  17. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  18. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - North Dakota. 2008-11-19.
  19. News: CNN Election Center 2008 - North Dakota. 2008-11-19.
  20. Web site: Electoral-vote.com. 2008-11-19.
  21. Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
  22. Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, pp. 271-274
  23. Web site: Atlas of U.S. Presidential Election. January 13, 2013.
  24. Web site: ND US President Race, November 04, 2008. Our Campaigns.
  25. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  26. Web site: Secretary of State |.
  27. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008-certificates/vote-north-dakota-01.html U. S. Electoral College 2008 Certificate
  28. http://www.kfyrtv.com/News_Stories.asp?news=25201 KFYR-TV North Dakota's NBC News Leader

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