2008 United States presidential election in Montana explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in Montana
Previous Year:2004
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in Montana
Next Year:2012
Image1:File:John McCain 2009 Official.jpg
Nominee1:John McCain
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Arizona
Running Mate1:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote1:3
Popular Vote1:243,882
Percentage1:49.49%
Nominee2:Barack Obama
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Illinois
Running Mate2:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:232,159
Percentage2:47.11%
Map Size:350px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in Montana took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Montana was won by Republican nominee John McCain by 11,273 votes, a 2.38% margin of victory. Before the election, Montana was initially viewed as safe Republican, but was viewed as lean Republican or toss-up in the final weeks. Historically the state is a Republican stronghold, but polls during the 2008 election showed Democrat Barack Obama just narrowly trailing Republican John McCain within the margin of error. On election day, McCain narrowly carried Montana. It was the fourth-closest state in the nation, behind Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana, Missouri being a former bellwether state, and the other three being traditionally Republican states.

Despite the fact that Bill Clinton carried the state in 1992, Barack Obama's 47.11% of the vote was (and as of 2020 remains) the highest percent of the vote received by any Democratic candidate for president since 1964. Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 and near miss in 1996 were attributed to Ross Perot's strong third party candidacy in 1992 and 1996, the only other elections since 1964 when Montana was decided by under 5%. Obama was able to flip seven of Montana's counties from Republican to Democratic compared to the 2004 election.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 15 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
The New York Times[8]
CNN[9]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[10]
Associated Press[11]
Rasmussen Reports[12]

Polling

Although Republican George W. Bush of Texas carried Montana by double digits in both 2000 and 2004, polls taken throughout July indicated a close race between Republican John McCain of Arizona and Democrat Barack Obama of Illinois. When Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska was announced as McCain's running mate in late August, however, McCain took a double-digit lead in the state that lasted until the middle of October, when polling once again showed the two candidates within striking distance of each other in the state. When the actual 2008 presidential election took place, McCain carried the state by about 2.38%.[13] The state's results were significantly closer than they were in the 2004 election when George W. Bush carried the state by a margin of 20 points.[14]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $386,940 in the state. Barack Obama raised $1,089,874.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,732,467. McCain and his interest groups spent just $134,805.[16] The Democratic ticket visited the state three times and McCain didn't visit the state.[17]

Analysis

Montana, a Republican-leaning state, has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1968 except in 1992 when the state narrowly supported Democrat Bill Clinton to Republican George H. W. Bush.

Obama did very well among the Democratic base of Montana, which consists of three sections. Students in Missoula County, which is home to the University of Montana, helped him win a three-to-two margin there. In the southwest, Obama won more than 65% of the vote in Deer Lodge County and Silver Bow County—Democratic strongholds which have voted Republican only twice since 1912; Obama also became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Gallatin County, home to Bozeman, since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. Finally, Native Americans gave Obama strong support; in the eastern part of the state, Obama only won counties in which Native Americans composed at least 30% of the population.

McCain's base was in the eastern part of the state, which is less unionized and more rural. It is home to more ranchers and fewer miners than elsewhere. Only five counties voted Democratic in the east. In Western Montana, McCain generally won wherever Obama's Democratic base was lacking. His biggest margins came from the region bordering the GOP bastion of Idaho.

There was also a relatively high third-party vote, totaling around four percent. The Montana Constitution Party ran libertarian-leaning Republican U.S. Representative Ron Paul of Texas on their line (against his wishes), winning 2.17% of the vote in Montana, which was the highest statewide percentage total for any third-party candidate in the 2008 presidential election. A significant number of write-in candidates also ran in the state, with some beating third-party candidates.

During the same election, incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was reelected to a second term in a landslide over Republican Roy Brown and Libertarian Stan Jones. Winning by more than a two-to-one margin, Schweitzer received 65.21% of the vote while Brown took in 32.77% and Jones got 2.03%. Also during the same election, incumbent Democratic Senator Max Baucus was handily reelected to a sixth term over perennial candidate Bob Kelleher running as a Republican, no third-party candidate was in the race. Due to Kelleher's policies, such as adopting a parliamentary system in the United States, adopting a single-payer healthcare system, and nationalizing American oil and gas industries, he received no support from Montana GOP, and Baucus defeated Kelleher by nearly a 3-to-1 margin, taking in 72.92% over Kelleher's 27.08% and winning every single county in the state. At the state level, however, Republicans picked up three seats in the Montana Senate and gained control of the chamber. Democrats picked up the office of Secretary of State.

, this is the last election where Montana was seriously contested, as well as the last one in which Lake County, Cascade County, Rosebud County, and Lewis and Clark County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is the last time the Big Sky Country would be decided by a single-digit margin, and the last time a candidate won the state with less than half of the vote. Obama became the first ever Democrat to win the White House without carrying Mineral or Sheridan Counties.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Montana[18]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin243,88249.49%3
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden232,15947.11%0
ConstitutionRon Paul (no campaign)Michael Peroutka10,6692.17%0
IndependentRalph NaderMatt Gonzalez3,6990.75%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root1,3580.28%0
(write-in)Write-in candidates8170.17%0
ConstitutionChuck Baldwin (write-in)Darrell Castle1430.03%0
GreenCynthia McKinney (write-in)Rosa Clemente230.00%0
Totals492,750100.00%3
Voter turnout (Voting age population)67.4%

By county

CountyJohn McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
%%%%
Beaverhead3,00863.15%1,61733.95%1382.90%1,39129.20%4,763
Big Horn1,62831.19%3,51667.37%751.44%-1,888-36.18%5,219
Blaine1,13938.93%1,70258.17%852.90%-563-19.24%2,926
Broadwater1,87566.80%85730.53%752.67%1,01836.27%2,807
Carbon3,10854.05%2,44342.49%1993.46%66511.56%5,750
Carter57379.36%11115.37%385.27%46263.99%722
Cascade16,85747.62%17,66449.90%8752.48%-807-2.28%35,396
Chouteau1,63457.11%1,12239.22%1053.67%51217.89%2,861
Custer3,04755.89%2,26741.58%1382.53%78014.31%5,452
Daniels69464.68%34331.97%363.35%35132.71%1,073
Dawson2,63959.38%1,59335.85%2124.77%1,04623.53%4,444
Deer Lodge1,50229.60%3,40267.05%1703.35%-1,900-37.45%5,074
Fallon1,06474.25%31822.19%513.56%74652.06%1,433
Fergus4,10865.92%1,93331.02%1913.06%2,17534.90%6,232
Flathead25,55958.43%16,13836.89%2,0474.68%9,42121.54%43,744
Gallatin22,57846.77%24,20550.14%1,4893.09%-1,627-3.37%48,272
Garfield59882.26%11015.13%192.61%48867.13%727
Glacier1,45129.19%3,42368.86%971.95%-1,972-39.67%4,971
Golden Valley34369.72%12425.20%255.08%21944.52%492
Granite1,01358.96%60134.98%1046.06%41223.98%1,718
Hill2,78742.07%3,59654.28%2423.65%-809-12.21%6,625
Jefferson3,53855.80%2,58240.72%2213.48%95615.08%6,341
Judith Basin80164.81%39732.12%383.07%40432.69%1,236
Lake6,49846.56%6,76648.48%6924.96%-268-1.92%13,956
Lewis and Clark14,96645.31%17,11451.82%9492.87%-2,148-6.51%33,029
Liberty59459.34%36736.66%404.00%22722.68%1,001
Lincoln5,70461.82%3,02532.78%4985.40%2,67929.04%9,227
Madison2,82261.78%1,60735.18%1393.04%1,21526.60%4,568
McCone72666.54%32129.42%444.04%40537.12%1,091
Meagher62464.60%29830.85%444.55%32633.75%966
Mineral1,05352.73%84542.31%994.96%20810.42%1,997
Missoula20,74334.99%36,53161.63%2,0033.38%-15,788-26.64%59,277
Musselshell1,58168.56%63627.58%893.86%94540.98%2,306
Park4,37649.18%4,17346.90%3493.92%2032.28%8,898
Petroleum22775.67%6822.67%51.66%15953.00%300
Phillips1,42367.03%63830.05%622.92%78536.98%2,123
Pondera1,58855.04%1,22342.39%742.57%36512.65%2,885
Powder River80277.26%20820.04%282.70%59457.22%1,038
Powell1,68359.81%1,02136.28%1103.91%66223.53%2,814
Prairie50368.44%21128.71%212.85%29239.73%735
Ravalli13,00258.83%8,40038.01%6993.16%4,60220.82%22,101
Richland3,18470.50%1,20326.64%1292.86%1,98143.86%4,516
Roosevelt1,47335.47%2,56461.74%1162.79%-1,091-26.27%4,153
Rosebud1,76846.40%1,91950.37%1233.23%-151-3.97%3,810
Sanders3,56360.72%1,97033.57%3355.71%1,59327.15%5,868
Sheridan98749.20%95347.51%663.29%341.69%2,006
Silver Bow4,81828.27%11,67668.51%5483.22%-6,858-40.24%17,042
Stillwater2,99164.09%1,51232.40%1643.51%1,47931.69%4,667
Sweet Grass1,49471.72%54125.97%482.31%95345.75%2,083
Teton1,87457.27%1,29439.55%1043.18%58017.72%3,272
Toole1,31762.09%73734.75%673.16%58027.34%2,121
Treasure31464.61%15632.10%163.29%15832.51%486
Valley2,12154.23%1,64542.06%1453.71%47612.17%3,911
Wheatland65766.84%28929.40%373.76%36837.44%983
Wibaux37967.32%14625.93%386.75%23341.39%563
Yellowstone36,48351.62%32,03845.33%2,1583.05%4,4456.29%70,679
Totals243,88249.49%232,15947.11%16,7093.39%11,7232.38%492,750

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated, the At-Large District. This district covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Montana cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Montana is allocated 3 electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 3 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[20]

  1. Thelma Baker
  2. John Brenden
  3. Errol Galt

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  9. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  10. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  11. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  12. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  13. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Montana. 2008-11-26.
  14. Web site: Electoral-vote.com. 2008-11-26.
  15. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085822/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=MT&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  16. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  17. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . 2010-05-26.
  18. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . 2012-12-29.
  19. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  20. Web site: Archived copy . November 11, 2008 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081107175751/http://sos.mt.gov/ELB/archives/2008/voters/2008_Presidential_Electors.pdf . November 7, 2008 .